Hernanez vs Pablo

[NativeBostonian]

Sandoval was an awful signing. I thought that was evident from Day One.

 

My only hope is that he can turn it around this year and at least be a respectable player. The slow start isn't encouraging, but I am hoping he can be like Adrian Beltre (yeah right), who had a .624 OPS at this point in 2010 and had wiped out two left fielders before turning it around and putting up an MVP-caliber season.

 

I doubt Sandoval ever improves enough to be a marketable trade chip. But the Sox (and many other teams) have survived awful contracts before and still been successful.

 

I think you're comparing two different kinds of players here. Adrian Beltre is a power hitter, Pablo Sandoval is a on base percentage kind of the player with post-season magic. I don't think they ever got Sandoval for his regular season numbers. Their intent was to make the playoffs and have him take control a series like he had been doing with San Francisco previously. The only problem is, the only time they've made the playoffs since acquired Pablo Sandoval, is when he was injured the entire season.

Edited April 25, 2017 by NativeBostonian

[moonslav59]

I think you're comparing two different kinds of players here. Adrian Beltre is a power hitter, Pablo Sandoval is a on base percentage kind of the player with post-season magic. I don't think they ever got Sandoval for his regular season numbers. Their intent was to make the playoffs and have him take control a series like he had been doing with San Francisco previously. The only problem is, the only time they've made the playoffs since acquired Pablo Sandoval, is when he was injured the entire season.

 

Getting someone for just the playoffs is a seriously flawed plan.

 

Plus, how many Super Bowl MVPs have gotten big contracts and flopped?

 

We may have gotten Pablo for the playoffs, but I think Sox management expected decent to plus play during the year.

 

[Station 13]

Getting someone for just the playoffs is a seriously flawed plan.

 

Plus, how many Super Bowl MVPs have gotten big contracts and flopped?

 

We may have gotten Pablo for the playoffs, but I think Sox management expected decent to plus play during the year.

 

 

They got Pablo to play everyday. Which in retrospect over 5 years is asinine. I don't think any bidders would gone past 4 to acquired the Panda. Now he's such a spectacle fodder.

[cp176]

so - kind of a bad signing i guess as it looks right now

[moonslav59]

They got Pablo to play everyday. Which in retrospect over 5 years is asinine. I don't think any bidders would gone past 4 to acquired the Panda. Now he's such a spectacle fodder.

 

The one strange thing about the signing was how badly SF was hurt when he left, or it was a spectacular show of false sadness.

 

You'd think they knew more about him than anybody, yet they wanted him back badly. Obviously, they frowned on the 5th year, but I think I remember they surprisingly offered 4 years.

 

When we signed HRam, I was sure it was as a 3Bman, until they announced the Pablo signings right afterwards. I wish we had take Pablo's money plus Masterson's and signed Scherzer (about the same money for year 1).

[Bellhorn04]

The one strange thing about the signing was how badly SF was hurt when he left, or it was a spectacular show of false sadness.

 

You'd think they knew more about him than anybody, yet they wanted him back badly. Obviously, they frowned on the 5th year, but I think I remember they surprisingly offered 4 years.

 

When we signed HRam, I was sure it was as a 3Bman, until they announced the Pablo signings right afterwards. I wish we had take Pablo's money plus Masterson's and signed Scherzer (about the same money for year 1).

 

No matter how bad the signing looked and has turned out to be, you couldn't really foresee Pablo being quite this bad. His 2014 season was not terrible at all. He got off to a very slow start but finished strong, then had another hot postseason. So it's not unreasonable that they wanted him back.

[moonslav59]

No matter how bad the signing looked and has turned out to be, you couldn't really foresee Pablo being quite this bad. His 2014 season was not terrible at all. He got off to a very slow start but finished strong, then had another hot postseason. So it's not unreasonable that they wanted him back.

 

As much as I hated the signing from minute one, I never expected him to be this bad, especially on defense.

