A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[Kimmi]

Pedey & Barnes activated. Swihart, Travis, Elias & Maddox called up. So far, Brentz has not been added to the 40 man.

 

I am glad to see Swihart called up.

[Kimmi]

Also, if Elias is pitching, it's time to turn off the game. That's the white flag.

 

Elias has been called up to save his last option, which the Sox won't lose now because he was called back up within 20 days (or something like that).

[Kimmi]

One bad thing about the expanded rosters is the 157 pitching changes that we have to deal with.

[moonslav59]

He could have put a weak hitting pitcher in the clean up spot all season and only cost the team about 15 (or was it 18?) runs.

 

We may have scored more!

 

LOL!

[moonslav59]

I know it's crunch time 2017, but here's a look at some winter roster decisions to be made:

 

45

 

40 Man Roster plus 5 players on 60 Day DL (R Ross, M Hernandez, C Smith, Thornburg & Rutledge):

http://soxprospects.com/40man.htm

 

Free Agents to be (minus 7):

Nunez

Reed

Young

Moreland

Fister

Abad

Boyer

 

That leaves 38

 

Rule 5: The following players will be eligible for the December 2017 Rule 5 Draft if they are not added to the 40-man roster by November 20, 2017:

(soxprospects.com current ranking)

 

Victor Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Trey Ball (#38), Jalen Beeks #9, Danny Bethea, Jordan Betts, Ty Buttrey (#31), Rusney Castillo, Harrison Cooney, Jake Cosart (#42), Enmanuel De Jesus, Jhonathan Diaz, Willis Figueroa, Pat Goetze, Daniel Gonzalez, Justin Haley (#32), Juan Hernandez, Bryan Hudson, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Isaias Lucena, Danny Mars (#33), Algenis Martinez, Kevin McAvoy, Daniel McGrath, Ritzi Mendoza, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Samuel Miranda, Joseph Monge, Jhon Nunez, Yankory Pimentel, Jordan Procyshen, Hildemaro Requena, Jeremy Rivera, Jake Romanski, Chandler Shepherd (#29), Josh Smith, Teddy Stankiewicz (#57), Cole Sturgeon, Aneury Tavarez, Carlos Tovar, Jantzen Witte

 

Minor League Free Agents: The following players will become minor league free agents in November 2017 unless they are added to the 40-man roster or re-signed.

 

Jeremy Barfield, Brian Bogusevic, Bryce Brentz (#22), Dan Butler, Ryan Court, Jacob Dahlstrand, Matt Dominguez, Conrad Gregor, Shawn Haviland, Williams Jerez, Kyle Kendrick, Deiner Lopez, Heiker Meneses, Edgar Olmos, Mike Olt, Mitchell Osnowitz, Tim Roberson, Steve Selsky, Jose Sermo, Aneury Tavarez (#24), Herny Urrutia, Elih Villaneuva, Marcus Walden, Jordan Weems

 

I think Beeks is a sure bet add-on. That makes 39.

 

We probably add one of these guys to the 40 man roster: Brentz, Barfield, mars and Tavarez. That makes 40.

 

 

If we want to keep more or if any free agent signings will mean someone must go from the 40 man. Here's a list of possible trade candidates or even DFA candidates:

 

Player (options remaining as of right now)

H Owens (2 options remaining)

Rutledge (0 options remaining)

Hembree (0 options)

R Elias (1 option)

B Holt (needs permission to be demoted to AAA)

Marrero (1 option remaining)

H Velazquez (3)

T-W Lin (3)

M Hernandez (2)

 

 

[Nick]

I know that John F thinks Sox can't survive without Holt, we need to get rid of him. His ceiling is mediocrity. We can do better.

[moonslav59]

I know that John F thinks Sox can't survive without Holt, we need to get rid of him. His ceiling is mediocrity. We can do better.

 

DD just has to take JF's toy away and that will force JF to play others.

 

As long as we don't sign a DH only type player, I'm happy spreading the wealth to Marco H, Lin, Marrero and whoever we get as our next 4th OF'er. I'm also fine with us acquiring a very good clean-up hitter (1B) and then signing Nunez to take Holt's place as a jack of all (and no) trades. At least Nunez can hit. We may seek someone who can play LF better than Nunez or Holt. Maybe Lin can take that role.

