A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[FredLynn]

Good to see Carson Smith close out the game. Could he be the 7th inning guy? Throw in Price, who can go multiple innings, our pen looks solid if we get to the playoffs.

 

The pitching overall has been championship caliber all year long. As everyone here knows, its the hitting that needs to pick it up if we are going to make a deep run into the playoffs. Somehow guys like Bogaerts and Ramirez are going to have to do some things they haven't done since June.

[moonslav59]

Carson Smith might be huge along with Reed and Kimbrel. Also do not discount Price. Quietly the staff has shaken off the tough start to be close to what we thought they would be. A top 5 staff in MLB. For a team that has pitched more innings than any staff in MLB by a pretty wide margin I'll take it. The line up on the other hand has too many not quite good enoughs (hanley, moreland), just having an off year(JBJ, Betts, Bogarts), or can't stay on the field(Holt, Peddy) to overcome. Benny, Devers, and Nunez have been the only "surprise" contributors. Lets hope the hitters can get alittle hot in the playoffs, and the pitchers continue to slowly step up as they have all year.

 

Vaz has also been a "surprise".

[oldtimer]

Vaz has also been a "surprise".

 

We need him in the lineup every night. Catch or DH him, but find a way to keep his bat in the lineup. I wouldn't have guessed it but he is now one of our better hitters.

[moonslav59]

I think we can see why Sox management had a big concern about the defensive readiness of Devers.

 

Of course, even as bad has he has looked, especially at key moments in games, Pablo was even worse.

[S5Dewey]

I think we can see why Sox management had a big concern about the defensive readiness of Devers.

 

Of course, even as bad has he has looked, especially at key moments in games, Pablo was even worse.

 

As I said earlier today, whatever he is he's the best we've got for 3B, scary as that may be.

[moonslav59]

As I said earlier today, whatever he is he's the best we've got for 3B, scary as that may be.

 

Without a doubt.

 

Lin's a better fielder, but is far away with the bat.

 

A while ago, I suggested the idea of maybe finding a big bat clean up hitting 3Bman and moving Devers to 1B over the winter. I was kind of surprised how many poster did not even want to consider the idea.

 

(Note: I'm not saying I want to move a 20 year old player off position based on tiny sample sizes, but if we can get a better bat at 3B than 1st, I'm considering it.

[moonslav59]

Here's a list of possible trade or FA targets for this winter listed by 2017 WAR:

 

6.4 Votto

6.1 Stanton

4.9 Cozart

4.8 Upton

4.4 Donaldson

4.0 Hosmer

3.7 Dozier

3.4 JD Martinez

3.4 Santana

3.2 Lowrie

3.2 Machado

3.0 Morrison

3.0 Beltre

 

Looking at just offense and filling the clean-up slot?

OPS

 

1.052 JD Martinez

1.035 Votto

1.006 Stanton

.949 Cozart

.949 Donaldson

.922 Beltre

.913 Upton

.910 Jose Abreu

.897 Hosmer

.865 Morrison

.854 Alonso

.849 Santana

.843 Duda

.838 Reynolds

.835 Moustakas

.832 Bruce

 

 

[cp176]

Denver's throw to first last night easily could have been dug out of the dirt. I was surprised that it wasn't at least knocked down. Obviously it wasn't a good throw but not allowing the runner to get to second should have been just as important to Moreland as digging a ball out of the dirt and keeping it in front of you by any good catcher in that situation.

[Bellhorn04]

A while ago, I suggested the idea of maybe finding a big bat clean up hitting 3Bman and moving Devers to 1B over the winter. I was kind of surprised how many poster did not even want to consider the idea.

 

I think it's certainly a worthwhile idea. Either that or Raffy really has to improve in the field.

[BstHcpr]

Here's a list of possible trade or FA targets for this winter listed by 2017 WAR:

 

6.4 Votto

6.1 Stanton

4.9 Cozart

4.8 Upton

4.4 Donaldson

4.0 Hosmer

3.7 Dozier

3.4 JD Martinez

3.4 Santana

3.2 Lowrie

3.2 Machado

3.0 Morrison

3.0 Beltre

 

Looking at just offense and filling the clean-up slot?

OPS

 

1.052 JD Martinez

1.035 Votto

1.006 Stanton

.949 Cozart

.949 Donaldson

.922 Beltre

.913 Upton

.910 Jose Abreu

.897 Hosmer

.865 Morrison

.854 Alonso

.849 Santana

.843 Duda

.838 Reynolds

.835 Moustakas

.832 Bruce

 

 

 

We probably can get Duda, Morrison, or Alonso for a pittance in the off-season.

[mvp 78]

Denver's throw to first last night easily could have been dug out of the dirt. I was surprised that it wasn't at least knocked down. Obviously it wasn't a good throw but not allowing the runner to get to second should have been just as important to Moreland as digging a ball out of the dirt and keeping it in front of you by any good catcher in that situation.

 

There are no good 1B anymore. Sad!

