A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Jack Flap]

Another reason why trading for Giancarlo is the priority

 

I don't really follow this logic, as Giancarlo will cost more years and money plus giving up some sort of talent as well. I certainly wouldn't rule it out if the trade cost isn't too bad, but I still think JD is a fit. Just because Boras' first ask is $200 million doesn't mean he's getting it.

[moonslav59]

Most Power since 2014 (Active players with 1500+ PAs)

 

ISO

1. Stanton .301

2. Trout .278

3. JD Martinez .274

8. Donaldson .254

11. Harper .242

12. Duda .242

18. Votto .227

22. Bautista .226

23. Abreu .224

25. Frazier .221

29. Machado .213

36. Valbuena .207

37. Napoli .207

41. Granderson .205

45. Mostakas .201

49. Santana .199

52. Morrison .196

63. Moreland .187

 

114. Hosmer .160

 

SLG%

2. JDM .574

3. Stanton .573

10. Donaldson .531

12. Abreu .524

32. Duda .480

50. Frazier .464

56. Moustakas .459

66. Hosmer .449

73. Santana .445

86. Morrison .438

 

 

2016-2017 (650+ PAs)

ISO

1. Judge

2. Stanton

3. JD M

7 Donaldson

12 Bruce

13. Duda

18. Moustakas

32. Grandy

37 Morrison

41 Frazier

53 Santana

67 Abreu

72 Cozart

101 Moreland

139 out of 253 Hosmer

 

SLG

1. JD M

11. Donaldson

22. Moustakas

26. Abreu

29 Bruce

63. Santana

69. Morrison

70. Duda

88. Hosmer

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

I'm not saying I love the guy, but for about $6M/1, we could probably get Duda and hope HRam can play 1B. Spend the rest of the money on pitching and a 4th OF'er and wait until next year.

[oldtimer]

I'm not saying I love the guy, but for about $6M/1, we could probably get Duda and hope HRam can play 1B. Spend the rest of the money on pitching and a 4th OF'er and wait until next year.

 

The Sox do have some holes to fill and some moves to consider, in addition to the pitching needs.

 

Holes to fill exist at second and first base. In addition there is a need for at least one power bat. Those two might be combined to some degree. Both Pedey and Hanley are question marks. Clearly we could go with the resources we currently have on the 40 man or injured list for 2nd but at risk of less than stellar offense. Ist is more of an open issue, especially if we use Hanley for DH only.

 

The moves to consider have been discussed ad infinitum already. They are:

 

1. Move Devers to 1st and look for a replacement this year at 3rd. Possible improvement to the IF defense and possible addition of a solid bat.

 

2. Move JBJ and look for a trade or FA to fill in the OF. Possible strengthening of the offense while taking a hit on defense.

 

3. Move Bogey for a replacement SS like Cozart. Slightly better fielding and hitting. I'm opposed to that move as I believe Bogey can make a significant improvement on offense.

 

4. Trade Holt and replace him with another super utility player like Nunez (might solve 2nd base issue) or fill in from our 40 man or ML rosters.

 

Big long term contracts for aging stars should be considered as too risky with great younger players available next year.

[moonslav59]

The Sox do have some holes to fill and some moves to consider, in addition to the pitching needs.

 

Holes to fill exist at second and first base. In addition there is a need for at least one power bat. Those two might be combined to some degree. Both Pedey and Hanley are question marks. Clearly we could go with the resources we currently have on the 40 man or injured list for 2nd but at risk of less than stellar offense. Ist is more of an open issue, especially if we use Hanley for DH only.

 

The moves to consider have been discussed ad infinitum already. They are:

 

1. Move Devers to 1st and look for a replacement this year at 3rd. Possible improvement to the IF defense and possible addition of a solid bat.

 

2. Move JBJ and look for a trade or FA to fill in the OF. Possible strengthening of the offense while taking a hit on defense.

 

3. Move Bogey for a replacement SS like Cozart. Slightly better fielding and hitting. I'm opposed to that move as I believe Bogey can make a significant improvement on offense.

 

4. Trade Holt and replace him with another super utility player like Nunez (might solve 2nd base issue) or fill in from our 40 man or ML rosters.

 

Big long term contracts for aging stars should be considered as too risky with great younger players available next year.

 

I don't think we'll spend large on a temporary fix at 2B. I think we go with Hernandez/Holt/Lin/Marrero and look for a Nunez type, if they fizzle out.

 

I think a legitimate clean-up hitter is our number one priority. I do NOT think Duda is that guy, but he's a better power hitter than Moreland was, and he's cheap. If we can spend the rest of the available money on a SP'er, RP'er and 4th OF'er (maybe with some pop as well), that might be enough.

[mvp 78]

There is no Dana, only Zuul.

 

Here's his slugging since 2014: 553/535/535/690. Seems pretty consistent until last year when his hard contact % increased to 49%.

 

RBI is a garbage stat that is only reflective on how good of an offense you have in front of you.

[mvp 78]

JD is the headliner bat on the market. But he's the type of hitter that whoever signs will regret and try to trade in 3 or 4 years.

 

He soon turns 31 years old, basically the same age Hanley Ramirez was when he signed in Boston. Prior to Boston, Hanley had a better career than JD. He came here for fewer years and less money than JD wants. And most fans want his shorter deal gone already, to the point where many advocate signing Lucas Duda or Logan Morrison in order to steal playing time and stop Hanley's option from vesting...

 

A better comp for JD is Jose Bautista.