 

My point about the SFG's being upset losing him was meant to show how hard it is for GMs to gauge future expectation. It's easy to blame Ben "for not seeing the writing on the wall", but the team that knew the most about Pablo missed it too.

 

I get why we chose going after offense that winter and saving the pitching push for the big starter market the following season, but signing just HRam would have been fine with me. Other than the extra 1-2 years given to Pablo, I was actually more upset with the one year deal with Masterson as the "solution" to our pitching woes.

[mvp 78]

This signing didn't make sense to anyone on this board when it happened.

 

That offseason was a worse disaster than 2011.

[Station 13]

Pablo just got place on the disabled list. I wonder if he was disabled the entire time.

[moonslav59]

This signing didn't make sense to anyone on this board when it happened.

 

That offseason was a worse disaster than 2011.

 

There were a few on the old BDC board who thought it was necessary despite the extra year and money.

 

I remember talk of signing Headley instead. He's been a failure, too, but not as spectacular, and at least he provided defense.

 

I liked the idea of signing Scherzer, instead of Pablo & Masterson, and then going after Valbuena or the like.

 

 

With HRam hurt and starting slowly, now that signing is back to looking questionable, at best.

[moonslav59]

Pablo just got place on the disabled list. I wonder if he was disabled the entire time.

 

Yeah, since 2013.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, since 2013.

 

Why do you always ignore 2014?

[moonslav59]

Why do you always ignore 2014?

 

Since 2013 includes 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017.

 

His decline actually started from 2011 to 2012, but he was still decent in 2012.

 

While his UZT/150 was plus 3.4 in 2014, and one could consider that a decent year, a .739 OPS at 3B doesn't quite cut it for me.

 

Obviously from 2015 to now, he's been a complete disaster.

 

Worst or second worst 3B OPS (550+ PAs).

 

Worst UZR/150 by a 3Bman (-22.0- a full 7 points worse than number 31, Danny Valencia)

[mvp 78]

Well, 2.9 WAR guy sounds good enough for me in 2014.

[moonslav59]

Well, 2.9 WAR guy sounds good enough for me in 2014.

 

If we could get that this year from our 3B position, I'd be tickled pink!

[Nick]

I believe for many, the problem was that we got into some bad contracts with the signing of Crawford. That came from nowhere.

 

Then when the Dodgers gave us a gift by taking away burdensome contracts, I'm sure everyone was relieved. Throw that with ownership group not wanting to give long term contracts to thirty something pitchers, I thought we were going to be fiscally responsible.

 

Then Ben Cherington does this.......one would have been enough but two? It was almost as thought we were willing to gamble $40M in order to get production out of either Hanley or Pablo. Two years ago it was neither. Last year, it was Hanley.

 

Think about it, we've received one productive year for $80M. What other job can you f*** up so badly? And I thought getting one good year out of 3 year $39M for Shane Victorino was a rip off.

 

Good news, Yankee game is postponed.

Edited April 25, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I believe for many, the problem was that we got into some back contracts with the signing of Crawford. That came from nowhere.

 

That was a horrible signing from day one as well.

 

At the time, I said his contract would "cripple us for many years" and that he was nothing more than a "glorified platoon player".

 

His poor defense did sort of come out of "nowhere", but his decline was faster and steeper than even I expected.

 

CC's splits before joining Boston:

 

Year vs RHPs/ vs LHPs

 

2008 .754/.641

2009 .868/.704

2010 .930/.696

 

You guys probably think I'm hung up on splits, but it seems to me that players with wildly large splits seem to decline faster than others.

 

[moonslav59]

Think about it, we've received one productive year for $80M. What other job can you f*** up so badly? And I thought getting one good year out of 3 year $39M for Shane Victorino was a rip off.

 

We might end up spending $183M (Pablo + HRam) for just one good year (HRam's 2016 season). Even that season was just our 9th best WAR on the team at 2.6.

