2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[notin]

I think JD ends up in Boston too. I'm just glad Dombrowski is not bidding against himself. As far as I can tell, Boston is the only serious suitor for him.

 

The chatter has been surprisingly quiet on Martinez, but I would be surprised if the Sox are the only suitor.

 

I get the whole "patience" tactic, because if the Sox move on, Martinez' price could easily drop to the point where we all look back and wonder what Dombrowski was thinking. Just like with Encarnacion last year and (on the trade front) with Josh Donaldson four years ago, when Cherington was told JD wasn't available and moved on while Alex Anthopolous refused to take no for an answer and acquired Donaldson for relatively little. ..

[moonslav59]

Chavis might be a CIF later in his career, but by the time he is ready, you'll be fighting mediocrity in lux tax hell. Your window is now. If you can get a guy who can win you a title in 2018, you do it

 

Chavis is very close to ML ready right now. His only issue is his defense and position. He could DH day one.

[moonslav59]

He is aware he's allowed to make other deals for other needs while waiting, right?

 

Maybe it all depends on the money. If JD says "yes" we go cheap at other positions. If JD says "no", we spend more at other positions.

[moonslav59]

Close call, but I don't think I'd trade 2 years of Bogey for 1 of Machado. To me such a trade feels like bringing the cliff even closer than it already is.

 

(Alert: Kimmi and I did not bring this up.)

[moonslav59]

... "I Saw That Guy Make An Error Once" Test...

 

Like that one Iggy error in the playoffs that convinced many he was "all flash and no substance"..

[moonslav59]

Not necessarily.

 

First of all, we don't know what money Martinez will be getting.

 

Second, he can make depth moves off the 40-man roster that don't count against the tax...

 

Like JBJ or HRam or Holt?

 

I still think the rest of DD's plans depends on how much money is available with or without JD.

[a700hitter]

The only way a Machado trade makes any sense is if Baltimore allows a window to negotiate (which they reportedly won't) and he'll agree to an extension (which I see little chance of). I could see trading Bogaerts and putting Manny at short in such a scenario, but emptying what's left of the farm for a one-year rental would be nuts, and I don't think even Dombrowski would go there.

I don't think there is any chance of a trade happening with a negotiation window. Machado is going to test the free agent market. He's not going to sign or extend now. The Orioles are also more likely to trade him to a division rival knowing that it might only be for one year. They don't want this guy bashing in the heads of their pitching for 8 years.

[Bellhorn04]

... "I Saw That Guy Make An Error Once" Test...

 

Like that one Iggy error in the playoffs that convinced many he was "all flash and no substance"..

 

It was 2 errors, actually.

[jacksonianmarch]

Chavis is very close to ML ready right now. His only issue is his defense and position. He could DH day one.

 

He’s destined for AA and unless he continues to hit 30+ HR, he’ll be manning a position in the field when he debuts. And I don’t think he’s a 30+ HR guy annually

[S5Dewey]

... "I Saw That Guy Make An Error Once" Test...

 

Like that one Iggy error in the playoffs that convinced many he was "all flash and no substance"..

 

Hey, I'm not the one who brought Iggy's name into this!! But given what's transpired since I'm still not sure the Sox kept the right shortstop.

[notin]

Hey, I'm not the one who brought Iggy's name into this!! But given what's transpired since I'm still not sure the Sox kept the right shortstop.

 

In the last 3 years, Iglesias has been worth 5.2 fWAR. Bogaerts was worth 4.9 fWAR in 2016 alone. The Sox kept the right shortstop.

 

 

Although I stand by my long-held opinion they should have dealt Worthless Will Middlebrooks directly to Chicago and not even bothered with Detroit...

[moonslav59]

He’s destined for AA and unless he continues to hit 30+ HR, he’ll be manning a position in the field when he debuts. And I don’t think he’s a 30+ HR guy annually

 

He'll start the year in AAA and could be called up by May, if needed.

[notin]

Like JBJ or HRam or Holt?

 

I still think the rest of DD's plans depends on how much money is available with or without JD.

 

I was more thinking signing guys to minor league deals.

 

Over the years, I have said a lot of things on this board and BDC and, way back when, ESPN. Not sure how many are true or my warped perception or just my own ill-conceived opinions full of foulness and black magic. But one thing I have always said that will always be absolutely true - there is no such thing as a bad minor league contract...

[Kimmi]

The chatter has been surprisingly quiet on Martinez, but I would be surprised if the Sox are the only suitor.

 

I get the whole "patience" tactic, because if the Sox move on, Martinez' price could easily drop to the point where we all look back and wonder what Dombrowski was thinking. Just like with Encarnacion last year and (on the trade front) with Josh Donaldson four years ago, when Cherington was told JD wasn't available and moved on while Alex Anthopolous refused to take no for an answer and acquired Donaldson for relatively little. ..

 

I'm sure there are other suitors for JD, but are there other suitors who will cough up $150? Perhaps, but I'm not getting the impression that there is a lot of serious competition for him.

 

From a fan's perspective, it's hard having to wait for your team to make its off season moves. But in the end, I think it will work out to the team's advantage.

