Red Sox Trade Deadline 2017 Thread

[harmony]

If the roles were reversed, would the Red Sox trade four-plus years of righthander Heath Hembree to the San Francisco Giants for first base prospect Chris Shaw?

 

Hembree and Strickland are same-sized 28-year-old righthanded relievers who come with four more years of team control. Since the start of the 2016 season Hembree has posted an ERA of 3.04 and an ERA+ of 147 in 81 appearances while Strickland has posted an ERA of 2.65 and an ERA+ of 153 in 111 appearances. Over that period Hembree has posted 0.9 fWAR while Strickland has posted 1.4 fWAR.

 

Edge to Strickland. The irony is that the Giants drafted Hembree while the Red Sox drafted Strickland.

 

Sam Travis and Chris Shaw are MLB Prospect Watch's eighth- and ninth-ranked first base prospects:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017/?list=1b

 

This year as 23-year-olds in Triple A, Travis has posted a wRC+ of 109 in 186 plate appearances while Shaw has posted a wRC+ of 119 in 195 plate appearances. Travis makes more contact while Shaw has more power.

 

The John Sickels scouting reports from last December:

5) Sam Travis, 1B, Grade B-: Age 23, second round pick in 2014 from Indiana University; hit .272/.332/.434 with six homers in 173 at-bats in Triple-A until season ended early with knee injury; scouts love the bat and they aren’t easily impressed with right-handed hitting first baseman; projects as .280ish hitter with moderate power; defensively limited to first base due to lack of speed or plus arm strength; should be ready soon if healthy. ETA late 2017.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/12/29/14119404/boston-red-sox-top-20-prospects-for-2017

9) Chris Shaw, 1B, Grade B-: Age 23, first round pick in 2015 from Boston College; hit .267/.335/.484 with 38 doubles, 21 homers, 48 walks, 125 strikeouts in 502 at-bats between High-A and Double-A; note large number of doubles to go with the homers; 60-65 raw power and he gets to it more often than not; strikeout rate is a caution flag but not horrible, though more walks would be nice; some observers feel his swing is too long for consistent MLB success but that’s not unanimous; good throwing arm but otherwise a mediocre defender with poor range which may limit his chances, at least for an NL team. ETA late 2018

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/12/20/14025292/san-francisco-giants-top-50-prospects-for-2017

Edited July 21, 2017 by harmony

[mvp 78]

Since the White Sox are in sell mode, I wouldn't mind paring away Abreu.

 

Sure, but they aren't moving him. He has more years of control left and is the only draw remaining in their clubhouse to put butts in the seats.

[BstHcpr]

Hunter Strickland is not a rental.

 

The San Francisco Giants would demand more than a fringy prospect for four-plus years of an established reliever.

 

FWIW, the Giants have one-time All Star first baseman Brandon Belt signed through 2021.

 

You are putting far too much long term value in relievers who are notoriously volatile commodities.

[Bellhorn04]

You are putting far too much long term value in relievers who are notoriously volatile commodities.

 

That overvaluing of relievers seems to be the way it is in baseball right now, as evidenced by moves like our trade for Thornburg.

[oldtimer]

That overvaluing of relievers seems to be the way it is in baseball right now, as evidenced by moves like our trade for Thornburg.

 

When we are in a tight game in the 8th, I certainly hope we have a quality reliever (person) to put in the game.

[BstHcpr]

That overvaluing of relievers seems to be the way it is in baseball right now, as evidenced by moves like our trade for Thornburg.

 

Shaw, Dubon, and Pennington was not considered to be a major haul at the time of the trade.

[OH FOY]

That's scary, if our evaluators see this. Pennington hurt most of year, losing Dubon who many have followed in his Minor League Career, saw he hit everywhere he's been. Shaw first year in the bigs not too bad. Dubon was SS with that great Salem team last year, and now he's all the way up to Triple AAA. The first 3 batters of that Salem team last year are no lower than Triple AAA. Edited July 21, 2017 by OH FOY!

[mvp 78]

Shaw, Dubon, and Pennington was not considered to be a major haul at the time of the trade.

 

Many people on here lamented the loss of Dubon as a throw in. Didn't seem to be necessary to include him. Trade should have just been Shaw plus one minor leaguer for Thornburg.

