A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[oldtimer]

I know this thread is about 2017, but with the rain out tonight, I got to thinking about 2018.

 

My guess is we will reset the luxury tax this year and will be able to go over next year by enough to sign one significant FA. Chances are it will be a FA that can hit, and with Moreland and Young hitting free agency, the position most likely to be filled, IMO, would be 1B or DH. The DH could be someone who can play OF or 1B.

 

(* has team option)

 

Here's the list of 1Bmen:

Yonder Alonso

Lucas Duda

Eric Hosmer

John Jaso

Adam Lind *

Mitch Moreland

Logan Morrison

Mike Napoli

Mark Reynolds

Carlos Santana

 

OF

Dustin Ackley

Nori Aoki

Jose Bautista *

Carlos Beltran

Michael Brantley *

Jay Bruce

Melky Cabrera

Lorenzo Cain

Josh Collmenter

Carl Crawford

Coco Crisp

Rajai Davis

Jarrod Dyson

Andre Ethier *

Craig Gentry

Carlos Gomez

Carlos Gonzalez

Curtis Granderson

Franklin Gutierrez

Matt Holliday

Austin Jackson

Jon Jay

Desmond Jennings

Hyun-Soo Kim

J.D. Martinez

Cameron Maybin

Andrew McCutchen *

Daniel Nava

Colby Rasmus

Ben Revere

Michael Saunders *

Seth Smith

Ichiro Suzuki

Justin Upton *

Melvin Upton

Jayson Werth

Chris B. Young

 

Big Names at Other Positions:

IF/OF Eduardo Nunez

SS Zach Cozart (move Bogey?)

3B Mike Moustakas (move Devers to 1B?)

C Alex Avila

C Jon Lucroy (having a bad year)

 

SP Yu Darvish

SP Alex Cobb

SP Johnny Cueto *

SP Lance Lynn

SP Michael Pineda

 

Possible in-house solutions:

1B (Moreland): Sam Travis, Michael Chavis (midseason)

DH (Moreland>HRam to 1B): Michael Chavis, Bryce Brentz

4th OF (Young): Bryce Brentz

UT IF (Nunez): Brock Holt, Marco Hernandez, T-W Lin, Deven Marrero

 

Ryon Healy is the A's 1st baseman. He is a 25 year old and a big guy with power potential and I would expect fairly cheap. Why wouldn't he be in consideration?

[S5Dewey]

A look at 2018's 40 man roster construction...

 

We have 47 men currently on the 40 man roster due to these 7 players on the 60 day DL:

Wright

Smith

Thornburg

Hernandez

Rutledge

Elias

Ross

 

Let's not count the 7 free agents to be:

Nunez

A Reed

Moreland

Young

Abad

Boyer

Fister

 

That puts us down to 40. Here are the Rule 5 players:

 

Victor Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Trey Ball, Jalen Beeks, Danny Bethea, Jordan Betts, Ty Buttrey, Rusney Castillo, Harrison Cooney, Jake Cosart, Enmanuel De Jesus, Jhonathan Diaz, Willis Figueroa, Pat Goetze, Daniel Gonzalez, Taylor Grover, Justin Haley, Juan Hernandez, Bryan Hudson, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Isaias Lucena, Danny Mars, Algenis Martinez, Kevin McAvoy, Daniel McGrath, Ritzi Mendoza, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Samuel Miranda, Joseph Monge, Jhon Nunez, Yankory Pimentel, Jordan Procyshen, Hildemaro Requena, Jeremy Rivera, Jake Romanski, Chandler Shepherd, Josh Smith, Teddy Stankiewicz, Cole Sturgeon, Aneury Tavarez, Carlos Tovar, Jantzen Witte

 

These players will be minor league free agents unless added to the 40 man roster or re-signed:

 

Jeremy Barfield, Brian Bogusevic, Bryce Brentz, Dan Butler, Ryan Court, Jacob Dahlstrand, Matt Dominguez, Shawn Haviland, Williams Jerez, Kyle Kendrick, Deiner Lopez, Heiker Meneses, Edgar Olmos, Mike Olt, Mitchell Osnowitz, Tim Roberson, Jose Sermo, Herny Urrutia, Elih Villaneuva, Marcus Walden, Jordan Weems

 

Out of the bolded players, maybe we'll try to keep/protect:

Beeks

Mars

Brentz

Barfield

and maybe

Olmos

Butler

Tavarez

 

(Note: Chavis is a Rule 5 candidate after 2018.)

