A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[notin]

"They" is pretty obviously soxprospects.com- a small group of people who do some scouting and use other scouting sources to evaluate and rank our prospects.

 

IMO, they have done a very good job with their evaluations and rankings. They have over-rated some prospects and under-rated others. My guess is they may be slightly on the "over-rating" side over the long haul, but I think they have done a fabulous job staying objective and informative.

 

Their MLB Comparisons were usually pretty optimistic, to be kind. Thankfully they stopped doing them.

[OH FOY]

Soxprospects.com is a hype machine that thinks every Red Sox prospect is the next Ted Williams. They are not a professional scouting organization.

 

Great Post, been saying this for years. I don't go by BA, or the other guy forgot his name, prior to the Draft. Perfect Game for me, run by Scouts. You pay but get good stuff.

On that site they said Espinoza was destined to be a Reliever, will have hard time to be long term Starter. Don't think his arm would hold up for an entire Major League season as Starter.

Edited July 22, 2017 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Great Post, been saying this for years. I don't go by BA, or the other guy forgot his name, prior to the Draft. Perfect Game for me, run by Scouts. You pay but get good stuff.

On that site they said Espinoza was destined to be a Reliever, will have hard time to be long term Starter. Don't think his arm would hold up for an entire Major League season as Starter.

 

Yeah, I heard the same about Pedro.

[OH FOY]

We'll see, you comparing Espinoza to Pedro?

[Jack Flap]

Soxprospects.com is a hype machine that thinks every Red Sox prospect is the next Ted Williams. They are not a professional scouting organization.

 

Examples?

[OH FOY]

Groome is one, what has he done. He's 19 years old, just out of High School, very little professional experience, what's he ranked, and why?

[moonslav59]

We'll see, you comparing Espinoza to Pedro?

 

No, but there are several examples of smaller framed pitchers that are automatically labeled as non-starters.

 

I do think Espi has enormous upside potential as other services must agree to have ranked him so highly based on little actual observational data.

 

I do realize that his age and growth stage, there's a lot that can go wrong as well.

 

You're right: we'll see.

 

[OH FOY]

Fair enough.

[OH FOY]

I would give all new Drafted kids an Incomplete, for at least 2 years, before you rank them. Some make adjustments when they get to Professional, some not mature, some from different Countries, not used to our customs. Even missing family could affect a kid. Even College kids should get incomplete, when your making a living against others that are doing the same, different animal.

Tons of variables. Busses, Motels, Food, long new schedule, you have to adapt to.

I think after 2 years, you start seeing how a kid is maturing and progressing against other Professionals.

Edited July 22, 2017 by OH FOY!

[BstHcpr]

Examples?

 

Jeremy Papelbon was a notorious one. The moderators would delete all negative comments about him in the forum.

[OH FOY]

Funny thing we talk about Pedro, he jumped 3 leagues in 1 year at age 19, went from A+ to Triple AAA, in one year. Dodgers got kid named Walker Buehler who did the same thing this year, only difference 22 years old. Drafted from Vanderbilt. Reading he's hitting 101 with and unreal Curverball, and Slider. That organization just keeps pumping out Starters. Too bad they lost Urias, kid had a promising career. Shoulders are the worst, he might be done I was reading.

Forgot Manager at Oklahoma City said that's a slow gun. Wow!

Edited July 22, 2017 by OH FOY!

[Jack Flap]

Groome is one, what has he done. He's 19 years old, just out of High School, very little professional experience, what's he ranked, and why?

 

These are things you could easily find out for yourself by perusing their website and reading their scouting reports, which I definitely would recommend...you may find that they're more realistic about the kids in our system and the weaknesses, risks, etc. of each than you might think.

 

In Groome's case, the short answer would be that he is ranked so highly because of his very high ceiling - though obviously ceiling is not a guarantee of anything, and no one's claiming that it is. SoxProspects has him projected as a likely #2/3 starter with a ceiling of a #1 but a floor of an organizational player. I would note also that Groome was widely considered one of the top talents in the draft well before we selected him, and that national prospect lists like BA, BP, MLB.com, KLaw, Fangraphs, etc. have all ranked him in their top 100, if not top 50, so this is hardly a case of SoxProspects.com hyping him up.