[oldtimer]

Here's a list of possible trade or FA targets for this winter listed by 2017 WAR:

 

6.4 Votto

6.1 Stanton

4.9 Cozart

4.8 Upton

4.4 Donaldson

4.0 Hosmer

3.7 Dozier

3.4 JD Martinez

3.4 Santana

3.2 Lowrie

3.2 Machado

3.0 Morrison

3.0 Beltre

 

Looking at just offense and filling the clean-up slot?

OPS

 

1.052 JD Martinez

1.035 Votto

1.006 Stanton

.949 Cozart

.949 Donaldson

.922 Beltre

.913 Upton

.910 Jose Abreu

.897 Hosmer

.865 Morrison

.854 Alonso

.849 Santana

.843 Duda

.838 Reynolds

.835 Moustakas

.832 Bruce

 

 

 

Hosmer makes some sense since he is of prime age and fits a position we need to fill. He has good numbers at the plate. Probably would be in competition with the Yankees for his services and it would require a expensive contract of around $15 for 5 years. If we did that, and signed Nunez, we would be in a fairly good spot next season although Devers defense needs to get much better.

[mvp 78]

Hosmer makes some sense since he is of prime age and fits a position we need to fill. He has good numbers at the plate. Probably would be in competition with the Yankees for his services and it would require a expensive contract of around $15 for 5 years. If we did that, and signed Nunez, we would be in a fairly good spot next season although Devers defense needs to get much better.

 

Moreland is at 8 DRS. Hosmer is at -5 DRS. No thanks. Might as well just hand JD Martinez a 1B glove.

[moonslav59]

Moreland is at 8 DRS. Hosmer is at -5 DRS. No thanks. Might as well just hand JD Martinez a 1B glove.

 

I'm not for signing Hosmer.

 

I'd prefer Martinez or Moustakas. If they are way too costly, I might try to sign Duda to a one year deal with significantly bigger money than others are offering (per year) for 2+ years.

[mvp 78]

I'm not for signing Hosmer.

 

I'd prefer Martinez or Moustakas. If they are way too costly, I might try to sign Duda to a one year deal with significantly bigger money than others are offering (per year) for 2+ years.

 

Can't say I've seen enough of Duda to be for or against him.

[veryoldtimer]

Awhile back, somebody (probably Moon) posted the OPS numbers of Sox players for 2014, 2015 ,2016 and 2017.

I've been waiting for someone to point out that the 2017 numbers are pretty much the same as 2015.

Except in 2015, we had Papi "protecting" the lineup and finished last.

This year, no Papi, and the Sox are in 1st with the same OPS as 2015.

Maybe it's the pitching.

I think I remember somebody mentioning "regression to the mean"

Perhaps 2016 was the exception and the Sox got lucky, like, say 2013.

Don't want to be "Debbie Downer" but maybe our hitters just aren't as good as we wish they were.

PS: I live in south Miami-Dade county and my daughter and her family live in the lower Keys.

My friend Irma was a bitch.

[mvp 78]

Awhile back, somebody (probably Moon) posted the OPS numbers of Sox players for 2014, 2015 ,2016 and 2017.

I've been waiting for someone to point out that the 2017 numbers are pretty much the same as 2015.

Except in 2015, we had Papi "protecting" the lineup and finished last.

This year, no Papi, and the Sox are in 1st with the same OPS as 2015.

Maybe it's the pitching.

I think I remember somebody mentioning "regression to the mean"

Perhaps 2016 was the exception and the Sox got lucky, like, say 2013.

Don't want to be "Debbie Downer" but maybe our hitters just aren't as good as we wish they were.

PS: I live in south Miami-Dade county and my daughter and her family live in the lower Keys.

My friend Irma was a bitch.

 

This is very true. I think we are all hopeful that Betts/JBJ/Benny are truly franchise players. We just won't know for a few more years. A lot of players have had great starts to their careers and have disappeared. The real test of the organization is to see how they handle extending these young guys. They'll need to move on from the overrated ones and sign the really good ones. It'll be interesting to see.

 

I have family in Tampa and Port St Lucie. Hope yours is doing ok.

[a700hitter]

Awhile back, somebody (probably Moon) posted the OPS numbers of Sox players for 2014, 2015 ,2016 and 2017.

I've been waiting for someone to point out that the 2017 numbers are pretty much the same as 2015.

Except in 2015, we had Papi "protecting" the lineup and finished last.

This year, no Papi, and the Sox are in 1st with the same OPS as 2015.

Maybe it's the pitching.

I think I remember somebody mentioning "regression to the mean"

Perhaps 2016 was the exception and the Sox got lucky, like, say 2013.

Don't want to be "Debbie Downer" but maybe our hitters just aren't as good as we wish they were.

PS: I live in south Miami-Dade county and my daughter and her family live in the lower Keys.

My friend Irma was a bitch.

The problem in 2015 was the pitching. The mantra hear by me hear on TalkSox in discussions about the 2015 team was "It's the Pitching Stupid."

[Spudboy]

What's the deal with Morrison? I assume that's the slugging 1st baseman from Tampa?

 

His offensive numbers this years sure look tailor made for our team.

