2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Larry Cook]

Agreed.

 

Improving on Moreland could be a big plus.

 

I think we add one great bat or two really good ones, somehow- someway.

 

More from Devers, Smith, Maddox, Workman and maybe something from Ross and/or Thorburg could be a big plus.

 

No Pablo, Rutledge and a few others is addition by subtraction.

 

 

For me, I find it hard to believe we could have the same amount of injuries in 2018 as we had in 2017.

 

For 2018 my crystal ball says:

 

I expect improvement from betts, benintendi, Vazquez, bogey, devers, porcello, Thornburg and Ross.

 

I expect about the same from holt, Bradley, Leon, Hanley, Kelly, sale, Pomeranz, smith, Barnes and Kimbrel.

 

That leaves the wild cards:

 

Price - what is the extent of the tear?

Rodriguez - post surgery recovery time needed?

Pedroia - can we get more than 20 to 30 healthy games from him?

1st base - who be on first?

5th starter - lots of candidates in house or do we sign someone?

4th outfielder - not a lot of candidates in house, so who do we sign?

Lefty reliever - not a lot of in house candidates, so who do we sign?

 

Our season will rest on how many wild cards exceed expectations!

[a700hitter]

For me, I find it hard to believe we could have the same amount of injuries in 2018 as we had in 2017.

 

For 2018 my crystal ball says:

 

I expect improvement from betts, benintendi, Vazquez, bogey, devers, porcello, Thornburg and Ross.

 

I expect about the same from holt, Bradley, Leon, Hanley, Kelly, sale, Pomeranz, smith, Barnes and Kimbrel.

 

That leaves the wild cards:

 

Price - what is the extent of the tear?

Rodriguez - post surgery recovery time needed?

Pedroia - can we get more than 20 to 30 healthy games from him?

1st base - who be on first?

5th starter - lots of candidates in house or do we sign someone?

4th outfielder - not a lot of candidates in house, so who do we sign?

Lefty reliever - not a lot of in house candidates, so who do we sign?

 

Our season will rest on how many wild cards exceed expectations!

I don't know what your basis is for such certainty that Bogey will improve. His OPS in 2017 was 2 points lower than his career average and the league seems to have him figured out that he can't hit a slider and he has shown a complete inability to adjust to that pitch.

 

Benitendi could easily experience a sophomore slump as the league adjusts to him. I hope not, but I can't be certain that he will improve.

 

i am not expecting the same from Pom in 2018 as we got from him in 2017 which may have been his career year. Kimbrel had a career type year as well. He K'd about half the batter's who he faced and had the second lowest WHIP of his career (0.68).

 

Vasquez had a very good year. I would be happy with the same performance as in 2017. I don't know on what you are resting your hope for improvement in 2018.

[oldtimer]

For me, I find it hard to believe we could have the same amount of injuries in 2018 as we had in 2017.

 

For 2018 my crystal ball says:

 

I expect improvement from betts, benintendi, Vazquez, bogey, devers, porcello, Thornburg and Ross.

 

I expect about the same from holt, Bradley, Leon, Hanley, Kelly, sale, Pomeranz, smith, Barnes and Kimbrel.

 

That leaves the wild cards:

 

Price - what is the extent of the tear?

Rodriguez - post surgery recovery time needed?

Pedroia - can we get more than 20 to 30 healthy games from him?

1st base - who be on first?

5th starter - lots of candidates in house or do we sign someone?

4th outfielder - not a lot of candidates in house, so who do we sign?

Lefty reliever - not a lot of in house candidates, so who do we sign?

 

Our season will rest on how many wild cards exceed expectations!

 

One of the biggest wild cards that went unmentioned is the addition of Cora and his impact in the mood and enthusiasm in the clubhouse. There will be coaching changes coming with Cora as well. Its a wild card but could be positive or negative. I tend to think positively about the change as the clubhouse seemed a little dour last year under JF.

[oldtimer]

I don't know what your basis is for such certainty that Bogey will improve. His OPS in 2017 was 2 points lower than his career average and the league seems to have him figured out that he can't hit a slider and he has shown a complete inability to adjust to that pitch.

