A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[MADSTORK]

Me 2.

 

 

I would take Trout over Stanton...

[moonslav59]

Terrific, thanks.

 

I use WAR myself, but am always suspicious because I don't know where the ratings come from. Also, some of those numbers above are low simply because of the number of games played. Thus to me Nunez's 2.0 is probably 3.0. I'm delighted Betts is so high, surely because of his defense. JBJ a little lower than I expected and certainly closer to Bogie than I would put him. And no way I put Bogie higher than Beni.

 

The WAR ratings are for the season to date, so cannot of course reflect anyone who seems to have really turned things around--see especially Fister. I think Devers's defense hurts his overall WAR more than it should--plus of course the much shorter season.

 

If there were a moonslav version of WAR, I probably would go with that instead.

 

The best thing about those WAR ratings is that they generally rate our pitchers higher than our lineup players. Very credible to me.

 

I used the WAR numbers from fangraphs. Some where on their site, they explain how they get their numbers .

 

The Nunez numbers include his production from SF.

 

Yes, WAR is greatly affected by the size of the sample size. I wish they would post a WAR per 150 game number next to their overall WAR.

 

Second half WAR numbers may help show player trends to your liking...

 

(80+ PAs with Sox only numbers)

1.0 Nunez

0.9 Vaz

0.8 Devers

0.7 Beni

0.6 Betts

0.4 Pedey

0.1 JBJ

0.0 Leon

-0.1 Bogey & Moreland

-0.5 HRam

-0.7 Holt

 

2.2 Sale

1.2 Fister

0.9 Pom & Erod

0.7 Kimbrel

0.4 Workman & Price

0.3 Abad & Barnes

0.2 Kelly, Maddox, Jonson, Velazquez

0.1 Taylor, Hembree, Smith

0.0 Porcello, Moreland, Elias

-0.1 Martin

-0.2 Reed

 

 

Edited September 7, 2017 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

That's all I'm saying. 8 out of 8 and 9 of our top 10 is not something to just shrug off. If 6 out of 8 declined, it would be understandable.

 

Then, when you see 4 of the 8 are down by more than .135 and all 8 are by more than .045, it becomes astonishing, to me anyways.

 

 

I'm with you.

[moonslav59]

What interesting about our second half WAR numbers is this...

 

Our top 4 everyday player WAR guys (Nunez, Vaz, Devers and Beni) were not with the Sox all last year. 3 were added to the 25 man roster after July 2016.

 

2 of our top 6 second half WAR pitchers were not playing for the Sox last year (Fister and Workman).

 

That makes 6 of our top 12 second half OPS not being on the 25 man roster before July 2016.

 

[Kimmi]

I am pessimistic that this happens.

 

I am actually starting to believe that Price will make it back this season. If he can't get stretched out enough to start, he could at least help us out the pen. He could be one our new found piggy back pitchers.

[Kimmi]

I really don't want to see Hanley get enough PA's to qualify for 2019. With his age and injury history having to take his big salary for 2 more years would be a burden that would be hard for the club to carry. If we could be sure Hanley was only going to be with us for one more year, we could afford to take a slightly older guy with a big bat and know we would also be able to get another expensive player the following year.

 

Keeping Nunez should be a priority although it would have to be in the supersub role. With Pedey's age he could easily find a role there or as DH to keep Hanley rested (ahem). Holt has been a good player for us but there are other and better options for us now.

 

Hosmer is one guy to consider although not necessarily optimum. I do think we need to avoid paying big bucks to our DH in future, so we need to pick up a good defensive player with a big bat.

 

How Hanley plays next year will dictate whether he gets enough PAs to qualify. If he's good enough to where the FO thinks he can help us in 2019, he'll get a lot of playing time. If he's meh, he won't get the playing time, and rightly so. Unless we have no one better to take those at bats.

 

I'm thinking that Nunez is probably going to cost more than we would want to pay for a supersub.

[a700hitter]

How Hanley plays next year will dictate whether he gets enough PAs to qualify. If he's good enough to where the FO thinks he can help us in 2019, he'll get a lot of playing time. If he's meh, he won't get the playing time, and rightly so. Unless we have no one better to take those at bats.

