A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[moonslav59]

Top AL top 4 contending team RP'ers:

 

WHIP (30+ IP)

 

0.67 Kimbrel

0.71 Green

0.79 Miller

0.89 Warren

0.90 Robertson

0.93 Devenski

0.99 Harris

1.01 Giles

1.05 Scott

1.06 Workman

1.09 Goody

1.11 Kahnle

1.14 Abad

1.16 Allen

1.21 Otero

 

[Maxbialystock]

Updated Team OPS:

(With Sox numbers only/ 250+ OPS unless noted)

 

.885 Nunez (171 PA)

.873 Devers (164)

.813 Travis (59)

.791 Pedey

.788 Beni

.777 Betts

.764 Moreland

.757 HRam

.755 JBJ

.742 Vaz

.723 Lin (63)

.722 Bogey

.634 Leon

.582 Marrero (170)

.494 Holt (127)

.473 Davis (22)

 

For those who wanted a "balanced line up with no black holes," we got it. The problem is, we have "balanced" mediocrity.

 

Our top 8 PA players all fall between .722 (Bogey) and .791 (Pedey).

 

I'm not sure any team in MLB has such a tight range with their top 8.

 

 

Here's our 2nd half OPS numbers (60+ PAs)

 

.885 Nunez

.873 Devers

.866 Vaz

.832 Pedey

 

.766 Beni

 

.708 Moreland

.700 HRam

.693 Young

.672 Betts (big jump from last night)

 

.597 JBJ

.573 Bogey

.563 Leon

.501 Holt

 

 

 

 

 

 

2d half numbers pretty glaring and very obviously not grouped around a mean. JBJ, Bogey, and Leon still get plenty of plate appearances.

[oldtimer]

2d half numbers pretty glaring and very obviously not grouped around a mean. JBJ, Bogey, and Leon still get plenty of plate appearances.

 

Our most consistent hitter is Nunez and he is out for at least another 3 or 4 days. Pedey is our second most consistent and he is hobbled, which leads us to having to play JBJ, Bogey and in some case leon. So today we go with Bogey leading off and Holt and JBJ in the lineup. It spells trouble scoring runs. Hanley gets to sit as he has added nothing of late. We need more consistency from Betts. A couple of hard hit balls from him last night and we would have been in the game. Instead, it was pop-up city, as Vitale would say. Cross your fingers as another loss today would be hard to take.

[moonslav59]

2d half numbers pretty glaring and very obviously not grouped around a mean. JBJ, Bogey, and Leon still get plenty of plate appearances.

.

Holt, too.

 

He has more 2nd half PAs than Leon (112 to 103).

 

[moonslav59]

Vaz is now closing in on JBJ and Moreland to take 4th place in Sox OPS (300+ PAs with the Sox)

 

.806 Pedey

.803 Beni

.786 Betts

.764 Moreland

.761 JBJ

.757 Vaz

.743 HRam

.729 Bogey

[mvp 78]

Vaz is now closing in on JBJ and Moreland to take 4th place in Sox OPS (300+ PAs with the Sox)

 

.806 Pedey

.803 Beni

.786 Betts

.764 Moreland

.761 JBJ

.757 Vaz

.743 HRam

.729 Bogey

 

Hit him 3rd!

[Slasher9]

Hit him 3rd!

 

JBj should be batting 3rd. he has the 5th best OPS and your 5th best hitter should bat 3rd. so i am told.

yes, i will beat this horse for the rest of my life......

[mvp 78]

JBj should be batting 3rd. he has the 5th best OPS and your 5th best hitter should bat 3rd. so i am told.

yes, i will beat this horse for the rest of my life......

 

No, that ranking is based solely on OBP, SLG is not factored in for whatever reason.

[oldtimer]

JBj should be batting 3rd. he has the 5th best OPS and your 5th best hitter should bat 3rd. so i am told.

yes, i will beat this horse for the rest of my life......

 

JBJ's performance seems to be sensitive to where he appears in the order. I'm not sure he belongs in 9th but he hasn't done well when pushed up in the order

[mvp 78]

JBJ's performance seems to be sensitive to where he appears in the order. I'm not sure he belongs in 9th but he hasn't done well when pushed up in the order

 

He only has 44 AB's 1 - 4. Can't draw much of a conclusion from that. Going strictly on the stats, 6th in the order has been his preferred location. No reason to avoid having him 2nd if he's hot.

