Drew Pomeranz was worth it

[moonslav59]

Ok..but I think we can get bogged down in the details too. Keeping Espinoza in the hope that he'd be ready in 2019 could very well affect the acquisitions we make in 2018 and what their performance is in 2019, 2020, and until Espinoza is actually ready to pitch again. How do we figure that into the equation?

 

I'm not fully judging the trade until Espi's team control ends with SD.

[S5Dewey]

Ok..but I think we can get bogged down in the details too. Keeping Espinoza in the hope that he'd be ready in 2019 could very well affect the acquisitions we make in 2018 and what their performance is in 2019, 2020, and until Espinoza is actually ready to pitch again. How do we figure that into the equation?

 

I'm not fully judging the trade until Espi's team control ends with SD.

 

That's my point. I don't think you can, especially given what we know now about Espi. Regardless of what Espi does by 2026, how do you judge the value of that vs. what Pom has brought to the team this year when we needed a pitcher like him to get us to where we are. When you figure that if we hadn't made that trade we most likely wouldn't be where we are...what's that shot at the WS worth? A team doesn't get that shot every year so IMO that trade is already a good one regardless of what else happens. You have to live in the present, not in hopes for the future.

[Nick]

That's my point. I don't think you can, especially given what we know now about Espi. Regardless of what Espi does by 2026, how do you judge the value of that vs. what Pom has brought to the team this year when we needed a pitcher like him to get us to where we are. When you figure that if we hadn't made that trade we most likely wouldn't be where we are...what's that shot at the WS worth? A team doesn't get that shot every year so IMO that trade is already a good one regardless of what else happens. You have to live in the present, not in hopes for the future.

 

Goal is to win the World Series. First big step is to win the Division. (yeah I get the play in game but that's the ultimate crap shoot).

 

Pom has done his part this year to get us there.

 

Acording to some, they'd rather watch lousy baseball for 8 months consoling themselves thinking hey we'll have Espy as our ace in 2022. Hell half of us will be 6 feet and under by then.

[S5Dewey]

Goal is to win the World Series. First big step is to win the Division. (yeah I get the play in game but that's the ultimate crap shoot).

 

Pom has done his part this year to get us there.

 

Acording to some, they'd rather watch lousy baseball for 8 months consoling themselves thinking hey we'll have Espy as our ace in 2022. Hell half of us will be 6 feet and under by then.

 

Let's hope it's only half!! LOL

 

"Andre Dawson has a bruised knee and is listed as day-to-day. (pause) Aren't we all?" - Vin Scully.

[harmony]

Maybe, mabe it was the Sox with better understanding of medical records.

Makes you wonder whose medicals were concealed.😐

[moonslav59]

That's my point. I don't think you can, especially given what we know now about Espi. Regardless of what Espi does by 2026, how do you judge the value of that vs. what Pom has brought to the team this year when we needed a pitcher like him to get us to where we are. When you figure that if we hadn't made that trade we most likely wouldn't be where we are...what's that shot at the WS worth? A team doesn't get that shot every year so IMO that trade is already a good one regardless of what else happens. You have to live in the present, not in hopes for the future.

 

I agree, but it also has something to do with the team's success, rightly or wrongly.

 

Example: no Sox fan complains about trading HRam & Anibal Sanchez for Beckett & Lowell, even though looking at just years of team control and production given, HRam and Sanchez probably did better.

 

Did the Marlins win the trade?

 

I wouldn't say yes, or I might say both teams won.

[Emp9]

I agree, but it also has something to do with the team's success, rightly or wrongly.

 

Example: no Sox fan complains about trading HRam & Anibal Sanchez for Beckett & Lowell, even though looking at just years of team control and production given, HRam and Sanchez probably did better.

 

Did the Marlins win the trade?

 

I wouldn't say yes, or I might say both teams won.

 

It's unusual, but I think both teams actually won that trade.

[Northern Star]

We criticize GMs routinely. Good to see this panning out so far, after dubious early returns.

[Jack Flap]

I agree, but it also has something to do with the team's success, rightly or wrongly.

 

Example: no Sox fan complains about trading HRam & Anibal Sanchez for Beckett & Lowell, even though looking at just years of team control and production given, HRam and Sanchez probably did better.

