2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Jack Flap]

I agree but that is not a popular opinion in these parts I am afraid.

 

I don't think that opinion is unpopular at all, just unrealistic in the context of this discussion.

 

I'd feel like I hit the lottery if someone offered me even $5 million, but that really has nothing to do with what JD Martinez will sign for.

[Bellhorn04]

This is what makes it hard for me to say exactly how much I'd agree to pay JD to get him.

 

I'm okay with maybe $135M/5, but not if no other bidder is over $120M/5.

 

The trick is, how does DD know the best "other offer", or even if there even is another serious offer.

 

One downside of having your agent start the talks with a $210M/7 number is that some teams may not even make a bid at all.

 

 

Another downside might be that the client feels incredibly disappointed with a top offer of $125/5.

 

The $210/7 talk by Boras was absurdly unrealistic, even by his standards.

[moonslav59]

Another downside might be that the client feels incredibly disappointed with a top offer of $125/5.

 

The $210/7 talk by Boras was absurdly unrealistic, even by his standards.

 

If $125M is the top offer, and the player is highly disappointed, then he could try for a 1 year mega deal to try to increase value, but at JD's age, and the fact that it might be hard to top 2017, unless he gets 700 PAs, he'll just have to "suck it up" and settle for a measly $125M.

 

JD may shed a tear, but I won't.

 

I wouldn't be surprised, if the Sox have offered $120M/5 with the stipulation that they be given a chance to up another higher offer. $125m/5 might be a safer offer, so as not to antagonize JD or BorA$$, but why go higher right away, when you might be the only guy in town?

[cp176]

If $125M is the top offer, and the player is highly disappointed, then he could try for a 1 year mega deal to try to increase value, but at JD's age, and the fact that it might be hard to top 2017, unless he gets 700 PAs, he'll just have to "suck it up" and settle for a measly $125M.

 

JD may shed a tear, but I won't.

 

I wouldn't be surprised, if the Sox have offered $120M/5 with the stipulation that they be given a chance to up another higher offer. $125m/5 might be a safer offer, so as not to antagonize JD or BorA$$, but why go higher right away, when you might be the only guy in town?

 

I would actually be willing to bet that the Red Sox have made the best offer to date and there might not even be any others to begin with. It just seems to me as though if any other teams were actually involved in this process we would have heard some kind of chatter about it by now. Boston has proven that they have the ability to keep things out of the news when they feel the need. As for other teams - just seems strange to me that we haven't at least heard something. Lots of teams would love to have JD but the Sox might be only team that wants to pay him.

[jacksonianmarch]

There is no way the sox could do a 1 yr megadeal due to cap concerns and there is no way JD would accept one. Boras is patient and since the market for starters and hitters right now is held up by him with Arrieta and JD, we all have to wait with him. The market this year isn't as epically bad as last season's was. JD had a career season last year. There is no point in taking a one year pact and then going back on the market when Harper, Kershaw, Keuchel, Machado and Donaldson will be out there. He's signing this year. But Boras is entirely content with waiting and hence, we all have to wait

[Bellhorn04]

JD doing a one year megadeal doesn't make much sense for him. He just had a career year. He's the King Kong of Slug.

[jacksonianmarch]

I am sure Boras has a deal that JD is very happy with. But Boras isn't about happy. He is about "over the moon" ecstatic. He wants the sox to bid against themselves. If I were DD, I'd be entirely fine with a vesting option. I'd even tie it to PA's within the first 3 seasons, which should still encompass JD's prime.

[oldtimer]

I am sure Boras has a deal that JD is very happy with. But Boras isn't about happy. He is about "over the moon" ecstatic. He wants the sox to bid against themselves. If I were DD, I'd be entirely fine with a vesting option. I'd even tie it to PA's within the first 3 seasons, which should still encompass JD's prime.

 

DD is no dummy. He is going to deal in the Red Sox interest. Its my view that it involves making a solid offer and then be willing to walk away if they show themselves unwilling to settle. There are other fish to fry.

