2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Kimmi]

Absent collusion, the team that lands J.D. Martinez is likely to overpay.

 

As I've written repeatedly, the Red Sox may not want to be that team.

 

I have no doubt that whoever lands JD is likely to overpay. $125/5yr is an overpay. Another team could certainly swoop in and offer JD more money or more years. I just don't believe that a higher offer to JD currently exists, which is why Dombrowski has neither budged from his offer nor announced that he is moving in another direction.

[Kimmi]

I'm with you all the way on this one. DD works in a field of which I am not familiar and he has to know something here that we don't. I just can't help but think that he absolutely believes that JD will sign with us. Unless he is just absolutely convinced that our current team as assembled will compete for a championship, which I really doubt he believes, I don't see any other explanation. Personally I was ready to move away from this plan yesterday.

 

It is no secret that I am not a fan of Dombrowsk's methods, but he is a very smart and experienced baseball ops guy. I think he has a very good read on where he stands on being able to sign JD. He does not feel the need to increase his offer to JD. I think that is a very telling sign.

[Kimmi]

This whole scenari suggests Dombrowski is not "all in" on trying to win this upcoming season. "All in" would have him meet Boras' demands,

 

This is fine with me that he doesn't want to ruin 5 or 6 years (or more) from now with another bloated contract for a player who a late30's player barely justify starting.

 

So... start those backup plans, DD. Before everyone else does...

 

If there ever was an 'all in' GM, it's Dombrowski.

 

But being all in doesn't mean bidding against yourself, although Dombrowski did that with Price. Dombrowski is showing better patience and restraint with JD. Good for him.

[Kimmi]

1.) maybe dave has faith that this current team can win it all as configured now. I happen to agree with him.... if all our pitchers are healthy and someone steps up in the locker room and leads our zombies!

 

2.) dave has no plans, period! He has no primary plan. He had no backup plan! He is a reactionary. He does not think in terms of medium or long range. He only sees to the end of his nose. He is a fireman, not a strategist.

 

LOL You crack me up.

 

1. I agree. The team, as currently constructed, can win it all if our starting pitchers remain healthy.

 

2. Dave has a plan. He has a Plan A, a Plan B, and a Plan C, at the very least. That said, I do agree that he is somewhat reactionary and that he has not been thinking in terms of the long range.

[Natick to NC]

Pedey ??? Isn't it time to look at this year as his swan song with this team ? I think Dave Trades him ala Nomar at the deadline unless he's raking .

[Bellhorn04]

LOL You crack me up.

 

1. I agree. The team, as currently constructed, can win it all if our starting pitchers remain healthy.

2. Dave has a plan. He has a Plan A, a Plan B, and a Plan C, at the very least. That said, I do agree that he is somewhat reactionary and that he has not been thinking in terms of the long range.

 

There are actually two pretty big ifs. Pitchers staying healthy and offensive players rebounding.

 

And then there's the Yankees. Pythagoras says they were 7 games better than us last year, and they added this Stanton guy and they still have some money and prospects to add on with...

[Bellhorn04]

Pedey ??? Isn't it time to look at this year as his swan song with this team ? I think Dave Trades him ala Nomar at the deadline unless he's raking .

 

Don't count him out yet. He's probably more motivated than ever. It's all up to medical science.

[notin]

Pedey ??? Isn't it time to look at this year as his swan song with this team ? I think Dave Trades him ala Nomar at the deadline unless he's raking .

 

Not likely. Trade Pedroia to pave the way for who? Marco Hernandez? Brock Holt? Another free agent who wants too much money and to play on another team anyway?

 

If you're one of those people who only wants players who want to play in Boston, you would never get rid of this guy..

[a700hitter]

It is shaping up to be another day of nothing.

[illinoisredsox]

Pedey ??? Isn't it time to look at this year as his swan song with this team ? I think Dave Trades him ala Nomar at the deadline unless he's raking .

 

It's not strictly up to Dave. Pedey is a 10-5 guy, he can veto any trade. That's not to say Pedroia wouldn't waive it in the right circumstance or for the right price, but it's not the same as Nomar was.

[moonslav59]

We can win with no more additions and a pile of "ifs" coming through all at the same time. Last year, we saw just about every returning offensive player but Vaz decline. That is not likely to occur again.

 

I'd rather not depend on just 10 out of 15 "ifs" occurring this year. We should bee proactive and try to improve our team, on paper, so we can not have to depend on multiple "ifs".

 

The biggest "ifs"....

 

Price's health

 

Porcello being up or down

 

Pedey's health

 

Sale's endurance

 

Pom's trend continuing or not

 

HRam's shoulder surgery working or not

 

Devers sophomore slump or continued growth

 

Is the 2017 Vaz for real?

 

The 2017 or 2016 Bogey?

 

The 2017 or 2016 Betts?

 

The 2017 or 2016 JBJ?

 

Beni greatly improve on 2017?

 

Marco/Holt/Marrero/Lin/Quiroz hold the forst down at 2B?

 

ERod's return during 2018?

 

Wright/Johnson/Velazquez/Beeks as our 5th starter?

 

The pen?

-Carson Smith?

-Thornburg?

-Maddox?

-Workman?

-Barnes & Hembree?

-Kelly?

 

 

 

[FredLynn]

Don't count him out yet. He's probably more motivated than ever. It's all up to medical science.

 

Its more up to his knee than medical science. Generally microfracture therapy (if you can even call it that) is a pretty crappy way to deal with the loss of cartilage in the knee. Sometimes it works briefly, maybe for a year if the patient is lucky, but the new cartilage created doesn't function very well. I think Pedroia will eventually need a joint replacement.

