2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[moonslav59]

I enjoyed the hell out of 2013. I was miserable with Ben when we were in last place. You might have liked the utter futility of being out of a pennant race by the end of April, but I didn't, and the prospect of getting a high draft pick didn't buoy my spirits at all.

 

Edit: Ben showed no ability to build a good pitching staff. When he left the organization, it was almost entirely bereft of pitching talent. I wasn't predicting doom under Ben. We were living in doom.

 

As for your lack of optimism about 2021- 2022, you have no solid basis for that lack of optimism except your fatalistic outlook. You have no clue what our major league roster or minor system will be like that far down the road. Sorry, but I am not buying into you being the Baseball Nostradamus. I don't buy into Nostradamus.

 

Our 2020-2022 years would look better, if we still had Moncada, Kopech, Margot, Espinoza, Dubon, Basabe and others. Of course, our present would look worse. It boggles my mind, which is not the same as being miserable, that you can not see that taking that amount of top young talent out of the system is not going to have a big influence 2-7 years down the road.

 

I'm fine with arguing how much that might be, and if it's enough to project a cliff or not, but "many fans", as you like to say are in denial about the cost to the future these trades created.

 

I loved the sale trade. I'm far from miserable. I believe ben would have made a trade or two like that one. You seem to choose to believe Ben was never going to make a trade. Neither can prove our beliefs, and I'm fine with giving up on that sort of speculation, but I think there is evidence enough to show there is a very distinct possibility that all these trades will adversely (I feel by a great factor) affect the team from 2020 or 2021 and onwards. The chances all those guys or even all but one fail are astronomical. Kimbrel, Pom and Sale will be long gone, and if we resign them, one can argue we could have signed them as FAs and still had our prospects to keep or trade for others.

 

The Kimbrel and Pom trades look very good right now. I liked both players when we made the trades, and both have certainly lived up to their expectations, but their years of team control are limited. Sale is a different story. He's an ace making dirt for pay. I loved that trade, but even that one will very likely have future consequences.

 

[a700hitter]

 

I'm fine with arguing how much that might be, and if it's enough to project a cliff or not, but "many fans", as you like to say are in denial about the cost to the future these trades created.

 

 

People are not in denial about the cost of these trades, if any, to the future, but none among us is Nostradamus. We have no idea of intervening transactions or draft classes over the next several years, so we have no basis to predict doom. Every deal has cascading effects, but countermeasures and adjustments will be taken and made. The quality of those decisions is what will define the future success of the team.

[cp176]

People are not in denial about the cost of these trades, if any, to the future, but none among us is Nostradamus. We have no idea of intervening transactions or draft classes over the next several years, so we have no basis to predict doom. Every deal has cascading effects, but countermeasures and adjustments will be taken and made. The quality of those decisions is what will define the future success of the team.

 

We also have no way of actually knowing what the future may bring for any of the players traded away. I'm a fan not the GM thus I really get excited about the next season and not so much about what might happen 2 or more years down the road. I understand that it is something to talk about for sure but when someone beats this foolish cliff concept to death I do see an element of misery and doom and gloom in their forecast which doesn't work for me.

[dgalehouse]

I see no reason why the Sox cannot remain a contender for the forseeable future. A good young core of talent. Plenty of revenue. A demanding fan base. Good management. As for young prospects , there will be more coming along , some who we have never heard of as yet. You only need a few to click. No need to worry about imaginary cliffs.

[Hugh2]

Stock piling players in the farm didn't really serve us particularly well and is not a philosophy that I think of when I think of rebuilding anything. it is about the quality not quantity. Of all the prospects that have been dealt recently, I will anxiously await the day that one of them proves to be just a little better than Margot. I really don't see what I consider to be that many young "stars" that came along while Ben was here. Lots of decent quantity i guess but outside of Betts maybe Beninetendi, maybe Devers someday. Oh well, i'm just an old lifelong fan who wants to have something to look forward to each year. I like the aggressive, competitive approach that our current GM has.