 

Benitendi could easily experience a sophomore slump as the league adjusts to him. I hope not, but I can't be certain that he will improve.

 

i am not expecting the same from Pom in 2018 as we got from him in 2017 which may have been his career year. Kimbrel had a career type year as well. He K'd about half the batter's who he faced and had the second lowest WHIP of his career (0.68).

 

Vasquez had a very good year. I would be happy with the same performance as in 2017. I don't know on what you are resting your hope for improvement in 2018.

 

My hope for Bogey is that we will have a new hitting coach who will work with him and perhaps help him improve his swing mechanics and plate approach. Lurking within him is a very good hitter if it can be drawn out. With his size, he also potentially has significantly more power than we saw last year.

[jacksonianmarch]

They could experience what we experienced this year: just about very returning player declining, even those at ages of normally seen improvement.

 

This is why we cannot stand pat on offense. We need one big bat to add as well. But you’re also missing the fact that we will (or should anyway) have Bird healthy for the whole season. That’s a big addition to a young offense. I want to add to him. I want us to get a 1b/DH that can spell Bird to the DH spot enough to keep him fresh. I’m aware of the potential return to earth of Judge. I don’t foresee him going down to a .200 hitter with no power, but the potential is there for him to have a low .200s season with a ton of power again. Hence why we need to lengthen the middle of our order. You add a guy like Santana or Otani to the DH spot and you’re improving the offense and lengthening it. How crazy was it that our 2017 team had quite possibly the worst production from the 1b and DH positions in baseball? Well, we’ve got 1b covered with Bird. DH’s are a dime a dozen this offseason. Watch out!

[Bellhorn04]

My hope for Bogey is that we will have a new hitting coach who will work with him and perhaps help him improve his swing mechanics and plate approach. Lurking within him is a very good hitter if it can be drawn out. With his size, he also potentially has significantly more power than we saw last year.

 

My main hope for Bogey is that his weak finish was largely a result of the hand injury and that he'll be 100% in 2018.

[moonslav59]

For me, I find it hard to believe we could have the same amount of injuries in 2018 as we had in 2017.

 

For 2018 my crystal ball says:

 

I expect improvement from betts, benintendi, Vazquez, bogey, devers, porcello, Thornburg and Ross.

 

I expect about the same from holt, Bradley, Leon, Hanley, Kelly, sale, Pomeranz, smith, Barnes and Kimbrel.

 

That leaves the wild cards:

 

Price - what is the extent of the tear?

Rodriguez - post surgery recovery time needed?

Pedroia - can we get more than 20 to 30 healthy games from him?

1st base - who be on first?

5th starter - lots of candidates in house or do we sign someone?

4th outfielder - not a lot of candidates in house, so who do we sign?

Lefty reliever - not a lot of in house candidates, so who do we sign?

 

Our season will rest on how many wild cards exceed expectations!

 

I don't think our amount of injuries were that much as compared to the norm. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I think we might have been at about the mean for days lost to injury.

 

Players playing hurt is another matter, and it is hard to quantify. Certainly HRam's surgery confirms he was playing hurt, and it was obvious Pedey was, too. The Betts and Bogey injuries seemed real to me.

 

I agree on your basic assessment on where our players will be next year, except for Smith, where you expected "about the same". Unless he misses 4 months, I don't see how he gives us worse than 2017.

 

As for LH'd RP'ers, we have Scott and maybe R Ross, but more importantly, we have several righties that do really well ve LHBs:

 

OPS against

.572 Kimbrel

.641 Taylot

.671 Kelly

 

not bad...

.720 Maddox

 

I do think we look for a lefty RP'er, unless we feel Thornburg will be back sooner than some think. We might also make the choice to put Brian Johnson in the pen. However, with the 5th starter in question, keeping Johnson stretched out might make more sense.

