2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Kimmi]

who cares about anyone on the yankees!

 

!!!

[Kimmi]

It wasn’t aimed at you actually, even though I responded to your post. There’s eternal optimism with the sox and pessimism towards the rival. It’s funny

 

In case you weren't aware, this is a Red Sox board.

 

We're allowed to be optimistic about our team.

[baseball jones]

Did you just put Devers in the same class as Ted Williams and Mickey Mantle? You aren’t the same guy who said Lars Anderson would be a 20 time all star, are you?

 

Ozzie Albies age 20 debut stands up to history

WWW.MLB.COM

---

At 20 years old, Atlanta's Ozzie Albies made it to the Major Leagues for 57 games in 2017, and for most of that time, he was the youngest player in the bigs. (Washington's Victor Robles, five months younger, later received a brief September call-up for 27 plate appearances.)If you knew

 

stanton did make the list also

Edited January 13, 2018 by baseball jones

[cp176]

Returning to a career season? No.

 

We are talking about regressing to the mean.

 

Mookie's career slash line is .292/.351/.488. Last year, he hit .264/.344/.459. Mookie is likely to regress this year and hit closer to that career line.

 

FTR, regression does not mean that if you flip a coin 100 times and you get 80 heads, that in the next 100 flips you will only get 20 heads to 'balance out' the 80 heads. It means that in the next 100 flips the number of heads that you get will be much closer to the expected number of 50.

 

 

Kimmi - How many years do you think a player needs to play in order to establish a meaningful mean?

[oldtimer]

Not that we were interested in a 3rd baseman, but one more option came off the table when Josh Donaldson agreed to arbitration today. One year $23 Million. We continue to sit and wait.

[moonslav59]

@alexspeier

 

Eduardo Rodriguez and the Sox agreed to a $2.375 million deal for 2018.

 

For half of 2018.

[moonslav59]

Asking the same old crew to return and increase their run total by 6-7% isn't realistic.

 

Is it any more unrealistic than to think we'd decline by 11% in runs scored from 2016 to 2017?

 

If you are going to gain 50 runs as a team, youre going to need to add something else.

 

Scoring 50 more runs this year would still be 43 less than 2016.

 

Yes, we lost Papi from the 2016 team, but we've added Beni, Devers and our young stars are reaching prime.

 

[moonslav59]

I'm hopeful of good things from Workman this year. Always liked the kid.

 

Me too. He looked pretty good at the end of last year.

[moonslav59]

Returning to a career season? No.

 

We are talking about regressing to the mean.

 

Mookie's career slash line is .292/.351/.488. Last year, he hit .264/.344/.459. Mookie is likely to regress this year and hit closer to that career line.

 

FTR, regression does not mean that if you flip a coin 100 times and you get 80 heads, that in the next 100 flips you will only get 20 heads to 'balance out' the 80 heads. It means that in the next 100 flips the number of heads that you get will be much closer to the expected number of 50.

 

It's also not unrealistic to expect a player who is approaching prime to get even better year by year. He could have a career year.

 

True, he may have also already had his career year.

[mvp 78]

I'm hopeful of good things from Workman this year. Always liked the kid.

 

I’m a big fan too.

[mvp 78]

Did you just put Devers in the same class as Ted Williams and Mickey Mantle? You aren’t the same guy who said Lars Anderson would be a 20 time all star, are you?

 

Devers is Ted Williams but with better wheels.

[NativeBostonian]

Devers is Ted Williams but with better wheels.

 

I think we need to slow a little down here. Devers hasn’t even played a full season.

[moonslav59]

Will 100 games more from Devers offset the loss of Pedroia for however many games and add 50 runs on top of it?

 

Maybe a half season or more with no Pedey and no ERod.

 

No 38 games from Nunez, but no 32 games from Pablo, 90 games from Young, 37 games from Rutledge and probably less games from Leon.

 

Yes, many games added onto the 58 Devers got last year, but what about this?

 

More games by Vaz.

 

Probably more games from Price.

 

More games Carson Smith.

More games from Steven Wright.

More games from Brandon Workman.

Hopefully many games from Thornburg.

Possibly more games from Maddox & Velazquez.

 

Yes, these guys won't help the offense, but they should help us win some more games.

[notin]

Not that we were interested in a 3rd baseman, but one more option came off the table when Josh Donaldson agreed to arbitration today. One year $23 Million. We continue to sit and wait.

 

Donaldson was never an option for anyone but Toronto. Other teams were asking, and yet he stayed a Blue Jay.

[notin]

Devers is Ted Williams but with better wheels.

 

 

Ted Williams would be 99 years old. I would hope Devers had better wheels...