 

Stocking the farm is enirely 100% why we're where we are. The farm exists to supplement the big club be through development or trades. Guys like Betts, Benintendi, Vasquez, Boaerts, JBJ all came from stock piling the farm. Guys like Pomeranz, Sale, and Kimbrel came from having a stock piled farm.

[bowman]

I agree, so many things good and bad can occur between now and then. Take it year by year and just try to keep improving. The right 2 or 3 moves can make all the differance in the world. Just as the wrong couple of moves can backfire. That being said, I feel the one guy that must have management edgy is Bogey. He has been good, but is he going to be the elite player, the show stopper, right now I think not. If he was, he could take the offense to the next level. He just seems like a tough one to figure right now. Just saying

[Hugh2]

This team does have a nice solid core, a core that's going to get very expensive. This team will have some tough choices in a few years, that might entail them being willing to spend significantly over the luxury tax to be competitive.

[Hugh2]

In a vacuum, none of DD's trades look bad. My biggest issue was I thought he started the sell-off and go for it process 1-2 years too soon. Ben C. wasn't perfect either, if I was him I would have loved to of had that John Lakey trade back. He tried being the smartest guy in the room by being a seller and thinking he was buying low on MLB proven talent. If you're sellers you're sellers, he should of just stock piled the farm even further.

 

As another poster earlier pointed out, you can re-stock the farm in almost one year IF you're willing to sell off your team at the deadline. The Yankees system took a giant leap forward by selling off their bullpen.

[Bellhorn04]

In a vacuum, none of DD's trades look bad. My biggest issue was I thought he started the sell-off and go for it process 1-2 years too soon.

 

Why too soon? 2016 was David Ortiz's final season. And we did, after all, succeed to the extent of winning the division the last 2 seasons.

[Hugh2]

Why too soon? 2016 was David Ortiz's final season. And we did, after all, succeed to the extent of winning the division the last 2 seasons.

 

More of a preference with me. DD paid to turn a bad team into a good team, I'd rather see a team build from within and then pay to turn a good team into a great team. I think if you do it the second way you extend your window. To each their own....that's what I wanted to see, I'm also 35 and not going to die anytime soon so perhaps that influences my philosophy.

[Kimmi]

Hopefully they don't trade Bradley (for a 1b?) to accomodate Martinez in the OF. Bradley is the better all around player of the two, so it better be a great return...

 

I hope they don't trade Bradley, period. I think it was you who posted earlier that you hope they don't break up our OF. I tend to agree with that.

[Kimmi]

The cliff is entirely self-determined. It cannot be a true cliff if none of your stars will be even 29 by then.

 

I agree that the cliff is self-determined, just at creating the cliff was self-determined. As of now, it exists. We will see if it still exists in 2-3 years.

[Kimmi]

You said I was miserable and then said it wasn't directed at me. Even if your first post wasn't directed at me, your second clearly was, and that was the one that used the word "miserable".

 

You acted like you knew my feelings then said you do not pretend to know people's feelings.

 

There is no need for you to defend yourself Moon.

 

Defend your baseball positions, which you do very well.

 

There's no need to defend the other garbage.

[Kimmi]

Most of us seem to think it's kind of pointless to project what the Red Sox are going to look like that far in the future. What is the purpose? What is the benefit?

 

What is the purpose, the point, or the benefit of projecting anything regarding the Red Sox then? We can't control any of it. It's just discussion and debate. It's what we do here.

[Kimmi]

You can bet GMs think about it all the time.

 

I'm not hung up on what the Sox will look like in 2-4 years. I'm not "miserable" over it either.

 

There are "benefits" to planning for the future, and that entails actually thinking about it and planning accordingly. I don;t think DD has done enough to plan for that post window period. I don't need a personal benefit to give me reason to think about it.

 

I'm perfectly capable of really enjoying the present while having concerns about the future. It's not an either/or situation.

 

You guys act like you enjoy the games more because you choose not to worry about the future. I don't see it that way.

 

GMs should be thinking about the long term as well as the short term. If they're not, then they're not doing their job correctly. Any move made today should be made with an eye on how that will affect the team 3-4-5 years down the road.