 

[moonslav59]

One of the biggest wild cards that went unmentioned is the addition of Cora and his impact in the mood and enthusiasm in the clubhouse. There will be coaching changes coming with Cora as well. Its a wild card but could be positive or negative. I tend to think positively about the change as the clubhouse seemed a little dour last year under JF.

 

I caught a lot of flack for saying I felt the 2917 Sox lacked "fire and desire" as well as "focus". I'm hopeful we see a noticeable difference next year. I think that might be one reason we hired Cora.

[moonslav59]

This is why we cannot stand pat on offense. We need one big bat to add as well. But you’re also missing the fact that we will (or should anyway) have Bird healthy for the whole season. That’s a big addition to a young offense. I want to add to him. I want us to get a 1b/DH that can spell Bird to the DH spot enough to keep him fresh. I’m aware of the potential return to earth of Judge. I don’t foresee him going down to a .200 hitter with no power, but the potential is there for him to have a low .200s season with a ton of power again. Hence why we need to lengthen the middle of our order. You add a guy like Santana or Otani to the DH spot and you’re improving the offense and lengthening it. How crazy was it that our 2017 team had quite possibly the worst production from the 1b and DH positions in baseball? Well, we’ve got 1b covered with Bird. DH’s are a dime a dozen this offseason. Watch out!

 

I know about Bird, and I wish he was on our team, but I thought of him, too, when I mentioned several to many Yanks could decline next year like our young and mid-ranged players did this year. (We had no old players.)

[moonslav59]

My main hope for Bogey is that his weak finish was largely a result of the hand injury and that he'll be 100% in 2018.

 

I'm thinking the same thing. Same with Betts. We need big years from at least two of these guys: Betts, Beni, Bogey, JBJ or HRam. Only HRam is past prime. If that doesn't happen, we could possibly get a monster year from Devers or something surprising from Pedey or Vaz.

[sk7326]

I caught a lot of flack for saying I felt the 2917 Sox lacked "fire and desire" as well as "focus". I'm hopeful we see a noticeable difference next year. I think that might be one reason we hired Cora.

 

The extra inning record and just how much adversity the team had to fight through refutes that imo. Now - there was not a lot of joy, and I do think Farrell is somewhat responsible for that environment. But this team had a certain toughness to it. We saw it in Boston after the two routs in Houston in the ALDS.

[oldtimer]

I'm thinking the same thing. Same with Betts. We need big years from at least two of these guys: Betts, Beni, Bogey, JBJ or HRam. Only HRam is past prime. If that doesn't happen, we could possibly get a monster year from Devers or something surprising from Pedey or Vaz.

 

With Pedey undergoing surgery at the end of October, the best estimate for his return is June and that is by no means a certainty. He may well not make it back until the All Star break. We need to make a second base replacement a priority. Maybe that guy comes from within with a number of candidates including Chavis who I think could make the transition to 2nd. Also, all the more reason to keep Bogey to solidify part of the infield.

[mvp 78]

Chavis isn't playing 2B.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

 

Sox re-signed Aneury Tavarez on a minor league deal per @BaseballAmerica. Upper level OF depth real thin. Brentz, Selsky free agents.

[moonslav59]

@redsoxstats

 

Sox re-signed Aneury Tavarez on a minor league deal per @BaseballAmerica. Upper level OF depth real thin. Brentz, Selsky free agents.

 

I heard Brentz signed a minor league deal with us. Can't find where I read it.

 

This from soxprospects.com...

 

Rumors have swirled that Brentz is drawing interest from Japan, and it is possible he ends up there if he does not receive any major league offers after his great season.

 

[moonslav59]

Chavis isn't playing 2B.

 

If he can't play 3B, he definitely can't play 2B.

[Kimmi]

A 2/3 starter will command close to big bat money and be a long term risky contract. ThIs team won 93 games without more starts from Fister than Price last year.

 

A stopgap starter who usually signs cheap contracts and then put-performs them is Francisco Liriano. Can he do it again?

 

I wouldn't do a risky, long term contract, but I'd rather spend money on pitching than on offense. Just my preference. Once again, if we knew for certain that Price would be healthy, then my priority would be a big bat. It would be nice if we could find a diamond in the rough on a cheap contract.

