2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[notin]

Thornburg may not come back until mid season, if ever.

 

I have to give credit to Dombrowski for his ability to constantly make deals for relievers we can't get 5 innings from.

 

If I'm Bryan Shaw, I avoid the Sox and this Curse of Dombrowski's Bullpen. Something thst has plagued him for nearly a decade now is one form or another...

[Carpin]

Of course they could use some MLB talent to either trade or to get actual trade bait.

 

Kimbrel leaps to mind. The Sox have other experienced closers (Smith, Thornburg). Kimbrel only has one year left anyway.

 

And if two months of Aroldis Chapman is worth Gleyber Torres, Billy McMillan, Adam Warren and more, what is a full year of Kimbrel worth?

 

I'm talking to you, Jeff Luhnow...

 

If you want to know Kimbrel current value, you need to start with the package the Sox gave for him two years ago: Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen. That was the value of Kimbrel with three years of team control, his value with only one year should be far less than that. But he's one of the top three RP in the game, you might get something better if he's traded during the season, by the way, I don't think the Red Sox trade Kimbrel, I bet they will try to extend him.

 

Regarding the Chapman, the Yankees basically got Gleyber Torres, because Adam Warren was just a throw-in (he was terrible the first half of the year), Billy McKinney prospect value was very low and Rashad Crawford, which value was never high. I know this deal was a huge win by Cashman and the Yankees scouting team, but it was a win-win at the end, the cubs got their first WS in a century and the Yankees got the prospects they wanted. At the end of

[moonslav59]

I have to give credit to Dombrowski for his ability to constantly make deals for relievers we can't get 5 innings from.

 

If I'm Bryan Shaw, I avoid the Sox and this Curse of Dombrowski's Bullpen. Something thst has plagued him for nearly a decade now is one form or another...

 

Well, Kimbrel escaped the jinx.

 

Reed gave us 5+ IP.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, Kimbrel escaped the jinx.

 

Reed gave us 5+ IP.

 

And Ziegler did well.

[mvp 78]

Yes, for 2-3 more team-controlled years.

 

They wouldn't be playing in BOS though.

[harmony]

2015 Carson Smith * Small sample size alert

 

OPS Against .539 (.519 career)

 

.572 Late & Close (.536 career)

.408 2 outs RISP (.405 career)

.625 High Leverage (.603 career)

 

.505 vs RHBs (.516 career)

.582 vs LHBs (.522 career)

 

It should be noted that Smith's numbers outside of 2015 are actually better.

 

Baseball Reference projects Carson Smith with a 2018 ERA of 3.72 in only 29 innings:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithca02.shtml

[moonslav59]

Baseball Reference projects Carson Smith with a 2018 ERA of 3.72 in only 29 innings:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithca02.shtml

 

29 IP seems to be projecting future injury issues.

 

While that could happen, Smith looked pretty good to end this season. I'm expecting much better, and my guess is most GMs would.

[mvp 78]

29 IP seems to be projecting future injury issues.

 

While that could happen, Smith looked pretty good to end this season. I'm expecting much better, and my guess is most GMs would.

 

It's a projection based on past performance and he missed almost 2 full seasons.

[moonslav59]

It's a projection based on past performance and he missed almost 2 full seasons.

 

Yes, I get it, but that doesn't mean I agree with 29 innings or the high ERA and WHIP.

[mvp 78]

Yes, I get it, but that doesn't mean I agree with 29 innings or the high ERA and WHIP.

 

That's fine. I just think a computer spits out the projections and they get posted for better or worse. I don't think actual humans have any real input in the process. The projections are basically hogwash.

[harmony]

That's fine. I just think a computer spits out the projections and they get posted for better or worse. I don't think actual humans have any real input in the process. The projections are basically hogwash.

The widely cited projections are graded each year:

 

http://mrcheatsheet.com/2017/03/29/best-baseball-projections/

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/1/8/14189138/pecota-zips-steamer-marcel-projection-systems-graded

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/1/25/14366728/pecota-zips-steamer-marcel-projecting-pitchers-graded

[mvp 78]

The widely cited projections are graded each year:

 

http://mrcheatsheet.com/2017/03/29/best-baseball-projections/

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/1/8/14189138/pecota-zips-steamer-marcel-projection-systems-graded

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/1/25/14366728/pecota-zips-steamer-marcel-projecting-pitchers-graded

 

Hogwash.

[Bellhorn04]

Hogwash.

 

Good word, isn't it.

[mvp 78]

@EvanDrellich

 

Red Sox announce they’re tendering contracts to all 34 of their guys. Nobody non-tendered.

[moonslav59]

@EvanDrellich

 

Red Sox announce they’re tendering contracts to all 34 of their guys. Nobody non-tendered.

 

So, we're going to pay Holt $2M plus the luxury tax.

 

(I guess we could DFA him after we sign a FA, but does that mean we still owe him $2M, if nobody claims him?)

