2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Natick to NC]

Can you tell me why you think a guy who has been off as much as on will suddenly "take" once he gets here?

 

 

His defense has declined sharply.

 

Yes, he is younger than most free agents, but just about all of his contract years will be on the downside of his peak prime year.

 

He should get worse, and worse than one year okay and one year bad is not even close to being worthy of a 7 year deal at big money.

 

 

Great question.I personally think he's a 35 HR bat at Fenway .KC steals atleast 5 to 10 homers a year from him .I think playing particularly at Fenway makes Eric already a very smart hitter to begin with .an elite hitter ..he adjusts to the Ballpark .Eric in SD is a 15 million a year player for 5 same with KC ...Here my projections are 32 HR 112 RBi and a boat load of doubles ...Eric Hosmer just so happens to love Boston Love the park love the pressure and the standard of winning ...I would argue I'd take Eric over JD both as an underrated fielder and Hitter .Eric is a leader of men ...Eric is a Dirtdog ....Eric is beloved by the city he works in ....Eric is a priceless player particularly for Boston who sorely needs this leadership .I would take this mans potential at Fenway over JD ...I don't give a rip what the rest of you see .I see the Truth on a baseball diamond .I am not alone in what I see .Pay Eric Hosmer and get Nunez ...we won't ever have to worry a second about JD and his legs of stone ...the man hits to dead center ...that's a hard way to make a living at Fenway ...he's got to be slower than Ortiz and he cannot bump any of our OF players for defensive reasons ....JD is solely a DH ....why in the hell are we discussing paying a DH 25 million a year ????? Get Hosmer and we have our 1b taken care of for close to a decade .

Edited February 13, 2018 by Natick to NC

[moonslav59]

Great question.I personally think he's a 35 HR bat at Fenway .KC steals atleast 5 to 10 homers a year from him .I think playing particularly at Fenway makes Eric already a very smart hitter to begin with .an elite hitter ..he adjusts to the Ballpark .Eric in SD is a 15 million a year player for 5 same with KC ...Here my projections are 32 HR 112 RBi and a boat load of doubles ...Eric Hosmer just so happens to love Boston Love the park love the pressure and the standard of winning ...I would argue I'd take Eric over JD both as an underrated fielder and Hitter .Eric is a leader of men ...Eric is a Dirtdog ....Eric is beloved by the city he works in ....Eric is a priceless player particularly for Boston who sorely needs this leadership .I would take this mans potential at Fenway over JD ...I don't give a rip what the rest of you see .I see the Truth on a baseball diamond .I am not alone in what I see .Pay Eric Hosmer and get Nunez ...we won't ever have to worry a second about JD and his legs of stone ...the man hits to dead center ...that's a hard way to make a living at Fenway ...he's got to be slower than Ortiz and he cannot bump any of our OF players for defensive reasons ....JD is solely a DH ....why in the hell are we discussing paying a DH 25 million a year ????? Get Hosmer and we have our 1b taken care of for close to a decade .

 

He sucks on D and you want him for 7+ years?

 

He's going to get even worse!

 

You projection of 35 HRs is a real stretch.

 

Anyways, Hoze will be the DH for us for longer than JD, so your ant-JD argument works against you.

[notin]

The Sox would be better off extending Betts and Bogaerts rather than signing Hosmer. ..

[Larry Cook]

The Sox would be better off extending Betts and Bogaerts rather than signing Hosmer. ..

 

Betts and sale have to be extension priorities.

[Spudboy]

They also had the Seattle Pilots who moved to Milwaukee and became the Brewers.

 

Yup. I was getting to that!

[harmony]

Yup. I was getting to that!

I was going to attend the 40-year reunion of the 1969 Seattle Pilots -- made famous in Jim Bouton's classic book Ball Four -- but I broke my wrist in a bicycle mishap the morning of that afternoon gathering in August 2009. That evening I barely made it to the Mariner game where the Pilots were honored.

Edited February 13, 2018 by harmony

[Hitch]

Such as?

 

If take LoMo or go for a risky roll of the dice on Duda. I'd also bring back Nunez.