 

That's 4-7 players. I think, at minimum, we'll sign at least one FA this winter- probably more like 2-3. That makes maybe 5- 8 spots needed to open up vis trades, DFAs or getting some to sign minor league deals.

 

So, who goes?

 

Here's my rankings (in order of who is most expendable):

 

1. Rutledge- Holt, Hernandez, Lin and Marrero makes Josh expendable.

2. Steve Selsky- despite the lack of ML ready OF depth, I think he goes.

3. Noe Ramirez- He's had his chances, and we have plenty of pen depth on the farm.

4. Henry Owens- Maybe he deserves to be first or second on this list.

5. Roenis Elias- How long can injuries be an excuse?

6. Hector Velazquez- Here's where the choices get a little tougher. (Trade bait?)

7. Kyle Martin, Ben Taylor or Austin Maddox (One could be traded.)

8. Holt, Hernandez, Lin or Marrero (One could be traded.)

9. Scott, Hembree or Workman (One could be traded)

10. Leon or Swihart (One could be traded.)

 

It's way to early to know we might do, but some tough and not so tough decisions will have to be made.

 

 

 

I kinda wish they'd do something with Butler. Either trade him or let him become a FA if necessary to give that guy a chance. It seems like he's been mired in Portland and then Pawtucket forever, watching Vaz and Swihart move past him and seeing the Sox sign Hannigan and Leon. He may be nothing more than a AAAA catcher or he may be able to start for some second division team but he'll be 31 in October and needs an opportunity to find out who he is.

 

Is he blocking someone else? Is our catching so shallow behind him that we have to keep him where he is for insurance?

[Maxbialystock]

It's posts like this that make me visit this board. I'll admit it' date=' as big of a sports fan as I am baseball is down my list a few spots. I can name every Redskins first round pick over the past 30 years. I know every Maryland basketball player who has ever played. But being from out of town and unable to watch most games I am a bit out of touch with the Sox and baseball in general when compared to my knowledge of the other sports. So I come here and appreciate the knowledge you folks have.[/quote']

 

Agree. moonslav gives us some amazing posts to chew on.

 

Right now the Sox again lead the AL in ERA (and quality starts) and are 5th in runs scored. Last year they were almost the exact opposite.

[S5Dewey]

Agree. moonslav gives us some amazing posts to chew on.

 

Right now the Sox again lead the AL in ERA (and quality starts) and are 5th in runs scored. Last year they were almost the exact opposite.

 

Hmmm... that's an interesting observation. And our record is almost exactly the same as it was last year at this time.

[Maxbialystock]

so.....

 

Some studies show putting your best hitter up second is best.

 

Does this mean Holt is our best hitter?

 

At the risk of sounding non PC, and going against my sworn oath as a teacher to not use the "R" word, JF is retarded.

 

Meh. Last night our two hottest hitters, Nunez and Devers, were 0 for 8. Throw in our next hottest Vazquez and the three of them were 0 for 10. But we still scored 4 runs, which 75% or more of the time is enough for us to win this year, and won. And Holt scored a run (thanks to an error when he hit to the opposite side of the field).

 

This is really far-fetched, but Farrell rarely uses his lefty bats back to back high in the order. By putting Holt in front of Beni, he gave Beni a chance to see what Shields was throwing against lefties.

 

The point is, it worked and worked on a night when nobody was hitting that much--just Beni and JBJ with those two huge 2-run dingers when we needed them.

 

 

 

Besides, it's just 1 game, and there can be no question he has been tinkering with the lineups ever since Devers and Nunez joined the squad.

[Maxbialystock]

Hmmm... that's an interesting observation. And our record is almost exactly the same as it was last year at this time.

 

In addition to which, last year the Sox got going with a nice 6 game win streak in August. However, they really won the division in September when the bullpen got very good.

[Kimmi]

so.....

 

Some studies show putting your best hitter up second is best.

 

Does this mean Holt is our best hitter?

 

At the risk of sounding non PC, and going against my sworn oath as a teacher to not use the "R" word, JF is retarded.

