2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Bellhorn04]

I think many of us are surprised that DD has done nothing so far. Disappointed is more like it.

 

I'm disappointed too, but if he signs Martinez on reasonable terms it'll be seen as a good thing. I just hope it's not taking up all his attention staring down the brutal Boras.

[moonslav59]

Rangers Acquire Matt Moore

 

Minor-league righties Sam Wolff and Israel Cruz to San Francisco.

 

I have always liked Moore. I know he's risky, but I'd have taken the gamble.

 

SF is clearing budget space for who?

 

JD Martinez?

 

JD says he want's to play OF not DH. Would the Sox have to trade JBJ for JD to sign with us?

 

Sign JD

 

Trade JBJ in a 3-way deal for Abreu (add Travis or Ockimey)?

 

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Moore saw a worrisome drop in velocity AND a rise in HR rate. That would concern the hell out of me, especially with him playing half his games in spacious AT&T park. Moore in Texas is going to be a Juggs machine if he doesn't get his velocity back

[Spudboy]

I'm disappointed too, but if he signs Martinez on reasonable terms it'll be seen as a good thing. I just hope it's not taking up all his attention staring down the brutal Boras.

 

Speaking of staring down Boras. I just saw this on trade rumors:

 

"There is considerable interest in how many years J.D. Martinez will land in his next contract, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes. Many in the industry feel Martinez will easily net a five-year deal, though going beyond that for a player who just turned 30 last August could test the comfort zone of several teams, including the Red Sox. (MLBTR, for the record, predicted Martinez for a six-year, $150MM deal.) Scott Boras, Martinez’s agent, set an early asking price of seven years and $210MM for his client, which seems like a very optimistic number now but Boras has a penchant for waiting under deeper in the offseason until he can find his clients an acceptable deal. This has made Boston’s pursuit of Martinez feel like “a staring contest” between Boras and Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, ESPN.com’s Scott Lauber writes, as Dombrowski is traditionally more aggressive in quickly landing his desired targets."

 

 

So if Borass has set such a ridiculous asking price what should a GM do?

 

I am confident that all these GM guys know about what other GM guys are wanting and capable of doing. If so, just wait it out after telling them a counter.

 

Make sure you say you are in all the way when the price is more reasonable and walk the f*** away with another Bourbon in your hand.

 

f*** Borass. He is no genius. He's just a prick.

[jacksonianmarch]

Boras is a genius. He is the king of agent bluster. He is all about the risk reward ratio. Some of his clients get burned, most get well rewarded. JD is a top 5 power bat in all of baseball and he will be paid like one. Thing is, the 7 yrs $210 mil is ridiculous and Boras knows it. The cost will come down, but I don't think it comes down below the $25 mil per annum mark. With relievers raking in $10 mil per year, an elite power hitter should bring in $25 mil for sure. I think Boras knows that Boston is the best option from a financial perspective. What I think JD has asked Boras to do is drive up the prices offered by the NL teams so he can play defense. If a team like SF or AZ comes close to the Boston offer, he isn't coming. But I don't think anyone will. I think this staring contest will be won by Boston. I can see 5 yrs $125 mil maybe with a vesting option for year 6

[Spudboy]

Boras is a genius. He is the king of agent bluster. He is all about the risk reward ratio. Some of his clients get burned, most get well rewarded. JD is a top 5 power bat in all of baseball and he will be paid like one. Thing is, the 7 yrs $210 mil is ridiculous and Boras knows it. The cost will come down, but I don't think it comes down below the $25 mil per annum mark. With relievers raking in $10 mil per year, an elite power hitter should bring in $25 mil for sure. I think Boras knows that Boston is the best option from a financial perspective. What I think JD has asked Boras to do is drive up the prices offered by the NL teams so he can play defense. If a team like SF or AZ comes close to the Boston offer, he isn't coming. But I don't think anyone will. I think this staring contest will be won by Boston. I can see 5 yrs $125 mil maybe with a vesting option for year 6

 

I still say he's not a genius. Just a prick.

 

Of course I would hire him.