[moonslav59]

JBJ's performance seems to be sensitive to where he appears in the order. I'm not sure he belongs in 9th but he hasn't done well when pushed up in the order

 

He has more PAs batting 9th, but he has plenty batting 6th. His numbers are too good to bat 9th so much, especially on a team hurting for hitting and especially power.

 

.854 in 364 PAs batting 6th

 

.773 in 749 PAs batting 9th.

 

2017 OBP

.387 Pedey

.360 Beni

.341 Betts

.337 Vaz

.333 JBJ

.333 Bogey

.330 Moreland

.320 HRam

 

SLG

.445 Betts

.443 Beni

.434 Moreland

.428 JBJ

.423 HRam

.420 Vaz

.419 Pedey

.396 Bogey

 

There's not much variance on either list, but JBJ has been better than HRam in OBP and SLG, and yet HRam almost always bats 4th or 5th.

[Bellhorn04]

There's not much variance on either list, but JBJ has been better than HRam in OBP and SLG, and yet HRam almost always bats 4th or 5th.

 

Hanley has hit 6th or 7th in 8 of his last 13 games. Tonight he's not starting.

[oldtimer]

Hanley has hit 6th or 7th in 8 of his last 13 games. Tonight he's not starting.

 

Hanley hasn't got the joob done for whatever reason. Good to give him additional rest.

[moonslav59]

Hanley has hit 6th or 7th in 8 of his last 13 games. Tonight he's not starting.

 

HRam is our HR leader, so I can understand him being placed 4th or 5th. JF was probably hoping against hope, he'd get hot. I still think JBJ should have been given a longer look in the higher slots.

 

HRam has had 16 starts beyond the 5 slot. Almost all were after we acquired Nunez and Devers. My guess is hardly any were to give JBJ a shot at the 4 - 5 slot.

 

Like I said, there's not much difference between anyone on this team, but I thought waited too long to move some players down and give others a chance.

 

It's not a big issue with me, but I so think it's significant.

[Kimmi]

JBJ's performance seems to be sensitive to where he appears in the order. I'm not sure he belongs in 9th but he hasn't done well when pushed up in the order

 

I personally really like JBJ batting 9th.

[Kimmi]

Hanley hasn't got the joob done for whatever reason. Good to give him additional rest.

 

Word on the street is that Hanley's shoulder(s) is(are) flaring up again. I'd give him several days off.

[moonslav59]

Word on the street is that Hanley's shoulder(s) is(are) flaring up again. I'd give him several days off.

 

Does he need surgery...like in the off season?

[oldtimer]

Word on the street is that Hanley's shoulder(s) is(are) flaring up again. I'd give him several days off.

 

Where did that come from. Is it from a sportswriter?

[harmony]

Where did that come from. Is it from a sportswriter?

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2017/09/hanley_ramirez_out_of_the_lineup_again_for_red_sox_at_rays

[moonslav59]

With our two top OPSs guys going 0 for 9 (Pedey) and 2 for 8 (Beni) and our bottom guy (Bogey) going 4 for 7 with a BB, we have an almost unbelievable tight variance between our 1 and 8 batters by PAs:

 

.798 Beni

.788 Betts

.788 Pedey

.772 Moreland

.762 JBJ

.761 Vaz

.743 HRam

.736 Bogey

 

Our top 8 hitters by PAs are all within 62 points from each other!

 

Others

 

.885 Nunez

.841 Devers

.792 Travis

.710 Lin

.635 Leon

.634 Davis

.604 Marrero

.480 Holt

 

[oldtimer]

We will face another tough one tonight, with having to face Cobb (their best) with Porcello (our worst starter). They swing for the fences and Porcello is prone to give up HRs. We both used a lot of BP last night so the guys on both sides will be tired, including the fiield players.

 

We are now suffering with Nunez out, Hanley hurting and in an awful slump (is he even usable?) and Pedey on one good leg. Our right hand hitting is compromised. Good to see Bogaerts and Betts help the cause as we really need them. Time to roll out Travis and Vaz, although Cobb is really tough on Righties (and Lefties). I admit to losing heart and sacking out last ight after 10 innings. I also played a 3 1/2 hour game in the heat yesterday and these old bone cry out for sleep. I thought we were a 50/50 proposition when I hit the hay and was pleasantly surprised that we had won the bet. Maybe the Rays just ran out of relief pitching.