 

Did the Marlins win the trade?

 

I wouldn't say yes, or I might say both teams won.

 

I remember a lot of people complaining about this one, even after 2007.

[moonslav59]

It's unusual, but I think both teams actually won that trade.

 

I agree, and I hope we will say the same about Pom-Espi.

 

Here's a look back at the Beckett trade:

 

HRam with FLA

2006 .292 /.353/ .480/ .833 (51 SB) ROY

2007 .332/ .386/ .562/ .948 29 HR (51 SB) 10th MVP

2008 .301/ .400/ .540/ .940 33 HR(35 SB) 11th MVP

2009 .342/ .410/ .543/ .954 24 HR (27 SB) 2nd MVP

signed extension

 

Anibal Sanchez

2006 10-3 2.83 (17 GS) 1.19 WHIP

2007 Injured

2008 2-5 5.57 (10 GS) 1.57

2009 4-8 3.87 (16 GS) 1.51

2010 13-12 3.55 (32 GS) 1.34

2011 8-9 3.67 (32 GS) 1.29

(He later led the AL in ERA and FIP in 2013)

[Bellhorn04]

Ok..but I think we can get bogged down in the details too. Keeping Espinoza in the hope that he'd be ready in 2019 could very well affect the acquisitions we make in 2018 and what their performance is in 2019, 2020, and until Espinoza is actually ready to pitch again. How do we figure that into the equation?

 

I'm not fully judging the trade until Espi's team control ends with SD.

 

Good, we can shelve this discussion for the next decade.

[Emp9]

I agree, and I hope we will say the same about Pom-Espi.

 

Here's a look back at the Beckett trade:

 

HRam with FLA

2006 .292 /.353/ .480/ .833 (51 SB) ROY

2007 .332/ .386/ .562/ .948 29 HR (51 SB) 10th MVP

2008 .301/ .400/ .540/ .940 33 HR(35 SB) 11th MVP

2009 .342/ .410/ .543/ .954 24 HR (27 SB) 2nd MVP

signed extension

 

Anibal Sanchez

2006 10-3 2.83 (17 GS) 1.19 WHIP

2007 Injured

2008 2-5 5.57 (10 GS) 1.57

2009 4-8 3.87 (16 GS) 1.51

2010 13-12 3.55 (32 GS) 1.34

2011 8-9 3.67 (32 GS) 1.29

(He later led the AL in ERA and FIP in 2013)

 

Of course Mike Lowell ('07: AS, MVP 5, WS MVP) had a career resurgence of sorts at age 31 and I was extremely wary of a Beckett extension later on (simply wasn't impressed w/ him by then, but what else could the Sox FO have done there? But that's besides the point). They both came up huge in '07 and that's really all that counts. Both had a direct impact on winning another WS which proved '04 wasn't just a fluke.

 

Didn't Sanchez throw a perfect game for the Marlins as well at some point?

[notin]

That's my point. I don't think you can, especially given what we know now about Espi. Regardless of what Espi does by 2026, how do you judge the value of that vs. what Pom has brought to the team this year when we needed a pitcher like him to get us to where we are. When you figure that if we hadn't made that trade we most likely wouldn't be where we are...what's that shot at the WS worth? A team doesn't get that shot every year so IMO that trade is already a good one regardless of what else happens. You have to live in the present, not in hopes for the future.

 

Agreed, I think.

 

If Pomeranz becomes a key figure in some Sox teams, doesn't that alone make the trade worthwhile? Even if Espinoza wins 3 Cy Young's in SD, I can't look back at this deal and decide Pomeranz wasn't worth it and want to give back any pennants or titles. The fact is, highly regarded or not, Espinoza was always a longshot to live up to his potential, like all A-ball prospects are. The biggest question mark in this deal to me was Pomeranz, and so far his addition has been extremely positive...

[moonslav59]

Of course Mike Lowell ('07: AS, MVP 5, WS MVP) had a career resurgence of sorts at age 31 and I was extremely wary of a Beckett extension later on (simply wasn't impressed w/ him by then, but what else could the Sox FO have done there? But that's besides the point). They both came up huge in '07 and that's really all that counts. Both had a direct impact on winning another WS which proved '04 wasn't just a fluke.