 

I've always been high on Marco, but he hasn't proven jack.

 

[moonslav59]

29 year old, Jeremy Barfield hit his 27th tonight.

 

Brian Johnson: 6 IP 5 ER on 7 Hits (1 HR and two 2Bs)

[moonslav59]

For argument's sake only, let's assume we sign Nunez as our utility-supersub next year and have to choose just one player from this list of players to add to the roster. Let's not get into how much money or years- just pick the choice you like best:

 

A. Hosmer (1B)

B. L Duda (DH/1B)

C. L Morrison (1B)

D. M Moreland (1B)

E. Y Alonso (DH/1B)

F. M Moustakas (Devers to 1B)

G. Z Cozart (Bogey to 3B/Devers to 1B)

H. Jay Bruce (DH/4th OF'er)

I. J Upton (DH/4th OF'er)

J. JD Martinez (DH/4th OF'er)

K. Jake Arrieta (SP)

L. Yu Darvish

M. Lance Lynn (SP)

N. Alex Cobb (SP)

 

[Behindenemylines]

For argument's sake only, let's assume we sign Nunez as our utility-supersub next year and have to choose just one player from this list of players to add to the roster. Let's not get into how much money or years- just pick the choice you like best:

 

A. Hosmer (1B)

B. L Duda (DH/1B)

C. L Morrison (1B)

D. M Moreland (1B)

E. Y Alonso (DH/1B)

F. M Moustakas (Devers to 1B)

G. Z Cozart (Bogey to 3B/Devers to 1B)

H. Jay Bruce (DH/4th OF'er)

I. J Upton (DH/4th OF'er)

J. JD Martinez (DH/4th OF'er)

K. Jake Arrieta (SP)

L. Yu Darvish

M. Lance Lynn (SP)

N. Alex Cobb (SP)

 

A lot depends on the plan for Hanley. If Hanley can't be your every day first basemen that eliminates many from that list. It would force DD to get a First basemen. Are struggles against left handlers says it should be a right handed bat with some power. It would be nice if they could catch lightning in the bottle with Brentz, but I don't know if he is ever going to hit above the AAA level. Travis would be another cheap option, But Sox need a 1B with power. Travis hasn't show that.

[oldtimer]

A lot depends on the plan for Hanley. If Hanley can't be your every day first basemen that eliminates many from that list. It would force DD to get a First basemen. Are struggles against left handlers says it should be a right handed bat with some power. It would be nice if they could catch lightning in the bottle with Brentz, but I don't know if he is ever going to hit above the AAA level. Travis would be another cheap option, But Sox need a 1B with power. Travis hasn't show that.

 

Better plan on Hanley as primarily DH next year and if we can sign Nunez, our supersub. With Price still in a long term contract and Wright still a possibility and with two relievers coming back to bolster that area, I think we need a field player. With Moreland in free agency, we will need either to resign him or get another quality player there. Travis haven't shown enough as yet but it might be possible to move Devers there. If we think outside the box about SS, then we can trade to fill that position. You mention Cozart. Have to decide if Bogey is a long term player here or not. We could leave Devers at 3rd, sign a SS and a 1st baseman.

 

But lets talk about this end of season and the PO's. The AAA season will soon be over and we will probably see additional faces appear. Will Smith, Lin and Marrero be the new ones?

[jacksonianmarch]

The AFL guys are Chavis and two minor league washouts? Wow, your system is thin

[moonslav59]

A lot depends on the plan for Hanley. If Hanley can't be your every day first basemen that eliminates many from that list. It would force DD to get a First basemen. Are struggles against left handlers says it should be a right handed bat with some power. It would be nice if they could catch lightning in the bottle with Brentz, but I don't know if he is ever going to hit above the AAA level. Travis would be another cheap option, But Sox need a 1B with power. Travis hasn't show that.

 

You didn't answer my question.

 

I seriously doubt we go into 2018 praying one from this bunch rises to the top:

 

Brentz

Travis

Barfield

Swihart

Others

 

I also doubt we settle on Moreland or Morrison.

 

I think DD has to see the big gap in the middle of our line-up. The gap is actually 2-3 slots, so IMO, he has to get one big bopper, and I mean big.

