A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[Kimmi]

We are lucky to have Young as a utility outfielder who is good defensively. Beni has struggled at times of late so Young can platoon for him as a reasonble move. Young is no world beater but is a solid utility outfield. Brentz would give up defensive proficiency but does have some power.

 

Moreland is in a deep slump and needs to sit or be sent onto the DL list until his injury is fully healed. I don't think it is totally his toe that is wrong, but time off might help. In the meantime Travis is a reasonble fill in and might actually shine. I would bat Travis back in the order.

 

The Holt and Marerro proposed 3rd base platoon is the decision for now but Lin sits in the minors with potentially better numberss than either.

 

Don't see anything much we can do at catcher. The platoon is reasonable but Pitchers have their favorite catcher so that also has to be considered.

 

Young is more than fine as a 4th outfielder.

 

Part of the problem with Morleand is that he was not supposed to be an everyday 1B. Maybe with Hanley finally being healthy enough to play some 1B, Farrell with will the flexibility he thought he would have at the beginning of the season.

[BstHcpr]

Lin might be better vs RHPs (even at .703) than Holt.

 

You read way too much into small sample sizes.

[moonslav59]

You read way too much into small sample sizes.

 

LOL. I know Lin's a better defender at 3B than Holt.

[BstHcpr]

LOL. I know Lin's a better defender at 3B than Holt.

 

Who cares? They both are replacement players anyway.

[moonslav59]

Who cares? They both are replacement players anyway.

 

True enough.

[moonslav59]

On signing FAs that rejected a QO...

 

The penalties that a club pays upon signing a player that rejected a QO have changed as well:

 

Any team that paid the luxury tax in the preceding season will forfeit its second- and fifth-highest draft selections in next year’s draft as well as $1MM of its international bonus pool in the upcoming period.

 

A team that did not exceed the luxury tax threshold but contributes to revenue sharing would forfeit its second-highesr draft pick as well as $500K of its upcoming international bonus pool.

 

A team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax and also received revenue sharing in the preceding season would forfeit only its third-highest pick in the next year’s draft.

[Bellhorn04]

Who cares? They both are replacement players anyway.

 

Miniscule sample obviously, but Lin posted a 0.5 bWAR in about 1/8 of a full season.

[BstHcpr]

Miniscule sample obviously, but Lin posted a 0.5 bWAR in about 1/8 of a full season.

 

Mighty Tzu Wei Lin will never have a walk rate of 13.8%, or sustain a BABIP of .377 in his career. I bet pitchers eventually pitch him inside constantly, because he's never going to drive the ball.

[oldtimer]

Mighty Tzu Wei Lin will never have a walk rate of 13.8%, or sustain a BABIP of .377 in his career. I bet pitchers eventually pitch him inside constantly, because he's never going to drive the ball.

 

Lin should be compared to Marerro and Holt. It appears he can play infield or outfield as they talk about him playing center at Pawtucket. He is an excellent fielder with better range than either Holt or Marerro. As far as hitting, he has good swing mechanics and is a tougher out than Marerro. He will never have great power but there is room for a super utiliity guy on the team that is a pesky hitter. I predict he will find his way back to the Sox and soon.

[BstHcpr]

Lin should be compared to Marerro and Holt. It appears he can play infield or outfield as they talk about him playing center at Pawtucket. He is an excellent fielder with better range than either Holt or Marerro. As far as hitting, he has good swing mechanics and is a tougher out than Marerro. He will never have great power but there is room for a super utiliity guy on the team that is a pesky hitter. I predict he will find his way back to the Sox and soon.

 

Excellent fielders don't have noodle arms.

[mvp 78]

Excellent fielders don't have noodle arms.

 

From SoxProspects: Arm: Accurate with average arm strength. Arm is passable on the left side of the infield in a reserve role.

[moonslav59]

Excellent fielders don't have noodle arms.

 

soxprospects.com says Lin has an "average arm".

[BstHcpr]

soxprospects.com says Lin has an "average arm".

 

Soxprospects.com is a hype machine that thinks every Red Sox prospect is the next Ted Williams. They are not a professional scouting organization.

[mvp 78]

Soxprospects.com is a hype machine that thinks every Red Sox prospect is the next Ted Williams. They are not a professional scouting organization.

 

Someone at a big helping of hyperbole for breakfast this morning.

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects.com is a hype machine that thinks every Red Sox prospect is the next Ted Williams. They are not a professional scouting organization.

 

That's gross hyperbole.

 

They often are critical of weak skill areas. They were big on saying Bogey would eventually have to move off SS.

