2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Kimmi]

Are the Sox trying to rebuild?

 

I hope they are trying to rebuild their farm.

[moonslav59]

Agreed. Devers should not be moved yet just because he did not look that great defensively in his first season. He is still very young and could improve with the proper coaching. However, I would have no problem moving him to 1B for a significant upgrade at 3B, like Machado, not that I want Machado on my team.

 

"...did not look that great" is an understatement.

 

Devers needs a lot of improvement... A LOT! I seriously doubt he can improve as quickly as we hope or need. Like I said, I'm fine with leaving him at 3B as long as we fill our biggest needs in other ways. To me, we are in a bind. JD Martinez fills the clean-up slot better than any other FA, but he's an OF'er/DH. Hosmer looks like the "obvious" get, but he's been up and down on offense and now has massive negative UZR/150's and DRS's. The projected years and money scare the hell out of me. He's my last choice, since he's not really the clean-up hitter type. That leaves Moustakas as plan A or B barring any trade options. trades will just create new holes or further deplete our already fragile farm system.

 

If we're willing to kick HRam to the curb, and pay him to ride the bench or play elsewhere, then signing JD, Shaw and Santana would be a a way to make us very strong contenders for the next 2-3 years. All have massive risk, but I do think DD will have a large spending budget this winter.

 

[notin]

I hope they are trying to rebuild their farm.

 

I don't think it's a priority. ..

[Kimmi]

"...did not look that great" is an understatement.

 

Devers needs a lot of improvement... A LOT! I seriously doubt he can improve as quickly as we hope or need. Like I said, I'm fine with leaving him at 3B as long as we fill our biggest needs in other ways. To me, we are in a bind. JD Martinez fills the clean-up slot better than any other FA, but he's an OF'er/DH. Hosmer looks like the "obvious" get, but he's been up and down on offense and now has massive negative UZR/150's and DRS's. The projected years and money scare the hell out of me. He's my last choice, since he's not really the clean-up hitter type. That leaves Moustakas as plan A or B barring any trade options. trades will just create new holes or further deplete our already fragile farm system.

 

If we're willing to kick HRam to the curb, and pay him to ride the bench or play elsewhere, then signing JD, Shaw and Santana would be a a way to make us very strong contenders for the next 2-3 years. All have massive risk, but I do think DD will have a large spending budget this winter.

 

My hope is that Hanley will be able to play most of the games at 1B, which will allow JD to mostly DH. I think JD could take some reps at 1B and be decent there. He could also get some playing time in the OF to give the regular OFs a rest.

 

I'm not real thrilled about either Hosmer or Moustakas because I think their contracts will be worse than JD's in terms of value per dollar, not to mention the QO.

[Kimmi]

I don't think it's a priority. ..

 

I don't either. Hence, the looming cliff.

[notin]

My hope is that Hanley will be able to play most of the games at 1B, which will allow JD to mostly DH. I think JD could take some reps at 1B and be decent there. He could also get some playing time in the OF to give the regular OFs a rest.

 

I'm not real thrilled about either Hosmer or Moustakas because I think their contracts will be worse than JD's in terms of value per dollar, not to mention the QO.

 

Hopefully they don't trade Bradley (for a 1b?) to accomodate Martinez in the OF. Bradley is the better all around player of the two, so it better be a great return...

[moonslav59]

Hopefully they don't trade Bradley (for a 1b?) to accomodate Martinez in the OF. Bradley is the better all around player of the two, so it better be a great return...

 

If we end up getting Stanton or JD to play LF, my hope is we get a decent pitcher for JBJ. We may have to add more to the package, but I can't see us trading JBJ for a 1Bman or RP'er or 2Bman.

[sk7326]

You make some great points, but to me, there are too many aspects of their signings that point to Moose being the better pick. Assuming MLBTR projections are in the ball park, here's what I see:

 

1) Moose with 5 yrs vs 6 for Hoze.

2) Moose with $85M vs $132M for Hoze[.

3) Moose at 3B & Devers at 1B is a much better defense than Devers at 3B and Hoze at 1B.

 

I'm still not convinced on the offense, as our biggest need is power (look at the ISO differential) and not necessarily the OBP, which is normally viewed as much more important. I'm not downplaying OBP. I still think it'e more important than SLG%, but our need for a solid clean-up hitter is very significant, and when viewed as who is the better clean-up hitter, the choice is a lot closer. (Personally, I'd take Moose in this role over Hoze.)

