2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[moonslav59]

You're right, it was a loose statement by me to say 'all the metrics'. I was only looking at his bWAR and fWAR numbers.

 

If anything this seems like a good reason to just look at total WAR. If you use that he's clearly been a plus player.

 

I have never come close to arguing Bogey is anything less than a solid plus player. I was only speaking of his defense, where I see him as being a bottom third defender and perhaps bottom 4th or 5th tier, if you choose to divide into 4 or 5 groups.

 

Bogey's offense outweighs his defense and then some.

[Elktonnick]

How much is one year of Machado actually worth? Is he worth 3 years of Bradley? Four years of ERod? Six years of Chavis?

 

In what figures to be a lost season in Baltimore, while none of those deals would ever happen, in which ones do the Orioles actually lose out?

 

The point is that it wouldn't be in the Red Sox interest to give up what Angelos would demand to get Machado for a one year rental.

[moonslav59]

I'd trade Bogey, Beeks and Holt for Machado.

[Elktonnick]

I'd trade Bogey, Beeks and Holt for Machado.

 

So would I but I doubt Angelos would.

[moonslav59]

So would I but I doubt Angelos would.

 

I'd try to avoid trading Chavis. He might be our 1Bman or DH someday.

[oldtimer]

I'd try to avoid trading Chavis. He might be our 1Bman or DH someday.

 

Yes, he is an internal asset that miight be able to help us down the line. The problem is that you have to trade a valuable asset to get a valuable asset, so he is definitely trade material. If he is traded, let us hope that we get a player that can help us for a number of years. I see Chavis as a possible second baseman, not a first baseman.

 

The lack of movement by the Sox is really troublesome and speaks to the probability that DD is all in on JD. I mentioned before that we construct an offer that is reasonable and set a drop dead date on it after which we go to plan B. if Boras wants to string teams along then we could wind up getting no one of value.

[jacksonianmarch]

Chavis might be a CIF later in his career, but by the time he is ready, you'll be fighting mediocrity in lux tax hell. Your window is now. If you can get a guy who can win you a title in 2018, you do it

[jacksonianmarch]

New report that DD is waiting on JD. He feels he has the best offer out there and is just waiting for JD to decide where to go. Once he decides, the sox can either move on or be done

[notin]

New report that DD is waiting on JD. He feels he has the best offer out there and is just waiting for JD to decide where to go. Once he decides, the sox can either move on or be done

 

He is aware he's allowed to make other deals for other needs while waiting, right?

[Bellhorn04]

He is aware he's allowed to make other deals for other needs while waiting, right?

 

I hear you, but there are still a pile of other unsigned players out there. I assume DD is hoping for some price reductions on others besides JD.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm still thinking we may get a big impassioned speech from Boras complaining about what's going on this offseason.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd trade Bogey, Beeks and Holt for Machado.

 

Close call, but I don't think I'd trade 2 years of Bogey for 1 of Machado. To me such a trade feels like bringing the cliff even closer than it already is.

[notin]

This is really starting to make me chuckle now. the FIELDING BIBLE - now that sounds pretty damn impressive for sure but Moon are you saying that this BIBLE shows how voters sometimes vary widely on their rankings? I'm looking at the info you have listed and I am seeing quite the discrepancy as well. Who you gonna believe these days? It just is not right when these folks who gather all this information and put it to the test can't be counted on to just agree!

 

 

Really? So three people looking at the same information cannot agree about it and that surprises you? Do you not own a television or follow politics at all? Or at any point in the last half century?

 

 

I know this lack of concrete answers i a fun way to try and disprove fielding metrics over your own eyes. Many have. Yet these same people would look at the Chris Archer argument, even without the fWAR, and come to different conclusions about his status as an ace. When you have this many stats, there is a lot of interpretation sometimes.

 

Coming up with defensive metrics for fielding has been among the toughet tasks, The eye test is actually almost worthlss when done by you or me. Too often it turns into the Reputation TEst (which is probably more accurate but completely independant of our input), or worse the "I Saw That Guy Make An Error Once" Test.

 

And errors are not much of a metric either. They're really just some guy's opinion. The only reason you don't find them as questionable is that games only have one official scorer. I've seen hundreds of errors I would not have called and hundred more hits I thought deserved to be errors. (And probably a few hundred more attributed to the wrong player.)

 

But most people think these are all obvious and the guidelines are accurate. They don't even follow the rule book...

[Bellhorn04]

Speaking of Bogey, there's an article on him in the Globe in which he confirms that he was playing hurt for a big chunk of last year, 'swinging with one hand' as he puts it, and he feels it was probably a bad idea to do it - oh well, right?

 

But it also talks about his offseason training program. He is muscling up. There's a picture of him working out - his arm muscularity looks a little scary.

[notin]

I hear you, but there are still a pile of other unsigned players out there. I assume DD is hoping for some price reductions on others besides JD.

 

I'm talking about addressing even small needs like minor league depth for starting pitching or relievers. Or a bench bat. Or a stopgap 2B. Or any other need this team might have.