[moonslav59]

I was going to attend the 40-year reunion of the 1969 Seattle Pilots -- made famous in Jim Bouton's classic book Ball Four -- but I broke my wrist in a bicycle mishap the morning of that afternoon gathering in August 2009. That evening I barely made it to the Mariner game where the Pilots were honored.

 

I can credit the Pilots for being a Sox fan.

 

The Pilots moved to Milwaukee while my family lived 2 blocks away from the old County Stadium. I saw the Brewers often, as I think bleacher seats were 50 cents or a dollar.

 

Tommy Harper was maybe the first 30-30 guy in MLB, and he quickly became my favorite player. When my family and I moved to Portland, Maine, Harper was traded to the Sox at about the same time.

 

I switched to being a Sox fan, and the rest is history.

 

(Note: I'm still a Packers & Bucks fan. I'm a Bruins fan.)

[harmony]

The Red Sox are in the running for left-handed reliever Tony Watson, according to this tweet from Jon Heyman:

 

 

What luxury tax implications would a Watson contract have?

 

MLB Trade Rumors projected at two-year, $12 million contract for Watson:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

Edited February 13, 2018 by harmony

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox are in the running for left-handed reliever Tony Watson, according to this tweet from Jon Heyman:

 

 

How much would a Watson contract cut into the Red Sox space under the luxury tax threshold?

 

We have no space. We are already over.

[Bellhorn04]

We have no space. We are already over.

 

But we have our own thresholds this year. Just have to stay under the nuclear one!

[moonslav59]

But we have our own thresholds this year. Just have to stay under the nuclear one!

 

If we sign JD, we're blowing past the second level- with or without Watson or some other minor or mid-level signing.

 

The "nuclear" limit is going over by $40M. We will not do that.

 

Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax. Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s).

 

Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

[moonslav59]

But we have our own thresholds this year. Just have to stay under the nuclear one!

 

We're at about $205M now, so we have about a $33M buffer zone.

 

$25M JD

 

$7M Nunez

 

That would restrict us from getting any higher priced player mid season, unless we shed salary (HRam? Holt's $2M?)

[Jasonbay44]

I think the most annoying part about this Sox/Martinez stand off is the amount of alerts I get on my phone about essentially nothing. "Martinez still mulling Sox offer" "Boston won't increase offer and bid against themselves". I just want this to end already.

[notin]

Cheaper DH options ranked by OPS+ over the last 3 seasons

 

Lucas Duda 119

Eric Hosmer 119

Mike Moustakas 117

Danny Valencia 113

Logan Morrison 111

Carlos Gonzalez 106

Eduardo Nunez 106

Jon Lucroy 102

Mitch Moreland 101

 

Based on expected salary, years, draft compensation, who is the best option if it isn't JD?

[moonslav59]

Cheaper DH options ranked by OPS+ over the last 3 seasons

 

Lucas Duda 119

Eric Hosmer 119

Mike Moustakas 117

Danny Valencia 113

Logan Morrison 111

Carlos Gonzalez 106

Eduardo Nunez 106

Jon Lucroy 102

Mitch Moreland 101

 

Based on expected salary, years, draft compensation, who is the best option if it isn't JD?

 

Duda at $6M/1 (MLBTR's estimate) is the best gamble for the money.

 

LoMo probably has a better chance at a big 2018 than Duda, Hoze or anyone else on this list.

 

I think Moose might be the best of the bunch and would improve our leftside defense. (Devers to DH.) He might even take a pillow contract.

[Carpin]

The Sox would be better off extending Betts and Bogaerts rather than signing Hosmer. ..

 

Bogaerts is with Boras, so it means an extension is a very long shot. Betts in the other hand is achievable but the longer it takes will be more expensive

[mvp 78]

I think the most annoying part about this Sox/Martinez stand off is the amount of alerts I get on my phone about essentially nothing. "Martinez still mulling Sox offer" "Boston won't increase offer and bid against themselves". I just want this to end already.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/j-d-martinez-rumors-tuesday.html

 

The Red Sox’ current top offer to Martinez is “in the vicinity” of only $100MM, according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. That’s quite a lot less than has generally been stated, and certainly paints a different picture of the present state of affairs for the market’s top slugger. While the Sox are still smitten with Martinez, Speier writes, the organization is also not particularly interested in running up its bid when demand from other teams is questionable. The article discusses the broader opportunity that Boston may have on a still-dragging market, given its willingness to move past the luxury tax line in a winter where others are declining to do so.