 

Also, with players in their prime, like both are, I tend to pay much more attention to the player's last 2-3 seasons and not earlier one. Hosmer has much better numbers 4+ years ago, and I'm hesitant to choose him over Moose due to what both did 4-6+ years ago. The numbers are very close from 2015-2017. One good thing about looking their stats is that they played on the same team, in the same park and basically faced the same pitchers.

 

Stat Moose Hoze

WAR 6.6 7.3

wRC+ 118 120

OPS .824 .822

OBP .359 .329

(The above numbers favor Hoze slightly, but our great need for power, might be enough to tip the balance towards Moose)

 

Stat Moose Hoze

ISO .221 .169 (a massive .052 differential)

SLG .496 .463 (about the same differential as OBP)

 

others...

BAbip .273 .330 (Is this differential sustainable?)

K% 13.8 17.2

 

D. R. S. -3 -12

UXR/150 + 5.3 -42.3 (OUCH!!!!)

 

I still see Moose as the overall better choice, even before looking at the money and years. If MLBTR is close with their projected salaries, Moose is my clear choice by a wide margin.

 

I'd still rather get JD or Stanton, despite their longer and more costly deals. We made the bed with the 3-4 year window and we're now down to 2-3 years. We can't change strategies mid stream and end up with worst of both worlds: No rings and a bleak(er) future outlook.

 

Really Moose vs Hosmer is whether you prefer Hosmer's vastly superior on base skills vs the Moustakas being an average-little above average 3B. Citing UZR for 1st basemen value has a lot of problems anyway. It seems like Hosmer is perfectly fine there - there are a few in the Bellinger/ old timey Keith Hernandez level ... but the vast majority are meh, and Hosmer is in that pile.

[sk7326]

I don't either. Hence, the looming cliff.

 

The cliff is entirely self-determined. It cannot be a true cliff if none of your stars will be even 29 by then.

[notin]

The cliff is entirely self-determined. It cannot be a true cliff if none of your stars will be even 29 by then.

 

The concept has more to do with free agency than age...

[a700hitter]

We win the Division is 2 consecutive years, which has not been done in anyone's lifetime on TS and people are looking to fire DD and predicting looming cliffs and last place finishes. It is no wonder why players have to be paid a premium to come to Boston. Lunacy. We have climbed up from the Abyss and the team is going in the opposite direction away from the cliff. Some people can't stand success and revel in failure. This is not aimed at any poster or posters, just at a completely negative outlook that many fans seem to have.

[moonslav59]

Really Moose vs Hosmer is whether you prefer Hosmer's vastly superior on base skills vs the Moustakas being an average-little above average 3B. Citing UZR for 1st basemen value has a lot of problems anyway. It seems like Hosmer is perfectly fine there - there are a few in the Bellinger/ old timey Keith Hernandez level ... but the vast majority are meh, and Hosmer is in that pile.

 

The main reason I prefer Moose over Hoze is power. The defense is just an added bonus. 3B defense is more important than 1B defense, so even if you think Hoze is a decent defensive 1Bman, having Devers at 3B instead of Moose is accepting a horrible left side infield defense. With Pedey out and Hoze at 1B, our infield entire defense could be near the bottom of the heap.

 

I'm not sure our plus catcher and OF defense can make up the difference.

[moonslav59]

We win the Division is 2 consecutive years, which has not been done in anyone's lifetime on TS and people are looking to fire DD and predicting looming cliffs and last place finishes. It is no wonder why players have to be paid a premium to come to Boston. Lunacy. We have climbed up from the Abyss and the team is going in the opposite direction away from the cliff. Some people can't stand success and revel in failure. This is not aimed at any poster or posters, just at a completely negative outlook that many fans seem to have.

 

Yeah, I hate success. That must be it.

 

We traded away dozens of prospects to create a team that won the division 2 years in a row.

 

Keep your head in blissful sand.

Our future is bright.

Being concerned is folly.

Being realistic is "complete" negativity.

 

[a700hitter]

Yeah, I hate success. That must be it.

 

We traded away dozens of prospects to create a team that won the division 2 years in a row.

 

Keep your head in blissful sand.

Our future is bright.

Being concerned is folly.

Being realistic is "complete" negativity.

 

Before we climbed out of the abyss people were predicting doom. That is extreme alarmist behavior. There are up and down cycles for sports franchises. No one stays on top forever, but to be worried about impending doom as your team is starting on the upswing is a fatalist viewpoint to which I can't relate. Feel free to go on being miserable. As I stated, my post was not directed at any poster, but at a negative fatalistic outlook.

