Sale

[Bellhorn04]

lol!

 

Now, we have "fire and desire!"

 

Of course we have fire and desire. Couldn't have won all these marathon extra-inning games without it.

[devildavid]

So did Farrell fail by falling for the intangible impact of letting Sale get his 300th K when he should have been rational and rested him? Do emotions really matter in competitive sports and how does a manager bring them out in the players?

[moonslav59]

The chances are that we will win the division. However, anything can and does happen in baseball. A 3 game swing in one week is not unheard of, and the fact that we have some fairly easy competition coming up does not matter. The Dodgers are in danger of being swept by the Phillies.

 

The point is, you can't take anything for granted, especially with only 10 games left to go.

 

I agree with you way more often than not, but this is a time where I strongly disagree. IMO, it is pretty close to a slam dunk choice.

 

I'm not taking it for granted.

 

It's not a slam dunk choice. Sale has been showing fragility that could very well be tied to fatigue issues.

 

8 innings and 111 pitches was not needed to improve our odds of winning the division at all.

 

I'm surprised so many posters seem to be 100% dismissive of any concern of burning Sale out just in time for the playoffs.

 

 

Look, I get the argument about winning the division comes first, but really, how much did keeping Sale in 1 or 2 more innings really improve those odds?

 

To lower Sale's chances of being strong for the playoffs to gain maybe a .0001 better chance at winning the division is not "slam dunk".

 

[Bellhorn04]

So did Farrell fail by falling for the intangible impact of letting Sale get his 300th K when he should have been rational and rested him? Do emotions really matter in competitive sports and how does a manager bring them out in the players?

 

You ask tough question, man.

 

It's possible that Sale might have gotten an emotional boost from both pitching 8 innings and reaching the milestone.

[Slasher9]

The stats say we will win the division

The stats say our ace is better when extra rested

The stats say pitching = parades

 

I love how all the usual "stat" folks are on this thread ignoring the stats and using one random year (2011) to dictate the final 10 games. Instead of, you know, the "stats"

[S5Dewey]

That is not what the randomness of baseball tells us. The Guardians, Yankees, and Red Sox are all good teams and are playing well as good teams often do. In September, the bad teams start playing differently and trying new players and may not focus on winning. And some teams just don't match up well with these good teams. Randomness has more to do with stuff that happens in individual games and short series. The best teams tend to have more winning streaks. That is not random.

 

I was recently schooled to believe that the randomness of baseball isn't in wins and losses, it's in players performance. It is certainly outside the realm of "randomness" that virtually every player on the Cleveland Guardians is playing as well as they are during this streak.

[S5Dewey]

But Sale's 300th strikeout got the team all fired up. Doesn't that count for something?

 

Are you suggesting that a player can be "fired up" and play better than they normally would?

[moonslav59]

The stats say we will win the division

The stats say our ace is better when extra rested

The stats say pitching = parades

 

I love how all the usual "stat" folks are on this thread ignoring the stats and using one random year (2011) to dictate the final 10 games. Instead of, you know, the "stats"

 

Stats say rest him.

 

Common sense says rest him.

 

Many championship teams rested key players at some point.

 

 

 

[devildavid]

I was recently schooled to believe that the randomness of baseball isn't in wins and losses, it's in players performance. It is certainly outside the realm of "randomness" that virtually every player on the Cleveland Guardians is playing as well as they are during this streak.

 

No, player performance is random from game to game, even on the Guardians hot streak. They are succeeding as a team, but not every player is having equal success in every game.

[devildavid]

Are you suggesting that a player can be "fired up" and play better than they normally would?

 

I'm only asking the question.

[Bellhorn04]

Stats say rest him.

 

Common sense says rest him.

 

Many championship teams rested key players at some point.

 

 

Terrible arguments moon, and you should know it.

 

I assume you're talking about teams that had a playoff spot clinched.

 

But the new wild card system only came into effect for the 2012 season.

 

The new wild card system was specifically designed to place a big premium on winning the division vs. being one of the wild card teams. That's the whole point here.

 

Not many teams have even been in our particular situation.

[Bellhorn04]

Are you suggesting that a player can be "fired up" and play better than they normally would?

 

devildavid is a philosopher. He has no answers, only questions.