 

Of course, demand can have a way of forming to fill vacuums, and Martinez and his reps at the Boras Corporation are no doubt hoping that’ll occur over the coming weeks. The Diamondbacks are, notably, still working on creative means of bringing Martinez back into the fold, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. That could mean broaching the idea of a shorter deal with a big annual salary and opt-out opportunities, Heyman suggests, though the details of any offers to this point remain hazy. Such a pact might ameliorate concerns with locking into another massive, long-term entanglement, though it’d cut down on the upside for the team and would no doubt still require a big jump in payroll (or further creativity in the form of shedding other contracts). Whatever the details, though, Heyman says there’s some added optimism on the Arizona side that the team could have a real shot at pulling off a surprise deal.

 

Remember, if it's coming from Heyman, it's just Boras BS and a ploy to get the Sox to raise their offer.

[moonslav59]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/j-d-martinez-rumors-tuesday.html

 

The Red Sox’ current top offer to Martinez is “in the vicinity” of only $100MM, according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. That’s quite a lot less than has generally been stated, and certainly paints a different picture of the present state of affairs for the market’s top slugger. While the Sox are still smitten with Martinez, Speier writes, the organization is also not particularly interested in running up its bid when demand from other teams is questionable. The article discusses the broader opportunity that Boston may have on a still-dragging market, given its willingness to move past the luxury tax line in a winter where others are declining to do so.

 

Of course, demand can have a way of forming to fill vacuums, and Martinez and his reps at the Boras Corporation are no doubt hoping that’ll occur over the coming weeks. The Diamondbacks are, notably, still working on creative means of bringing Martinez back into the fold, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. That could mean broaching the idea of a shorter deal with a big annual salary and opt-out opportunities, Heyman suggests, though the details of any offers to this point remain hazy. Such a pact might ameliorate concerns with locking into another massive, long-term entanglement, though it’d cut down on the upside for the team and would no doubt still require a big jump in payroll (or further creativity in the form of shedding other contracts). Whatever the details, though, Heyman says there’s some added optimism on the Arizona side that the team could have a real shot at pulling off a surprise deal.

 

Remember, if it's coming from Heyman, it's just Boras BS and a ploy to get the Sox to raise their offer.

 

If it's a $100M, then I can certainly understand why he's waiting it out. It also looks likje the whole "greed" debate could be unfounded.

 

If we could get JD for $105M/5, we could spend more on someone else.

[Natick to NC]

So it's time to call BS on Sox ownership and GM in regards to this offseason and JD ....100 million ? Really 100 million ? Half of what he originally asked ???? Ohh this won't end well Redsox fans ...no nor should it .John Lester low ball offer and now this ? Lol come on we go get Sale ? price ? And stop at the one yard line ?????? Maybe Dave is a s*** GM after all ...he dismantled our Farm for what ? To be the 2017 Celtics version of baseball ??? There will be some fun games sure and maybe hey they can win what a wildcard game ? But no chance in hell at a championship ...What exactly is going on ? 100 million ? That's a freaking insult and won't be forgotten by JD or his agent or this Redsox fan .Nooooo wonder why he's not signed yet my God what an asshat of a GM .I normally fly in for 2 games a year ...not a freaking dime will I spend on that idea ...no MLB package nothing ...they want to dick around do it on some wealthy asshats dime not my hard earned sheckles . Edited February 13, 2018 by Natick to NC

[Bellhorn04]

I don't even know what to say about the JDM thing anymore. I suppose we should be going 'hurray' that we're not going to overpay for him, but Arizona might be the ones who end up getting him cheaply...and we may end up not doing anything. As notin keeps pointing out, DD has not altered the roster one bit so far.