[moonslav59]

Before we climbed out of the abyss people were predicting doom. That is extreme alarmist behavior. There are up and down cycles for sports franchises. No one stays on top forever, but to be worried about impending doom as your team is starting on the upswing is a fatalist viewpoint to which I can't relate. Feel free to go on being miserable. As I stated, my post was not directed at any poster, but at a negative fatalistic outlook.

 

Stop pretending you know how others feel. I'm far from miserable. I'm very happy about the team. I'm not a DD basher. I'm far from calling for his removal. That doesn't mean I have to deny the facts.

 

BTW, I wasn't miserable after finishing in last place in 2015. It sucked, and I wasn't happy about 2014-2015, but I was very optimistic about our near and extended future. I did not see a continuing decline. It seems you were the miserable one, but I won't claim to know your past feelings.

 

Let's see how miserable you are in 3 years. I could be wrong, but my guess is, you will be front and center on the dump DD bandwagon.

 

I don't see us finishing in last place when the "cliff" comes, but it is going to be very very difficult to be competitive when all our young stars hit free agency in a 2 year window with a much weaker farm to rely on for help. that's not a miserable outlook. It's a realistic one. Sure, it's relying on a lot of speculation and conjecture,

but I'm just not seeing a major influx of top quality help from our farm in 3 years. I guess, we could bring our budget to $250M or more, but I'll believe it when I see it.

[a700hitter]

Stop pretending you know how others feel. I'm far from miserable. I'm very happy about the team. I'm not a DD basher. I'm far from calling for his removal. That doesn't mean I have to deny the facts.

 

BTW, I wasn't miserable after finishing in last place in 2015. It sucked, and I wasn't happy about 2014-2015, but I was very optimistic about our near and extended future. I did not see a continuing decline. It seems you were the miserable one, but I won't claim to know your past feelings.

 

Let's see how miserable you are in 3 years. I could be wrong, but my guess is, you will be front and center on the dump DD bandwagon.

 

I don't see us finishing in last place when the "cliff" comes, but it is going to be very very difficult to be competitive when all our young stars hit free agency in a 2 year window with a much weaker farm to rely on for help. that's not a miserable outlook. It's a realistic one. Sure, it's relying on a lot of speculation and conjecture,

but I'm just not seeing a major influx of top quality help from our farm in 3 years. I guess, we could bring our budget to $250M or more, but I'll believe it when I see it.

It wasn't directed at you, so don't make it about you. I don't pretend to know what you think. I am just identifying what I interpret as a negative outlook by many people. This cliff was being identified as we were rebuilding into a competitor. The warnings started with the acquisition of Kimbrel and exacerbated with the acquisition of Sale. I enjoyed the heck out of watching those guys pitch this year annihilating opposing hitters. While they pitched, I was never concerned about impending cliffs although I might have thought that it will be great to watch these guys pitch for another couple of years. I think that fearing a cliff is an unduly alarmist outlook. Maybe I am just not as forward thinking as you are, or maybe you aren't forward thinking enough. It would be more positive if you looked further into the future to anticipate the success of our next rebuild.

[a700hitter]

I am looking forward to some new toys before Thanksgiving. With DD, it is hard to predict what he might do, but it should be something big. He will not wait around and get paralysis like Ben would do.

[moonslav59]

It wasn't directed at you, so don't make it about you. I don't pretend to know what you think.

 

Well you answered my reply post back by telling me to "go on being miserable." It's hard to not read that as being directed right at me. Even if it was not at me, you are pretending to know how others feel.

 

Sure, there is a certain poster who is seems completely down on DD, but that's hardly reason to respond as if there's a whole "army" of "completely negative" naysayers.

 

I am just identifying what I interpret as a negative outlook by many people. This cliff was being identified as we were rebuilding into a competitor. The warnings started with the acquisition of Kimbrel and exacerbated with the acquisition of Sale. I enjoyed the heck out of watching those guys pitch this year annihilating opposing hitters. While they pitched, I was never concerned about impending cliffs although I might have thought that it will be great to watch these guys pitch for another couple of years. I think that fearing a cliff is an unduly alarmist outlook. Maybe I am just not as forward thinking as you are, or maybe you aren't forward thinking enough. It would be more positive if you looked further into the future to anticipate the success of our next rebuild.