[Spudboy]

Some of us might not see things the same way that you and a very few others do. It is a wonderful thing to be entitled to an opinion. You and a few others come off quite often as sounding like you are right and that there just isn't any other way to look at things. Sadly, on occasion, it does come off as sounding condescending. Personally, I'm ok with that because I am confident that the people posting here really don't know what will ultimately happen. I am just a fan. I do not believe in fictional things such as cliffs. As I have been informed on numerous occasions, I am short sighted and I just fail to see the future as it actually is. That is ok as well - I am just a fan who really doesn't claim to be an expert at really anything. What I do honestly believe is that I know as much about the actual gamel and how it is played as anyone posting here does. That is what matters to me. Starting to sound like a case of apple trees and fir trees to me. Sadly, it seems, we are taking sides.

 

Yup.

[Kimmi]

So, we're going to pay Holt $2M plus the luxury tax.

 

(I guess we could DFA him after we sign a FA, but does that mean we still owe him $2M, if nobody claims him?)

 

I have no problem with tendering Holt. I like the guy. I think he deserves a chance to show what he can do if he is fully recovered from his concussion.

[moonslav59]

I have no problem with tendering Holt. I like the guy. I think he deserves a chance to show what he can do if he is fully recovered from his concussion.

 

We do have a great need at 2B, at least until June, but I'm looking at us ending up dangerously close to the second penalty phase luxury tax limit (we need an acronym for this term), and Holt's $2M might be enough to put us over or prevent us from signing who we want.

[a700hitter]

I predict a big move by the Red Sox by Wednesday. I thought that something would have have happened already, but I am revising my prediction to Wednesday at the latest. I think season regular season tickets go on sale on Saturday. The pattern of the Red Sox has been to create some buzz with a big move before that happens.

[moonslav59]

I predict a big move by the Red Sox by Wednesday. I thought that something would have have happened already, but I am revising my prediction to Wednesday at the latest. I think season regular season tickets go on sale on Saturday. The pattern of the Red Sox has been to create some buzz with a big move before that happens.

 

It looks like we have no chance at Stanton, so maybe we go hard for JD and sign him soon.

 

One problem with the timing might be that some teams are holding off on making a firm competitive offer for JD until after Stanton is traded. JD's agent might be waiting it out.

[Jack Flap]

I predict a big move by the Red Sox by Wednesday. I thought that something would have have happened already, but I am revising my prediction to Wednesday at the latest. I think season regular season tickets go on sale on Saturday. The pattern of the Red Sox has been to create some buzz with a big move before that happens.

 

I hope you're right!

[notin]

It looks like we have no chance at Stanton, so maybe we go hard for JD and sign him soon.

 

One problem with the timing might be that some teams are holding off on making a firm competitive offer for JD until after Stanton is traded. JD's agent might be waiting it out.

 

JDs agent is Boras. He is going to wait it out.

 

I do agree the Sox will want some sort of splash before tickets go on sale...

[notin]

We do have a great need at 2B, at least until June, but I'm looking at us ending up dangerously close to the second penalty phase luxury tax limit (we need an acronym for this term), and Holt's $2M might be enough to put us over or prevent us from signing who we want.

 

I can't believe they tendered Holt at all...

[Jack Flap]

Jon Morosi @jonmorosi

Sources: #Marlins have agreed to general framework of Giancarlo Stanton trades with both #STLCards and #SFGiants; the deals are on hold, while Marlins wait for Stanton to inform them whether he’d accept either trade. @MLB @MLBNetwork

2:47 PM · Dec 3, 2017

[Hitch]

Jon Morosi @jonmorosi

Sources: #Marlins have agreed to general framework of Giancarlo Stanton trades with both #STLCards and #SFGiants; the deals are on hold, while Marlins wait for Stanton to inform them whether he’d accept either trade. @MLB @MLBNetwork

2:47 PM · Dec 3, 2017

 

I'd love for us to get Stanton as he's 100% opting out and it would be perfect for us. Get the best years and let him ride out the career on the West Coast with no cost to ourselves for the late years. Not going to happen though, clearly.

[Bellhorn04]

JDs agent is Boras. He is going to wait it out.

 

I'm just waiting for Boras to make some big grandstanding speech claiming nefarious activity by the owners because of the lack of action on the free agency front.

[Kimmi]

It looks like the Sox may be officially out of the Stanton chase:

 

Craig Mish‏Verified account @CraigMish

26m26 minutes ago

 

Source : Red Sox no longer in discussion for Giancarlo Stanton.

Were considered longshot.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Stanton is headed to the Giants.

[moonslav59]

I can't believe they tendered Holt at all...

 

Does giving him the contract mean we are on the hook for his contract or can we DFA him later and be free of any obligations?

[Jack Flap]

It looks like the Sox may be officially out of the Stanton chase:

 

Craig Mish‏Verified account @CraigMish

26m26 minutes ago

 

Source : Red Sox no longer in discussion for Giancarlo Stanton.

Were considered longshot.

 

Feels like this writing has been on the wall for a little while now.

 

At least I can be glad that it looks like he's staying out of the AL, and hopeful that his eventual decision will help set some other moves in motion...