 

Managers are still extremely traditional in their line up constructions. The #2 spot is the most underrated and misused spot in the line up. There are signs that this has been changing, but change is slow.

[Kimmi]

4 runs on 5 hits, 2 2 run homers.

 

Value of Power.

 

It is nice to see some more home runs being hit.

[Kimmi]

Agree. moonslav gives us some amazing posts to chew on.

 

Right now the Sox again lead the AL in ERA (and quality starts) and are 5th in runs scored. Last year they were almost the exact opposite.

 

I would much rather have a strong pitching staff and a mediocre to good offense than the other way around. But I think this shows that you can win both ways.

[Kimmi]

Meh. Last night our two hottest hitters, Nunez and Devers, were 0 for 8. Throw in our next hottest Vazquez and the three of them were 0 for 10. But we still scored 4 runs, which 75% or more of the time is enough for us to win this year, and won. And Holt scored a run (thanks to an error when he hit to the opposite side of the field).

 

This is really far-fetched, but Farrell rarely uses his lefty bats back to back high in the order. By putting Holt in front of Beni, he gave Beni a chance to see what Shields was throwing against lefties.

 

The point is, it worked and worked on a night when nobody was hitting that much--just Beni and JBJ with those two huge 2-run dingers when we needed them.

 

Besides, it's just 1 game, and there can be no question he has been tinkering with the lineups ever since Devers and Nunez joined the squad.

 

Any way you slice it up, batting orders just don't matter that much.

[a700hitter]

Any way you slice it up, batting orders just don't matter that much.

And neither do managers.

[notin]

I kinda wish they'd do something with Butler. Either trade him or let him become a FA if necessary to give that guy a chance. It seems like he's been mired in Portland and then Pawtucket forever, watching Vaz and Swihart move past him and seeing the Sox sign Hannigan and Leon. He may be nothing more than a AAAA catcher or he may be able to start for some second division team but he'll be 31 in October and needs an opportunity to find out who he is.

 

Is he blocking someone else? Is our catching so shallow behind him that we have to keep him where he is for insurance?

 

Actually Butler keeps choosing to return.

 

The Sox traded him to Washington in 2015 and signed him as a minor league free agent after the season. Then they granted him free agency and re-signed him again after 2016...

[moonslav59]

I kinda wish they'd do something with Butler. Either trade him or let him become a FA if necessary to give that guy a chance. It seems like he's been mired in Portland and then Pawtucket forever, watching Vaz and Swihart move past him and seeing the Sox sign Hannigan and Leon. He may be nothing more than a AAAA catcher or he may be able to start for some second division team but he'll be 31 in October and needs an opportunity to find out who he is.

 

Is he blocking someone else? Is our catching so shallow behind him that we have to keep him where he is for insurance?

 

I think Butler was a minor league FA last year and chose to sign with us. I could be mistaken.

[Maxbialystock]

Any way you slice it up, batting orders just don't matter that much.

 

Actually, I like your stats and theories and have no complaints on general principles that Holt shouldn't bat 2d (if at all in my view). I was just saying that Farrell only did this once and it seems to have worked. I continue to be astounded at how much Holt gets to play and expect that to change when Pedroia returns.

 

For Holt fans, I don't mind agreeing that sometimes he does good stuff and he sure is versatile. I could be wrong, but I think he takes more pitches, including strikes, than any other Sox player.

[moonslav59]

Meh. Last night our two hottest hitters, Nunez and Devers, were 0 for 8. Throw in our next hottest Vazquez and the three of them were 0 for 10. But we still scored 4 runs, which 75% or more of the time is enough for us to win this year, and won. And Holt scored a run (thanks to an error when he hit to the opposite side of the field).

 

This is really far-fetched, but Farrell rarely uses his lefty bats back to back high in the order. By putting Holt in front of Beni, he gave Beni a chance to see what Shields was throwing against lefties.

 

The point is, it worked and worked on a night when nobody was hitting that much--just Beni and JBJ with those two huge 2-run dingers when we needed them.

 

Besides, it's just 1 game, and there can be no question he has been tinkering with the lineups ever since Devers and Nunez joined the squad.

 

It just seems very strange to decide to break your philosophy with a guy like Holt.

 

I think it was idiotic, and just because we won doesn't change a thing, IMO.