 

That way or wording it sounds more reasonable. At least you hint at there being some sort of "rebuild" needed as these vets' contracts expire.

 

Look, I realize it is just about all conjecture. We could end up doing better than expected with the prospects we have right now. They could exceed expectations.

We might finally get our first true top of rotation pitcher from our system since Lester. Maybe Chavis hits 30 HRs in MLB in 2020.

 

I disliked several of DD's deals, but I also disliked many of Ben's moves, especially the big FA signinngs. (I even hated the Vic signing day one.) I'm not down on DD, but I do feel he chose to sacrifice some our future for the 3-4 year window. Whether saying it's a "cliff" proves to be hyperbole or not remains to be seen, but I'm thinking we should be a top ring-contender over the next 2-3 years, assuming we obtain a top power-hitting clean up hitter this winter. That makes being a .500 team in 2021 look like a cliff to me. I don't foresee the "rebuild" as being long and drawn out, since we should still remain a top budget team.

 

Certainly, 2021 to 2022 can look like 2014-2015, especially if DD whiffs on a couple of FA signings like Ben did with HRam and Pablo. DD is going to need Price doing well as he reaches the mid 30's. Too many "ifs" to remain so optimistic, in my book.

 

[notin]

The cliff is like the horizon. Sure we're heading for it, but it's not going to get here.

 

Especially right now. Given the low value of even elite prospects, a team can rebuild the farm substantially with one July deadline sell off.

 

But really, a lot can and will happen in 3 years.

[cp176]

I am looking forward to some new toys before Thanksgiving. With DD, it is hard to predict what he might do, but it should be something big. He will not wait around and get paralysis like Ben would do.

 

 

Stock piling players in the farm didn't really serve us particularly well and is not a philosophy that I think of when I think of rebuilding anything. it is about the quality not quantity. Of all the prospects that have been dealt recently, I will anxiously await the day that one of them proves to be just a little better than Margot. I really don't see what I consider to be that many young "stars" that came along while Ben was here. Lots of decent quantity i guess but outside of Betts maybe Beninetendi, maybe Devers someday. Oh well, i'm just an old lifelong fan who wants to have something to look forward to each year. I like the aggressive, competitive approach that our current GM has.

[a700hitter]

It wasn't directed at you, so don't make it about you. I don't pretend to know what you think.

 

Well you answered my reply post back by telling me to "go on being miserable." It's hard to not read that as being directed right at me. Even if it was not at me, you are pretending to know how others feel.

 

Sure, there is a certain poster who is seems completely down on DD, but that's hardly reason to respond as if there's a whole "army" of "completely negative" naysayers.

I was responding to your post. My thoughts on overall negative outlook among Boston fans were not directed at you, but if you are telling me that the shoe fits, then I will respond directly to you. You made it about you.

[moonslav59]

I was responding to your post. My thoughts on overall negative outlook among Boston fans were not directed at you, but if you are telling me that the shoe fits, then I will respond directly to you. You made it about you.

 

You said I was miserable and then said it wasn't directed at me. Even if your first post wasn't directed at me, your second clearly was, and that was the one that used the word "miserable".

 

You acted like you knew my feelings then said you do not pretend to know people's feelings.

 

[a700hitter]

 

 

That way or wording it sounds more reasonable. At least you hint at there being some sort of "rebuild" needed as these vets' contracts expire.

Look, I realize it is just about all conjecture. We could end up doing better than expected with the prospects we have right now. They could exceed expectations.

We might finally get our first true top of rotation pitcher from our system since Lester. Maybe Chavis hits 30 HRs in MLB in 2020.

 

I disliked several of DD's deals, but I also disliked many of Ben's moves, especially the big FA signinngs. (I even hated the Vic signing day one.) I'm not down on DD, but I do feel he chose to sacrifice some our future for the 3-4 year window. Whether saying it's a "cliff" proves to be hyperbole or not remains to be seen, but I'm thinking we should be a top ring-contender over the next 2-3 years, assuming we obtain a top power-hitting clean up hitter this winter. That makes being a .500 team in 2021 look like a cliff to me. I don't foresee the "rebuild" as being long and drawn out, since we should still remain a top budget team.

 

Certainly, 2021 to 2022 can look like 2014-2015, especially if DD whiffs on a couple of FA signings like Ben did with HRam and Pablo. DD is going to need Price doing well as he reaches the mid 30's. Too many "ifs" to remain so optimistic, in my book.