[harmony]

Speaking of staring down Boras. I just saw this on trade rumors:

 

"There is considerable interest in how many years J.D. Martinez will land in his next contract, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes. Many in the industry feel Martinez will easily net a five-year deal, though going beyond that for a player who just turned 30 last August could test the comfort zone of several teams, including the Red Sox. (MLBTR, for the record, predicted Martinez for a six-year, $150MM deal.) Scott Boras, Martinez’s agent, set an early asking price of seven years and $210MM for his client, which seems like a very optimistic number now but Boras has a penchant for waiting under deeper in the offseason until he can find his clients an acceptable deal. This has made Boston’s pursuit of Martinez feel like “a staring contest” between Boras and Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, ESPN.com’s Scott Lauber writes, as Dombrowski is traditionally more aggressive in quickly landing his desired targets."

 

So if Borass has set such a ridiculous asking price what should a GM do?

 

I am confident that all these GM guys know about what other GM guys are wanting and capable of doing. If so, just wait it out after telling them a counter.

 

Make sure you say you are in all the way when the price is more reasonable and walk the f*** away with another Bourbon in your hand.

 

f*** Borass. He is no genius. He's just a prick.

An agent wants to negotiate the best deal for his or her client; a club's front office wants to negotiate the best deal for the team.

 

That doesn't make anyone on either side a prick. Boras' current asking price for J.D. Martinez may be no more ridiculous than the best offer received to date.

 

Baseball players flock to Scott Boras because he is probably the best agent in the game. Competent front offices deal with it.

[jacksonianmarch]

Great analysis. So you are going to postulate an injury to one of the Sox starters as proof that Cole is a better pitcher? Two can play at that game. Lets say Cole gets injured and can only pitch 100 innings this year and Porcello has a rebound year with an ERA under 4. Cole isn't even my number 4 SP any more.

I deal in what is real performance by historical data; you deal in what might be.

If all the pitchers mentioned are healthy, Cole is my number 4 SP this year.

 

Einstein, what I meant was Pom doesn’t go deep into games. His IP/start average is sub 6 which is atrocious. He hasn’t reached 180IP in a season because of his overabundance of pitches thrown per inning. This burns Your pen. Yes, he’s effective in the 5.2IP he averages, but he leaves the pen more work than he should.

 

Also, anyone touting Porcello above Cole is an idiot, plain and simple.

[notin]

Einstein, what I meant was Pom doesn’t go deep into games. His IP/start average is sub 6 which is atrocious. He hasn’t reached 180IP in a season because of his overabundance of pitches thrown per inning. This burns Your pen. Yes, he’s effective in the 5.2IP he averages, but he leaves the pen more work than he should.

 

Also, anyone touting Porcello above Cole is an idiot, plain and simple.

 

Over the last 2 seasons, Porcello has been worth 7.1 fWAR and Cole worth only 5.6.

 

Considering that Porcello skipped most of the minors and did a lot of his development work in the majors, he's been a remarkably consistent pitcher over his career. His 2016 does stand out, but so does Cole's 2017 as a career year. And for as young as Cole is, Porcello is only 21 months older, which isn't much considering he has 4 more full seasons of MLB experience...

[moonslav59]

Don't bid against yourself, DD.

 

Set a more than fair number and walk away.

[Larry Cook]

Don't bid against yourself, DD.

 

Set a more than fair number and walk away.

 

Amen brother! There is not a deep market for JD. We have to guard against bidding against ourselves!

 

Dave needs to continue to put together the three way trade for abreu while continuing to monitor the temperature on jd’s Market.

[moonslav59]

Amen brother! There is not a deep market for JD. We have to guard against bidding against ourselves!

 

Dave needs to continue to put together the three way trade for abreu while continuing to monitor the temperature on jd’s Market.

 

I'd hate to lose 3 years of JBJ in a 3-way for 2 years of Abreu at more money, but this line-up looks killer:

 

1) Betts

2) Beni

3) Abreu

4) JD

5) Devers

6) HRam

7) Bogey

8) Pedey

9 Vaz

[oldtimer]

I'd hate to lose 3 years of JBJ in a 3-way for 2 years of Abreu at more money, but this line-up looks killer:

 

1) Betts

2) Beni

3) Abreu

4) JD

5) Devers

6) HRam

7) Bogey

8) Pedey

9 Vaz

 

Losing the shot at Santana bothered me as I could see him where you now slot Abreu and probably at a lower cost to the organization. I also would not count on Pedey being back before the AS break and then who knows how well he will be able to play. The way it is currently going, I wouldn't count on getting more than one power bat.