 

They have a pretty good record of ranking our prospects.

Edited July 21, 2017 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

For a Ted Williams franchise/elite player, Sox Prospects would have a player noted as an 8. They currently have zero players with an 8 as a scale.

 

For an AS level player, Sox Prospects would have a player noted as a 7. They only have 3 players noted as having a ceiling of an AS: Devers, Groome and Flores.

 

Seems reasonable enough to me.

 

For Sam Travis, they have him currently at a 5, with a 4-6 range. That means they seem him as being able to contribute as an average starter in MLB with the potential maybe of someday making an AS team, but not regularly.

 

That seems reasonable too.

[oldtimer]

soxprospects.com says Lin has an "average arm".

 

That is a good reason for him to lay center in Pawtucket?

[moonslav59]

That is a good reason for him to lay center in Pawtucket?

 

It wouldn't hurt, but to me, his exceptional IF range makes up for having an average arm or slightly lower than average arm.

[BstHcpr]

For a Ted Williams franchise/elite player, Sox Prospects would have a player noted as an 8. They currently have zero players with an 8 as a scale.

 

For an AS level player, Sox Prospects would have a player noted as a 7. They only have 3 players noted as having a ceiling of an AS: Devers, Groome and Flores.

 

Seems reasonable enough to me.

 

For Sam Travis, they have him currently at a 5, with a 4-6 range. That means they seem him as being able to contribute as an average starter in MLB with the potential maybe of someday making an AS team, but not regularly.

 

That seems reasonable too.

 

Soxprospects.com is not made up of professional scouts, so when you mention that soxprospects.com thinks Lin has an average arm, you should really say YankeesRTaintLickers or MikeAndrewsBAUS at soxprospects.com thinks that Lin has an OK arm at SS.

[BstHcpr]

That's gross hyperbole.

 

They often are critical of weak skill areas. They were big on saying Bogey would eventually have to move off SS.

 

They have a pretty good record of ranking our prospects.

 

Who is they? Soxprospects.com isn't a monolithic entity.

[mvp 78]

Soxprospects.com is not made up of professional scouts, so when you mention that soxprospects.com thinks Lin has an average arm, you should really say YankeesRTaintLickers or MikeAndrewsBAUS at soxprospects.com thinks that Lin has an OK arm at SS.

 

They might not be "professional" but they have been trained by the MLB development program. Interesting that "professional scouts" like Keith Law often praise SoxProspects for the great job they do. Also interesting that the previous scouting director for Sox Prospects moved on to work for the well renowned Baseball Prospectus.

[moonslav59]

Who is they? Soxprospects.com isn't a monolithic entity.

 

"They" is pretty obviously soxprospects.com- a small group of people who do some scouting and use other scouting sources to evaluate and rank our prospects.

 

IMO, they have done a very good job with their evaluations and rankings. They have over-rated some prospects and under-rated others. My guess is they may be slightly on the "over-rating" side over the long haul, but I think they have done a fabulous job staying objective and informative.

[Maxbialystock]

"They" is pretty obviously soxprospects.com- a small group of people who do some scouting and use other scouting sources to evaluate and rank our prospects.

 

IMO, they have done a very good job with their evaluations and rankings. They have over-rated some prospects and under-rated others. My guess is they may be slightly on the "over-rating" side over the long haul, but I think they have done a fabulous job staying objective and informative.

 

I'm sure you're right, moonslav, and I myself have relied on their write-ups. However, sometimes when I read their stuff I remember that early scene in Moneyball when the Oakland Athletics scouts are sitting around the table commenting on various players. They seem to pride themselves--as does soxprospects.com--on never mentioning stats. Instead they say things like, "the ball really sounds great coming off his bat."

 

You, on the other hand, provide a plethora of stats, and I think you also track the age of prospects with respect to which level (A, AA, AAA, etc) they are at. I periodically rage against sabermetrics and especially Bill James, but I also think stats can tell you a whole lot. And I could really care less about some of the subjective, impressionistic bs I sometimes read, including in soxprospects.com.

[mvp 78]

I'm sure you're right, moonslav, and I myself have relied on their write-ups. However, sometimes when I read their stuff I remember that early scene in Moneyball when the Oakland Athletics scouts are sitting around the table commenting on various players. They seem to pride themselves--as does soxprospects.com--on never mentioning stats. Instead they say things like, "the ball really sounds great coming off his bat."

 

You, on the other hand, provide a plethora of stats, and I think you also track the age of prospects with respect to which level (A, AA, AAA, etc) they are at. I periodically rage against sabermetrics and especially Bill James, but I also think stats can tell you a whole lot. And I could really care less about some of the subjective, impressionistic bs I sometimes read, including in soxprospects.com.