[moonslav59]

Donaldson was never an option for anyone but Toronto. Other teams were asking, and yet he stayed a Blue Jay.

 

Maybe Donaldson's big payday lessens the chance the Jay's up their offer for JD (assuming they are the "other" bidder).

[notin]

Maybe Donaldson's big payday lessens the chance the Jay's up their offer for JD (assuming they are the "other" bidder).

 

It doesn't look like anyone is upping their offer to JD, which is why he is threatening to hold out through spring training.

 

I say move on to Morrison. And pass along to the King Kong of Slug best wishes in getting the deal he thinks he deserves. No one is going to give him $30mill with Harper in play next off-season...

[mvp 78]

I think we need to slow a little down here. Devers hasn’t even played a full season.

 

Can you imagine his numbers for a full season? CAN YOU IMAGINE?!?!? HOF NUMBERS

[Bellhorn04]

It doesn't look like anyone is upping their offer to JD, which is why he is threatening to hold out through spring training.

 

I say move on to Morrison. And pass along to the King Kong of Slug best wishes in getting the deal he thinks he deserves. No one is going to give him $30mill with Harper in play next off-season...

 

The only problem is that JD might then give up and sign a relative bargain deal and Sox fans will be screaming bloody murder about a lack of patience and smarts and so on.

[notin]

The only problem is that JD might then give up and sign a relative bargain deal and Sox fans will be screaming bloody murder about a lack of patience and smarts and so on.

 

Except that it will never be the case.

 

The Sox have a reputation for spending especially among agents, and the price for him will never come down.

 

Last week on MLB Network radio, a caller asked Steve Phillips if the Mike Moustakas signs a 3 yr / $39mill deal, does that mean the Angels overreacted and signed Zack Cozart too quickly. Phillips quickly told him that if Moustakas price fell that low, it would be because the Angels pulled out of the market, and as long as the Angels were in the market, they would not have been able to get Moustakas for that price.

 

That's how I see it with Martinez. That the Sox haven't dropped out keeps the price up. Right now, that $30mill/season price appears to be for Boston and Boston alone. He may eventually sign for less, but not very likely here.

 

And frankly, if he is threatening to hold out, pass on him. Right now the threat is "hold out into Spring Training." That's 4 weeks away. If he isn't signed by then, how long will he hold out? Into the season? While it was a little different with players like Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, they did show that a prolonged holdout actually does seem to turn into a lost season for a player.

 

And a lost $30mill season for a 31yo player who wants to be signed into his late 30's is a financial sinkhole for this team. How many good seasons does JD have left? And he appears to be prepared to give one of them away because he feels a contract that will guarantee to put food on the table for his great great great grandchildren simply isn't good enough...

[a700hitter]

It doesn't look like anyone is upping their offer to JD, which is why he is threatening to hold out through spring training.

 

I say move on to Morrison. And pass along to the King Kong of Slug best wishes in getting the deal he thinks he deserves. No one is going to give him $30mill with Harper in play next off-season...

Logan Morrison isn’t worth whatever upgrade he would provide, where would he fit? We have 2 first basemen, and if I don’t remember him as an outfielder.

[notin]

Logan Morrison isn’t worth whatever upgrade he would provide, where would he fit? We have 2 first basemen, and if I don’t remember him as an outfielder.

 

DH over Hanley? 1B over Moreland? Mitch Moreland essentially got the same deal as Chris Young and Jonny Gomes, so it's not like we overcommitted to him and he has to start to be worth his deal. We are paying him like we pay bench players.

 

Logan Morrison has played LF in Miami, but he is awful at it and it should never happen again, regardless of who signs him...

[Bellhorn04]

And frankly, if he is threatening to hold out, pass on him. Right now the threat is "hold out into Spring Training."

 

This is just another rumor, isn't it?

[notin]

This is just another rumor, isn't it?

 

Is it a rumor or an idle threat? I wouldn't be surprised if the Boras camp made that statement. In fact, I'd be surprised if they didn't.

 

Now whether or not Martinez actually holds out remains to be seen. But as of now, that question gets answered in 5 weeks...

[Bellhorn04]

Is it a rumor or an idle threat? I wouldn't be surprised if the Boras camp made that statement. In fact, I'd be surprised if they didn't.

 

Now whether or not Martinez actually holds out remains to be seen. But as of now, that question gets answered in 5 weeks...

 

I'm pretty sure Dombrowski won't let it drag out that far.

 

Boras has so many guys still unsigned...it's really getting a bit nutty.

[notin]

I'm pretty sure Dombrowski won't let it drag out that far.

 

Boras has so many guys still unsigned...it's really getting a bit nutty.