 

Agreed. I didn't list what we got from the trade, because I knew we all are aware of how much they both helped us win in '07. That was my point, though, winning a ring is what made the trade "winning" for both sides. Without Beckett and Lowell, we don't win it all. I'm not sure if helping us make the playoffs 2 out of 3 years is the same as winning a ring. Pom has to help us win a ring.

 

Didn't Sanchez throw a perfect game for the Marlins as well at some point?

 

Yes, but his best season was really after his team control ran out with the Marlins.

[Kimmi]

Agreed, I think.

 

If Pomeranz becomes a key figure in some Sox teams, doesn't that alone make the trade worthwhile? Even if Espinoza wins 3 Cy Young's in SD, I can't look back at this deal and decide Pomeranz wasn't worth it and want to give back any pennants or titles. The fact is, highly regarded or not, Espinoza was always a longshot to live up to his potential, like all A-ball prospects are. The biggest question mark in this deal to me was Pomeranz, and so far his addition has been extremely positive...

 

To an extent. IMO, if the Sox win a World Series, then the trade is worth it, even if Espinoza goes on to be a perennial Cy Young winner. Winning the World Series is the ultimate goal.

 

If Pom helps lead us to the postseason (which he is doing), but we fall short of a championship, then whether is was worth it or not becomes a little more shady. Might we have subsequently won a championship with Espinoza if he wasn't traded? Might we have eventually traded him for another player and subsequently won a championship?

 

There's no way of knowing for sure, but I can't go as far as saying that the trade was worth it just because we make it to the postseason. And again, I thought the trade was necessary, but so far, we've fallen short of the goal.

[Kimmi]

Goal is to win the World Series. First big step is to win the Division. (yeah I get the play in game but that's the ultimate crap shoot).

 

Pom has done his part this year to get us there.

 

Acording to some, they'd rather watch lousy baseball for 8 months consoling themselves thinking hey we'll have Espy as our ace in 2022. Hell half of us will be 6 feet and under by then.

 

Perhaps some of us think it's possible to have our cake and eat it too. Maybe it's possible to have a good team now and still have a good team post cliff.

[moonslav59]

To an extent. IMO, if the Sox win a World Series, then the trade is worth it, even if Espinoza goes on to be a perennial Cy Young winner. Winning the World Series is the ultimate goal.

 

If Pom helps lead us to the postseason (which he is doing), but we fall short of a championship, then whether is was worth it or not becomes a little more shady. Might we have subsequently won a championship with Espinoza if he wasn't traded? Might we have eventually traded him for another player and subsequently won a championship?

 

There's no way of knowing for sure, but I can't go as far as saying that the trade was worth it just because we make it to the postseason. And again, I thought the trade was necessary, but so far, we've fallen short of the goal.

 

Great points.

 

I liked Pom and his 3 playoff cycles of team control. He didn't help last year, but he has this year. He's done better than anyone expected, but we need a ring to clinch the idea that we "won the trade" or "broke even" assuming Espi goes on to do well.

[S5Dewey]

What if The Sox don't win the WS with Pom and the M's don't win the WS with Espi (or whomever he gets traded for) - which is much more likely.

 

What if the M's trade Espi for a Mike Trout type player and then go on to win the WS? Do we then assume that we could/would have made that same trade? and therefor it was a bad trade for us.

 

IMO there are just too many variables to be able to determine who "won" nearly any trade.

[moonslav59]

What if The Sox don't win the WS with Pom and the M's don't win the WS with Espi (or whomever he gets traded for) - which is much more likely.

 

What if the M's trade Espi for a Mike Trout type player and then go on to win the WS? Do we then assume that we could/would have made that same trade? and therefor it was a bad trade for us.

 

IMO there are just too many variables to be able to determine who "won" nearly any trade.

 

The "M's"?

[S5Dewey]

The "M's"?

 

Hey, I get those insignificant west coast teams confused. :-) I need to see more of them.

[notin]

What if The Sox don't win the WS with Pom and the M's don't win the WS with Espi (or whomever he gets traded for) - which is much more likely.

 

What if the M's trade Espi for a Mike Trout type player and then go on to win the WS? Do we then assume that we could/would have made that same trade? and therefor it was a bad trade for us.

 

IMO there are just too many variables to be able to determine who "won" nearly any trade.

