A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Jack Flap]

It's closer when you only count seasons 2014 on (which are probably more important). However, Giancarlo IS definitely a much better bet than JD. My only worry is that you would have to give up something of value to get him. If it's a few be level prospects, it's a good option.

 

I don't think the difference between them is as gigantic as some seem to, but these are basically my thoughts as well. Getting Stanton would be fantastic, but it would all depend on what we have to give up.

[mvp 78]

yes.

 

Holy cannoli!

 

I can't hate you for it. I've been known to have my own unpopular opinions.

[mvp 78]

lol...no DFA. but i would trade him for my man crush.

 

If you trade Sale, who would you sign/trade for to start?

[Slasher9]

If you trade Sale, who would you sign/trade for to start?

 

my other crush. cueto.

(gun to my head i am NOT trading Sale for Stanton)......(but i would still try and get cueto either way)....

[Slasher9]

See the second sentence in the post directly above yours.

 

100% if we trade anyone on the 40 man for him he HAS to waive his no trade.

[mvp 78]

my other crush. cueto.

(gun to my head i am NOT trading Sale for Stanton)......(but i would still try and get cueto either way)....

 

I think DD may do that too (or at least sign some starter). Too many questions concerning the health of Price and ERod. No clue on what Wright can provide. Porcello may just be a 4th starter. What if Pom's 2017 was a fluke? Etc.

[moonslav59]

Duda doesn't have Moreland's glove though. I think I'd rather have Moreland than Duda short term.

 

I'm not high on Duda, but he has great power numbers, especially vs RHPs.

 

He'll be very cheap and probably get just 1 year. If HRam can play 1B, he could be a good option that allows us to spend more money on other holes.

 

I'll take Duda over Moreland.

 

I'll take Duda and a big name over Hosmer alone.

Edited November 9, 2017 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

I was born too long ago to see this kind of contract as realistic. Too long and too much money. The guy is good offensively now but certainly no defensive force. We probably can't get him for 3 or 4 years at most, but if so, we should let someone else take him on.

 

I agree. This kind of contract is crazy talk. Of course, Boras is just blowing a lot of smoke right now, but if JD is going to get anything close to that, then I say pass.

[Kimmi]

I'll predict Lester money for JDM - 6 years, 155 million.

 

That sounds reasonable as to what he will get. I would not sign him for that, but I think he'll get it.

[Kimmi]

If it's Beni for Stanton, would Marlins have to eat some salary?

 

Yes, absolutely.

[moonslav59]

Here's a wing-dinger....

 

Trade Bogey for prospects & flip them and possibly others for Stanton.

(add $17M to luxury tax budget)

 

Trade Porcello ($20.6M x 2) & JBJ (~$6M arb in 2018) for Cueto ($21.7M x 4) and Moore ($9M option 2018 & $10M option 2018- each with $1M buyout)

(add $4M to luxury budget)

 

Sign Cozart to $42M/3 (add $14M x 3)

 

Sign B Shaw to $21M/3 (add $7M x 3)

 

Sign Duda to $6M x 1

 

Total additions to luxury budget: $48M in 2018.

 

2018 Roster:

 

1. Betts RF

2. Beni CF

3. Cozart SS

4. Stanton LF

5. Devers 3B

6. Duda DH/HRam 1B

7. HRam 1B/Duda DH or

8. Pedey 2B

9. Vaz C

 

SP: Sale, Price, Cueto, Pom, Moore, ERod, Wright

RP: Kimbrel, Shaw, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Maddox, Scott

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Cueto and Moore are on my no fly list. Moore cannot keep the ball in the park and Cueto looked washed up in a pitchers park in 2017.

[moonslav59]

Cueto and Moore are on my no fly list. Moore cannot keep the ball in the park and Cueto looked washed up in a pitchers park in 2017.

 

So did Porcello.

[Spudboy]

About the Marlins eating any of Stanton's contract. I kind of doubt that they would want another big contract back to offset and I don't think they will swallow any of Stanton's deal either.

 

The Statue has clearly said that the Marlins must get down to 90 mil so they need to shed 40 mil.

 

It would be almost impossible to reach 90 mil without shedding the entire Stanton contract.