 

I'm thinking that Nunez is probably going to cost more than we would want to pay for a supersub.

Nunez is an everyday player -- not a supersub. He's versatile, but he should play everyday.

[Kimmi]

Don't know if this was Posted, but Mookie just turned down a close to 100 Million dollar extension, for 5 years. Sean McAdam just wrote it.

 

I think if the Sox went a little higher on that offer in both years and dollars, along the lines of what Bellhorn suggested, Mookie might bite. I don't think it would necessarily take 10 years.

[Kimmi]

I would trade Betts, Xander and E Rod for Stanton.

 

And pay his salary on top of that? No thank you.

[Kimmi]

That doesn't always mean what it looks like.

 

Nobody claimed Manny either, yet years later when he was imploding mentally and everyone knew we were trying to dump him, we got jason bay for him.

 

Well, Theo is a freaking genius.

 

That said, at the time that nobody claimed Manny, he still had a lot of money remaining on his contract. Nobody claimed him because they didn't want to get 'stuck' with that contract.

[oldtimer]

My guess is that while GMs value what you did the last year, they look beyond just one time frame of data.

 

I agree on the idea that DD will be looking for a big splash power hitter this winter, and I'm not talking the 15-25 HR power of Hosmer or Cozart.

 

I'd be lobbying for JD Martinez, if we could play him someplace other than DH.

 

Stanton or Votto seem like the obvious choices, but both get paid a lot, and paying money plus giving up several top young players is usually something I am against.

 

I loved the Sale trade, because it was just prospects. His contract was a bargain.

 

I'm not saying I'm against trading for Stanton or Votto, but I'd like to see the offer before agreeing on it.

 

I might go with...

 

Bogey

Groome

Chavis or Ockimey

Beeks or Shawaryn

(If we could get them to take HRam off our hands as a salary offset, I'd add other prospects like Dalbec & Lakins

 

I too am for getting a big bat and possibly also improving by getting a better player to replace someone that is good but not very good. I do think we have to maintain a balance up and down the lineup and not put all of the emphasis on one player. So who do we part company with and who do we keep as a core group? In my view, we would be well to keep our outfield together for its speed, defensive ability and still potential to improve offensively. As far as catcher is concerned, I am not wowed by either of our guys but think they do a serviceable job for us. That leaves the infield and DH as places where we could get that big bat and also probably also make an additional change to shore up our positions. We really need to do that on a value basis and we shouldn't pay any of these guys over their real value in either salary or time commitment, realizing BB is a competitive business and we still need to pay competitive amounts.

 

I do think we should keep Devers and either play him at 3rd or move him to first depending what is best for the club. I also think we have Pedey under contract and need Nunez to come back as a super sub if we can make that happen. Beyond that I see opportunities with first base, DH and shortstop. I don't recommend giving away the store in prospects to get a better bat and anyone we sign as a free agent or trade for needs to be able to hold down a position first and be a DH second. Bogey is still a young player and has more value just due to the years left in his career. Based on his level of play, I would be satisfied if we could either trade him and work to get a significantly better player or stand pat. Moreland has been pretty good for us but is the obvious choice to be replaced by a player with a superior bat and decent defense. Good luck finding that player. I too would think trading Hanley away, even if we had to eat some of the contract, would be in our interest. We should be able to replace him and get equally good numbers at a far better value, but who would want him?

 

Our utility players would include Nunez but we should be looking for a Young, Holt replacement. We have Lin, Hernandez, Swihart and Travis available and still others may emerge in the minors. Chavis may come along and be available next season. I look for speed, defensive ability, flexability in positions played and at least a contributor offensively.

 

Pitching is a separate story and I won't comment on that here.

[Kimmi]

I don't like our offensive make up. All of you complain about lack of power yet you don't want to do anything about it. You take drastic steps. Just as we did with Price, Pom and Sale on starters and Kimbrel as a closer.