[Kimmi]

If you're not improving, you're falling behind. The Yankees are going to be much better in 2018 than in 2017, especially since the team as is is better than the first 4 months of 2017.

 

Who says we're not improving?

[Kimmi]

My hope for Bogey is that we will have a new hitting coach who will work with him and perhaps help him improve his swing mechanics and plate approach. Lurking within him is a very good hitter if it can be drawn out. With his size, he also potentially has significantly more power than we saw last year.

 

I am on the improvement from Bogaerts bandwagon. Unfortunately, I'm also on the regression from Pomeranz bandwagon.

[Kimmi]

I caught a lot of flack for saying I felt the 2917 Sox lacked "fire and desire" as well as "focus". I'm hopeful we see a noticeable difference next year. I think that might be one reason we hired Cora.

 

The impression that I've gotten from reading about why Farrell was let go was not because of lack of fire or focus, but because the youngsters were trying too hard and didn't know how to deal with not being able to play up to their expectations.

[oldtimer]

If he can't play 3B, he definitely can't play 2B.

 

I don't follow your logic. If a guy caqn't play center field you might say he can't play 1stc base, it makes as much sense. Second base requires a different set of skills and the scouts had said that might be the right position for him> Enough for me to at least consider it a possiblity.

[notin]

I wouldn't do a risky, long term contract, but I'd rather spend money on pitching than on offense. Just my preference. Once again, if we knew for certain that Price would be healthy, then my priority would be a big bat. It would be nice if we could find a diamond in the rough on a cheap contract.

 

We did. Pomeranz is a diamond in the rough on a very cheap deal.

 

However, many expect some regression from him, despite his peripherals the last two seasons being nearly identical.

 

But if regression is expected, is Pomeranz a "sell high" candidate? All things considered, he'd be a terrific trade chip...

[notin]

I don't follow your logic. If a guy caqn't play center field you might say he can't play 1stc base, it makes as much sense. Second base requires a different set of skills and the scouts had said that might be the right position for him> Enough for me to at least consider it a possiblity.

 

Second base is a more demanding and difficult position to play than third base. Since Chavis lacks the range and glove work to handle third, he cannot handle second, since 2b requires much more range.

 

Chavis is probably a 1b/lf type...

[notin]

If you're not improving, you're falling behind. The Yankees are going to be much better in 2018 than in 2017, especially since the team as is is better than the first 4 months of 2017.

 

Ah yes. The famous"young players always improve" mantra. Very popular misconception.

 

Also, your starting rotation will likely be gutted this off-season. The Yankees could lose 5 pitchers to free agency next month (Tanaka, Sabbathia, Garcia, Pineda, and Eovaldi). Even losing the injured guys depletes depth...

[jacksonianmarch]

Ah yes. The famous"young players always improve" mantra. Very popular misconception.

 

Also, your starting rotation will likely be gutted this off-season. The Yankees could lose 5 pitchers to free agency next month (Tanaka, Sabbathia, Garcia, Pineda, and Eovaldi). Even losing the injured guys depletes depth...

 

Yeah, you're not really on course here.

 

What I meant was the Yankees team of August-October was very different than the one we had from April-July and we were better for the deals we made. Garcia was awful for us. We replaced Pineda. Eovaldi hasn't been on the team in over a year. Tanaka in all likelihood isn't opting out. We may replace CC with Otani. Our rotation right now without Tanaka is a good start at Severino-Gray-Montgomery. I agree we need to have either Tanaka or Darvish there. We are ready to bring up another rookie for the 5th slot if we don't get Otani. Also, yes, the kids could regress a bit, but the only rookie who broke out was Judge. Remember, Sanchez technically "regressed" in 2017 compared to his blistering debut in 2016 and we should have Bird for a whole season which lengthens our lineup significantly. Anyone who doesn't think the Yankees will be every bit as tough if not tougher in 2018 is fooling themselves

[notin]

Yeah, you're not really on course here.