 

A cliff that may be 3 to 5 years down the road is no more meaningful to me than 7-8 years down the road for our next prominence after a rebuild. We have no control over any of this, not even next season, but at least we have a good deal of knowledge about current available free agents, trade targets, and prospects so we can engage in conjecture with a higher probability that our conjecture might become reality next season than if we are discussing player transactions 3-5 years down the road. Any projections that far down the road have such a minutely remote probability of being accurate that I don't consider it to be a realistic valid concern. I consider it to be a fatalistic outlook --pure speculation based on extremely flimsy evidence. That is just me.

[sk7326]

The main reason I prefer Moose over Hoze is power. The defense is just an added bonus. 3B defense is more important than 1B defense, so even if you think Hoze is a decent defensive 1Bman, having Devers at 3B instead of Moose is accepting a horrible left side infield defense. With Pedey out and Hoze at 1B, our infield entire defense could be near the bottom of the heap.

 

I'm not sure our plus catcher and OF defense can make up the difference.

 

There is not actually much evidence that Moose is a great 3B defensively vs just letting a 21 year old grow in the way he has since he was 17

[a700hitter]

You said I was miserable and then said it wasn't directed at me. Even if your first post wasn't directed at me, your second clearly was, and that was the one that used the word "miserable".

 

You acted like you knew my feelings then said you do not pretend to know people's feelings.

 

Sorry I don't know your feelings but you seem to be fatalistic. That is my take on you. Maybe I am wrong, but that is the impression that you leave. If it is wrong, maybe you need to better communicate your upbeat attitude.

[moonslav59]

Sorry I don't know your feelings but you seem to be fatalistic. That is my take on you. Maybe I am wrong, but that is the impression that you leave. If it is wrong, maybe you need to better communicate your upbeat attitude.

 

I was upbeat with Ben while you seemed to be miserable.

 

I'm super upbeat about this team, especially since we obtained...

 

Chris Freakin Sale!

 

I am not optimistic about our team from 2021 to 2022. I'd hardly call that fatalistic or miserable, but I guess people with a long-standing miserable outlook might project it on others while pretending to be optimistic. (Note: this is not directed at you- just at the many miserable fans out there.)

 

[moonslav59]

There is not actually much evidence that Moose is a great 3B defensively vs just letting a 21 year old grow in the way he has since he was 17

 

Moose is light years ahead of Devers on defense for 2018 and probably 2019 as well.

 

He is NOT a great defender right now.

[a700hitter]

I was upbeat with Ben while you seemed to be miserable.

 

I'm super upbeat about this team, especially since we obtained...

 

Chris Freakin Sale!

 

I am not optimistic about our team from 2021 to 2022. I'd hardly call that fatalistic or miserable, but I guess people with a long-standing miserable outlook might project it on others while pretending to be optimistic. (Note: this is not directed at you- just at the many miserable fans out there.)

 

I enjoyed the hell out of 2013. I was miserable with Ben when we were in last place. You might have liked the utter futility of being out of a pennant race by the end of April, but I didn't, and the prospect of getting a high draft pick didn't buoy my spirits at all.

 

Edit: Ben showed no ability to build a good pitching staff. When he left the organization, it was almost entirely bereft of pitching talent. I wasn't predicting doom under Ben. We were living in doom.

 

As for your lack of optimism about 2021- 2022, you have no solid basis for that lack of optimism except your fatalistic outlook. You have no clue what our major league roster or minor system will be like that far down the road. Sorry, but I am not buying into you being the Baseball Nostradamus. I don't buy into Nostradamus.

Edited November 5, 2017 by a700hitter

[Bellhorn04]

I am not optimistic about our team from 2021 to 2022.

 

Most of us seem to think it's kind of pointless to project what the Red Sox are going to look like that far in the future. What is the purpose? What is the benefit?

[moonslav59]

Most of us seem to think it's kind of pointless to project what the Red Sox are going to look like that far in the future. What is the purpose? What is the benefit?

 

You can bet GMs think about it all the time.

 

I'm not hung up on what the Sox will look like in 2-4 years. I'm not "miserable" over it either.

 

There are "benefits" to planning for the future, and that entails actually thinking about it and planning accordingly. I don;t think DD has done enough to plan for that post window period. I don't need a personal benefit to give me reason to think about it.

 

I'm perfectly capable of really enjoying the present while having concerns about the future. It's not an either/or situation.

 

You guys act like you enjoy the games more because you choose not to worry about the future. I don't see it that way.