 

He wants the market to be what it was a few years back, but the trend is changing. Shorter terms, even if it means a slightly higher AAV.

 

With Martinez, it looks like he might be able to get $25-30mill or 6-7 years, but not both.

 

At this point, if the Sox bail on him, it might be interesting to see where he lands and for how much. If his years and AAV drop - which is very likely - does it impact next year's free agent class?

 

To me, he is a good player, but not a game-changing talent. He's simply not worth the whole situtation and certainly not worth his demands. While he might certainly be the next Edwin Encarnacion (my position) as a late bloomer who remains productive into his mid to late 30's, he also might not be. And the latter is the more likely scenario.

 

And if he isn't, he becomes another Hanley Ramirez. Only a more expensive one who is around a lot longer.

 

And healthwise, he is more Hanley than Edwin...

[a700hitter]

DH over Hanley? 1B over Moreland? Mitch Moreland essentially got the same deal as Chris Young and Jonny Gomes, so it's not like we overcommitted to him and he has to start to be worth his deal. We are paying him like we pay bench players.

 

Logan Morrison has played LF in Miami, but he is awful at it and it should never happen again, regardless of who signs him...

It doesn't matter how much we paid Moreland, there just isn't room for another first baseman. They aren't going to relegate Moreland or Hanley to such a limited role. Also, Morrison is not enough of an upgrade over either one to be worth relegating either of them to a limited role. And Three first basemen would cut down on the flexibility and versatility of the bench.

[notin]

It doesn't matter how much we paid Moreland, there just isn't room for another first baseman. They aren't going to relegate Moreland or Hanley to such a limited role. Also, Morrison is not enough of an upgrade over either one to be worth relegating either of them to a limited role. And Three first basemen would cut down on the flexibility and versatility of the bench.

 

Whether it is Morrison or Martinez, you have the same roster issues. That Martinez can play the OF poorly really doesn't add to his versatility. He's really not a defensive wizard out there. "Defensively mediocre" would be better goal for him.

 

Sure they might have less roster flexibility. But it's not like we are bandying about some great depth chart names for the bench. So someone gets cut or demoted from the set of Leon, Swihart, Brentz, Holt and Marrero (assuming Hernandez starts at 2B, which is not a given to begin with.)

 

The Sox could bring in Morrison over Martinez, spend the difference in cash on a pitcher, and the 4 man bench would have to come from that same set of Leon, Swihart, Holt, Marrero, and Brentz. Only Holt and Hernandez have options left.

 

To me, I demote one of the guys with options and cut Brentz. 25-man roster set. Not really less flexible than if we did have Martinez.

[notin]

It doesn't matter how much we paid Moreland, there just isn't room for another first baseman. They aren't going to relegate Moreland or Hanley to such a limited role. Also, Morrison is not enough of an upgrade over either one to be worth relegating either of them to a limited role. And Three first basemen would cut down on the flexibility and versatility of the bench.

 

There's been chatter about DFAing Hanley, which would be a far more limited role, reducing him to "cashing exorbitant paychecks" and nothing else. There is absolutely no way to bring in Martinez without limiting the role of either Hanley or Moreland, making your statement impossible. Unless the Sox either have an injury, make a trade, or demote Benintendi. There is no other way.

 

Bottom line is - if the Sox can fit Martinez on the roster, they can fit Morrison, who, incidentally, doesn't whine about being a DH...

[a700hitter]

Whether it is Morrison or Martinez, you have the same roster issues. That Martinez can play the OF poorly really doesn't add to his versatility. He's really not a defensive wizard out there. "Defensively mediocre" would be better goal for him.

 

Sure they might have less roster flexibility. But it's not like we are bandying about some great depth chart names for the bench. So someone gets cut or demoted from the set of Leon, Swihart, Brentz, Holt and Marrero (assuming Hernandez starts at 2B, which is not a given to begin with.)

 

The Sox could bring in Morrison over Martinez, spend the difference in cash on a pitcher, and the 4 man bench would have to come from that same set of Leon, Swihart, Holt, Marrero, and Brentz. Only Holt and Hernandez have options left.

 

To me, I demote one of the guys with options and cut Brentz. 25-man roster set. Not really less flexible than if we did have Martinez.

JD would not cause as much of a logjam or impede the versatility of the bench as Morrison would cause. A fourth outfielder should get plenty of time subbing for the starting 3 outfielders and playing DH. ANd the key is that the offensive upgrade with JD far outweighs any upgrade with Morrison, so JD would be worth the any loss of bench flexibility. Morrison is just not worth it. If it comes down to Morrison or nothing, I move into the status quo camp despite the fact that I think that is an irrational strategy.