 

Twelve weeks and so far he has gotten us Esteban Quiroz and Mike Olt. I get why he hasn't brought JD Martinez or Jake Arrieta or whoever is on his radar. But I don't get why in 12 weeks has has only gotten Esteban Quiroz and Mike Olt. Especially since there is a really good chance both of them are completely worthless...

[Bellhorn04]

I'm talking about addressing even small needs like minor league depth for starting pitching or relievers. Or a bench bat. Or a stopgap 2B. Or any other need this team might have.

 

Twelve weeks and so far he has gotten us Esteban Quiroz and Mike Olt. I get why he hasn't brought JD Martinez or Jake Arrieta or whoever is on his radar. But I don't get why in 12 weeks has has only gotten Esteban Quiroz and Mike Olt. Especially since there is a really good chance both of them are completely worthless...

 

I would agree that the lack of moves at the lower level is worrisome.

[notin]

I would agree that the lack of moves at the lower level is worrisome.

 

Especially since pitchers and catchers report in only 45 days...

[Bellhorn04]

Especially since pitchers and catchers report in only 45 days...

 

Yes, countdown time is upon us.

[jacksonianmarch]

He is aware he's allowed to make other deals for other needs while waiting, right?

 

If he gets JD, then the salary will be right up against the upper limit of the penalty. It’s more an either or rather than a both

[Bellhorn04]

If he gets JD, then the salary will be right up against the upper limit of the penalty. It’s more an either or rather than a both

 

Yeah, there's not much money to work with, you're right about that.

[OH FOY]

Glad DD not doing nothing at this point. Already paying big bucks for a DH. No need there. Have a 1st Baseman, hope the excuses of injuries, and down years by others, are right.

[notin]

If he gets JD, then the salary will be right up against the upper limit of the penalty. It’s more an either or rather than a both

 

Not necessarily.

 

First of all, we don't know what money Martinez will be getting.

 

Second, he can make depth moves off the 40-man roster that don't count against the tax...

[Kimmi]

I'd try to avoid trading Chavis. He might be our 1Bman or DH someday.

 

I've read that the Os are asking for a couple of top prospects, like Chavis and Groome.

 

For a one year rental, it's not worth it. I'd rather stick with Bogey and hope that his hand is fully healed. When healthy, Bogaerts is a pretty darn good player in his own right. I like what I've been hearing from him this offseason.

[Kimmi]

New report that DD is waiting on JD. He feels he has the best offer out there and is just waiting for JD to decide where to go. Once he decides, the sox can either move on or be done

 

And JD is apparently still asking for $200 mil. That price tag is going to have to come way down.

 

I hope Dombrowski waits JD out rather than panicking and giving in to those demands.

[jacksonianmarch]

I still think JD ends up in Boston. The only problem with the JD thing is that him dragging this out decreased Boston's contingency options. A part of me wants to see the sox move on and leave Boras without a suitor

[Kimmi]

He is aware he's allowed to make other deals for other needs while waiting, right?

 

I agree that he could probably be making a couple of depth moves, but outside of that, I'm pretty sure that everything else hinges on whether JD is signed or not.

[Kimmi]

Close call, but I don't think I'd trade 2 years of Bogey for 1 of Machado. To me such a trade feels like bringing the cliff even closer than it already is.

 

!!!

[Jack Flap]

The only way a Machado trade makes any sense is if Baltimore allows a window to negotiate (which they reportedly won't) and he'll agree to an extension (which I see little chance of). I could see trading Bogaerts and putting Manny at short in such a scenario, but emptying what's left of the farm for a one-year rental would be nuts, and I don't think even Dombrowski would go there.

[Kimmi]

Really? So three people looking at the same information cannot agree about it and that surprises you? Do you not own a television or follow politics at all? Or at any point in the last half century?

 

 

I know this lack of concrete answers i a fun way to try and disprove fielding metrics over your own eyes. Many have. Yet these same people would look at the Chris Archer argument, even without the fWAR, and come to different conclusions about his status as an ace. When you have this many stats, there is a lot of interpretation sometimes.

 

Coming up with defensive metrics for fielding has been among the toughet tasks, The eye test is actually almost worthlss when done by you or me. Too often it turns into the Reputation TEst (which is probably more accurate but completely independant of our input), or worse the "I Saw That Guy Make An Error Once" Test.

 

And errors are not much of a metric either. They're really just some guy's opinion. The only reason you don't find them as questionable is that games only have one official scorer. I've seen hundreds of errors I would not have called and hundred more hits I thought deserved to be errors. (And probably a few hundred more attributed to the wrong player.)

 

But most people think these are all obvious and the guidelines are accurate. They don't even follow the rule book...

 

I wonder if people are aware that different sites have different definitions of what 'holds' and 'blown saves' are. Not that it much matters, those are fairly useless stats to begin with, regardless of their inconsistent definitions.

[Kimmi]

I still think JD ends up in Boston. The only problem with the JD thing is that him dragging this out decreased Boston's contingency options. A part of me wants to see the sox move on and leave Boras without a suitor

 

I think JD ends up in Boston too. I'm just glad Dombrowski is not bidding against himself. As far as I can tell, Boston is the only serious suitor for him.