[Slasher9]

the computers at FanGraphs have factored in our discussion. odds have dropped 0.2% overnight.

odds to win the division: 91.8%

surely we can pitch Sale on 2 or 3 days rest?

[Bellhorn04]

the computers at FanGraphs have factored in our discussion. odds have dropped 0.2% overnight.

odds to win the division: 91.8%

 

Even assuming that the 91.8% is actually a real number worth considering, which it isn't, that's still about a 1 in 12 chance of disaster.

[SoxnCycles]

That is not what the randomness of baseball tells us. The Guardians, Yankees, and Red Sox are all good teams and are playing well as good teams often do. In September, the bad teams start playing differently and trying new players and may not focus on winning. And some teams just don't match up well with these good teams. Randomness has more to do with stuff that happens in individual games and short series. The best teams tend to have more winning streaks. That is not random.

 

Some folks like to pretend that one statement, taken out of context, applies to every scenario, even if it was not originally meant that way.

Makes them look smaht, I guess.

[moonslav59]

Terrible arguments moon, and you should know it.

 

I assume you're talking about teams that had a playoff spot clinched.

 

But the new wild card system only came into effect for the 2012 season.

 

The new wild card system was specifically designed to place a big premium on winning the division vs. being one of the wild card teams. That's the whole point here.

 

Not many teams have even been in our particular situation.

 

No, I see the huge advantage of winning the division, despite WC teams winning a ring during this short time.

 

I have acknowledged that my idea lessens our odds of winning the division slightly. I feel this slight decrease in those odds are worth it, since we aren't going to win a ring- the ultimate goal- without Sale doing better than 50-50 great starts-bad starts, which has been his pattern over the last 10 games.

 

I have heard very little to no acknowledgement from "the other side" that not resting Sale more increases the odds that he will not pitch as well in the playoffs. Evidence shows over Sale's career, he declines sharply in Aug/Sept/Oct. This year's numbers show and even sharper decline. His career numbers with an extra day's rest or more blow away his other numbers. It's not even close, yet there is very close to no acknowledgement of those facts- other than some lip service about the White Sox being out of it every year, so maybe Sale wasn't trying. It couldn't possibly be fatigue related is the inference I'm getting. Nope. Not a chance.

 

Win now. Pitch Sale 8 innings and 111 pitches so he can reach 300. Explain it away as those 111 pitches being non stressful. Explain it as a motivational piece- as if Sale needs motivation for the upcoming playoffs. The guys is a beast and he needs to be set up to maximize his playoff success. It's a valid argument with lots of supporting evidence that is being selective ignored or poo-poo'd by those who feel increasing our odds of winning the division by 1-2% (maybe) and getting Sale 300 ks, at the expense of possible burning out the one guy that has nearly single-handedly carried us through the season is singularly important.

 

It was not a slam dunk choice. If it was (within the organization), I have less faith in Sox management than before.

[SoxnCycles]

But Sale's 300th strikeout got the team all fired up. Doesn't that count for something?

 

Gave them some "fire and desire"!!

[cp176]

No, I see the huge advantage of winning the division, despite WC teams winning a ring during this short time.

 

I have acknowledged that my idea lessens our odds of winning the division slightly. I feel this slight decrease in those odds are worth it, since we aren't going to win a ring- the ultimate goal- without Sale doing better than 50-50 great starts-bad starts, which has been his pattern over the last 10 games.

 

I have heard very little to no acknowledgement from "the other side" that not resting Sale more increases the odds that he will not pitch as well in the playoffs. Evidence shows over Sale's career, he declines sharply in Aug/Sept/Oct. This year's numbers show and even sharper decline. His career numbers with an extra day's rest or more blow away his other numbers. It's not even close, yet there is very close to no acknowledgement of those facts- other than some lip service about the White Sox being out of it every year, so maybe Sale wasn't trying. It couldn't possibly be fatigue related is the inference I'm getting. Nope. Not a chance.

 

Win now. Pitch Sale 8 innings and 111 pitches so he can reach 300. Explain it away as those 111 pitches being non stressful. Explain it as a motivational piece- as if Sale needs motivation for the upcoming playoffs. The guys is a beast and he needs to be set up to maximize his playoff success. It's a valid argument with lots of supporting evidence that is being selective ignored or poo-poo'd by those who feel increasing our odds of winning the division by 1-2% (maybe) and getting Sale 300 ks, at the expense of possible burning out the one guy that has nearly single-handedly carried us through the season is singularly important.