 

Our guys, especially Beni, Bradley and Moreland need to pull the ball more often to keep the ball away from the Rays center fielder. That kid can play.

[Kimmi]

Where did that come from. Is it from a sportswriter?

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2017/09/hanley_ramirez_out_of_the_lineup_again_for_red_sox_at_rays

 

Yes. Last night Farrell said something about the shoulders, but this morning I'm reading that Hanley has had an MRI on his left biceps, and it appears that he will be out for a while.

 

The plan is to use Pedroia primarily as the DH to rest his knee, and get Nunez back at 2B.

 

Thanks for the link Harmony.

[notin]

We will face another tough one tonight, with having to face Cobb (their best) with Porcello (our worst starter). They swing for the fences and Porcello is prone to give up HRs. We both used a lot of BP last night so the guys on both sides will be tired, including the fiield players.

 

We are now suffering with Nunez out, Hanley hurting and in an awful slump (is he even usable?) and Pedey on one good leg. Our right hand hitting is compromised. Good to see Bogaerts and Betts help the cause as we really need them. Time to roll out Travis and Vaz, although Cobb is really tough on Righties (and Lefties). I admit to losing heart and sacking out last ight after 10 innings. I also played a 3 1/2 hour game in the heat yesterday and these old bone cry out for sleep. I thought we were a 50/50 proposition when I hit the hay and was pleasantly surprised that we had won the bet. Maybe the Rays just ran out of relief pitching.

 

Our guys, especially Beni, Bradley and Moreland need to pull the ball more often to keep the ball away from the Rays center fielder. That kid can play.

 

You lost heart one inning after a 3-run ninth?

 

I know a lot of people have complained about the Sox offense this year, but this team has been about as deadly against closers as any Sox team in a long time....

[moonslav59]

You lost heart one inning after a 3-run ninth?

 

I know a lot of people have complained about the Sox offense this year, but this team has been about as deadly against closers as any Sox team in a long time....

 

Great point- even against the best closers.

[moonslav59]

Unless we really need a win to avoid the wild card game, I'd really try to give Sale some extra rest. Here's the rest of the schedule:

 

(All our starters just got one extra day of rest before their last start- some got 2 days.

 

@TBR Porcello

@TBR ERod

@BAL Fister

@BAL Pom

@BAL (Velazquez-Price tandem start?)

---off----

@CIN Sale +2

@CIN Porc +2

@CIN ERod +2

TOR Fister +2

TOR Pom +2

TOR (Velazquez/Price)

HOU Sale+1

HOU Porc +1

HOU ERod+1

HOU Fister +1

----off----

----off----

----off----

Gm1 Sale +2

Gm2 Pom +4

----off----

Gm3 Fister+1

Gm4 ERod +4

Gm 5 Sale (reg rest)

 

 

[cp176]

You lost heart one inning after a 3-run ninth?

 

I know a lot of people have complained about the Sox offense this year, but this team has been about as deadly against closers as any Sox team in a long time....

 

One of their big plusses is that they do not quit. On occasion they do make some seemingly silly mistakes, but you still are going to have to beat them. They don't hang their heads. They are giving us all some good entertainment. I know by now how we all feel about Farrell and he puzzles me too but his team plays hard. Someone is doing something right here in addition to the players. With the injuries to their pitching staff that they have dealt with this year, I tend to think that they have over achieved. In a perfect case scenario, we would have had Sale, Price (the good one), Porcello (at least sort of close to last year Porcello), Pomeranz, E-Rod, Wright (remember him), with Smith and Thornburg. My hindsight meter says that we would have been out of Yankee reach by now if things had worked out the way we hoped they would.

[moonslav59]

One of their big plusses is that they do not quit. On occasion they do make some seemingly silly mistakes, but you still are going to have to beat them. They don't hang their heads. They are giving us all some good entertainment. I know by now how we all feel about Farrell and he puzzles me too but his team plays hard. Someone is doing something right here in addition to the players. With the injuries to their pitching staff that they have dealt with this year, I tend to think that they have over achieved. In a perfect case scenario, we would have had Sale, Price (the good one), Porcello (at least sort of close to last year Porcello), Pomeranz, E-Rod, Wright (remember him), with Smith and Thornburg. My hindsight meter says that we would have been out of Yankee reach by now if things had worked out the way we hoped they would.

 

All teams have injuries.