[jacksonianmarch]

I still think you’re in for two. I still think the sox get JD. JD might want to play the OF, but his insistence might cost him $30-$40 million. I doubt he leaves that kind of dough on the table as he was a late bloomer and this is his only shot at a big contract.

 

I also think you’re going to sign either Duda, Adams or Morrison to platoon with Hanley. It’s a money saving move by preventing Hanley from hitting his option.

[cp176]

If Hanley is still with us come opening day, and it is possible that he won't be, and if he produces at the plate, he will play. I don't see the franchise dinking along playing the next year's option game with him. Pretty simple - if he hits he will play.

[moonslav59]

I still think you’re in for two. I still think the sox get JD. JD might want to play the OF, but his insistence might cost him $30-$40 million. I doubt he leaves that kind of dough on the table as he was a late bloomer and this is his only shot at a big contract.

 

I also think you’re going to sign either Duda, Adams or Morrison to platoon with Hanley. It’s a money saving move by preventing Hanley from hitting his option.

 

I agree, and I think signing a guy like Duda (with JD) makes more sense than just for the reasons you mentioned.

 

1) JD will play in the OF every time we need to rest someone. That could be 15-20 games right there.

2) I know I will catch some grief for saying this, and I'm not advocating a platoon, but Beni needs to prove he can hit LHP'ers pretty quickly in 2018, or we may want to sit him versus the best of them. (Beni's career splits .838 vs .583) This could add 20-25 more games to JD in the OF.

3) Someone gets hurt out of HRam, JBJ, Beni or Betts and Duda plays FT or at least vs all RHPs.

 

If we give JD 30-35 games in LF, that leaves 162 at 1B and maybe 35 at DH for HRam & Duda to split. Maybe that's 200 games or almost 900 PAs:

 

480 for HRam (no vest, including starting vs just about all LHPs)

400 for Duda (vs just about all RHPs)

[moonslav59]

If Hanley is still with us come opening day, and it is possible that he won't be, and if he produces at the plate, he will play. I don't see the franchise dinking along playing the next year's option game with him. Pretty simple - if he hits he will play.

 

I agree. He gets 650+ PAs, if he's healthy and hitting, but what are the odds of both happening?

 

Not good.

 

Why not make a contingency plan for something likely to happen?

 

These numbers should make everyone think we need support for HRam:

 

33 first basemen have had 900+ PAs vs RHPs since 2015, and here is where HRam and others rank in OPS:

 

7. Hosmer .879

11. Abreu .862

13. Santana .840

14. Duda .834

17. Reynolds .817

19. Morrison .810

23. Alonso .785

25. Moreland .782

27. HRam .767

 

One can argue we should platoon HRam or at least sit him vs tough righties, without the vesting option as an excuse.

 

More telling are the ISO numbers:

 

4. Duda .255

13. Morrison .235

14. Santana .234

19. Moreland .210

24. Reynolds .199

28. Hosmer .187

29. HRam .179

32. Alonso .156

 

Edited December 16, 2017 by moonslav59

[notin]

If the Red Sox are truly all in to win in yhe next two seasons, they aren't and shouldn't muck about playing games with Hanley's option. Either he hits well enough to play or he doesn't and gets benched for someone better.

 

Considering all the money they're paying guys not on the team, why is Hanley such a huge concern?

[cp176]

I think that is exactly what the Red Sox should and will do with Hanley. Where you and I might disagree is that I don't think that it has anything to do with a special sense of urgency with respect to being "all in" for the next two seasons. Just seems to me what any team should do especially an organization like the Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

If the Red Sox are truly all in to win in yhe next two seasons, they aren't and shouldn't muck about playing games with Hanley's option. Either he hits well enough to play or he doesn't and gets benched for someone better.

 

Considering all the money they're paying guys not on the team, why is Hanley such a huge concern?

 

Look at his numbers vs RHPs. These are not typical 1B or DH numbers.

 

I'm not taking about spending $20M a year on a back-up. Duda is projected to make $6M x 1.

 

Forget the vesting option: we need power, and Duda has some of the best ISO numbers in MLB. He's cheap.

 

We need power.

 

We need low cost players.

 

Win-win.