 

Quit wasting time on fringe power hitters. Votto and Stanton are you power hitters. We are resetting the penalty rate for 2018.

 

Make an offer they can't refuse. Mark my word. DD will go big this winter. Move past Betts. Why in the hell would you give him $100M after the season he just had? See what his arbitration value comes in at.

 

Maybe Boston bowling alleys are inadequate.

 

Yup, dudes dig the long ball!

[Kimmi]

Could it be he wants more years too?

 

I actually agree with those who said that is seems like a bit of a lowball offer, in both dollars and years.

[Kimmi]

I would take Trout over Stanton...

 

Absolutely.

[moonslav59]

How Hanley plays next year will dictate whether he gets enough PAs to qualify. If he's good enough to where the FO thinks he can help us in 2019, he'll get a lot of playing time. If he's meh, he won't get the playing time, and rightly so. Unless we have no one better to take those at bats.

 

A lot depends on who we pick up. If it's just a Moreland type, I doubt he and Travis will steal enough PAs from HRam to disallow the vesting option, unless we strategically make sure he doesn't by playing worse players.

 

If we acquire a big slugger 1Bman and maybe Nunez, I think we can squeeze HRam out of his PAs legitimately.

 

[moonslav59]

Well, Theo is a freaking genius.

 

That said, at the time that nobody claimed Manny, he still had a lot of money remaining on his contract. Nobody claimed him because they didn't want to get 'stuck' with that contract.

 

I disagree. I think teams often don't put in a claim on a player they know will be pulled back, unless a trade offer is made.

[Kimmi]

A lot depends on who we pick up. If it's just a Moreland type, I doubt he and Travis will steal enough PAs from HRam to disallow the vesting option, unless we strategically make sure he doesn't by playing worse players.

 

If we acquire a big slugger 1Bman and maybe Nunez, I think we can squeeze HRam out of his PAs legitimately.

 

 

Makes sense. Of course, if Hanley's hitting like we hoped he would this year, no one is going to squeeze him out.

[Kimmi]

I disagree. I think teams often don't put in a claim on a player they know will be pulled back, unless a trade offer is made.

 

I still disagree because they have nothing to lose by putting in a claim, unless they don't want to take the contract to begin with. Is there a limit to the number of players a team can claim?

[Kimmi]

Updated boneheaded baserunning stats:

 

Team UBR (extra base runs) = +4.7

 

Team stolen base runs = +3.5

 

Contrary to popular belief, it ain't all bad.

[mvp 78]

Well, Theo is a freaking genius.

 

That said, at the time that nobody claimed Manny, he still had a lot of money remaining on his contract. Nobody claimed him because they didn't want to get 'stuck' with that contract.

 

I think the Dodgers were happy with their return.

[S5Dewey]

I am actually starting to believe that Price will make it back this season. If he can't get stretched out enough to start, he could at least help us out the pen. He could be one our new found piggy back pitchers.

 

There's been speculation from time to time that the Sox and/or NESN reads the forums and gleans ideas from them. That's not to say that they use what they see here but they may at least use the forums to get a different perspective and possibly use bits and pieces of what they see here.

 

If the Sox start piggy-backing pitchers I'm going to begin to think that they're listening to us!

[Northern Star]

Thanks for laying down for the Yankees, Orioles.

[moonslav59]

Makes sense. Of course, if Hanley's hitting like we hoped he would this year, no one is going to squeeze him out.

 

Even if he hits well next year, I don't want him back in 2019.

 

I remember saying before last year that even if HRam hit .900 in 2016, we should trade him. I wish I stuck to my guns, and the Sox dumped him last winter.

 

If we go with Moreland and Travis next year, HRam will and should get the PAs needed to vest- baring injury.

[moonslav59]

Updated boneheaded baserunning stats:

 

Team UBR (extra base runs) = +4.7

 

Team stolen base runs = +3.5

 

Contrary to popular belief, it ain't all bad.

 

I've never said base-running has been a weakness of this team, and none of these numbers capture how many bonehead plays we've made on the basepaths and playing field on defense.