 

Of course Jetter could have his head up his ass.

 

Who knows?

[notin]

my other crush. cueto.

(gun to my head i am NOT trading Sale for Stanton)......(but i would still try and get cueto either way)....

 

Cueto is owed like $92million over the next 4 seasons and is coming off a season where he had a 4.52ERA in a National League pitcher's park. No way he opts out and no way is he worth trading for. The Sox shouldn't even trade Rusney Castillo for him straight up. ...

[notin]

I think DD may do that too (or at least sign some starter). Too many questions concerning the health of Price and ERod. No clue on what Wright can provide. Porcello may just be a 4th starter. What if Pom's 2017 was a fluke? Etc.

 

Really the only question is Price.

 

ERod is out for a while. Porcello probably is a 3-4 starter. Pomeranz was equally good in 2016 as he was in 2017.

 

And none of these guys is as big of a question mark as Cueto. ..

[Slasher9]

Really the only question is Price.

 

ERod is out for a while. Porcello probably is a 3-4 starter. Pomeranz was equally good in 2016 as he was in 2017.

 

And none of these guys is as big of a question mark as Cueto. ..

i think Price is going to be really solid next season.

i also think cueto would thrive in the Boston environment.

but i also believe that players can raise (and lower) their efforts/abilities/desire/focus based on the situation they are in......

[moonslav59]

About the Marlins eating any of Stanton's contract. I kind of doubt that they would want another big contract back to offset and I don't think they will swallow any of Stanton's deal either.

 

The Statue has clearly said that the Marlins must get down to 90 mil so they need to shed 40 mil.

 

It would be almost impossible to reach 90 mil without shedding the entire Stanton contract.

 

Of course Jetter could have his head up his ass.

 

Who knows?

 

They were talking about trading Stanton plus one or two from Gordon or Prado. If that's the case, then they can pay part of Stanton's deal, but I doubt it will be much.

 

I think the fact that the Sox can pay his full salary and the luxury tax is "just" $25M gives us a leg up on many teams with better prospects to trade.

[moonslav59]

Cueto is owed like $92million over the next 4 seasons and is coming off a season where he had a 4.52ERA in a National League pitcher's park. No way he opts out and no way is he worth trading for. The Sox shouldn't even trade Rusney Castillo for him straight up. ...

 

I think he already announced he's not opting out.

 

I don't think 2017 is all we should look sat with Cueto, but certainly, it's concerning.

[moonslav59]

Just throwing something out here...

 

Trade:

HRam (18:$22M, 19:$22M vesting option) $22M luxury tax hit

Porcello (18:$21M, 19:$21M) $20.6M luxury tax hit

Chavis (prospect)

JBJ ($5.9M arb projection with 2 more to go after 2018)

Total 2018 luxury tax hit: $48.5M

 

For:

Felix Hernandez (18:$26M, 19:$27M, 20:$1M conditional club option) $25M luxury tax hit

Nelson Cruz (18:$14M) $143.M luxury tax hit

Total Luxury Tax Hit: $39M

 

We gain $9.5M on our 2018 spending budget and get our clean-up hitter.

 

Seattle gets 3 years of JBJ and a cheaper SP'er in Porcello over Felix. They also get a power-hitting prospect. The drop off from Cruz to HRam might be the deal buster, so I guess it depends on how much they like JBJ at arb salary rates.

 

We could use the money to go out and sign JD to DH or trade for Stanton to DH PLUS sign Santana or Moose to solve the 1B issue.

 

1. Bogey SS

2. Betts RF

3. Martinez LF/DH

4. Cruz DH/LF

5. Beni CF

6. Santana 1B

7. Devers 3B

8. Pedey 2B

9. Vaz C

 

(I'llk wait for harmony to shoot me down hard.)

 

 

[moonslav59]

Projected arb salaries:

 

Joe Kelly – $3.6MM

Drew Pomeranz – $9.1MM

Tyler Thornburg – $2.1MM

Brock Holt – $2.0MM

Xander Bogaerts – $7.6MM

Jackie Bradley – $5.9MM

Sandy Leon – $2.1MM

Steven Wright – $1.2MM

Mookie Betts – $8.2MM

Brandon Workman – $900K

Christian Vazquez – $1.5MM

Carson Smith – $1.1MM

Eduardo Rodriguez – $2.7MM

 

[OH FOY]

Holt got 1.95 this past year, I think he'll get more than that.