[Kimmi]

(Alert: Kimmi and I did not bring this up.)

 

I think we're 0 for the last 5 or 6 times it has been brought up.

 

For anyone keeping track.

[Kimmi]

I was more thinking signing guys to minor league deals.

 

Over the years, I have said a lot of things on this board and BDC and, way back when, ESPN. Not sure how many are true or my warped perception or just my own ill-conceived opinions full of foulness and black magic. But one thing I have always said that will always be absolutely true - there is no such thing as a bad minor league contract...

 

Dave is listening. He re-signed Dan Butler to a minor league contract, just for you.

[Bellhorn04]

I think we're 0 for the last 5 or 6 times it has been brought up.

For anyone keeping track.

 

You two made cliff a part of the lexicon here. I hope you're happy.

[S5Dewey]

In the last 3 years, Iglesias has been worth 5.2 fWAR. Bogaerts was worth 4.9 fWAR in 2016 alone. The Sox kept the right shortstop.

 

 

Although I stand by my long-held opinion they should have dealt Worthless Will Middlebrooks directly to Chicago and not even bothered with Detroit...

 

I would say that depends on how much faith you put in WAR, and how much you like defense.

In 2017 Bogaerts had an offense bWAR of 3.4 and defense bWAR of -.04

In 2017 Iggy had an offense bWAR of 1.0 and a defense bWAR of +1.1

 

It looks like Bogaerts had the edge in WAR because of his offense (no surprise there!) but he's not even as good as a replacement player defensively while Iggy is an asset on both sides of the ball.

 

It's much like the situation with JBJ only the opposite. JBJ's defense solidly outweighs his offense but I still like having him out there.

 

But that's just me. That's why, as I said, I'm not sure.....

[notin]

Dave is listening. He re-signed Dan Butler to a minor league contract, just for you.

 

And I didn't get him anything. ..

[moonslav59]

I think we're 0 for the last 5 or 6 times it has been brought up.

 

For anyone keeping track.

 

They only start counting when one of us brings it up.

[notin]

I would say that depends on how much faith you put in WAR, and how much you like defense.

In 2017 Bogaerts had an offense bWAR of 3.4 and defense bWAR of -.04

In 2017 Iggy had an offense bWAR of 1.0 and a defense bWAR of +1.1

 

It looks like Bogaerts had the edge in WAR because of his offense (no surprise there!) but he's not even as good as a replacement player defensively while Iggy is an asset on both sides of the ball.

 

.

 

I don't think you are going to want to use bWAR here, and now that you have you must acknowledge the consequenses

 

The difference between Bogaert's defense and Iglesias' defense is only 1.5 bWAR, or less than half of the contributions Bogaerts' gave at the plate in this one year sample size. You get too caught up in the negative number for Bogerts' defense that you tried to ignore that Iglesias defense - his selling point - isn't significantly better and only 1.1 dWAR above replacement level himself.

 

And really, over the past 3 seasons, Bogaerts has given 12.5 oWAR on offense and 0.5 dWAR. So he is also an asset of both sides as well, right? Over that same stretch, Iglesias oWAR (4.4) is actually better than his selling point dWAR (2.6), which is probably a much less impressive number than many thought Iglesias would receive defensively, and a far, far cry from Andrelton Simmons' 10.2 dWAR in that same stretch.

 

In fact, I don't think B-R likes Iglesias' defense as much as some of Jose's fans do. It credits more dWAR over the past 3 seasons to the following shortstops: Simmons, Brandon Crawford, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Troy Tulowitzki, and Trevor Story (in less than 2 seasons!!) and has the same dWAR as Elvis Andrus and Adeiny Hecheverria.

 

And that is from the names I looked at, as B-R.com is a lot more cumbersome than fangraphs for this kind of thing...

Edited January 1, 2018 by notin

[OH FOY]

I like Butler. Very good Catcher, that never gets a chance.

[Spudboy]

I like Butler. Very good Catcher, that never gets a chance.

 

Me too.

[S5Dewey]

I don't think you are going to want to use bWAR here, and now that you have you must acknowledge the consequenses

 

The difference between Bogaert's defense and Iglesias' defense is only 1.5 bWAR, or less than half of the contributions Bogaerts' gave at the plate in this one year sample size. You get too caught up in the negative number for Bogerts' defense that you tried to ignore that Iglesias defense - his selling point - isn't significantly better and only 1.1 dWAR above replacement level himself.

 

And really, over the past 3 seasons, Bogaerts has given 12.5 oWAR on offense and 0.5 dWAR. So he is also an asset of both sides as well, right? Over that same stretch, Iglesias oWAR (4.4) is actually better than his selling point dWAR (2.6), which is probably a much less impressive number than many thought Iglesias would receive defensively, and a far, far cry from Andrelton Simmons' 10.2 dWAR in that same stretch.