 

Even if the Sox were able to make a hypothetical equivalent to a hypothetical trade of Espinoza for Trout (or his equal), that still doesn't guarantee anything. This team had Ted Williams for 22 years and didn't win a title with him...

[notin]

The concept of "winning" a trade is kind of silly. Certainly there are trades where one team gives way too much for, say, Shelby Miller. But most trades are built on a concept of equality, and offset by the chances that some players simply don't pan out.

 

I have never been a huge Dombrowski fan, but I think he did a good job with this trade...

[moonslav59]

The concept of "winning" a trade is kind of silly. Certainly there are trades where one team gives way too much for, say, Shelby Miller. But most trades are built on a concept of equality, and offset by the chances that some players simply don't pan out.

 

I have never been a huge Dombrowski fan, but I think he did a good job with this trade...

 

Just about every DD trade has looked good (so far).

[cp176]

The latest interview with Pomeranz pretty much sums up how I feel about this big kid. He quite clearly is happy to be here and in no way does he think that we have seen the best of him. he has some solid personal performance goals for the future and I hope we get a chance to see him develop as he moves along. The potential for this pitching staff to be about as good as there is is right there. I would keep as many of them together as I possibly could.

[Jasonbay44]

I was mixed on when we made the trade, but Pomeranz has definitely shut a lot of people up this year. He's been fantastic, but lets keep in mind Espinoza is only 19. There is still a solid chance he ends up living up the hype. Even when he's done with TJS and all the injuries he'll be in his early 20s. Obviously the trade looks fantastic right now, and if he wins us a world series, who cares what Espinoza ever does (IE Beckett/Lowell for Hanley trade, Hanley was great, but Beckett + Lowell won a ring), but the jury is still out on this kid.

[cp176]

I was mixed on when we made the trade, but Pomeranz has definitely shut a lot of people up this year. He's been fantastic, but lets keep in mind Espinoza is only 19. There is still a solid chance he ends up living up the hype. Even when he's done with TJS and all the injuries he'll be in his early 20s. Obviously the trade looks fantastic right now, and if he wins us a world series, who cares what Espinoza ever does (IE Beckett/Lowell for Hanley trade, Hanley was great, but Beckett + Lowell won a ring), but the jury is still out on this kid.

 

There is no doubt about the fact that Espi could become the pitcher many have suggested that he might. The point that I am trying to make is that no one knows what the end game for Pomeranz might be. Quite a few people have thrown out guesses based on what he has done over the past couple of years. I don't think that they know. I really think that there is chance maybe even a good chance that his best years are ahead of him.

[notin]

Just about every DD trade has looked good (so far).

 

I would agree.

 

Then I remembered the Shaw-Thornburg trade. And the Miley trade hasn't looked very good yet, either.

 

And as good as Kimbrel has been, that trade still strikes me as a bad idea at that time. Given the state of the Sox rotation at the time, closer was the last thing they needed and a silly way to spend the farm...

Edited September 24, 2017 by notin

[notin]

There is no doubt about the fact that Espi could become the pitcher many have suggested that he might. The point that I am trying to make is that no one knows what the end game for Pomeranz might be. Quite a few people have thrown out guesses based on what he has done over the past couple of years. I don't think that they know. I really think that there is chance maybe even a good chance that his best years are ahead of him.

 

But does it matter? What if Espinoza is Greg Maddux 2.0? Does that mean getting a dirt cheap quality starter for multiple years was a bad move?

[moonslav59]

I agree. Except the whole idea of emptying the farm for Kimbrel - terrific as he is - still seemed dumb for a team that had so many needs beyond closer...

 

I hated the Kimbrel deal, even though I thought he'd be a top 3 closer for us.

 

It looks better now due to the sharp rise in top closer costs and the cliff drop by Guerra.

 

I disliked the Pom trade, even though I liked Pom, but he's done great this year, and Espi had surgery.

 

All the other trades I liked or was okay with.

[Kimmi]

The concept of "winning" a trade is kind of silly. Certainly there are trades where one team gives way too much for, say, Shelby Miller. But most trades are built on a concept of equality, and offset by the chances that some players simply don't pan out.

 

I have never been a huge Dombrowski fan, but I think he did a good job with this trade...

 

Fair post.