 

This offseason is so freaking...constipated!

[moonslav59]

So it's time to call BS on Sox ownership and GM in regards to this offseason and JD ....100 million ? Really 100 million ? Half of what he originally asked ???? Ohh this won't end well Redsox fans ...no nor should it .John Lester low ball offer and now this ? Lol come on we go get Sale ? price ? And stop at the one yard line ?????? Maybe Dave is a s*** GM after all ...he dismantled our Farm for what ? To be the 2017 Celtics version of baseball ??? There will be some fun games sure and maybe hey they can win what a wildcard game ? But no chance in hell at a championship ...What exactly is going on ? 100 million ? That's a freaking insult and won't be forgotten by JD or his agent or this Redsox fan .Nooooo wonder why he's not signed yet my God what an asshat of a GM .

 

If $100M is the highest offer, and AZ is scrambling to offer a shorter term deal, how are the Sox being insulting? I'd say the other 28 teams not thinking he's worth more are insulting.

[mvp 78]

So it's time to call BS on Sox ownership and GM in regards to this offseason and JD ....100 million ? Really 100 million ? Half of what he originally asked ???? Ohh this won't end well Redsox fans ...no nor should it .John Lester low ball offer and now this ? Lol come on we go get Sale ? price ? And stop at the one yard line ?????? Maybe Dave is a s*** GM after all ...he dismantled our Farm for what ? To be the 2017 Celtics version of baseball ??? There will be some fun games sure and maybe hey they can win what a wildcard game ? But no chance in hell at a championship ...What exactly is going on ? 100 million ? That's a freaking insult and won't be forgotten by JD or his agent or this Redsox fan .Nooooo wonder why he's not signed yet my God what an asshat of a GM .I normally fly in for 2 games a year ...not a freaking dime will I spend on that idea ...no MLB package nothing ...they want to dick around do it on some wealthy asshats dime not my hard earned sheckles .

 

How is it a low ball offer if there are no other bidders?

[moonslav59]

I don't even know what to say about the JDM thing anymore. I suppose we should be going 'hurray' that we're not going to overpay for him, but Arizona might be the ones who end up getting him cheaply...and we may end up not doing anything. As notin keeps pointing out, DD has not altered the roster one bit so far.

 

This offseason is so freaking...constipated!

 

If AZ offers less years, isn't that more insulting?

[mvp 78]

A 5/100 contract is Encarnacion AAV for 2 extra years (JDM was younger as a FA). Makes sense to me.

 

I don't think it's a low ball offer at all, especially when there are no other suitors out there.

[mvp 78]

If AZ offers less years, isn't that more insulting?

 

If they offer a 1 year contract, can they QO him at year end?

[notin]

Are opt out clauses really a selling point any more? Hasn't this maddeningly frustrating off season destroyed their appeal? Is JD really talking to Arizona and saying " this of season has totally sucked and been completely disappointing. Any way we can make sure my contract let's me do it again in two years? "

[notin]

A 5/100 contract is Encarnacion AAV for 2 extra years (JDM was younger as a FA). Makes sense to me.

 

I don't think it's a low ball offer at all, especially when there are no other suitors out there.

 

 

Agreed. If JD is mad at the Sox for this offer, why is he so patient with the 29 other teams who haven't even offered anything close?

[harmony]

Agreed. If JD is mad at the Sox for this offer, why is he so patient with the 29 other teams who haven't even offered anything close?

I suspect J.D. Martinez is more patient than mad.

[Natick to NC]

Come onnnnn please think about what you just wrote ....that man is worth more than 100 million .My God I'm tired of this crap .The Redsox have no desire to land JD none zip zero ....this is a fraud offer never expecting JD to do anything but laugh in there face .John Lester offer 2.0 ....screwing around wasting everyone's time .I think I want a brand new 18 Bentley....I'm going into the dealership and offer 42000 hey it starts at 150 k but maybe if no one can afford it they will take the offer ....1 month goes by ....2 ....3 months no call back .?..Hmmmm thought they wouldn't sell that car ....wrong . Edited February 13, 2018 by Natick to NC