 

Taking an extra base and stealing bases is separate from running into out on account of a mental lapse. If those numebrs somehow account for the mistakes, then I wonder what they'd loom like with just a normal amount of boneheadedness.

[Kimmi]

Even if he hits well next year, I don't want him back in 2019.

 

I remember saying before last year that even if HRam hit .900 in 2016, we should trade him. I wish I stuck to my guns, and the Sox dumped him last winter.

 

If we go with Moreland and Travis next year, HRam will and should get the PAs needed to vest- baring injury.

 

I'm in the minority, but I like Hanley. Personally, I hope he he hits next year and in 2019 with the Red Sox.

[Kimmi]

I've never said base-running has been a weakness of this team, and none of these numbers capture how many bonehead plays we've made on the basepaths and playing field on defense.

 

Taking an extra base and stealing bases is separate from running into out on account of a mental lapse. If those numebrs somehow account for the mistakes, then I wonder what they'd loom like with just a normal amount of boneheadedness.

 

Yes, the numbers account for the mistakes and all of the OOBs.

 

I agree that there are some bad baserunning blunders. I just disagree with the idea that the baserunning blunders have cost us games, not that that excuses the blunders.

 

That said, while there are clear boneheaded outs, I also think that some of the outs that some consider to be boneheaded really aren't boneheaded at all. Rather they are aggressive baserunning plays that didn't work out.

[Larry Cook]

I'm in the minority, but I like Hanley. Personally, I hope he he hits next year and in 2019 with the Red Sox.

 

He's played all year with a bad shoulder. If he was healthy all year, would the results be better? We will never know.

[Kimmi]

He's played all year with a bad shoulder. If he was healthy all year, would the results be better? We will never know.

 

Yup, it's hard to know. It's also hard to know whether he can ever get fully healthy again. I'm pulling for him though.

[moonslav59]

Yes, the numbers account for the mistakes and all of the OOBs.

 

I agree that there are some bad baserunning blunders. I just disagree with the idea that the baserunning blunders have cost us games, not that that excuses the blunders.

 

That said, while there are clear boneheaded outs, I also think that some of the outs that some consider to be boneheaded really aren't boneheaded at all. Rather they are aggressive baserunning plays that didn't work out.

 

I'm not talking about aggressiveness or even slight overaggressieness. I'm talking forgetting about how many outs there are, not running a 1/3 of the way to the next base on pop flies to the OF, running to 3B with a ball hit to the IF in front of you.

 

I'm not talking about 3-4 blunders all year. I'm sure there are at least 15. Sure, some had nothing to do with a win or loss, but I seriously doubt no games have been lost by a running mistake.

 

Defensive blunders have certainly led to several losses. hard to prove, since the "what if" argument kills any conjecture, but the sheer magnitude of the mental mistakes we've made on defense have cost us more than just one game. My guess is 3-6. Add 1 to 3 for running blunders, and I'm sure we've lost at least 4 games to mental mistakes.

 

And no, I haven't documented every tiny mental blunder, but I feel like I'm being conservative with the number 4.

 

[moonslav59]

The Sox are now tied with the Dodgers in Pitching WAR at 21.6. (The Guardians are 1st at an amazing 26.1.)

 

Here are some other numbers:

 

ERA-

77 CLE

78 AZ

80 LAD

83 BOS

86 NYY

87 WSH

 

SIERA

3.52 CLE

3.65 LAD

3.75 HOU

3.79 BOS

3.81 NYY

3.90 AZ

 

K/BB

3.74 CLE

3.51 LAD

3.43 BOS

3.05 NYY

3.02 HOU

 

How about individual SPERs'?

 

170 pitchers have 60+ SP'er IP. Here's how some teams look:

ERA- Rank

 

BOS

6. Sale 63

22. Pom 74

30. Fister 79

34. Price 81

70. ERod 96

LAD

1. Kershaw 47

8. Wood 65

50. Hill 89

52. Ryu 90

55. Darvish 91

60. McCarthy 93

80. Maeda 99

 

CLE

3. Kluber 57

15. Clevinger 70

27. Carrasco 78

73 Bauer 98