 

For my part, he's so young and has pitched so few professional innings to date that I'm withholding my excitement until he's done a bit more, for the reasons that you mentioned...but that doesn't mean there aren't valid reasons for ranking him highly in a system that has very few high-ceiling types left.

[Spudboy]

No, but there are several examples of smaller framed pitchers that are automatically labeled as non-starters.

 

I do think Espi has enormous upside potential as other services must agree to have ranked him so highly based on little actual observational data.

 

I do realize that his age and growth stage, there's a lot that can go wrong as well.

 

You're right: we'll see.

 

 

Guys like Archer and Stroman come to mind. Also Kashmere.

[Larry Cook]

Groome is one, what has he done. He's 19 years old, just out of High School, very little professional experience, what's he ranked, and why?

 

Groome's stuff is electric and is why he is ranked. His curveball might be the best in minor league baseball. At worst #2 behind Giolitto.

 

Over the next three years, he either becomes the next Lester or the next trey ball.

 

Can the Red Sox minor league pitching program produce starters? We are about to find out because matta is also in Greenville.

 

Ps: the Red Sox minor league pitching program knows how to turn #1 draft picks into relievers and houck is the headed down that road. We just may not know it yet?

[Jack Flap]

With regard to Espinoza, there is a world of difference between saying some kid has some attributes that are reminiscent of Pedro vs. saying they are going to be as good as or have the same career as Pedro. I'm fairly certain that no one who is knowledgeable or serious about the Red Sox farm system ever compared AE to Pedro in the latter sense, which would obviously be absurd.

[dgalehouse]

Espinosa was touted as the next Pedro. But they meant Beato not Martinez.

[jacksonianmarch]

Espinosa was touted as being the next Pedro by Pedro.

[cp176]

Espinosa was touted as being the next Pedro by Pedro.

 

That would make some sense. I'm hoping that no one would tout anyone as being the next anyone until they had actually done something. Maybe some day Espinosa will be a good pitcher at the ml level but right now and for the foreseeable future I'm pretty happy that we have the guy we got in the trade. It was a good trade for us.

[Jack Flap]

Espinosa was touted as being the next Pedro by Pedro.

 

I think he said that about Rubby De La Rosa, too.

[Hugh2]

I think he said that about Rubby De La Rosa, too.

 

That just goes to show you nobody truly knows. You can't predict with 100% certainty how another human being is going to physically and emotionally develop.

[Hugh2]

These are things you could easily find out for yourself by perusing their website and reading their scouting reports, which I definitely would recommend...you may find that they're more realistic about the kids in our system and the weaknesses, risks, etc. of each than you might think.

 

In Groome's case, the short answer would be that he is ranked so highly because of his very high ceiling - though obviously ceiling is not a guarantee of anything, and no one's claiming that it is. SoxProspects has him projected as a likely #2/3 starter with a ceiling of a #1 but a floor of an organizational player. I would note also that Groome was widely considered one of the top talents in the draft well before we selected him, and that national prospect lists like BA, BP, MLB.com, KLaw, Fangraphs, etc. have all ranked him in their top 100, if not top 50, so this is hardly a case of SoxProspects.com hyping him up.

 

For my part, he's so young and has pitched so few professional innings to date that I'm withholding my excitement until he's done a bit more, for the reasons that you mentioned...but that doesn't mean there aren't valid reasons for ranking him highly in a system that has very few high-ceiling types left.

 

Good post, people should really educate themselves on such issues if they find them interesting. We are extremly lucky as Sox fans to have a resource such as soxprospects as there is literally no other teams fan base that has the type of access to scouting, info, discussion and insight into their farm system.

[Hugh2]

For a Ted Williams franchise/elite player, Sox Prospects would have a player noted as an 8. They currently have zero players with an 8 as a scale.