[Kimmi]

Stocking the farm is enirely 100% why we're where we are. The farm exists to supplement the big club be through development or trades. Guys like Betts, Benintendi, Vasquez, Boaerts, JBJ all came from stock piling the farm. Guys like Pomeranz, Sale, and Kimbrel came from having a stock piled farm.

 

+100

[Kimmi]

In a vacuum, none of DD's trades look bad. My biggest issue was I thought he started the sell-off and go for it process 1-2 years too soon. Ben C. wasn't perfect either, if I was him I would have loved to of had that John Lakey trade back. He tried being the smartest guy in the room by being a seller and thinking he was buying low on MLB proven talent. If you're sellers you're sellers, he should of just stock piled the farm even further.

 

As another poster earlier pointed out, you can re-stock the farm in almost one year IF you're willing to sell off your team at the deadline. The Yankees system took a giant leap forward by selling off their bullpen.

 

The Lackey trade certainly did not work out, but IMO, Ben was tasked with the job of trying to keep the team competitive while rebuilding. Hence, getting back major league ready talent was a priority in that deal.

[Kimmi]

More of a preference with me. DD paid to turn a bad team into a good team, I'd rather see a team build from within and then pay to turn a good team into a great team. I think if you do it the second way you extend your window. To each their own....that's what I wanted to see, I'm also 35 and not going to die anytime soon so perhaps that influences my philosophy.

 

I don't think Dombrowski was a year too soon. It was already a good team, ready to make that push for the playoffs. The timing was fine. The extent of the sell off is what I take issue with.

[Bellhorn04]

What is the purpose, the point, or the benefit of projecting anything regarding the Red Sox then? We can't control any of it. It's just discussion and debate. It's what we do here.

 

Oh, I know. But the cliff is a prophecy of doom, it's like a giant black cloud you and moon continue to hang over us.

[moonslav59]

I can't prove even one from Moncada, Kopech, Espinoza, Margot, Dubon, Basabe or others will ever be any good, so there's nothing to be concerned over.

 

Let's just trade the rest of the farm now, since any prospect can be plugged in to replace high ranked one and end up being great.

 

Love the logic.

 

They bash us for thinking top prospects might actually amount to something then ask us to have faith that our current lower ranked prospects will save the day in 3 years. Makes sense, right?

 

NOT!

[Jack Flap]

Beware that if you gaze too long into a cliff, the cliff also gazes into you.

[oldtimer]

There is no need for you to defend yourself Moon.

 

Defend your baseball positions, which you do very well.

 

There's no need to defend the other garbage.

 

We have seen a tendency for confrontation and negativism on this site which to me reflects the new norms of social media. Easy to take strong positions and use crude language while remaining semi-anonymous. Today's terrible events in Moon's home state of Texas should remind us to stay civil and keep our arguments about different players and positions factual and constructive. We share a common interest and love for the Sox and all of us want them to succeed. Yes, we have different ideas of how to achieve that success, but lets all not get involved in name calling and nastiness. I am not aiming this at either Moon or Kimmi, who I think have kept their inputs on a high plane. Just think before you write a post!

[Kimmi]

Oh, I know. But the cliff is a prophecy of doom, it's like a giant black cloud you and moon continue to hang over us.

 

We both have acknowledged that it could disappear before it actually gets here. As of now, it's here.

 

It's no different than the 'prophecy of doom' that I listened to a good bit of the year about how we had a .500 team.

[moonslav59]

Oh, I know. But the cliff is a prophecy of doom, it's like a giant black cloud you and moon continue to hang over us.

 

I see it differently. I see a big black cloud of rose-colored glasses wearing fans in denial hanging over Kimmi and me.

 

[cp176]

Stocking the farm is enirely 100% why we're where we are. The farm exists to supplement the big club be through development or trades. Guys like Betts, Benintendi, Vasquez, Boaerts, JBJ all came from stock piling the farm. Guys like Pomeranz, Sale, and Kimbrel came from having a stock piled farm.