 

What I meant was the Yankees team of August-October was very different than the one we had from April-July and we were better for the deals we made. Garcia was awful for us. We replaced Pineda. Eovaldi hasn't been on the team in over a year. Tanaka in all likelihood isn't opting out. We may replace CC with Otani. Our rotation right now without Tanaka is a good start at Severino-Gray-Montgomery. I agree we need to have either Tanaka or Darvish there. We are ready to bring up another rookie for the 5th slot if we don't get Otani. Also, yes, the kids could regress a bit, but the only rookie who broke out was Judge. Remember, Sanchez technically "regressed" in 2017 compared to his blistering debut in 2016 and we should have Bird for a whole season which lengthens our lineup significantly. Anyone who doesn't think the Yankees will be every bit as tough if not tougher in 2018 is fooling themselves

 

Tanaka is opting out. As the youngest big name starter on the market, his remaining option with New York is about half of what he can get as a free agent. Certainly his agent is aware.

 

Also, Judge was most definitely NOT the only break out. Luis Severino would be upset at you for forgetting him.

 

And while Sonny Gray is a nice pitcher, he isn't the guy you had in August and September. That was a career-best run for him...

[moonslav59]

And while Sonny Gray is a nice pitcher, he isn't the guy you had in August and September. That was a career-best run for him...

 

I hope you're being sarcastic. Gray has many stretches better and longer than his 5-8 game stretch with the Yanks.

 

AUG 2-3 2.70 (1.200 WHIP)

SEP 2-4 4.58 (1.302)

 

Hell, he had a better run with the A's earlier this year!

 

He was better his first 10 starts of his career to end the 2013 season.

 

He then started the 2014 season with 15 ERs in his first 10 starts (5-1 1.99 ERA).

 

He had a 1.60 ERA after his first 14 starts of 2015.

 

Later in 2015, he let up 15 ERs is a 9 straight starts.

 

To me, Gray has a good shot at pitching like an ace or top #2 guy next year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Tanaka is opting out. As the youngest big name starter on the market, his remaining option with New York is about half of what he can get as a free agent. Certainly his agent is aware.

 

Also, Judge was most definitely NOT the only break out. Luis Severino would be upset at you for forgetting him.

 

And while Sonny Gray is a nice pitcher, he isn't the guy you had in August and September. That was a career-best run for him...

 

I said rookie breakout. Severino already had his swoon. After a helluva 2015 introduction to the bigs, he was awful in 2016. He figured it out in 2017. I expect him to continue a run of dominance as long as he stays healthy. I said rookie and the only rookie who really came in with a bang was Judge.

 

Tanaka has a 3 year deal with $22.2 mil per year attached to it. He’s got a known elbow tear. He is coming off a season where he nearly matched Porcello’s HR total. If he opts out, we will get Darvish.

 

Sonny Gray August-September actually was t that great. He’s proven to be better than that historically and I anticipate he returns to career norms

[mvp 78]

I heard Brentz signed a minor league deal with us. Can't find where I read it.

 

This from soxprospects.com...

 

Rumors have swirled that Brentz is drawing interest from Japan, and it is possible he ends up there if he does not receive any major league offers after his great season.

 

 

I don't understand why the Sox don't have more interest in him.

[harmony]

Would anyone here trade Jackie Bradley Jr., Hanley Ramirez and $5 million to Seattle for reliever Nick Vincent?

 

Bradley remains under team control for three seasons with a projected 2018 arbitration salary of $5.9 million. Ramirez is owed $22 million in 2018 with a 2019 option for $22 million that vests with 497 plate appearances and a passed physical.

 

Vincent remains under team control for two seasons with a projected 2018 arbitration salary of $2.7 million.

 

The Red Sox would save about $20 million off the 2018 budget, freeing up funds to pursue free agents J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer.

 

Ramirez would be reunited with Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Jean Segura, his Dominican Republic teammates in the 2017 World Baseball Classic. The Mariners would take the huge risk that Ramirez can play first base.

 

I have no shortage of bad ideas.