[Spudboy]

Denver's throw to first last night easily could have been dug out of the dirt. I was surprised that it wasn't at least knocked down. Obviously it wasn't a good throw but not allowing the runner to get to second should have been just as important to Moreland as digging a ball out of the dirt and keeping it in front of you by any good catcher in that situation.

 

I did not see this play but I trust your judgment here. I do like Moreland, especially for the money.

 

And while I have come to view him as a very solid defensive player, no way in hell should this guy ever own a Gold Glove.

 

I have pointed out his deficiencies in blocking skipping throws.

 

He ain't George Scott. He ain't even Mike Napoli.

[a700hitter]

Denver's throw to first last night easily could have been dug out of the dirt. I was surprised that it wasn't at least knocked down. Obviously it wasn't a good throw but not allowing the runner to get to second should have been just as important to Moreland as digging a ball out of the dirt and keeping it in front of you by any good catcher in that situation.

I thought the same thing. Moreland picks that ball more often than not -- maybe 8 times out of 10. It appeared to be a short hop not a mid hop that is harder to handle. And it seems to me that over the last 2-3 games that we are getting an inordinate number of plays at 3B. Maybe it just seems that way because I am a bit nervous about the kid's fielding. Last night, he got several plays and handled them all flawlessly except for the very minor miscommunication with Pom on a dribbler, but no one had a play on that.

[mvp 78]

The problem in 2015 was the pitching. The mantra hear by me hear on TalkSox in discussions about the 2015 team was "It's the Pitching Stupid."

 

Lies. They had 5 aces that year. Remember?

[mvp 78]

What's the deal with Morrison? I assume that's the slugging 1st baseman from Tampa?

 

His offensive numbers this years sure look tailor made for our team.

 

He goes in extended slumps and isn't a very good fielder. This year's numbers may be an abberation.

 

If the money is right, it could be a good chance to take.

[a700hitter]

He goes in extended slumps and isn't a very good fielder. This year's numbers may be an abberation.

 

If the money is right, it could be a good chance to take.

I'd prefer to go for a big bomber. I like the idea of J.D. Martinez. I have been watching a lot of Arizona's games the last couple of months. Goldy is a huge offensive force, but J.D. has scary power.

[FredLynn]

I thought the same thing. Moreland picks that ball more often than not -- maybe 8 times out of 10. It appeared to be a short hop not a mid hop that is harder to handle. And it seems to me that over the last 2-3 games that we are getting an inordinate number of plays at 3B. Maybe it just seems that way because I am a bit nervous about the kid's fielding. Last night, he got several plays and handled them all flawlessly except for the very minor miscommunication with Pom on a dribbler, but no one had a play on that.

 

Yeah, Moreland usually gets that ball. That said, Devers has become a real liability at 3B. Last night his error nearly threw the game away, one that we had won. I think that its time for Farrell to consider replacing him for defensive purposes in late close games before he actually costs us a game.

[a700hitter]

Yeah, Moreland usually gets that ball. That said, Devers has become a real liability at 3B. Last night his error nearly threw the game away, one that we had won. I think that its time for Farrell to consider replacing him for defensive purposes in late close games before he actually costs us a game.

I thought about the late inning defensive replacement idea. Last night, I think he still had Marrero on the bench.

[mvp 78]

I'd prefer to go for a big bomber. I like the idea of J.D. Martinez. I have been watching a lot of Arizona's games the last couple of months. Goldy is a huge offensive force, but J.D. has scary power.

 

I agree. JD is who I go after. I just wonder if the Sox balk at the price tag.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, Moreland usually gets that ball. That said, Devers has become a real liability at 3B. Last night his error nearly threw the game away, one that we had won. I think that its time for Farrell to consider replacing him for defensive purposes in late close games before he actually costs us a game.

 

I still can't think of one time that Moreland has picked a ball or made a difficult play on a throw.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree. JD is who I go after. I just wonder if the Sox balk at the price tag.

 

He is going to cost a pretty penny as the biggest bopper on the market. An aging Encarnacion got $20 mil per and he's a pure DH. Martinez isn't a pure DH (yet) and is 4 years younger. He is probably going to get a 5 yr $100+ mil deal on the open market

Edited September 20, 2017 by jacksonianmarch

[Maxbialystock]

Denver's throw to first last night easily could have been dug out of the dirt. I was surprised that it wasn't at least knocked down. Obviously it wasn't a good throw but not allowing the runner to get to second should have been just as important to Moreland as digging a ball out of the dirt and keeping it in front of you by any good catcher in that situation.

 

I don't have a replay, but saw the replays during the game and disagree. Moreland has to make a split second decision on whether to block the throw or to keep his foot on the bag and stretch for it. He wanted the out and no doubt felt he could field it on the hop. As for what happened, I just trust that a first baseman with his experience had the glove in the right place but of course could not be certain of the bounce. I also think it's a tad strange to blame this on Moreland when Devers was the one the official scorer charged with the error. Let's not forget that Devers had abundant time on that throw, so he is the one that made that play close and the decision on whether to block or get the out had to be made.