[S5Dewey]

I think Butler was a minor league FA last year and chose to sign with us. I could be mistaken.

 

Thanks. That's good news (for me). If he's happy in that role than I'm happy.

[moonslav59]

Managers are still extremely traditional in their line up constructions. The #2 spot is the most underrated and misused spot in the line up. There are signs that this has been changing, but change is slow.

 

The Sox are supposedly on the "cutting edge" of change.

 

I get how Holt's career OPS is almost identical vs RHPs as LHPs, but he comes very close to sucking vs both, so it makes absolutely no sense to me.

[notin]

I think Butler was a minor league FA last year and chose to sign with us. I could be mistaken.

 

At this point, Butler may have given up The Dream, or part of it, and keeps coming back because he figures to have a future coaching or managing in the Sox organization, or wherever his contacts wind up working....

[notin]

The Sox are supposedly on the "cutting edge" of change.

 

I get how Holt's career OPS is almost identical vs RHPs as LHPs, but he comes very close to sucking vs both, so it makes absolutely no sense to me.

 

By batting Holt second, Farrell kept all the other hitters in their accustomed spots. I wouldn't over think this one....

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox are supposedly on the "cutting edge" of change.

 

Really? I've never heard this or seen any evidence of it in how the team is managed.

[oldtimer]

Really? I've never heard this or seen any evidence of it in how the team is managed.

 

We have cutting edge base running. Young is hitting well today but got caught trying to stretch a double into a triple. To me, in scoring position with 2 outs is almost as good as being on third with two outs and miles better than being the third out.

[a700hitter]

We have cutting edge base running. Young is hitting well today but got caught trying to stretch a double into a triple. To me, in scoring position with 2 outs is almost as good as being on third with two outs and miles better than being the third out.

Cardinal Rule: Never make the first or the third outs at third base.

[Jasonbay44]

Cardinal Rule: Never make the first or the third outs at third base.

 

We definitely don't follow that rule. Its literally happening 2-3 times a week it seems.

[Bellhorn04]

We must be going for the alltime record for running into outs.

[moonslav59]

By batting Holt second, Farrell kept all the other hitters in their accustomed spots. I wouldn't over think this one....

 

Nobody has an accustomed spot on this team, except maybe Betts in the wrong slot at #1.

 

Holt up first today is a joke.

[moonslav59]

Really? I've never heard this or seen any evidence of it in how the team is managed.

 

We were one of the first teams to use sabermetrics, but we have seemed slow to move on some other "innovations" like high usage of defensive shifts.

[Kimmi]

Actually, I like your stats and theories and have no complaints on general principles that Holt shouldn't bat 2d (if at all in my view). I was just saying that Farrell only did this once and it seems to have worked. I continue to be astounded at how much Holt gets to play and expect that to change when Pedroia returns.

 

For Holt fans, I don't mind agreeing that sometimes he does good stuff and he sure is versatile. I could be wrong, but I think he takes more pitches, including strikes, than any other Sox player.

 

Thank you, I'm glad you like my stats and theories.

 

I don't like Holt batting 2nd, nor do I like him batting 1st, but in both cases, it worked out. If Holt had batted 9th both games, it probably would have also worked out.

 

As far as Holt taking more pitches than any other Sox player, he is 3rd behind Betts and Young, unless you want to count Travis and Kyle Kendrick.

 

However in terms of who sees the most pitches per PA, that would be Holt with 4.73, unless you want to count Pomeranz and Selsky. LOL

[Kimmi]

The Sox are supposedly on the "cutting edge" of change.

 

I get how Holt's career OPS is almost identical vs RHPs as LHPs, but he comes very close to sucking vs both, so it makes absolutely no sense to me.

 

I'm not sure that Farrell is on the cutting edge of change. He did give some hope when he defended batting Mookie in the lead off spot, but I don't think he's there yet.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure that Farrell is on the cutting edge of change. He did give some hope when he defended batting Mookie in the lead off spot, but I don't think he's there yet.

 

I meant the top brass more than the manager. Obviously, JF is not cutting edge on anything I can see.

[Kimmi]

I meant the top brass more than the manager. Obviously, JF is not cutting edge on anything I can see.

 

Well, the top brass not including Dombrowski.

 

Farrell is getting the memo from someone in the organization, for sure.