Sale

[cp176]

Good point.

 

Look at his velocity charts. He's up from last year, but he's down from earlier in the year.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitch=FA&data=pi

 

 

Thanks for the info. If I'm not reading the chart incorrectly, there really was only one early season game - one other maybe in which his fastball appeared to be a little slower than last night. I understand the concern about him getting fatigued, I just don't see that as the current issue right now.

[cp176]

Be that as it may.... Sale is young and has a ton of years left in him but time will tell...... If this happens again next season maybe he isn't an "Ace" He was phenomenal the first half of the year and this could just be a one off that the second half of the season hasn't been near as good..... But I completely agree if a pitcher is tired by the 2nd half of the season and starts declining then he absolutely is not an Ace. Time will tell especially come playoffs.

 

 

Ma Nature is going to have her way with him I think. I heard so many times before and after the trade how his arm slot and delivery in general would lead to all sorts of arm issues. Until something really happens, I'm going with the theory that this is who he is. he has had a fairly reliable career to date. He has such great stuff I think that we expect him to win everytime he gets to the mound. I know I do - He is must watch tv for me when most things on tv suck.

[cp176]

Good point.

 

Look at his velocity charts. He's up from last year, but he's down from earlier in the year.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitch=FA&data=pi

 

 

Moon - I just don't see his losing games or pitching worse I guess as the season goes along as meaning that he is definitely fatigued. I understand totally that that is the theory that people are going to hang their hats on. Might be right. Every player in the game could use a little rest right now. If anything, I think that that velo chart says that he ain't losing because he is wearing out physically. Maybe - but that is just a guess -

[TylerD]

Ma Nature is going to have her way with him I think. I heard so many times before and after the trade how his arm slot and delivery in general would lead to all sorts of arm issues. Until something really happens, I'm going with the theory that this is who he is. he has had a fairly reliable career to date. He has such great stuff I think that we expect him to win everytime he gets to the mound. I know I do - He is must watch tv for me when most things on tv suck.

 

I agree with this completely. Even when he has a horrible outing like last night he still puts up so mean strikeouts. I think he finished with 9 or 10 after just 5 innings last night. Still very entertaining pitcher to watch.

[moonslav59]

Moon - I just don't see his losing games or pitching worse I guess as the season goes along as meaning that he is definitely fatigued. I understand totally that that is the theory that people are going to hang their hats on. Might be right. Every player in the game could use a little rest right now. If anything, I think that that velo chart says that he ain't losing because he is wearing out physically. Maybe - but that is just a guess -

 

I have agreed that we don't know the real reason this pattern continues at the end of almost all his seasons.

 

I'm guessing fatigue or endurance or stamina or whatever you want to call it MIGHT BE part of the problem.

 

Then, I'm making an educated guess that more rest MIGHT help him stay stronger and/or sharper as the season goes along. It's just a guess.

 

There could be multiple factors.

 

The velocity charts do not show much of a change, and I agree, it's hard to see any change when watching him do well or poorly. He always looks good, but sometimes he gets hit.

 

Back to the Velo charts.

 

Looking at games where his velocity averages 95 or more, he had 2 of his first 14 games below 95. He had 11 of his next 18 below 95 with 2 right at 95.

 

You might be right though. There may be no correlation. His game 15, 16, 17, 19, 20 and 21 some of his lowest. In those games, he let up these ER in these IP:

 

3 8.1

1 6.1

0 7.0

0 7.1

0 6.0

0 7.0

 

 

[cp176]

I bet we agree on this - He plays for us and we are damn happy he does!

[moonslav59]

I bet we agree on this - He plays for us and we are damn happy he does!

 

That trade was a dream come true. I've suggested trades like this for decades. I think I was more thrilled with this deal that the Schilling and Pedro trades from way back.

[Kimmi]

Obvious?

 

To me, it's obvious he did.

 

They could have given him 2 extra days then 2 extra days again and had him set up with 2 extra days for game 1 of the playoffs.

 

He's now looked bad in 6 of his last 12 starts. That's not the sale from earlier in the year. He has a long history of falling off in September. Nothing is for certain, but it appears he may get fatigued by the end of long seasons.

 

Getting one extra start may not always be the best strategy, if your burn your ace in the process. There's good chance he might have gone 2-0 instead of 2-1 by getting that extra start, which by the way would keep him from starting game 1 of the playoffs Oct 5th.

 

Nothing is obvious- my plan or JF's.

 

 

If Farrell gave Sale that extra day's rest last week and started ? in his place, we may have lost that game and Sale still might not have been any better in his next outing. Until the division is clinched, and barring injury, he needs to make every one of his scheduled starts.

 

You then cross the other bridges when you get to them.

[Kimmi]

If Sale wears out in the second half of every season he's not much of an ace.

 

That's a valid point. He's not an ace if we can't count on him during the time we need him the most.

[Kimmi]

I was posting in another thread that I think he is very under weight. To be 6'6 and weight 179 or whatever he is..... is horribly thin. Could be hard on his body going through all these innings being that thin. This isn't the first season he has started the first half as an All Star and the 2nd half has just been ok or slightly above average. He has had a fantastic year but I definitely think rest would have been a huge help to him. Of course this is my opinion as I know some don't agree. But the 8 innings last week and no rest till playoffs certainly won't help his pitching.