 

Giving my head a good hard shake, wondering which of your points to respond to first..,,,

 

You want to use fWAR because it makes your point better. However, all that's doing is pointing out one of the flaws i see in WAR in that we have two different bodies computing WAR and they can't get it the same. Is there another statistic that's named the same but two bodies get different results??? RBI's? BA? OPS? And people wonder why some of us have little faith in WAR

 

What I said was that I wasn't sure (and I mean exactly that, "not sure") that we kept the right shortstop. Since Simmons was never a part of the Red Sox organization dragging him into it isn't even germane to our discussion. If Simmons were one of the choices between the three the answer would have been obvious - but he wasn't. I'd rather have Simmons than either of the two SS's we're talking about. So what?

 

I'm not sure if you're using fWAR or bWAR to arrive at Iggy's 4.4 oWAR but actually that only strengthens my position that, again, I'm NOT SURE we kept the right SS.

[notin]

Giving my head a good hard shake, wondering which of your points to respond to first..,,,

 

You want to use fWAR because it makes your point better. However, all that's doing is pointing out one of the flaws i see in WAR in that we have two different bodies computing WAR and they can't get it the same. Is there another statistic that's named the same but two bodies get different results??? RBI's? BA? OPS? And people wonder why some of us have little faith in WAR

 

What I said was that I wasn't sure (and I mean exactly that, "not sure") that we kept the right shortstop. Since Simmons was never a part of the Red Sox organization dragging him into it isn't even germane to our discussion. If Simmons were one of the choices between the three the answer would have been obvious - but he wasn't. I'd rather have Simmons than either of the two SS's we're talking about. So what?

 

I'm not sure if you're using fWAR or bWAR to arrive at Iggy's 4.4 oWAR but actually that only strengthens my position that, again, I'm NOT SURE we kept the right SS.

 

Actually both fWAR and bWAR rate Bogaerts as better than Iglesias. Your choice to use bWAR to prove Iglesias' defensive value was questioned by me, as B-R.com does not really value Iglesias' defense as much as many of Iglesias' admirers do.

 

It's OK to be a fan of the defensive player, but really, if you'er going to look for any stat r metric that says Iglesias is a better all around SS than Bogaerts, you are going to search for a long time. That initial "asset on both sides" argument was really not nearly as convincing about anything as you seem to think it was...

[S5Dewey]

Actually both fWAR and bWAR rate Bogaerts as better than Iglesias. Your choice to use bWAR to prove Iglesias' defensive value was questioned by me, as B-R.com does not really value Iglesias' defense as much as many of Iglesias' admirers do.

 

It's OK to be a fan of the defensive player, but really, if you'er going to look for any stat r metric that says Iglesias is a better all around SS than Bogaerts, you are going to search for a long time. That initial "asset on both sides" argument was really not nearly as convincing about anything as you seem to think it was...

 

I'm not going to go looking for any "stat r metric that says Iglesias is a better all around SS than Bogaerts" because I didn't say that he is. What I said was that I'm not sure we made kept the right shortstop, and I'm not. I'm hoping that Bogaerts was injured last year, it affected his offense, and he'll have an OPS of .800+ this year. If/When that happens I'll be surer that the Sox kept the right one.

 

You're a stathead and I'm fine with that. I believe there's something to be said for both stats and 'the eye test' and you (apparently) don't agree. I'm fine with that too. Let it go.

[notin]

The eye test really isn't a fair way to judge players you don't see equally.

[S5Dewey]

At the end of the day there is no perfect way to judge players. Stats have their flaws as does the eye test. For example, you could watch Bogaerts and I both play SS and it wouldn't take you long to figure out which of us is better at it, even without the stats. If the eye test were as useless (my word, not anyone else's) as some make it out to be there'd be no need for scouting - which served baseball well for decades. Stats and the eye test augment one another nicely.

 

In fact, if it weren't for the stats I'd have no doubt that the Sox kept the wrong shortstop. It's the combination of stats and the eye test make me unsure.

 

One thing I'm relatively sure of is that the timing of this whole debate/discussion is the result of my changing my sig line so I'll tell you what I'll do. If you'll take down your insulting sig line I'll take down my equally insulting one.

[notin]

At the end of the day there is no perfect way to judge players. Stats have their flaws as does the eye test. For example, you could watch Bogaerts and I both play SS and it wouldn't take you long to figure out which of us is better at it, even without the stats. If the eye test were as useless (my word, not anyone else's) as some make it out to be there'd be no need for scouting - which served baseball well for decades. Stats and the eye test augment one another nicely.

 

In fact, if it weren't for the stats I'd have no doubt that the Sox kept the wrong shortstop. It's the combination of stats and the eye test make me unsure.

 

One thing I'm relatively sure of is that the timing of this whole debate/discussion is the result of my changing my sig line so I'll tell you what I'll do. If you'll take down your insulting sig line I'll take down my equally insulting one.

 

 

 

And here I was laughing out loud at your signature line and assuming it was directed at me.

 

I don't care if you take yours down or not, but if you are offended by mine, I can remove it. Mine was inspired by and a response to a700's...

Edited January 1, 2018 by notin

[a700hitter]

The eye test really isn't a fair way to judge players you don't see equally.

Some people watch a lot of baseball. You don't need to tack a guy for 162 to evaluate them. Professional scouts can evaluate players in a weekend or less. Non-professionals need more time, but you don't need 162.