[moonslav59]

Holt got 1.95 this past year, I think he'll get more than that.

 

I'm not sure. He had a .548 OPS and missed a lot of time.

 

I get the fact that the next arb year means an auto raise, but if ever there was a player that did not deserve one based on previous year performance, it would be Brock.

 

I'm thinking at $2M, we might want to trade him, but with Pedey out and no 4th OF'er at the moment, I'd hold off.

[sk7326]

I think they go one-year at a time with Bradley and Rodriguez ... try to get a 6 year extension for a reasonable amount ($150M would be reasonable) for Betts ... Bogaerts season (and how much of it was injury related) almost forces the Red Sox to just make a deal for next year.

 

Explore a short pre-arb extension with Pomeranz although I am not that moved either direction

[moonslav59]

I think they go one-year at a time with Bradley and Rodriguez ... try to get a 6 year extension for a reasonable amount ($150M would be reasonable) for Betts ... Bogaerts season (and how much of it was injury related) almost forces the Red Sox to just make a deal for next year.

 

Explore a short pre-arb extension with Pomeranz although I am not that moved either direction

 

One problem with signing an extension before the arbs run out is the impact on the luxury tax.

 

It can lessen the tax impact in later years, if the overall cost is lower due to including arb year deductions.

[harmony]

Just throwing something out here...

 

Trade:

HRam (18:$22M, 19:$22M vesting option) $22M luxury tax hit

Porcello (18:$21M, 19:$21M) $20.6M luxury tax hit

Chavis (prospect)

JBJ ($5.9M arb projection with 2 more to go after 2018)

Total 2018 luxury tax hit: $48.5M

 

For:

Felix Hernandez (18:$26M, 19:$27M, 20:$1M conditional club option) $25M luxury tax hit

Nelson Cruz (18:$14M) $143.M luxury tax hit

Total Luxury Tax Hit: $39M

 

We gain $9.5M on our 2018 spending budget and get our clean-up hitter.

 

Seattle gets 3 years of JBJ and a cheaper SP'er in Porcello over Felix. They also get a power-hitting prospect. The drop off from Cruz to HRam might be the deal buster, so I guess it depends on how much they like JBJ at arb salary rates.

 

We could use the money to go out and sign JD to DH or trade for Stanton to DH PLUS sign Santana or Moose to solve the 1B issue.

 

1. Bogey SS

2. Betts RF

3. Martinez LF/DH

4. Cruz DH/LF

5. Beni CF

6. Santana 1B

7. Devers 3B

8. Pedey 2B

9. Vaz C

 

(I'llk wait for harmony to shoot me down hard.)

 

 

That's an interesting proposal but I doubt the Mariners will trade their two most popular players.

 

Granted, the Felix Hernandez contract is underwater with $53 million remaining over two years after the 31-year-old righthander posted only 1.4 fWAR, valued at $11.3 million, over the last two seasons. Seattle fans can pray for a Verlander-type renaissance but Steamer projects Hernandez with a modest 2018 WAR of 2.0 in 28 starts. Justin Verlander, who is three years older and who now has more MLB innings, has been a convenient comp since the righthanders signed similar same-duration extensions within weeks of each other in 2010 and again in 2013.

 

The Seattle front office hopes to reward the iconic Hernandez for his loyalty with a postseason appearance by the Mariners. But this is the same franchise that traded away Ken Griffey Jr., Ichiro and Randy Johnson.

 

Only Nelson Cruz rivals Hernandez for a presence in the Seattle clubhouse.

 

In the final months of 2014, Seattle signed Cruz to a four-year, $57 million contract while Boston signed Hanley Ramirez to a four-year, $88 million contract with a vesting option for a fifth year at $22 million. In the ensuing three seasons Cruz has posted 12.8 fWAR, valued at $102.4 million, while Ramirez has posted 0.6 fWAR, valued at $3.3 million. Streamer projects 2018 WAR of 2.6 for Cruz and 1.0 for Ramirez.