 

It was not a slam dunk choice. If it was (within the organization), I have less faith in Sox management than before.

 

Just a question - don't read anything else into it. Are you suggesting that allowing Sale to pitch 6 or 7 innings might have been acceptable but allowing him to go back out there for one more was not?

[Slasher9]

Even assuming that the 91.8% is actually a real number worth considering, which it isn't, that's still about a 1 in 12 chance of disaster.

sorry Bell. i cant keep track of which numbers/stats are real and should be considered and which numbers/stats arent worthy....

how about this stat:

For his career...Chris Sale is 57.8% better with 6+ days rest than he is with 5 days rest.

 

(someone may want to check my math)....

 

5 days rest: 3.25 ERA (80 GS)

6+ days rest: 1.88 ERA (24 GS)

 

stat worth considering? nah. let's just burn his arm up getting personal goals.

[SoxnCycles]

No, I see the huge advantage of winning the division, despite WC teams winning a ring during this short time.

 

I have acknowledged that my idea lessens our odds of winning the division slightly. I feel this slight decrease in those odds are worth it, since we aren't going to win a ring- the ultimate goal- without Sale doing better than 50-50 great starts-bad starts, which has been his pattern over the last 10 games.

 

I have heard very little to no acknowledgement from "the other side" that not resting Sale more increases the odds that he will not pitch as well in the playoffs. Evidence shows over Sale's career, he declines sharply in Aug/Sept/Oct. This year's numbers show and even sharper decline. His career numbers with an extra day's rest or more blow away his other numbers. It's not even close, yet there is very close to no acknowledgement of those facts- other than some lip service about the White Sox being out of it every year, so maybe Sale wasn't trying. It couldn't possibly be fatigue related is the inference I'm getting. Nope. Not a chance.

 

Win now. Pitch Sale 8 innings and 111 pitches so he can reach 300. Explain it away as those 111 pitches being non stressful. Explain it as a motivational piece- as if Sale needs motivation for the upcoming playoffs. The guys is a beast and he needs to be set up to maximize his playoff success. It's a valid argument with lots of supporting evidence that is being selective ignored or poo-poo'd by those who feel increasing our odds of winning the division by 1-2% (maybe) and getting Sale 300 ks, at the expense of possible burning out the one guy that has nearly single-handedly carried us through the season is singularly important.

 

It was not a slam dunk choice. If it was (within the organization), I have less faith in Sox management than before.

 

If his numbers have taken a major drop because of fatigue, how do you know that one skipped start is enough to turn him around?

It's possible that the Guardians have figured him out. The two games against them is enough to skew his numbers for the last 6 weeks.

 

He hasn't given up more than 4 runs to any team, besides the two games against the Tribe.

I'm more inclined to believe that he's tipping pitches, rather than he's feeling tired whenever he faces them.

You could give him a week's rest and the Guardians will probably still light him up in the playoffs.

 

The Yankees (the other team that has given him fits lately) have hit him pretty well too.

When he gave up 8 hits and 3 runs to them in May, was he tired then too?

 

Rant as much as you like, but the Sox are going to do the right thing and concentrate on winning the division, THEN worry about the playoffs.

[Dojji]

The stats say we will win the division

The stats say our ace is better when extra rested

The stats say pitching = parades

 

I love how all the usual "stat" folks are on this thread ignoring the stats and using one random year (2011) to dictate the final 10 games. Instead of, you know, the "stats"

 

The stats are about how to manage large sample sizes. This is a small sample size. When you have a chance to recover you play the odds. When you don't, and with 10 games to go in the season and a very competitive division we don't, you play it safe and rely on common sense.

[Dojji]

Stats say rest him.

 

Common sense says rest him.

 

Many championship teams rested key players at some point.

 

 

 

 

Resting key players down the stretch is a luxury. You earn that luxury by securing your playoff spot early. At the moment it's a luxury we don't have because we still have the division to play for. Everyone wants the option, but that doesn't entitle us to pretend we have it when we don't.