 

Dude definitely needs to put some meat on those bones!

[Kimmi]

Sale faced Toronto 3 times going into last night, they weren't so ill prepared for his herky jerky motion. You face anybody enough during the season expect 1 bad game.

These are Professional Baseball hitters, they are pretty good. Especially when you face a Pitcher 3 times already.Don't always look at the Pitcher, look at your Opponent, they hit him, happens.

 

The Astros are not starting Keuchel against us on Sunday for that very reason.

[Kimmi]

^^ Then again, the Astros have nothing to fear with our vaunted line up. LOL

[moonslav59]

If Farrell gave Sale that extra day's rest last week and started ? in his place, we may have lost that game and Sale still might not have been any better in his next outing. Until the division is clinched, and barring injury, he needs to make every one of his scheduled starts.

 

You then cross the other bridges when you get to them.

 

When you burn a bridge, there's no more crossing it.

 

Had he rested Sale more, maybe he wins his last 2 starts, instead of going 2-1 or 1-2.

 

We'll never know- either of us.

[moonslav59]

That's a valid point. He's not an ace if we can't count on him during the time we need him the most.

 

It doesn't necessarily have to be either or. When you spot an issue, there's something called "being proactive".

[Bellhorn04]

It doesn't necessarily have to be either or. When you spot an issue, there's something called "being proactive".

 

So how many innings would you have cut him back to this year if you were manager - 200? 190? 180?

[moonslav59]

So how many innings would you have cut him back to this year if you were manager - 200? 190? 180?

 

Actually, I didn't even know about the history of September drop offs, so I can't claim I'm smarter than them- not that I would anyways.

 

A month or so ago, I thought we should have started lessening his innings per start or give him extra days off. I did not look so far ahead as to plan it so he wasn't slated to pitch game 162.

 

A couple of weeks back, I suggested we start giving Sale at least 1 day extra before each start. I'd have given him 2 days off before that great start 2 games ago and timed it so he had 1 less start. He'd have started game 1 or 2 vs HOU as his last start.

 

Overall, I estimate I'd have pitched him 12-18 less innings this year. I am fully aware the idea might not have made any difference, and if we need him game 162, I'd be throwing up somewhere as Porcello gives up a 3 run first inning HR in the clinching game.

[OH FOY]

Merloni just said Sale Astros hasn't faced the Astros this year, he almost guarantees they will have problems seeing him the 1st time. What does he know he only played the game.

Kind of Pitcher, hard to pick up the ball when you never faced him. Easier to time with his motion, the more you see him.

Edited September 28, 2017 by OH FOY!

[illinoisredsox]

The only way he pitches Sunday is if the Sox haven't clinched. Meanwhile, he does have to prepare as if he were going to pitch (side throwing, etc.,). If the Sox are even or up by 1 after Saturday's games, he has to take the hill. Assuming they get that far, that would set him up for game 2 in the ALDS, and with the off days, he could pitch a Game 5 on regular rest.

 

Porcello would get the start in a Monday game at Yankee Stadium. That does not bode well and has to be avoided. They would be better off to blow the division completely.

[mvp 78]

Merloni just said Sale Astros hasn't faced the Astros this year, he almost guarantees they will have problems seeing him the 1st time. What does he know he only played the game.

Kind of Pitcher, hard to pick up the ball when you never faced him. Easier to time with his motion, the more you see him.

 

He's kind of an idiot though and doesn't often prove that he has a great baseball mind.

[OH FOY]

1st time through Line-up Opponent's hit .214

2nd time .221

3rd time .226

4th time .276

This for Sale's career.

[mvp 78]

I'm lighting the Slasher beacon:

 

@Shesta_HOF

 

Spikes worn by Chris Sale when he crossed the 300-strikeout plateau have arrived @baseballhall. Thank you Chris, and thank you @RedSox!

[Slasher9]

i guess mark ecco didn't want to buy them.....

[Kimmi]

When you burn a bridge, there's no more crossing it.

 

Had he rested Sale more, maybe he wins his last 2 starts, instead of going 2-1 or 1-2.

 

We'll never know- either of us.

 

That's kind of the point with winning the division. You rest Sale so that he can be sharper in the playoffs, but you then risk the chance (by losing the wildcard game) of that not being an issue anyway.

 

It's like saving Kimbrel for the 9th inning save, while your lesser relievers proceed to blow the game in the 8th. There's no sense in saving a player for a situation that may never come.

[moonslav59]

That's kind of the point with winning the division. You rest Sale so that he can be sharper in the playoffs, but you then risk the chance (by losing the wildcard game) of that not being an issue anyway.

 

It's like saving Kimbrel for the 9th inning save, while your lesser relievers proceed to blow the game in the 8th. There's no sense in saving a player for a situation that may never come.

 

My point was maybe we don't lose his last start, if we rested him. 2-0 is better than 2-1 or 1-2.