[mvp 78]

I don't really follow this logic, as Giancarlo will cost more years and money plus giving up some sort of talent as well. I certainly wouldn't rule it out if the trade cost isn't too bad, but I still think JD is a fit. Just because Boras' first ask is $200 million doesn't mean he's getting it.

 

I think they should try to kick the tires on both.

[mvp 78]

I'm not saying I love the guy, but for about $6M/1, we could probably get Duda and hope HRam can play 1B. Spend the rest of the money on pitching and a 4th OF'er and wait until next year.

 

Duda is a platoon guy. I only go for him if you can get him at platoon DH prices.

[OH FOY]

I'm not high on any FA's now with QO's, especially now 200 Million on Martinez. Need a Trade. Looks like FA's are using HR's to jack up the price.

[moonslav59]

Duda is a platoon guy. I only go for him if you can get him at platoon DH prices.

 

He's about 50 points better than Moreland vs RHPs and 25 points worse vs LHP.

 

Yes, a platoon is best, but he's better than Moreland overall.

 

We could maybe "rest" HRam vs RHPs more often than is needed, assuming we sign a 1B/OF type and Duda.

[moonslav59]

I'm not high on any FA's now with QO's, especially now 200 Million on Martinez. Need a Trade. Looks like FA's are using HR's to jack up the price.

 

Nobody has paid the "price" yet.

 

I keep hearing there's a premium on power hitter- maybe for the Sox, but to me, power hitters are everywhere now.

 

Supply and demand should be showing the cost going down on power hitters.

[Slasher9]

I don't really follow this logic, as Giancarlo will cost more years and money plus giving up some sort of talent as well. I certainly wouldn't rule it out if the trade cost isn't too bad, but I still think JD is a fit. Just because Boras' first ask is $200 million doesn't mean he's getting it.

 

because Giancarlo is 1 billion times better than JD for not much more $.

WAR since 2011:

Giancarlo: 32.3

JD: 13.7

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not high on any FA's now with QO's, especially now 200 Million on Martinez. Need a Trade. Looks like FA's are using HR's to jack up the price.

 

No QO with Martinez - because he was traded in 2017.

[mvp 78]

because Giancarlo is 1 billion times better than JD for not much more $.

WAR since 2011:

Giancarlo: 32.3

JD: 13.7

 

It's closer when you only count seasons 2014 on (which are probably more important). However, Giancarlo IS definitely a much better bet than JD. My only worry is that you would have to give up something of value to get him. If it's a few be level prospects, it's a good option.

[notin]

A better comp for JD is Jose Bautista.

 

Based on what? Hope?

 

Or are you saying that Martinez will struggle to maintain an .800 OPS after 3 years?

 

The latter point is probably true and the entire point I wss making. Martinez is a short term answer thst requires a long term commitment. And also likely requires breaking up one of the biggest strengths on this team.

 

Let him sign elsewhere...

[mvp 78]

He's about 50 points better than Moreland vs RHPs and 25 points worse vs LHP.

 

Yes, a platoon is best, but he's better than Moreland overall.

 

We could maybe "rest" HRam vs RHPs more often than is needed, assuming we sign a 1B/OF type and Duda.

 

Duda doesn't have Moreland's glove though. I think I'd rather have Moreland than Duda short term.

[mvp 78]

Based on what? Hope?

 

Or are you saying that Martinez will struggle to maintain an .800 OPS after 3 years?

 

The latter point is probably true and the entire point I wss making. Martinez is a short term answer thst requires a long term commitment. And also likely requires breaking up one of the biggest strengths on this team.

 

Let him sign elsewhere...

 

Based on their career trajectories. Both were late bloomers. I think JD will still be a great offensive force for 4-5 years. It just depends on if you want to eat the last few years of his deal as he declines.

 

Also, isn't every trade or FA signing based on hope? Hope that the player wont break down. Hope that they'll fit in the Boston market.

[Slasher9]

It's closer when you only count seasons 2014 on (which are probably more important). However, Giancarlo IS definitely a much better bet than JD. My only worry is that you would have to give up something of value to get him. If it's a few be level prospects, it's a good option.

they can pick any one from our 40.

since 2014: 20.3 vs 15.2

[mvp 78]

they can pick any one from our 40.

since 2014: 20.3 vs 15.2

 

Mookie Betts for Stanton?

[Carpin]

Mookie Betts for Stanton?

 

or Chris Sale?

[mvp 78]

or Chris Sale?

 

Worthless down the stretch and in the playoffs! DFA.

[Carpin]

Worthless down the stretch and in the playoffs! DFA.

 

lol

 

good one!!!!!

[mvp 78]

If it's Beni for Stanton, would Marlins have to eat some salary?

[S5Dewey]

If it's Beni for Stanton, would Marlins have to eat some salary?

 

This is a logical trade I could get behind but ONLY of Stanton tears up the opt-out clause. In fact, unless Stanton want's to give that up I'm not interested in him. Thinking about going into 2021 without Stanton OR Benintendi could make me a believer in the cliff. :-(

[Slasher9]

Mookie Betts for Stanton?

 

yes. and i know i am probably the only person on planet earth that would do this trade.

[Slasher9]

or Chris Sale?

 

yes.

[S5Dewey]

yes. and i know i am probably the only person on planet earth that would do this trade.

 

See the second sentence in the post directly above yours.

[Slasher9]

Worthless down the stretch and in the playoffs! DFA.

 

lol...no DFA. but i would trade him for my man crush.

[Jack Flap]

If it's Beni for Stanton, would Marlins have to eat some salary?

 

I should f***ing hope so...but I think I'd rather take the full contract and give up less.