 

When the division is in the bag, then it's time to start resting people. Not before. With a competitive division we don't have the luxury of behaving as if we've already clinched. These last 10 games are still important, we can't behave as if they are not.

[Dojji]

sorry Bell. i cant keep track of which numbers/stats are real and should be considered and which numbers/stats arent worthy....

how about this stat:

For his career...Chris Sale is 57.8% better with 6+ days rest than he is with 5 days rest.

 

(someone may want to check my math)....

 

5 days rest: 3.25 ERA (80 GS)

6+ days rest: 1.88 ERA (24 GS)

 

stat worth considering? nah. let's just burn his arm up getting personal goals.

 

Securing the division is not a personal goal. Sometimes teams have to put their best foot forward right through the season. We're in that situation right now.

 

Have you considered the possibility that Moon and you could be entirely right and we STILL don't actually have the option to follow up on it because the priority of winning the division takes precedent? There isn't a person in this thread that wouldn't like to rest our key players. We are not in a position to do so safely, without risking our advantageous playoff position that. That's the bottom line.

[Slasher9]

Securing the division is not a personal goal. Sometimes teams have to put their best foot forward right through the season. We're in that situation right now.

 

Have you considered the possibility that Moon and you could be entirely right and we STILL don't actually have the option to follow up on it because the priority of winning the division takes precedent? There isn't a person in this thread that wouldn't like to rest our key players. We are not in a position to do so safely, without risking our advantageous playoff position that. That's the bottom line.

 

no reason to send the pitcher out for the 8th inning in an 8-0 game except for personal goals. once the score was 4-0 in the 4th inning the game was over. That's the bottom line.

[Slasher9]

Resting key players down the stretch is a luxury. You earn that luxury by securing your playoff spot early. At the moment it's a luxury we don't have because we still have the division to play for. Everyone wants the option, but that doesn't entitle us to pretend we have it when we don't.

 

When the division is in the bag, then it's time to start resting people. Not before. With a competitive division we don't have the luxury of behaving as if we've already clinched. These last 10 games are still important, we can't behave as if they are not.

what reason is there to send Chris Sale to the mound at 99 pitches to pitch the 8th inning of an (at the time) 8-0 ballgame? those are 12 more pitches on his arm. 12 pitches at that point of the game (99 pitches in + warmups) is stress on the arm. ever throw a ball 95 MPH? me neither. but it puts a lot of stress on the ligaments every time it is done. science.

[Bellhorn04]

So now there are two separate sets of goalposts on the field. The original argument was whether Sale should have started the game. But now we seem to be hearing more of the argument that it was okay for him to start, but not to throw that many pitches.

[Slasher9]

So now there are two separate sets of goalposts on the field. The original argument was whether Sale should have started the game. But now we seem to be hearing more of the argument that it was okay for him to start, but not to throw that many pitches.

 

im all for having either:

1. given him an extra day (which would have been 2 extra days with thursday's off day) and have him start tonight.

2. pulling him after the 5th inning

what i am completely against is:

leaving him in an 8-0 game to throw 111 pitches to get a personal goal.

 

set those goalposts however they need to be set. i havent wavered.

[cp176]

I think that the arguement to not send him back out there for the 8th is valid for sure. Didn't bother me much that he went back out but I think the sensible decision would have been to keep him in the dugout after 7.

[Nick]

Bigger question, just kidding

 

Is it time to go to 6 man rotation? (not talking about RIGHT NOW but in future). We invest heavily in pitchers. Maybe you don't get a buy in from GM on down, including the pitchers. Say we win the World Series, that's another month worth of pitching.

I don't think it would be a bad idea to start 2018 with 6 starters. I think it's too taxing on the arms to go right back at it. Just a thought.

[Nick]

im all for having either:

1. given him an extra day (which would have been 2 extra days with thursday's off day) and have him start tonight.

2. pulling him after the 5th inning

what i am completely against is:

leaving him in an 8-0 game to throw 111 pitches to get a personal goal.

 

set those goalposts however they need to be set. i havent wavered.

 

Great point.....but my guess is JF ASKED Sale how he felt.

 

Again, JF needs to be the grown up in this case if indeed he left Sale in there because Sale wanted to come back out. JF is the manager, he needs to manage even his star Ace. I doubt Sale would ever say, "I've had enough".