 

I am thrilled with what JF has gotten out of our pitching staff, particularly the pen. At the start of the year, I felt our pen, not 3B, was our weakest (not weak) link, and that was before Thornburg and Ross went down and we still had hopes on Smith returning in June or July.

 

Our everyday players have been pretty healthy, in terms of not missing many games, but several players have dealt with injury issues for much of the year. With the everyday players, I just can't get past the decline or steep decline from just about every Sox player, except Vaz. I get the excuses for some of them, but even with valid excuses, it is still very rare to see over 90% of returning players decline, especially on a team with no player over 32-33 to start the season.

 

I projected 100 wins with normal injuries. I'm not sure I'd say we've had more or less than "normal", so I see us as slightly under performing overall. It's a close call, and I can see areas we've done better than expected (despite injuries and health issues).

 

[moonslav59]

We've had 39 comeback wins and 10 walk-off wins.

 

We've blown 24 leads and have lost 4 times on walk-offs.

 

Our mean runs scored is 4.

If we score 5+ runs in our next 3 games, our mean runs scored would be 5.

 

Our mean runs allowed is also 4.

If we allow 3 runs or less in our next 4 games, it would be 3.

 

In other words, we are very close to having means of 5 to 3.

 

How does this compare to Cleveland, Houston and NYY?

 

CLE:

Mean runs scored: also 4 (also 3 games from being 5)

Mean runs allowed: 3 (10 gms from 4 & 14 from 2)

 

HOU:

Mean runs scored: 5 (8 gms from 4)

Mean runs allowed: 4 (9 gms from 3 & 9 gms from 5)

 

NYY:

Mean runs scored: 5 (4 games from being 4)

Mean runs allowed: 4 (9 games from 5 & 12 from 3)

 

Not much of a difference.

 

Pythagorean Standings (differential from actual):

 

97-51 CLE (-6)

90-57 NYY (-9)

87-60 HOU (+2)

85-62 BOS (+1)

74-73 MN (+3)

 

This seems to indicate we're winning more than we "deserve" and the Guardians and Yankees are actually even better than what their record indicates.

 

 

 

 

[cp176]

We've had 39 comeback wins and 10 walk-off wins.

 

We've blown 24 leads and have lost 4 times on walk-offs.

 

Our mean runs scored is 4.

If we score 5+ runs in our next 3 games, our mean runs scored would be 5.

 

Our mean runs allowed is also 4.

If we allow 3 runs or less in our next 4 games, it would be 3.

 

In other words, we are very close to having means of 5 to 3.

 

How does this compare to Cleveland, Houston and NYY?

 

CLE:

Mean runs scored: also 4 (also 3 games from being 5)

Mean runs allowed: 3 (10 gms from 4 & 14 from 2)

 

HOU:

Mean runs scored: 5 (8 gms from 4)

Mean runs allowed: 4 (9 gms from 3 & 9 gms from 5)

 

NYY:

Mean runs scored: 5 (4 games from being 4)

Mean runs allowed: 4 (9 games from 5 & 12 from 3)

 

Not much of a difference.

 

Pythagorean Standings (differential from actual):

 

97-51 CLE (-6)

90-57 NYY (-9)

87-60 HOU (+2)

85-62 BOS (+1)

74-73 MN (+3)

 

This seems to indicate we're winning more than we "deserve" and the Guardians and Yankees are actually even better than what their record indicates.

 

 

 

 

 

Like I have said many times, I'm not a big Farrell fan but this team (his team) does not quit. I do not think that our everyday players are anything special. I'm sure that someone can show the stats that prove otherwise but I honestly believe that I have seen many Red Sox teams with more talent than we have here. They just don't quit. If I were a playoff team, they would be one of the teams that I really would not look forward to playing not so much because of their talent but because they won't go away. I really like teams like this.

[moonslav59]

Like I have said many times, I'm not a big Farrell fan but this team (his team) does not quit. I do not think that our everyday players are anything special. I'm sure that someone can show the stats that prove otherwise but I honestly believe that I have seen many Red Sox teams with more talent than we have here. They just don't quit. If I were a playoff team, they would be one of the teams that I really would not look forward to playing not so much because of their talent but because they won't go away. I really like teams like this.

 

Well said, cp.

 

I'm still very optimistic about this team despite watching Houston, LA and Cleveland totally dominate through stretches of this year.

 

We've had some ups and downs, but I think we've kept my dream alive this season.