A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Slasher9]

$25M + $11.7M = $36.7M added to the luxury tax budget.

 

Not happening.

 

not likely for sure. but with the tax reset....a slim chance.

[sk7326]

I don't know what they're going to do about Castillo. I agree it's a shame if he gets stuck in tax purgatory. I would think if he continues to really kick ass he'll get out of that purgatory somehow.

 

Cora and he are very close ... I could see him up for another spin.

[Carpin]

I just read that the Cubs are getting Chili Davis and Butterfield

[moonslav59]

I just read that the Cubs are getting Chili Davis and Butterfield

 

Yup

[oldtimer]

I just read that the Cubs are getting Chili Davis and Butterfield

 

Thats fine with me. So with Carl Willis also leaving we will have major changes in the coaching. We have to wait for the World Series to end before Cora will have time to get his guys lined up.

[a700hitter]

I just read that the Cubs are getting Chili Davis and Butterfield

Take our medical staff too.

[oldtimer]

I don't know what they're going to do about Castillo. I agree it's a shame if he gets stuck in tax purgatory. I would think if he continues to really kick ass he'll get out of that purgatory somehow.

 

His problem is an artifact of the way the Luxury Tax is set up and nothing more. The Sox are paying the money and he would no doubt get a chance to be our 4th outfielder except for the luxury tax considerations. I wonder how many other players have the same problem.

[Bellhorn04]

His problem is an artifact of the way the Luxury Tax is set up and nothing more. The Sox are paying the money and he would no doubt get a chance to be our 4th outfielder except for the luxury tax considerations. I wonder how many other players have the same problem.

 

I think he's the only one, because they changed the rules after the Red Sox removed him from the 40 man roster.

[Spudboy]

I wonder what other teams have players making $11. mil. a year playing in the minors?

[FredLynn]

Take our medical staff too.

 

And while we are at it can we give the Yankees one of our former managers, Bobby Valentine?

[a700hitter]

Chili Davis, Brian Butterfield and Carl Willis --all "good baseball men" and more importantly none are a threat to become manager and they can hold their beer.

[moonslav59]

I wonder what other teams have players making $11. mil. a year playing in the minors?

 

The Pablo deal is worse. We are paying $19M, and it counts against the luxury tax.

 

I'm not aware of any team paying a minor league player more than $11.7M.

[moonslav59]

Luxury Tax...

 

A club exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax threshold for the first time must pay a 20 percent tax on all overages. A club exceeding the threshold for a second consecutive season will see that figure rise to 30 percent, and three or more straight seasons of exceeding the threshold comes with a 50 percent luxury tax. If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold.

 

Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax. Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s).

 

Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

 

I had originally thought going over by $20M was the trigger to a lower draft pick, but it's actually $40M.

 

Maybe Castillo does have a chance at making the 25 man roster. Also, a 20% tax on about $12M is not much, but once we add him back to the 40 man roster, we can't get rid of it. So, if we go over again next year, it's 30%. In 2020, it could be 50%.

 

The total added cost could possibly be ...

 

$2.4M (20% of $12M)

+

$3.6M (30% of $12M)

+

$6.0M (50% of $12M)

 

$12M/3 years

 

That's not a bad "added cost", assuming he does well. It's what we paid Young for 2 years.

[moonslav59]

Selected top wRC+ players from 2016-2017:

 

162 Votto

153 JD Martinez

153 Donaldson

140 Stanton

128 Dozier

125 Ozuna

125 Fowler

124 Conforti

124 Santana

123 Braun

122 Betts

121 Upton

119 Hosmer

118 Morrison

116 Cozart

114 Bruce

114 Pedroia

113 McCutchen

113 Moustakas

112 HRam

110 Granderson

109 Alonso

108 Duda

106 Nunez

106 Bogey

106 Beni

105 T Shaw

106 JBJ

 

 

[harmony]

Selected top wRC+ players from 2016-2017:

 

162 Votto

153 JD Martinez

153 Donaldson

140 Stanton

128 Dozier

125 Ozuna

125 Fowler

124 Conforti

124 Santana

123 Braun

122 Betts

121 Upton

119 Hosmer

118 Morrison

116 Cozart

114 Bruce

114 Pedroia

113 McCutchen

113 Moustakas

112 HRam

110 Granderson

109 Alonso

108 Duda

106 Nunez

106 Bogey

106 Beni

105 T Shaw

106 JBJ

The full list:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d&page=1_30

[moonslav59]

900+ PAs 2016 to 2017 SLG%

 

1. JD Martinez .610

6. Stanton .573

9. Donaldson .553

18. Dozier .521

22. Abreu .510

24. Bruce .507

26. Ozuna .503

28. Upton .502

29. Betts .498

33. Castellanos .493

39. Cozart .484

48. Santana .477

52. Morrison .474

59. HRam .469

65. Hosmer .465

91. JBJ .447

92. Nunez .445

103. Moreland .433

107. Alonso .432

111. Pedroia .436

112. Bogey .426

(155 qualified)

 

[moonslav59]

193 players with 1500 PAs since 2014

 

ISO

1. Stanton .301

2. Ortiz .280

4. JD Martinez .274

9. Donaldson .254

13. Duda .242

18. Upton .228

25. Dozier .222

27. Bruce .220

46. Moustakas .201

50. Santana .199

53 Morrison .196

54. Betts .196

61. HRam .189

64. Moreland .187

94. JBJ .170

115. Hosmer .160

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

134 Starting Pitchers 180 IP+ since 2016

 

ERA-

9. Sale 72

15. Pomeranz 77

18. Arrieta

22. L Lynn 81

28. Darvish 83

36. Porcello 87

44. Price 90

45. Wright 90

80. ERod 100

 

(We have 5 in the top 45: ERod is not one of them.)