 

Indeed the drop-off would be among the deal-breakers.

 

The window may be closing for Seattle so Cruz will likely remain a Mariner in 2018. The M's may well have an interest in Jackie Bradley Jr. (and even Rick Porcello) but not at that price.

 

I've probably written too much already.

Edited November 10, 2017 by harmony

[moonslav59]

That's an interesting proposal but I doubt the Mariners will trade their two most popular players.

 

Granted, the Felix Hernandez contract is underwater with $53 million remaining over two years after the 31-year-old righthander posted only 1.4 fWAR, valued at $11.3 million, over the last two seasons. Seattle fans can pray for a Verlander-type renaissance but Steamer projects Hernandez with a modest 2018 WAR of 2.0 in 28 starts. Justin Verlander, who is three years older and who now has more MLB innings, has been a convenient comp since the righthanders signed similar extensions within weeks of each other in 2010 and 2013.

 

The Seattle front office hopes to reward the iconic Hernandez for his loyalty with a postseason appearance by the Mariners. But this is the same franchise that traded away Ken Griffey Jr., Ichiro and Randy Johnson.

 

Only Nelson Cruz rivals Hernandez for a presence in the Seattle clubhouse.

 

In the final months of 2014, Seattle signed Cruz to a four-year, $57 million contract while Boston signed Hanley Ramirez to a four-year, $88 million contract with a vesting option for a fifth year at $22 million. In the ensuing three seasons Cruz has posted 12.8 fWAR, valued at $102.4 million, while Ramirez has posted 0.6 fWAR, valued at $3.3 million. Streamer projects 2018 WAR of 2.6 for Cruz and 1.0 for Ramirez.

 

Indeed the drop-off would be among the deal-breakers.

 

The window may be closing for Seattle so Cruz will likely remain a Mariner in 2018. The M's may well have an interest in Jackie Bradley Jr. (and even Rick Porcello) but not at that price.

 

I've probably written too much already.

 

They do get Chavis, too. He may replace Cruz (HRam) at DH in 2019, so 2 years of Porcello, 3 years of JBJ and 5 years of Chavis for one year of Cruz and 3 years of Felix.

 

I agree, that upside may not outweigh the downside of losing two iconic Mariners. I think it's close.

 

I'm curious what Sox fans think of this.

[cp176]

I don't have any idea how they will work out the particulars, but I will be very surprised if the hard play isn't for Martinez. Just read Bradford's article and sounds to me as though he would be just what the doctor ordered. Sign him and then figure out what to do with him as well as the others. I am not sold at all on Benintendi moving to center and trading Bradley but who knows. You want good people in that dugout. After what happened last year, we need real people who actually get it in there.

[harmony]

They do get Chavis, too. He may replace Cruz (HRam) at DH in 2019, so 2 years of Porcello, 3 years of JBJ and 5 years of Chavis for one year of Cruz and 3 years of Felix.

 

I agree, that upside may not outweigh the downside of losing two iconic Mariners. I think it's close.

 

I'm curious what Sox fans think of this.

I doubt the Mariners have any interest in Michael Chavis, a 22-year-old fringe prospect with a 25.3 % strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate in a minor league career that has yet to reach Triple A. In July the Mariners traded away their same-age, strikeout-prone, righthand-hitting slugger in outfield prospect Tyler O'Neill, who is ranked higher than Chavis on the MLB.com prospect list:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017

Edited November 10, 2017 by harmony

[moonslav59]

I don't have any idea how they will work out the particulars, but I will be very surprised if the hard play isn't for Martinez. Just read Bradford's article and sounds to me as though he would be just what the doctor ordered. Sign him and then figure out what to do with him as well as the others. I am not sold at all on Benintendi moving to center and trading Bradley but who knows. You want good people in that dugout. After what happened last year, we need real people who actually get it in there.

 

They are saying HRam will be good to go at 1B, so JD could DH and be our 4th OF'er. It's actually a nice fit, as long as HRam can play 1B.

 

I still might give JD some reps at 1B- just in case. He might also play there in NL parks, so we don't have to sit an OF'er.