2017 Rotation Discussion

[moonslav59]

Sale will deny it until he's blue in the face (putting all the blame on himself), but I can't help but think that not having Leon in that last outing contributed to the poor performance. I am not knocking Vazquez at all - I love the guy - but not having worked with Sale all, he can't possibly know the ins and outs of Sale the way Leon does.

 

Agree, and Vaz has been great with other pitchers (like Pom). Looking at the numbers below, it's obvious we are going with a near total pitcher-caddy system.

 

I've always been a huge believer in how much a catcher influences a pitcher's success or not. The old CERA arguments got out of hand as many used the numbers inappropriately. CERA should not be used to compare catcher across the league or from different teams and different years.

 

That being said, here are the Sox CERA numbers: (Note: some small sample sizes here due to the personal caddy nature of our catcher usage.)

CERA (IP)

Leon vs Vaz

 

2.19 (156)/ 13.50 (5.1) with Sale

[Note: 3.02 w Flowers (552), 2.51 w AJP (226), 3.53 Avila (112)]P

 

4.59(139)/ 7.11 (6.1) with Porcello

[Career: 4.09 (273) Leon, 4.55 (113 Swihart), 3.86 (100) Vaz, 4.17 Avila (578), 4.32 (296) Laird, 5.38 (82) Holaday]

 

13.50 (4)/ 3.01 (117) with Pomeranz

[Career: 3.01 (117) Vaz, 7.12 Leon (24), 3.32 (41) Holaday, 1.99 (131) Norris, 5.73 (71) Rosario]

 

4.55 (87)/ 4.55 (87), Hanigan 3.78 (50), 4.08 (71) Swihart w ERod (career only)

 

3.23 (109)/ 4.30 (163) w Price career only

[2.85 (473) Molina, 3.06 (191) Jaso, 3.61 (162) Shoppach, 3.09 (128) Navarro]

 

1.74 (21)/ 4.32 (33) w Barnes

[Career: 4.32 (60) Leon, 3.30 (60) Vaz, 4.50 (30) Swihart, 5.93 (27) Swi]

 

2.16 (25)/ 4.38 (25) w Hembree

[Career: 3.69 (46) Leon, 3.71 (51) Vaz, 1.83 (20) Hanigan, 1.20 (15) Swi]

 

1.64 (22)/ 1.35 (27) w Kimbrel

[Career: 2.38 (42) Leon, 1.62 (44) Vaz, 1.82 (158) McCann, 2.06 (48) Gattis, 2.01 (45) Norris, 0.00 (41) D Ross!!!]

 

Career Only:

Kelly

2.67 (27) Leon, 2.62 (55) Vaz, 2.81 (176) Molina, 4.83 (91) Hanigan, 4.44 (77) T Cruz, 5.10 (60) Swihart, 3.94 (32) D Ross

 

Abad

6.23 Leon (17), 2.59 (24) Vaz, 4.22 (43) Castro, 2.75 (36) Suzuki, 2.06 (35) Norris, 3.03 (30) Vogt

 

 

[Slasher9]

I like this sale guy.

[Kimmi]

Agree, and Vaz has been great with other pitchers (like Pom). Looking at the numbers below, it's obvious we are going with a near total pitcher-caddy system.

 

I've always been a huge believer in how much a catcher influences a pitcher's success or not. The old CERA arguments got out of hand as many used the numbers inappropriately. CERA should not be used to compare catcher across the league or from different teams and different years.

 

I agree with all of this. We are fortunate to have 2 catchers who are strong defensively.

[moonslav59]

I agree with all of this. We are fortunate to have 2 catchers who are strong defensively.

 

I love the defense first philosophy at the catcher position (as well as SS). An interesting note about this year's positional offense is that the catching position is the only position where our OPS has improved from 2016 to 2017!

 

2016>2017 OPS by Position

665>695 C +40

807>738 1B -69

825>773 2B -52

686>640 3B -46

784>720 SS -64

759>749 LF -10

851>790 CF -61

886>811 RF -75

1.045>794 DH -251

Edited August 11, 2017 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

I love the defense first philosophy at the catcher position (as well as SS). An interesting note about this year's positional offense is that the catching position is the only position where our OPS has improved from 2016 to 2017!

 

2016>2017 OPS by Position

665>695 C +40

807>738 1B -69

825>773 2B -52

686>640 3B -46

784>720 SS -64

759>749 LF -10

851>790 CF -61

851>811 RF -40

1.045>794 DH -251

 

Nice! For me, whatever offense our catchers provide is gravy.