[harmony]

You are putting far too much long term value in relievers who are notoriously volatile commodities.

Some Red Sox fans place too much trade value in a fringy prospect such as 23-year-old Sam Travis, who failed to make Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list, John Sickel's Top 200 prospect list, MLB Prospect Watch's Top 100 prospect list and Baseball Prospectus' Top 101 prospect list:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects-updated-may-11/#jBgo67UVt7SXEGLj.97

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/2/13/14598358/top-200-mlb-prospects-for-2017-minor-league-ball

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#q6gMY15kpSV3sBXi.97

 

In January Travis reportedly landed at No. 98 on Keith Law's ESPN prospect list (which is hidden behind a pay wall).

[BstHcpr]

Some Red Sox fans place too much trade value in a fringy prospect such as 23-year-old Sam Travis, who failed to make Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list, John Sickel's Top 200 prospect list, MLB Prospect Watch's Top 100 prospect list and Baseball Prospectus' Top 101 prospect list:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects-updated-may-11/#jBgo67UVt7SXEGLj.97

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/2/13/14598358/top-200-mlb-prospects-for-2017-minor-league-ball

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#q6gMY15kpSV3sBXi.97

 

In January Travis reportedly landed at No. 98 on Keith Law's ESPN prospect list (which is hidden behind a pay wall).

 

Sam Travis and two other prospects is pretty similar to other trades involving middle relievers across MLB.

[moonslav59]

Strickland is having a down year (1.41 WHIP fuelded by a 5.0 BB/9 rate), but his overall career numbers are pretty good:

 

1.083 WHIP

 

8.9 K/9

 

2.98 FIP

 

[mvp 78]

Sam Travis and two other prospects is pretty similar to other trades involving middle relievers across MLB.

 

i.e. not worth it

[Station 13]

Strickland is having a down year (1.41 WHIP fuelded by a 5.0 BB/9 rate), but his overall career numbers are pretty good:

 

1.083 WHIP

 

8.9 K/9

 

2.98 FIP

 

His season is about as good as Hembree's.

[moonslav59]

His season is about as good as Hembree's.

 

His career is better, but I'd shy away from any RP'er in the midst of a poor season. His 5.0 BB/9 this year is scary.

[jacksonianmarch]

Travis is a victim of his position. He's a hitter but he doesn't project to have typical 1b power. Hence he'll get overlooked. He might have a fair amount of worth to Boston, but he isn't a headliner for anything significant

[moonslav59]

Travis is a victim of his position. He's a hitter but he doesn't project to have typical 1b power. Hence he'll get overlooked. He might have a fair amount of worth to Boston, but he isn't a headliner for anything significant

 

Depends on how much some other organization values him. You make a good point. I doubt many teams value low power 1Bmen in an age of increasing HRs. He also looks like he might end up being a platoon player as well, which further devalues him.

 

I think it might take Travis and one from Beeks or Lakins to get a decent rental RP'er- more if we want someone with another year or so of team control.

[OH FOY]

Travis is a victim of his position. He's a hitter but he doesn't project to have typical 1b power. Hence he'll get overlooked. He might have a fair amount of worth to Boston, but he isn't a headliner for anything significant

 

Good, this kid is a good hitter. He's still coming back from knee injury too. Last 2 years has only about 400 at bats. At 22 he would have been starting 1st baseman for the Pawsox. Injured most that season.

Edited July 21, 2017 by OH FOY!

[notin]

If the roles were reversed, would the Red Sox trade four-plus years of righthander Heath Hembree to the San Francisco Giants for first base prospect Chris Shaw?

 

Hembree and Strickland are same-sized 28-year-old righthanded relievers who come with four more years of team control. Since the start of the 2016 season Hembree has posted an ERA of 3.04 and an ERA+ of 147 in 81 appearances while Strickland has posted an ERA of 2.65 and an ERA+ of 153 in 111 appearances. Over that period Hembree has posted 0.9 fWAR while Strickland has posted 1.4 fWAR.

 

Edge to Strickland. The irony is that the Giants drafted Hembree while the Red Sox drafted Strickland.

 

Sam Travis and Chris Shaw are MLB Prospect Watch's eighth- and ninth-ranked first base prospects:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017/?list=1b

 

This year as 23-year-olds in Triple A, Travis has posted a wRC+ of 109 in 186 plate appearances while Shaw has posted a wRC+ of 119 in 195 plate appearances. Travis makes more contact while Shaw has more power.