[Spudboy]

So I read that the Sox have now acquired another catcher from Arizona. That makes two so far in recent weeks.

 

Are they just replenishing MiLB depth or are they about to try to move one of the incumbents?

[mvp 78]

So I read that the Sox have now acquired another catcher from Arizona. That makes two so far in recent weeks.

 

Are they just replenishing MiLB depth or are they about to try to move one of the incumbents?

 

They are expecting Swihart to make the team this year so there won't be much left in AAA. Just need to fill some spots.

 

If Swihart plays well, Leon will probably be traded or released.

[Spudboy]

They are expecting Swihart to make the team this year so there won't be much left in AAA. Just need to fill some spots.

 

If Swihart plays well, Leon will probably be traded or released.

 

I count 6 catchers at AAA and above.

[kenmeister]

DD is no dummy. He is going to deal in the Red Sox interest. Its my view that it involves making a solid offer and then be willing to walk away if they show themselves unwilling to settle. There are other fish to fry.

 

I'm really glad DD is no dummy. Guy has a banner year going into free agency; we've seen it all the time. Very few of these long-term FA contracts work out. The Sox will be in a great position for next year's FA crop if they keep their salary payments down and get rid of Hanley's contract. Bryce Harper is the prize. I really really hope JD goes for one year, $22 million.

 

Edit: I spoke too soon. Harper is seeking at least a 10-year contract that will likely pay him a minimum of $400 million, a high-ranking Nationals executive told USA TODAY Sports. Nevermind, move on. Nobody's worth that.

[Bellhorn04]

JD Martinez is going to sign for $125 million or thereabouts I believe.

[Bellhorn04]

That $400 million number for Harper seems like a joke to me. If anything this offseason indicates that teams are getting reluctant to sign these megadeals. The days of hyperinflation may be at an end.

[mvp 78]

I count 6 catchers at AAA and above.

 

Butler (re-signed due to knowledge of staff, could be DFA'd at any time)

Romanski (average organizational guy, already had a 50 game drug suspension, could be DFA'd at any time)

Hernandez (flier on a good defensive guy with no bat who lost development time due to Rule V draft)

 

Leon (I think he'll be traded)

Vazquez (starting C)

Swihart (either traded or used as a super sub that can catch)

 

The moves have been for depth mostly. I don't think they brought in Hernandez thinking that it would force a trade for Swihart or Leon. He's not really an MLB ready guy yet.

[mvp 78]

That $400 million number for Harper seems like a joke to me. If anything this offseason indicates that teams are getting reluctant to sign these megadeals. The days of hyperinflation may be at an end.

 

It's $200M for the player, $200M for the hair.

[mvp 78]

Also, Hernandez was in AA last year and couldn't hit .200. Not sure it's going to cause any sort of roster crunch.

[cp176]

That $400 million number for Harper seems like a joke to me. If anything this offseason indicates that teams are getting reluctant to sign these megadeals. The days of hyperinflation may be at an end.

 

Do you think that some of what might be seen as reluctance to sign anyone to the long term might be because there just players worth it in this free agent class?

[Bellhorn04]

Do you think that some of what might be seen as reluctance to sign anyone to the long term might be because there just players worth it in this free agent class?

 

That could be part of it, but I think there's a little more to it.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think he can get $40 mil AAV but I doubt he sniffs a $400 mil guarantee. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. I expect Harper to get a creative $300 mil guarantee with an opt out after 3-4 front loaded seasons on a 10 year contract

 

If I were a signing GM, I’d do the following

 

10 year $300 mil contract. First 4 years $40 mil AAV. Opt out after 4th year. Opt out is null and void if Harper missed 150 games due to injury in first 4 seasons.

[moonslav59]

I would actually be willing to bet that the Red Sox have made the best offer to date and there might not even be any others to begin with. It just seems to me as though if any other teams were actually involved in this process we would have heard some kind of chatter about it by now. Boston has proven that they have the ability to keep things out of the news when they feel the need. As for other teams - just seems strange to me that we haven't at least heard something. Lots of teams would love to have JD but the Sox might be only team that wants to pay him.