 

Some more love for our catchers: According to Stat Corner, our catchers rank 7th (Vaz) and 11th (Leon) out of all catchers in pitch framing, with +6.4 and +3.2 runs above average, respectively.

[MADSTORK]

60 million away from a title.. Verlander puts this team over the top in the AL. I wonder what the internal discussions have been?

[moonslav59]

Nice! For me, whatever offense our catchers provide is gravy.

 

Some more love for our catchers: According to Stat Corner, our catchers rank 7th (Vaz) and 11th (Leon) out of all catchers in pitch framing, with +6.4 and +3.2 runs above average, respectively.

 

When you factor in handling the staff, I think our catching tandem leap-frogs several catchers in overall value. I know it's hard to prove, but IMO it is real.

[moonslav59]

60 million away from a title.. Verlander puts this team over the top in the AL. I wonder what the internal discussions have been?

 

No talks about this at all.

[BstHcpr]

60 million away from a title.. Verlander puts this team over the top in the AL. I wonder what the internal discussions have been?

 

Zero

[moonslav59]

Even if the Tigers offered to pay 1/3 of the deal, I doubt Sox brass even makes an offer.

[Larry Cook]

Even if the Tigers offered to pay 1/3 of the deal, I doubt Sox brass even makes an offer.

 

Why would Detroit offer to pay anything? Pitching is a sellers market.

[moonslav59]

Why would Detroit offer to pay anything? Pitching is a sellers market.

 

They don't, but...

 

That's the reason Verlander is still in Detroit.

 

The contract and his age.

[Larry Cook]

They don't, but...

 

That's the reason Verlander is still in Detroit.

 

The contract and his age.

 

Just those two factors? Nothing is due to how verlander is pitching this year?

[moonslav59]

Just those two factors? Nothing is due to how verlander is pitching this year?

 

Verlander has done well lately. many teams would like to have him.

 

To me, the only two thing keeping teams from acquiring him is the remainder of his contract (Tigers unwillingness to pay part of it) and how old Verlander will be as his contract goes forward.

 

Maybe there are doubts about his decline, but I think it's the money.

[Nick]

So one premise going into 2017 was that full year of Beni would upgrade our LF production. It's not working so far.

 

I'm curious to see if he can raise his game. Or did he come to mlb fully developed? He's peaked?

[BstHcpr]

He's only 23, and he's having an above average season at the dish. He's fine.

[cp176]

So one premise going into 2017 was that full year of Beni would upgrade our LF production. It's not working so far.

 

I'm curious to see if he can raise his game. Or did he come to mlb fully developed? He's peaked?

 

I think that outside of some really numb running and fielding errors, he is and will be fine for us. I think that people's expectations of the kid at the plate have been a little high though.

[Nick]

Discussion was on how to make up for Ortiz' loss. Having Beni play entire year in LF was one of ways to make up for Ortiz' loss.

[Nick]

I love the defense first philosophy at the catcher position (as well as SS). An interesting note about this year's positional offense is that the catching position is the only position where our OPS has improved from 2016 to 2017!

 

2016>2017 OPS by Position

665>695 C +40

807>738 1B -69

825>773 2B -52

686>640 3B -46

784>720 SS -64

759>749 LF -10

851>790 CF -61

851>811 RF -40

1.045>794 DH -251

 

It's hard for me to believe that near MVP sesaon produced by our RF was matched by our CF position.

[Bellhorn04]

It's hard for me to believe that near MVP sesaon produced by our RF was matched by our CF position.

 

2016 RF should be 886. moon posts great info but could use a fact-checker on his staff.

[moonslav59]

2016 RF should be 886. moon posts great info but could use a fact-checker on his staff.

 

I have one... YOU!

 

LOL.

 

Thanks. I went back and corrected it.

665>695 C +40

807>738 1B -69

825>773 2B -52

686>640 3B -46

784>720 SS -64

759>749 LF -10

851>790 CF -61

886>811 RF -75

1.045>794 DH -251

 

It looks like the catching position is the only everyday position I may come close to on my pre-season projections. I knew Leon would come back to earth, but so would Vaz, and losing Hanigan and Holaday's sub .500 OPS was hard not to be able to improve upon.

[Spudboy]

Discussion was on how to make up for Ortiz' loss. Having Beni play entire year in LF was one of ways to make up for Ortiz' loss.

 

But he was not seen as the one piece to compensate for Ortiz leaving.

 

I think we all saw that sweet swing and though we had another Betts or better.