 

I don't see much on the list, so he may go trade, but I doubt he goes OF. That would mean one of our OF'ers sits at NL parks.

 

Of the list, my choices would be...

 

1) Moustakas (move Devers to 1B over the winter)

2) Duda (DH/1B

3) Cozart (Trade Bogey for a 1Bman)

4) Lynn

5) Hosmer

 

[moonslav59]

The AFL guys are Chavis and two minor league washouts? Wow, your system is thin

 

I agree we are thin, but teams don't always send their best players to the AFL. They send players needing to work on something or needing extra playing time in general.

[oldtimer]

You didn't answer my question.

 

I seriously doubt we go into 2018 praying one from this bunch rises to the top:

 

Brentz

Travis

Barfield

Swihart

Others

 

I also doubt we settle on Moreland or Morrison.

 

I think DD has to see the big gap in the middle of our line-up. The gap is actually 2-3 slots, so IMO, he has to get one big bopper, and I mean big.

 

I don't see much on the list, so he may go trade, but I doubt he goes OF. That would mean one of our OF'ers sits at NL parks.

 

Of the list, my choices would be...

 

1) Moustakas (move Devers to 1B over the winter)

2) Duda (DH/1B

3) Cozart (Trade Bogey for a 1Bman)

4) Lynn

5) Hosmer

 

 

Will we get Otani, and if we do will he brought through the system quickly? He wants to both pitch and play in the field so he can hit. Maybe he could be the 1st baseman we need.

[Nick]

If Xander is not good enough as a mediocre defending light hitting SS, I sure as hell don't want him playing 3B.

 

I would prefer us get a legit, power bat at 1B and let Devers settle in at 3B.

 

What would take for Reds to part with Votto? You said money doesn't matter. He would be a perfect fit for Red Sox.

 

Would Beni and couple of other pieces do it? (I only bring him up because of his Cincy connection)

[moonslav59]

Will we get Otani, and if we do will he brought through the system quickly? He wants to both pitch and play in the field so he can hit. Maybe he could be the 1st baseman we need.

 

I heard we were making a strong push for him.

[jacksonianmarch]

I dont think you guys have the room to offer him anything significant. There's a hard cap now after the Moncada debacle. We might be able to offer him a couple mil. I'm sure other teams can beat that. We shall see

[Station 13]

I dont think you guys have the room to offer him anything significant. There's a hard cap now after the Moncada debacle. We might be able to offer him a couple mil. I'm sure other teams can beat that. We shall see

 

It would be easier for him to wait out 2 year then fight over a million.

 

He can't get tops dollars now. If he signs with somebody now it won't be about money.

[moonslav59]

I dont think you guys have the room to offer him anything significant. There's a hard cap now after the Moncada debacle. We might be able to offer him a couple mil. I'm sure other teams can beat that. We shall see

 

"Moncada debacle?"

[moonslav59]

Jeremy Barfiled called up to Pawtucket, goes 4 for 5 with an HR- his 28th in the minors this year.

 

He's not even ranked on soxprospects.com.

 

He's 29 and will be a minor league FA if not added to the 40 man or re-signed.

[jacksonianmarch]

"Moncada debacle?"

 

MLB doesn't want 30 mil penalties for signings. The hard cap might as well be called the Moncada rule

[moonslav59]

MLB doesn't want 30 mil penalties for signings. The hard cap might as well be called the Moncada rule

 

I don't see the Moncada signing as being much different than Dice-K.

 

Yes, the rules have changed, but the Dodgers sure haven't noticed.

 

(I see the Yanks and Sox have been building up the Int'l FA signing pool, and we all know why.)

[Maxbialystock]

Back to Bogaerts for a moment, please. Yesterday he missed his second straight game. Worse for him, Lin went in at 2b and Nunez stayed at SS. In other words, Farrell wants him to get comfortable there.

 

To me that is a clear signal that, if Pedroia can play regularly (if not every single day), Bogaerts could be closed out at 3b and SS for the rest of the season. Farrell wants to keep Devers, Nunez, and Pedroia's bats in the lineup as much as possible, given that hitting is our biggest problem in a heated pennant race in its final month, and will use lefty bat Lin, with his good defense, to fill in now and then. That could well be an overstatement, but I think it points toward the reality of Bogaerts situation today.