 

If you listen to the recent podcasts, they are putting more of an emphasis on results with their rankings. The eyeball test has value, but you do need to supplement it with actual performance.

[moonslav59]

I'm sure you're right, moonslav, and I myself have relied on their write-ups. However, sometimes when I read their stuff I remember that early scene in Moneyball when the Oakland Athletics scouts are sitting around the table commenting on various players. They seem to pride themselves--as does soxprospects.com--on never mentioning stats. Instead they say things like, "the ball really sounds great coming off his bat."

 

You, on the other hand, provide a plethora of stats, and I think you also track the age of prospects with respect to which level (A, AA, AAA, etc) they are at. I periodically rage against sabermetrics and especially Bill James, but I also think stats can tell you a whole lot. And I could really care less about some of the subjective, impressionistic bs I sometimes read, including in soxprospects.com.

 

Great points, Max. I think it's the nature of the beast for scouts to talk like that. I think they might still be a little in the pre-Moneyball mentality mode, but overall, I think their write-ups are informative and mostly accurate.

 

[sk7326]

Soxprospects.com is not made up of professional scouts, so when you mention that soxprospects.com thinks Lin has an average arm, you should really say YankeesRTaintLickers or MikeAndrewsBAUS at soxprospects.com thinks that Lin has an OK arm at SS.

 

A lot of the places are professional scouts - they just aren't working for a team ... as Law has pointed out, scout is frankly kind of a crappy lifestyle ... like most lower level jobs in baseball ops - lots of travel, low pay. If you are a guy with some decent scouting chops - and want to have a family, working for a publication is often a healthier lifestyle.

[sk7326]

Soxprospects.com is a hype machine that thinks every Red Sox prospect is the next Ted Williams. They are not a professional scouting organization.

 

Any scout that tells you some player is the next ____________ is garbage. THAT is hype.

 

Soxprospects does not do that. They do a good job looking at tools, age, performance and putting some probability down. Remember, prospects are about probability and upside - with a bit of a bias towards upside (because that is just harder to find). They do a good job identifying best case scenario and why it could/couldn't happen.

 

For instance, Devers is in AAA (and on his small sample size he does not look overwhelmed) as a 20 year old - that is a massive good sign for his future. Just like how in high school, the 14 year old who is getting regular minutes on the varsity is where you look for future stardom.

 

Sam Travis on the other hand - from the jump - was a college 1B. The upside is inherently not great, but the probability is a little higher. Travis seems to be tracking there - no a star, but a perfectly good starter.

[sk7326]

Great points, Max. I think it's the nature of the beast for scouts to talk like that. I think they might still be a little in the pre-Moneyball mentality mode, but overall, I think their write-ups are informative and mostly accurate.

 

 

I do think the Moneyball thing vis a vis amateur scouting was disproven significantly. The problem with waiting for college and looking at stats too hard became a matter of limiting the upside pool. The Blue Jays under Ricciardi in particular were not getting enough star power into their system by looking too much at amateur stats (especially in high school where competition varies so wildly). It put them behind the curve on projectable high school talent - which is where a lot of your true star upside comes from. Note Beane has reversed course there for sure. What Moneyball did more than anything was to put "approach" on the table as a scoutable trait - something more born than made.

[moonslav59]

I do think the Moneyball thing vis a vis amateur scouting was disproven significantly. The problem with waiting for college and looking at stats too hard became a matter of limiting the upside pool. The Blue Jays under Ricciardi in particular were not getting enough star power into their system by looking too much at amateur stats (especially in high school where competition varies so wildly). It put them behind the curve on projectable high school talent - which is where a lot of your true star upside comes from. Note Beane has reversed course there for sure. What Moneyball did more than anything was to put "approach" on the table as a scoutable trait - something more born than made.

 

I totally agree.

 

I still think soxprosspects does a pretty good job at evaluating our prospects.

[moonslav59]

Updated: Last 28 Days OPS

 

.958 Pedey

.887 Betts

.875 H'Ram

.752 Beni

.739 JBJ & Lin

.730 Marrero

.697 Young

.546 Travis

.533 Vaz

.520 Moreland

.507 Holt

.498 Leon

.485 Bogey

 

OPS Against (20+ PAs)

.318 Barnes

.426 Abad

.531 Sale

.555 Price

.619 Pomeranz

.699 Kimbrel

.706 Boyer

.714 Porcello

.746 Workman

.757 Hembree

.802 Johnson

.853 Scott

.924 ERod

.969 Fister