 

For an AS level player, Sox Prospects would have a player noted as a 7. They only have 3 players noted as having a ceiling of an AS: Devers, Groome and Flores.

 

Seems reasonable enough to me.

 

For Sam Travis, they have him currently at a 5, with a 4-6 range. That means they seem him as being able to contribute as an average starter in MLB with the potential maybe of someday making an AS team, but not regularly.

 

That seems reasonable too.

 

Soxprospects pretty much never gives out an 8, its almost impossible and ufair to do so. Even if you had the next Ted Williams in the system now you'd probably have him as a 6 or a 7. You can't throw that label on a guy until he's actually in the middle of doing it.

[Hugh2]

Soxprospects.com is a hype machine that thinks every Red Sox prospect is the next Ted Williams. They are not a professional scouting organization.

 

This is completely unreasonable. They had staff leave their organization to become professional scouts, which is a testament to the level of professionalism they have.

 

I've been a big fan of Sox prospects for a long time and spend more time there than here. I can tell you from years of experience they are the exact opposite of a hype machine. Very often they are lower on prospects than almost everyone out there who is unreasonably high on them. Henry Owens for example, everyone was talking about him being a #2 starter and they thought he was more likely a #4 guy if he could hone in his command. They were also lower guys who busted like Lars Anderson as well, I spefically rremember a podcast where they thought BA had him ridiculously way too high in their rankings.

 

Sure, they don't have the same resources and amount of scouts as any professional team but what they do have is more eyes on our guys that BA, Keith Law, MLB, or BP or anyone else has. Those organizations use soxprospects as a reference all the time. Because of this, they are often the first guys to hype up players that sometimes DO become players before anyone else even has a clue who they are. Guys like Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts.

[moonslav59]

This is completely unreasonable. They had staff leave their organization to become professional scouts, which is a testament to the level of professionalism they have.

 

I've been a big fan of Sox prospects for a long time and spend more time there than here. I can tell you from years of experience they are the exact opposite of a hype machine. Very often they are lower on prospects than almost everyone out there who is unreasonably high on them. Henry Owens for example, everyone was talking about him being a #2 starter and they thought he was more likely a #4 guy if he could hone in his command. They were also lower guys who busted like Lars Anderson as well, I spefically rremember a podcast where they thought BA had him ridiculously way too high in their rankings.

 

Sure, they don't have the same resources and amount of scouts as any professional team but what they do have is more eyes on our guys that BA, Keith Law, MLB, or BP or anyone else has. Those organizations use soxprospects as a reference all the time. Because of this, they are often the first guys to hype up players that sometimes DO become players before anyone else even has a clue who they are. Guys like Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts.

 

Said better than I ever could have said it.

 

Right on all fronts.

[Bellhorn04]

Espinosa was touted as the next Pedro. But they meant Beato not Martinez.

 

Pedro Beato...nicely done.

[Bellhorn04]

That just goes to show you nobody truly knows. You can't predict with 100% certainty how another human being is going to physically and emotionally develop.

 

Especially in baseball. Such a difficult and quirky game.

[Kimmi]

Especially in baseball. Such a difficult and quirky game.

 

That's the beauty of the sport.

[Bellhorn04]

That's the beauty of the sport.

 

Yes, unless you're Steve Blass or Daniel Bard.

 

[SoxHop]

Yes, unless you're Steve Blass or Daniel Bard.

 

 

Dark humor.... I dig it....

[moonslav59]

Red Sox To Promote Rafael Devers

By Mark Polishuk | July 23, 2017 at 5:13pm CDT

 

The Red Sox will promote third base prospect Rafael Devers, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski announced to the Boston Herald’s Jason Mastrodonato (Twitter link) and other reporters. Devers will join the team in Seattle tomorrow and make his Major League debut on Tuesday when the Red Sox face the Mariners (hat tip to MassLive.com’s Jen McCaffrey).

 

 

Let the Devers era begin.

 

Let it be prosperous.