 

In order, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017, Bogaerts four full season WAR's in Boston are: 0.2, 4.6, 3.7, and 1.3.

[oldtimer]

Back to Bogaerts for a moment, please. Yesterday he missed his second straight game. Worse for him, Lin went in at 2b and Nunez stayed at SS. In other words, Farrell wants him to get comfortable there.

 

To me that is a clear signal that, if Pedroia can play regularly (if not every single day), Bogaerts could be closed out at 3b and SS for the rest of the season. Farrell wants to keep Devers, Nunez, and Pedroia's bats in the lineup as much as possible, given that hitting is our biggest problem in a heated pennant race in its final month, and will use lefty bat Lin, with his good defense, to fill in now and then. That could well be an overstatement, but I think it points toward the reality of Bogaerts situation today.

 

In order, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017, Bogaerts four full season WAR's in Boston are: 0.2, 4.6, 3.7, and 1.3.

 

I tend to agree with you since I think Bogey needs to make fundamental changes, something very hard to do on the fly. On the other hand, Farrell seems to be saying he will try Bogaerts back in the lineup in a couple of days. Hard to expect any change without something happening to Bogaerts with his swing mechanics and plate approach. Hasn't happened in two months so it is hard to believe it can happen with a couple of days of sitting out. Maybe Farrell knows something that makes a difference in the equations, but our primary goal needs to be to win the pennant.

[Kimmi]

I tend to agree with you since I think Bogey needs to make fundamental changes, something very hard to do on the fly. On the other hand, Farrell seems to be saying he will try Bogaerts back in the lineup in a couple of days. Hard to expect any change without something happening to Bogaerts with his swing mechanics and plate approach. Hasn't happened in two months so it is hard to believe it can happen with a couple of days of sitting out. Maybe Farrell knows something that makes a difference in the equations, but our primary goal needs to be to win the pennant.

 

Having a couple of days off seemed to have worked for Beni. I'm not saying it will work for Bogaerts, but sometimes those prolonged slumps just become mentally draining. A few days off could help.

 

That said, I truly believe that Bogaerts is still dealing with the hand injury. If that's the case, he probably won't be right for the rest of the year.

[moonslav59]

Bogey has certainly not been the Bogey of 2015-2016 and early 2017.

 

Injury? Mechanics? Something is wrong.

 

I'm hopeful someone figures it out soon, and we can have the old Bogey come playoff time.

 

I do think a rest can help. Earlier, I suggested a 10 day DL trip, but then Pedey went down. I still think he needs more than 2 days though.

[Nick]

Xander had stated on record that his hand is bothering him. He made the comment after he hit a rare pulled homer recently.

[moonslav59]

I really expected our second half splits to improve over the first half. Not only have we gotten worse, we've been much closer to .700 than .750.

 

1st half .759

2nd half .715

 

The players 2nd halves...

 

.905 Nunez (with Sox only)

.872 Vaz

.871 Devers

.814 Beni

 

(Who'd have thunk these would be our top 4?)

 

.789 Pedey

.740 Moreland

.727 HRam

 

.685 Young

.652 Betts

.623 JBJ

.615 Leon

 

.587 Bogey

 

.496 Davis (21 PAs)

.481 Holt

.345 Marrero (24)

 

On another note...

 

Our 5 slot is now our worst slot by OPS:

 

.658 5

.659 9

.708 7

.740 4

.759 1

.767 8

.773 6

.797 2

.814 3

[Maxbialystock]

I really expected our second half splits to improve over the first half. Not only have we gotten worse, we've been much closer to .700 than .750.

 

1st half .759

2nd half .715

 

The players 2nd halves...

 

.905 Nunez (with Sox only)

.872 Vaz

.871 Devers

.814 Beni

 

(Who'd have thunk these would be our top 4?)

 

.789 Pedey

.740 Moreland

.727 HRam

 

.685 Young

.652 Betts

.623 JBJ

.615 Leon

 

.587 Bogey

 

.496 Davis (21 PAs)

.481 Holt

.345 Marrero (24)

 

On another note...

 

Our 5 slot is now our worst slot by OPS:

 

.658 5

.659 9

.708 7

.740 4

.759 1

.767 8

.773 6

.797 2

.814 3

 

Compelling. I am aghast.