 

He has played well at all levels and is young. He is as close to a thoroughbred as anyone this team has had since Conigliaro.

 

Unfortunately he is not a finished product. He will continue to adjust at the plate. Right now he seems to be making some bad guesses. He will catch up.

 

The left field defense has not shown improvement from last year and in fact does not seem any better since the season started. He is a decent hack out there.

 

"Oh but UZR and DRS say this and that!". Ah blow me. I see what I see.

 

The idea of supplanting the lost production of Ortiz with Beni, Sale, and "Run Prevention" is not a failure. It just has not worked out very well.

 

Of course for many of us this has come as no surprise.

[mvp 78]

But he was not seen as the one piece to compensate for Ortiz leaving.

 

I think we all saw that sweet swing and though we had another Betts or better.

 

He has played well at all levels and is young. He is as close to a thoroughbred as anyone this team has had since Conigliaro.

 

Unfortunately he is not a finished product. He will continue to adjust at the plate. Right now he seems to be making some bad guesses. He will catch up.

 

The left field defense has not shown improvement from last year and in fact does not seem any better since the season started. He is a decent hack out there.

 

"Oh but UZR and DRS say this and that!". Ah blow me. I see what I see.

 

The idea of supplanting the lost production of Ortiz with Beni, Sale, and "Run Prevention" is not a failure. It just has not worked out very well.

 

Of course for many of us this has come as no surprise.

 

Advanced stats don't like Benintendi's defense either. Do I still have to blow you?

[Spudboy]

Advanced stats don't like Benintendi's defense either. Do I still have to blow you?

 

NO!

[S5Dewey]

I think that outside of some really numb running and fielding errors, he is and will be fine for us. I think that people's expectations of the kid at the plate have been a little high though.

 

...and this is why I'm tempering my expectations for Devers a little too. When Beni came up he tore the cover off the ball but now he's become a "normal" hitter. Don't be surprised if the same thing happens to Devers.

[Nick]

The left field defense has not shown improvement from last year and in fact does not seem any better since the season started. He is a decent hack out there.

 

"Oh but UZR and DRS say this and that!". Ah blow me. I see what I see.

 

Spudboy...My exact sentiments....couldn't have said it better.

[mvp 78]

The left field defense has not shown improvement from last year and in fact does not seem any better since the season started. He is a decent hack out there.

 

"Oh but UZR and DRS say this and that!". Ah blow me. I see what I see.

 

Spudboy...My exact sentiments....couldn't have said it better.

 

But Advanced Stats don't say that? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Nick]

...and this is why I'm tempering my expectations for Devers a little too. When Beni came up he tore the cover off the ball but now he's become a "normal" hitter. Don't be surprised if the same thing happens to Devers.

 

I agree.

 

For me, it was all about why not give the kid a shot issue? I didn't care if he went hit less in few games. Every rock should be looked under with the situation we had at 3rd. Luckily he started off hot. I fully expect him to go through a slump.

 

I think there was a line in Godfather, something to the effect, "my employer wants to hear the bad news fast". If Devers was not ready, why not find out sooner rather than later? You can do all the scouting you want, but there's no substitute for playing in a real major league game. He's young. He would have bounced back.

[Nick]

I have one... YOU!

 

LOL.

 

Thanks. I went back and corrected it.

665>695 C +40

807>738 1B -69

825>773 2B -52

686>640 3B -46

784>720 SS -64

759>749 LF -10

851>790 CF -61

886>811 RF -75

1.045>794 DH -251

 

It looks like the catching position is the only everyday position I may come close to on my pre-season projections. I knew Leon would come back to earth, but so would Vaz, and losing Hanigan and Holaday's sub .500 OPS was hard not to be able to improve upon.

 

Basically, if you were in comma and just woke up to this stats, there's no way in hell you'd think we're in 1st place by 4 1/2 games on August 11th. No FREAKIN' WAY. Good job by DD for acquiring Kimbrel, Pom, Sale and Nunez and NOT trading away Devers.

Edited August 11, 2017 by Nick

[Nick]

Josh Donaldson $17,000,000

Evan Longoria $13,166,667

Chase Hadley $13,000,000

Todd Frazier $12,000,000

Manny Machado $11,500,000

 

Rafael Devers League Minimum

 

Henry Approves!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

3B is money position. I would argue that SS is a defensive position and you should not spend great deal of money on it. I'm just not keen on giving out long term $20M contract to Xander.

Edited August 11, 2017 by Nick