 

We spent what amounted to $30M for one year of Renteria.

[Bellhorn04]

I believe for many, the problem was that we got into some bad contracts with the signing of Crawford. That came from nowhere.

 

Then when the Dodgers gave us a gift by taking away burdensome contracts, I'm sure everyone was relieved. Throw that with ownership group not wanting to give long term contracts to thirty something pitchers, I thought we were going to be fiscally responsible.

 

Then Ben Cherington does this.......one would have been enough but two? It was almost as thought we were willing to gamble $40M in order to get production out of either Hanley or Pablo. Two years ago it was neither. Last year, it was Hanley.

 

 

Terrible signings, but I can't believe it was principally Cherington's idea to sign both those guys. It's pretty obvious the boys up top wanted to spend after the last place finish in 2014.

[moonslav59]

Terrible signings, but I can't believe it was principally Cherington's idea to sign both those guys. It's pretty obvious the boys up top wanted to spend after the last place finish in 2014.

 

If I had to guess, upper management wanted it more. Just my opinion.

[Nick]

My thought was use the other $20M on a pitcher. Can we not get a decent pitcher at that price anymore?

[moonslav59]

My thought was use the other $20M on a pitcher. Can we not get a decent pitcher at that price anymore?

 

Add the $9 or $10M we gave Masterson, and we could have paid $30M.

[moonslav59]

How did Pablo hurt his knee?

[Bellhorn04]

How did Pablo hurt his knee?

 

Happened fielding a ground ball in the 6th inning Sunday.

[Kimmi]

This signing didn't make sense to anyone on this board when it happened.

 

That offseason was a worse disaster than 2011.

 

I did not like the signing, but I understood the rationale behind it. In other words, from a non contract point of view, it made sense to me. As others have said, Pablo should not have been this bad up to this point in his contract. Nobody could have foreseen that.

[Kimmi]

Terrible signings, but I can't believe it was principally Cherington's idea to sign both those guys. It's pretty obvious the boys up top wanted to spend after the last place finish in 2014.

 

The Pablo contract just does not fit Cherington's MO at all. He was not going to be fooled by those postseason numbers either. I can see Hanley being a Cherington signing, but I'm not sure about that one.

[a700hitter]

The Pablo contract just does not fit Cherington's MO at all. He was not going to be fooled by those postseason numbers either. I can see Hanley being a Cherington signing, but I'm not sure about that one.

None of the bad moves were Ben's fault. That is obvious.

[moonslav59]

I did not like the signing, but I understood the rationale behind it. In other words, from a non contract point of view, it made sense to me. As others have said, Pablo should not have been this bad up to this point in his contract. Nobody could have foreseen that.

 

He was in pretty steady decline, but the curve went off a cliff.

 

His drop from 2011 to 2012 was something that should have been alarming (.909 to .789), and the fact that he did not immediately go up in any of the following years showed there was cause. The expectation should have been for further decline- possibly as large as the 2011 to 2012 one.

 

.909> .789> .758> .739 right before Boston.

 

Looking at his last two years, the drop off was just 20-30 points a year, but even if he continued at that rate, we might have expected...

 

2015: .715

2016: .690

2017: .665

2018: .640

2019: .615

 

If you took the average yearly drop from 2011 to 2014, it would be 170 points divided by 3 or about 55 points a year:

 

2015: .685

2016: .630

2017: .575

2018: .520

2019: .465

 

Somewhere in between could have been expected, and so far, somewhere in between is what we got.

 

 

 

Edited April 25, 2017 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

None of the bad moves were Ben's fault. That is obvious.

 

I have stated what I believe are Ben's bad moves many, many times. And yet, every time I say that Ben was not responsible for the Pablo signing, I get this comment from you.

[Kimmi]

He was in pretty steady decline, but the curve went off a cliff.

 

I would expect a continued steady decline. I would not expect a cliff drop in the first year of his contract.