[moonslav59]

Its more up to his knee than medical science. Generally microfracture therapy (if you can even call it that) is a pretty crappy way to deal with the loss of cartilage in the knee. Sometimes it works briefly, maybe for a year if the patient is lucky, but the new cartilage created doesn't function very well. I think Pedroia will eventually need a joint replacement.

 

If that happens, maybe he'll retire like Dempster and take us off the financial hook (not likely), but if anybody can comeback from something this severe, it might be Pedey.

 

[Spudboy]

I'd be shocked to see any of the "old" Pedey again.

 

I'd love to see it but I think it's just wishful thinking.

[notin]

It is shaping up to be another day of nothing.

 

Sadly, this might be the most accurate post in the history of talk sox...

[moonslav59]

I'd be shocked to see any of the "old" Pedey again.

 

I'd love to see it but I think it's just wishful thinking.

 

You're probably right, but hope springs eternal.

[harmony]

What if Scott Boras early in the offseason approached multiple teams that indicated they would be interested in J.D. Martinez only if they failed in their bid to land Lorenzo Cain, whom many viewed as a better value?

 

Are those clubs back in the competition for Martinez? Is that one factor that has held up the process?

 

I have questions but apparently no answers.

[notin]

I'd be shocked to see any of the "old" Pedey again.

 

I'd love to see it but I think it's just wishful thinking.

 

Even 3/4 of Pedroia is a very good 2b...

[Kimmi]

Pedey ??? Isn't it time to look at this year as his swan song with this team ? I think Dave Trades him ala Nomar at the deadline unless he's raking .

 

Don't ever count Pedroia out.

[notin]

What if Scott Boras early in the offseason approached multiple teams that indicated they would be interested in J.D. Martinez only if they failed in their bid to land Lorenzo Cain, whom many viewed as a better value?

 

Are those clubs back in the competition for Martinez? Is that one factor that has held up the process?

 

I have questions but apparently no answers.

 

At some point, Martinez is going to have to simply take the best offer, whatever it is. Teams are apparently very reluctant to meet his demands.

 

And if the teams who lost out on Cain yet thought him to be a better value, were all offering less than $80mill for 5 years. Now they are supposedly going to top $125mill over 5 years? For the player they deemed a worse value? And who plays a drastically different position?

[cp176]

What if Scott Boras early in the offseason approached multiple teams that indicated they would be interested in J.D. Martinez only if they failed in their bid to land Lorenzo Cain, whom many viewed as a better value?

 

Are those clubs back in the competition for Martinez? Is that one factor that has held up the process?

 

I have questions but apparently no answers.

 

Oh I get what you are suggesting this time around. You think that there might be a bunch of mystery teams waiting to pounce in addition to really the only other two that even seem remotely like JD suitors. Hmm - I'll have to really think about that one.

[Kimmi]

There are actually two pretty big ifs. Pitchers staying healthy and offensive players rebounding.

 

And then there's the Yankees. Pythagoras says they were 7 games better than us last year, and they added this Stanton guy and they still have some money and prospects to add on with...

 

I agree that the pitchers staying healthy is a big if. I don't agree that the offense rebounding is a big if. I think the latter is rather likely, actually.

 

As far as the Yankees 7 game advantage and the addition of Stanton, Fangraphs still has them projected for 91 wins, just like the Red Sox. And the 2nd of my favorite three go to projection systems, Clay Davenport, currently has the Red Sox winning the division over the Yankees by one game. (The 3rd of my favorite three, Baseball Prospectus, is not out yet.)

 

I understand that you take projections with a grain of salt, but on paper, we are currently as good as the Yankees.

[Kimmi]

It is shaping up to be another day of nothing.

 

Which is what I've come to expect.

[Kimmi]

I'd be shocked to see any of the "old" Pedey again.

 

I'd love to see it but I think it's just wishful thinking.

 

He is likely not going to return to the "old Pedey" level, but he could still be a very good 2nd baseman for us.

[Natick to NC]

Don't ever count Pedroia out.

 

Trot Nixon and Pedey are by far my favorite Redsox in the last 20 years ....not Manny not David .But it's time to really come to grips as a fan ,pedeys time here very well could end in months .The man has given everything he has and forever will be an all time Great Redsox .I respect this man so much and can't even pencil in who would be his replacement ....being a GM can't be easy when it comes to situations like Pedey ,but the health of the team and its future is made with just these moments ....painful as it is for all.

Edited January 28, 2018 by Natick to NC

[Kimmi]

What if Scott Boras early in the offseason approached multiple teams that indicated they would be interested in J.D. Martinez only if they failed in their bid to land Lorenzo Cain, whom many viewed as a better value?

 

Are those clubs back in the competition for Martinez? Is that one factor that has held up the process?

 

I have questions but apparently no answers.

 

Harmony, why are you so intent on having other outbidding us for JD?

[Kimmi]

Even 3/4 of Pedroia is a very good 2b...

 

Precisely!

[Kimmi]

Trot Nixon and Pedey are by far my favorite Redsox in the last 20 years ....not Manny not David .But it's time to really come to grips as a fan ,pedeys time here very well could end in months .The man has given everything he has and forever will be an all time Great Redsox .

 

It could, but I've learned over the last several years that there are two players to never count out, Pedroia and Ortiz.

 

I'll believe that Pedroia is finished when he's finished.

[Natick to NC]

Pedey is still a solid player ...no argument from me .Solid may not cut it .But just in case let's win one more while he wears our hat shall we ? Edited January 28, 2018 by Natick to NC

[notin]

Harmony, why are you so intent on having other outbidding us for JD?

 

I'm hoping it happens.

 

Martinez wants too much money for too many years and sounds like would prefer to get them elsewhere.

 

I'm all for letting him go and upgrading elsewhere...