 

If HRam doesn't make the vesting option, that's just gravy. If he does, it's because he hit well enough (win-win) or Duda/JD got hurt.

[notin]

Look at his numbers vs RHPs. These are not typical 1B or DH numbers.

 

I'm not taking about spending $20M a year on a back-up. Duda is projected to make $6M x 1.

 

Forget the vesting option: we need power, and Duda has some of the best ISO numbers in MLB. He's cheap.

 

We need power.

 

We need low cost players.

 

Win-win.

 

If HRam doesn't make the vesting option, that's just gravy. If he does, it's because he hit well enough (win-win) or Duda/JD got hurt.

 

His numbers vs RHP were held back by a shoulder injury. If he's healthy, let him hit.

[moonslav59]

His numbers vs RHP were held back by a shoulder injury. If he's healthy, let him hit.

 

I've said all along, if he hits, he can get 650 PAs. It still makes sense (assuming we sign JD) to have Duda- just in case HRam or JD gets hurt or an OF'er.

 

$6M is Chris Young money.

 

JD has never hat maximum PAs.

 

HRam is fragile and declining.

 

Beni may need to be platooned vs LHPs.

 

There's room to give Duda 350+ PAs without messing with a healthy and productive HRam.

[notin]

I've said all along, if he hits, he can get 650 PAs. It still makes sense (assuming we sign JD) to have Duda- just in case HRam or JD gets hurt or an OF'er.

 

$6M is Chris Young money.

 

JD has never hat maximum PAs.

 

HRam is fragile and declining.

 

Beni may need to be platooned vs LHPs.

 

There's room to give Duda 350+ PAs without messing with a healthy and productive HRam.

 

JD is likely going to the OF. Benintendi would play either RF or CF.

 

If the idea is to have a backup for those player, Duda isn't going to do it. The Sox need someone who can play the OF.

 

Fortuantely, we have AAARP member Bryce Brentz to do that job!!

 

Maybe the Sox should consider a reserve OF with some batting skills, and not Lucas Duda. Sure it can be someone capable of handling 1b (Jay Bruce? John Jaso?) Finding someone who can also play CF makes it difficult, although one guy with surprising power and elite CF defensive skills who is on no one's radar and would make an excellent backup OF who could in a pinch serve as a part time DH option is Franklin "Death to Flying Things" Gutierrez...

[FredLynn]

Einstein, what I meant was Pom doesn’t go deep into games. His IP/start average is sub 6 which is atrocious. He hasn’t reached 180IP in a season because of his overabundance of pitches thrown per inning. This burns Your pen. Yes, he’s effective in the 5.2IP he averages, but he leaves the pen more work than he should.

 

Also, anyone touting Porcello above Cole is an idiot, plain and simple.

 

What is idiotic is that you, as a Yankee fan, can postulate injuries or other factors in a futile attempt to dilute what the data says about performance of Red Sox pitchers in order to elevate in your own mind the performance of a guy your team might eventually sign. Pomeranz is not injured yet. No one is injured yet. What Pomeranz has done ON THE FIELD during the time he is there is better than what Cole has done on the field while he is there. That is all I am saying. Given the choice in starting pitchers I will always take the guy who surrenders fewer runs.

[a700hitter]

CC resigned with the Yankees. Good move by them.

[dgalehouse]

People are getting too antsy. Be patient. Patience is a virtue. This team does not need a complete overhaul. A slight improvement over last year will do. It will happen.

[a700hitter]

People are getting too antsy. Be patient. Patience is a virtue. This team does not need a complete overhaul. A slight improvement over last year will do. It will happen.

The Yankee’s have improved themselves and we beat them by 1 game. We need more than fine tuning.

[harmony]

The Dodgers and Braves execute a creative salary swap:

 

 

 

The Braves have already designated Adrian Gonzalez for assignment:

 

[moonslav59]

The Dodgers and Braves execute a creative salary swap:

 

 

 

The Braves have already designated Adrian Gonzalez for assignment:

 

 

The Kemp money is spread over 2 years, while the AGon, Kazmir and McCarthey money is all 2018.

 

This puts the Dodgers below $197M. They've been over the limit 5 straight years.

 

AGon is toast. Sad.

 

[harmony]

AGon is toast. Sad.

But the Red Sox remain in the market for a first baseman ...