 

[moonslav59]

Chicago is nearing agreement on a deal to bring Jim Hickey aboard as the new pitching coach, Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago tweets. Hickey long served as the Rays’ pitching coach, including a long run with Maddon. He had reportedly drawn interest from quite a few other organizations as well.

[Larry Cook]

Chicago is nearing agreement on a deal to bring Jim Hickey aboard as the new pitching coach, Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago tweets. Hickey long served as the Rays’ pitching coach, including a long run with Maddon. He had reportedly drawn interest from quite a few other organizations as well.

 

I think the cubbies signed butterfield and chilli to their coaching staff.

 

I think the Guardians signed Willis to their coaching staff and victor may be interviewing with the giants.

 

The coaching cupboard may be bare by the time Cora finishes up the World Series.

[oldtimer]

I think the cubbies signed butterfield and chilli to their coaching staff.

 

I think the Guardians signed Willis to their coaching staff and victor may be interviewing with the giants.

 

The coaching cupboard may be bare by the time Cora finishes up the World Series.

 

Clearly that was a known drawback when hiring Cora. We have to work around that issue. Maybe Cora has something lined up, I hope so.

[oldtimer]

900+ PAs 2016 to 2017 SLG%

 

1. JD Martinez .610

6. Stanton .573

9. Donaldson .553

18. Dozier .521

22. Abreu .510

24. Bruce .507

26. Ozuna .503

28. Upton .502

29. Betts .498

33. Castellanos .493

39. Cozart .484

48. Santana .477

52. Morrison .474

59. HRam .469

65. Hosmer .465

91. JBJ .447

92. Nunez .445

103. Moreland .433

107. Alonso .432

111. Pedroia .436

112. Bogey .426

(155 qualified)

 

 

When we do get around to the contract phase with new players or even dealing with extensions to those we have, I hope we rethink the lengths of the contracts we are willing to support. I'd rather not get a player than give them long term contracts, which often leave a team hobbled financially for years. My suggestion of length of contracts:

 

27 yrs old or less 7 years max.

28 to 30 yrs old 5 years max

31 to 33 yrs old 4 years max

34 to 35 yrs old 3 years max

Over 35 years old 2 years max

 

I would try to stay below the max contract lengths for players with injury histories and only take the max length for those who are above league norms for their positions. Pitchers are a special category and I would be even more reluctant to give long term contracts there due to their tendency to get injured. Let others take on contracts and get burned by them.

[jacksonianmarch]

JD will get at least 5 years. I’d probably peg him as a 6-7 year deal as power is a premium nowadays and JD is the best on the market.

[Bellhorn04]

JD will get at least 5 years. I’d probably peg him as a 6-7 year deal as power is a premium nowadays and JD is the best on the market.

 

I don't think he gets more than 5 years, because he's virtually a DH.

[Bellhorn04]

Chicago is nearing agreement on a deal to bring Jim Hickey aboard as the new pitching coach, Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago tweets. Hickey long served as the Rays’ pitching coach, including a long run with Maddon. He had reportedly drawn interest from quite a few other organizations as well.

 

Theo!

[sk7326]

Clearly that was a known drawback when hiring Cora. We have to work around that issue. Maybe Cora has something lined up, I hope so.

 

It was a known issue. At the same time, it's not really his job here. We make a big deal of the manager hiring his coaches - but the Red Sox NEVER did that with Francona. And we obviously just saw a purge of Maddon's coaching staff. I don't think the Red Sox not having a manager is a huge issue here so much as the coaches decided to go somewhere else.

[mvp 78]

Clearly that was a known drawback when hiring Cora. We have to work around that issue. Maybe Cora has something lined up, I hope so.

 

Drawback? It was a feature. They dumped Farrell AND knew the coaching staff would be purged.

[moonslav59]

JD will get at least 5 years. I’d probably peg him as a 6-7 year deal as power is a premium nowadays and JD is the best on the market.

 

We didn't even sign Papi to a 5 year deadl!

[Spudboy]

Drawback? It was a feature. They dumped Farrell AND knew the coaching staff would be purged.

 

Yup. They immediately gave the coaching staff the green light to find other jobs.

 

That is clearly saying "we are moving in another direction" or in plain words, "we don't want you anymore".

 

I see no reason to panic about getting a new set of coaches. Everyone here is just keying on some familiar names and wringing their hands because the Sox have not signed any of them. Guess what? Maybe the Sox did not want those guys anyway. Maybe they have spoken with Cora and with other candidates for the open positions.

 

It's called planning. Maybe the Sox have some plans.

[a700hitter]

Yup. They immediately gave the coaching staff the green light to find other jobs.

 

That is clearly saying "we are moving in another direction" or in plain words, "we don't want you anymore".

 

I see no reason to panic about getting a new set of coaches. Everyone here is just keying on some familiar names and wringing their hands because the Sox have not signed any of them. Guess what? Maybe the Sox did not want those guys anyway. Maybe they have spoken with Cora and with other candidates for the open positions.

 

It's called planning. Maybe the Sox have some plans.

They were saying: We can find someone else to send our runners on suicide missions. We can find someone else to collect equipment at first base, and we can find someone else to drink the beer.