 

The John Sickels scouting reports from last December:

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/12/29/14119404/boston-red-sox-top-20-prospects-for-2017

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/12/20/14025292/san-francisco-giants-top-50-prospects-for-2017

 

So this proposal is the Sox trade former Giant prospect Heath Hembree, who is the rough equivalent of Giants RHRP and former Sox prospect Hunter Strickland, for Giants prospect Chris Shaw to replace Sam Travis, which wouldn't be necessary if the Sox had just kept Travis Shaw?

 

I'm not confused...

[notin]

Many people on here lamented the loss of Dubon as a throw in. Didn't seem to be necessary to include him. Trade should have just been Shaw plus one minor leaguer for Thornburg.

 

The reality has become prospects aren't worth what they were worth a few years ago. Is David Phelps worth four minor leaguers?

[mvp 78]

The reality has become prospects aren't worth what they were worth a few years ago. Is David Phelps worth four minor leaguers?

 

Nope.

[notin]

They have eleven more days to make a move. We'll see.

 

We'll so far Dombrowski's mid-season moves this year have been to acquire his former Tigers' players like Fister and Peralta. Does this mean our 3b solution is going to be Brandon Inge?

[notin]

It must be that Luis Basabe is the next Dustin Pedroia. The 18th prospect in farm system for a rental reliever like Ziegler seems pretty standard.

 

 

 

You also have to bear in mind he was their emergency backup Luis Basabe and they still kept their main one...

[sk7326]

The reality has become prospects aren't worth what they were worth a few years ago. Is David Phelps worth four minor leaguers?

 

And minor leaguers aren't equal - he might have been worth 4 if none of them were major league-probable, or all guys with "extra guy, maybe" sort of view.

[OH FOY]

Travis and Schwarber were dynamite at Indiana, Travis only had a few HRs less than Schwarber. In about same amount of games, not buying he doesn't have Power.

[sk7326]

Travis and Schwarber were dynamite at Indiana, Travis only had a few HRs less than Schwarber. In about same amount of games, not buying he doesn't have Power.

 

Aluminum bat in a shaky conference ... have to lean on more than the numbers there. Travis swing seems more built for line drive than getting the backspin you'd want from a power hitter. Now every so often there is a Goldschmidt or Pedroia who just confound scouts - but I think Travis has the sort of swing which looks like 15 HR sort of thing, which is fine.

[harmony]

The reality has become prospects aren't worth what they were worth a few years ago. Is David Phelps worth four minor leaguers?

From FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan (a frequent critic of the Mariners):

The Mariners dealt some players they might not miss for a while. Perhaps none of them will ever make it. The Marlins see it as a package of four guys they can dream on. And the major-league piece is a greatly-improved reliever who might, just might, also be a greatly-improved starter, given the chance. Phelps isn’t the best player getting traded around this deadline. He is, though, one of the more interesting ones.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mariners-get-david-phelps-who-is-good/

[OH FOY]

Aluminum bat in a shaky conference ... have to lean on more than the numbers there. Travis swing seems more built for line drive than getting the backspin you'd want from a power hitter. Now every so often there is a Goldschmidt or Pedroia who just confound scouts - but I think Travis has the sort of swing which looks like 15 HR sort of thing, which is fine.

 

I remember when Schwarber got Drafted, he was projected to us at 27, Theo Drafted him way ahead of people thought. He's hitting pretty good bombs with Wooden bats, in the Majors. Travis is hitting for average right now, Schwarber is swinging for the fences.

Edited July 21, 2017 by OH FOY!

[sk7326]

I remember when Schwarber got Drafted, he was projected to us at 27, Theo Drafted him way ahead of people thought. He's hitting pretty good bombs with Wooden bats, in the Majors.

 

If he had more projectable swing, this would be evident

[OH FOY]

All I'm saying don't give up on Travis, he's always played against competition that was much older than him, plus he had bad knee injury. Power comes.

[BstHcpr]

We'll so far Dombrowski's mid-season moves this year have been to acquire his former Tigers' players like Fister and Peralta. Does this mean our 3b solution is going to be Brandon Inge?

 

Might be worth a shot