 

I understand this although I still absolutely feel that many of our minor leaguers are and have been over rated. It does not concern me at all that we gave up what we gave when considering what we got. Understand also that I to believe that things will get interesting in a few years. They always do. It is the way things are. To some, there is a cliff. That implies a rather sharp sudden drop off. I don't think that has even a remote chance of happening if John Henry continues to own the franchise. The cliff is an opinion that some are promoting. it is their opinion. Mine says that it doesn't exist.

[Kimmi]

beware that if you gaze too long into a cliff, the cliff also gazes into you.

 

lol

[moonslav59]

I understand this although I still absolutely feel that many of our minor leaguers are and have been over rated. It does not concern me at all that we gave up what we gave when considering what we got. Understand also that I to believe that things will get interesting in a few years. They always do. It is the way things are. To some, there is a cliff. That implies a rather sharp sudden drop off. I don't think that has even a remote chance of happening if John Henry continues to own the franchise. The cliff is an opinion that some are promoting. it is their opinion. Mine says that it doesn't exist.

 

Other than starting pitching prospects, our highest ranked players have done pretty well developing into impactful players. There was a bad stretch from about 2008-2011, but I'd say our farm has done well. Other teams must agree, since they have traded some good players for many of them.

 

 

[cp176]

Other than starting pitching prospects, our highest ranked players have done pretty well developing into impactful players. There was a bad stretch from about 2008-2011, but I'd say our farm has done well. Other teams must agree, since they have traded some good players for many of them.

 

 

 

They have done well. Superstars - not in my opinion. A group of pretty solid ball players. The voice that I keep hearing is the one that says we have given away too much talent to allow us to compete a couple of years down the line. I don't agree with that voice. As for other teams trading with us, I think that it's great. i hope that the players we traded away do develop. other than Margot though how are they doing? Did some of them put up numbers playing at any level this year that would indicate that they are going to live up to the hype that surrounded them while they were here?

[jacksonianmarch]

Moncada rebounded after a dreadful debut and looks like he should progress into a top tier middle infielder.

Kopech rebounded from a walk riddled first half to seemingly solve his command issues and absolutely dominate the second half.

Travis Shaw went from platoon 3b to All Star caliber, 4.3WAR 3b.

Dubon stole 38 bases and hit enough to be a solid regular up the middle reaching AAA in 2017

Logan Allen dominated A ball and is likely headed for AA next yr, putting him in proximity to the majors

Javier Guerra has been absolutely terrible since moving to SD, it seems DD timed his trade correctly

Carlos Asuaje hit well enough to stick around as a utility infielder or a poor mans starting 2b

Josh Pennington had a short debut as a starter in A ball and was very good. Not sure why he started 10 games yet pitched only 32.1IP

Basabe was awful in his first year with the White Sox org down in A ball

Victor Diaz was incredibly bad in his first year with the White Sox org

Jonathan Aro made a brief cameo in SEA after a successful 2017 with AAA

Manuel Margot had a 2WAR season as a rookie. His defense propped up a high K rate rookie year, but he showed promise with a good power speed combo

 

Of the guys traded away, one is an all star (Shaw). Two guys look like perennial all-star caliber players (Moncada and Kopech). Margot looks to be an above average regular OFer with all star potential. Dubon looks to get a taste of the bigs in 2018 and has the gusto to be a solid regular. Asuaje looks to be either a starter or utility guy at the big league level. Logan Allen might end up being a top end pitcher, but he is still a year or two away

[dgalehouse]

There is a bottom line here. After two straight dismal last place finishes , the Sox have two straight division championships. Spin it any way you want , that is the reality. We all know by now that anything can happen in the playoffs. But the Sox reached the playoffs largely through the acquisitions of Dombrowski. Ortiz retired , and most of our young holdovers fell short of expectations. For the most part , the prospects dealt have not amounted to the proverbial hill of beans. I don't really see any argument here. Have some faith. To me , the talk of an impending cliff is not only a failure to enjoy the moment , but a misplaced case of Cherington nostalgia. No reason for that. We are better off now. And , Pawtucket ,

Portland , Greenville , etc. will be okay too. There will be no cliff in the near future. Stop worrying .