 

I agree, but wouldn't it help to know what that next highest bid is or might be? Afterall, we are pinching pennies even with big signings,

[notin]

Don't count out the Giants, who were prepared to spend $290mill on Giancarlo Stanton and might currently have the worst outfield in MLB history. Also the Padres dodged a bullet with Hosmer and can spend that allotment of cash elsewhere. ..

[notin]

Also, Hernandez was in AA last year and couldn't hit .200. Not sure it's going to cause any sort of roster crunch.

 

It's nice to see Dombrowski has the "sign a minor league catcher" thing mastered. How about a minor league deal for a pitcher or two? This team is one arm injury away from relying on Jalen Beeks....

[notin]

The real delay is that Martinez doesn't want the Sox.

 

Martinez had said he doesn't want to DH. Dombrowski has said he wants to sign Martinez as a DH. Big issue here.

 

Martinez is certainly well aware the Sox have a loaded outfield. The obvious resolution is to deal am outfielder to make room, likely Bradley

 

But the Sox really can't deal Bradley until they sign Martinez, because he still might sign elsewhere. And, let's face it, it gives way too much leverage to Boras. The Puig deal wouldn't solve anything, which may have also factored into why it was rejected so quickly. Dealing Bradley for another outfielder just changes the names in the same logjam. ..

 

 

So hence the impasse. ..

[notin]

I think he can get $40 mil AAV but I doubt he sniffs a $400 mil guarantee. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. I expect Harper to get a creative $300 mil guarantee with an opt out after 3-4 front loaded seasons on a 10 year contract

 

If I were a signing GM, I’d do the following

 

10 year $300 mil contract. First 4 years $40 mil AAV. Opt out after 4th year. Opt out is null and void if Harper missed 150 games due to injury in first 4 seasons.

 

Why void the opt out? To force the signing team to pay $140mill over 6 years to a guy who misses nearly 25% of his games?

[Bellhorn04]

Why void the opt out? To force the signing team to pay $140mill over 6 years to a guy who misses nearly 25% of his games?

 

Ah yes...a little glitch there.

[mvp 78]

It's nice to see Dombrowski has the "sign a minor league catcher" thing mastered. How about a minor league deal for a pitcher or two? This team is one arm injury away from relying on Jalen Beeks....

 

I hope Beeks gets a real shot this year.

[mvp 78]

Don't count out the Giants, who were prepared to spend $290mill on Giancarlo Stanton and might currently have the worst outfield in MLB history. Also the Padres dodged a bullet with Hosmer and can spend that allotment of cash elsewhere. ..

 

If I'm an NL team, I'd be very wary of signing Martinez to play LF for 5-6 years, especially at a larger park like SF.

[mvp 78]

The real delay is that Martinez doesn't want the Sox.

 

Martinez had said he doesn't want to DH. Dombrowski has said he wants to sign Martinez as a DH. Big issue here.

 

Martinez is certainly well aware the Sox have a loaded outfield. The obvious resolution is to deal am outfielder to make room, likely Bradley

 

But the Sox really can't deal Bradley until they sign Martinez, because he still might sign elsewhere. And, let's face it, it gives way too much leverage to Boras. The Puig deal wouldn't solve anything, which may have also factored into why it was rejected so quickly. Dealing Bradley for another outfielder just changes the names in the same logjam. ..

 

 

So hence the impasse. ..

 

I still don't believe this is the case. I think they were just saying that in hopes that more bidders would show up. Nothing has indicated that he doesn't want to play for BOS. He even said he'd be fine to DH if he had to.

[Bellhorn04]

I still don't believe this is the case. I think they were just saying that in hopes that more bidders would show up. Nothing has indicated that he doesn't want to play for BOS. He even said he'd be fine to DH if he had to.

 

Boras knows by now that our offer is the best one he's getting. He's just dragging things out to make it look like he's doing his due diligence, so JD can't blame him in any way for falling about $80 million short of what Scotty Boy told the public JD is worth.