2017 Rotation Discussion

[a700hitter]

But somehow, if we were able to get out of having to offer that, we can only lose and "never" win.

You just don't get it. Believe what you want to believe regardless of the laws of economics and the market place.

[moonslav59]

You just don't get it. Believe what you want to believe regardless of the laws of economics and the market place.

 

So, the Pujols signing was worth it, because the market said it was.

 

I get it now.

[a700hitter]

So, the Pujols signing was worth it, because the market said it was.

 

I get it now.

Did Pujols have an opt out clause that was exercised?

[a700hitter]

So, the Pujols signing was worth it, because the market said it was.

 

I get it now.

And the Pujols signing may be on the high end of the spectrum and maybe the Angels were negotiating against themselves so it isn't a very good gauge for market value, it still has an influence on market value for future contracts. Most big long term contracts seem overvalued, but by the end of the term they no longer seem so outrageous, and many seem very reasonable but they all influence market value -- just like comparable sales in real estate-- the highest sale doesn't establish the market, but it does influence the market. Edited July 3, 2017 by a700hitter

[moonslav59]

And the Pujols signing may be on the high end of the spectrum and maybe the Angels were negotiating against themselves so it isn't a very good gauge for market value, it still has an influence on market value for future contracts. Most big long term contracts seem overvalued, but by the end of the term they no longer seem so outrageous, and many seem very reasonable.

 

Here are the top contracts of all time. How many seem "reasonable"? How many GMs would do it over again in hindsight?

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

 

Look closely at deals that are finished or almost finished...

(Note: some of these contracts might not be FA signings. I think I mis remembered some that were actually pre-FA signings by current teams. Also, factor in inflation for these earlier deals.)

 

1999:

Mike Piazza $13M x 7

Albert Belle $13M x 5

 

2001:

ARod $25.2M x 10

Manny $20M x 8 (even this great deal ended badly)

Mike Hampton $15.1M x 8 - set the standard for horrible

C Delgado $17M x 4 (yuk)

 

2002:

Ja Giambi $17.1M x 7

Ja Kendall $10m x 6

 

2003

J Thome $14.2M x 6

T Helton $15.7M x 9 (not a FA but stunk)

b Abreu $12.8M x 5

 

2004:

I Rod $10M x 4

M tejada $12m x 6 (OUCH!)

V Guerrero $14m x 5

 

2005:

C Beltran $17m x 7

magglio O $15M x 5

C Delgado $13M x 4 (yuk)

 

2006

J Damon $13M x 4

D Lee $13M x 4 (YUK)

H matsui $13M x 4

P Konerko $12M x 5

 

2007:

J Werth $18M x 8 (kinda yuk)

B Zito $18M x 7 (set a new standard for yuk)

A Soriano $17M x 8 (yuk)

Ja Schmidt $15.7M x 3 (another God-awful signing)

A Ramirez $15M x 5 (nope)

R Oswalt $14.6m x 5

JD Drew $14M x 5 (you decide)

C Utley $12.1M x 7 (yuk)

J Lugo $9M x 4

 

2008:

ARod $27.5M x 10- Meh

J Santana $22.9M x 6- Horrible

C Zambrano $18.3M x 5 - Horrible

T Hunter $18M x 5

V Wells $18m x 7 (Unreal bad)

G Sheffield $14m x 2

J Morneau $13.3M x 6 (yuk)

Fukudome $12M x 4 (nope)

Jose BGuillen $12M x 3 (nope)

Joe Nathan $11.8M x 4 (RP'er)

F Cordero $11.5M x 4 (RP'er)

J Dye $11M x 2

 

2009:

Sabathia $23M x 7

Manny $22.5M x 2 (yuk)

M Teixeira $22.5M x 8 (mostly yuk)

AJ Burnett $16.5M x 5

De Lowe $15M x 4 (did pretty well in LA)

T Hafner $14.3M x 4 (Nope)

M Young $16M x 5 (Yuk)

 

2010:

J peavy $17.3M x 3

M Holliday $17.1M x 7

Lackey $16.5M x 5

jason bay $16.5m x 4 (OMG Bad)

 

 

2011:

Cliff Lee $24M x 5

Joe Mauer $23M x 8 (yuk)

C Crawford $20.3M x 7 (super yuk)

R Halladay $20M x 3

J Beckett $17M x 4 (not as a FA)'

A Beltre $16M x 5 (not very good these years)

Tulo $15.8M x 10 (OUCH!)

Papelbon $12.5M x 4

R Soriano $11.7M x 3 (yuk)

L Berkman $14.2M x 6

A Dunn $14M x 5 (yuk)

D Uggla $12.4m x 7 (UGLY)

CarGo $11.4M x 7

 

2012:

R Howard $25M x 5 (putrid)

Sabathia $24.4M x 5 (mostly yuk)

Pujols $24M x 10 (double yuk)

P Fielder $23.8M x 9 (Yukker)

A Gon $22M x 7 (meh)

M Cain $21.7M x 6 (yikes)

M Kemp $20M x 8 (yuk)

J reyes $17.7M x 6 (yuk)

Je Weaver $17m x 5

CJ Wilson $15.5M x 5 (yuk)

Buehrle $14.5M x 4

B Phillips $12.1M x 6

 

2013:

Verlander $25.7M x 7 (hurts now)

J Hamilton $25M x 5 (horrible)

Felix H $25M x 7

Greinke $24.5M x 6

C Hamels $24M x 6

D Wright $17.3M x 8 (injuries=yuk)

A Sanchez $16M x 5 (yuk)

BJ Upton $15M x 5 (YUKERDOO!)

I Kinsler $15M x 5

N swisher $14M x 4 (YUK!)

M Montero $12M x 5 (just DFA'd)

M Bourn $12m x 4 (YUK)

 

2014:

R Cano $24M x 10

Tanaka $22.1M x 7 (Injuries)

Ellsbury $21.8M x 7 (yuk)

Choo $18.5M x 7 (yuk)

H pence $18M x 5 (injuries)

B McCann $17M x 5

R Zimmerman $16.7M x 6

Pedey $13.8M x 8

A Hill $11.7M x 3

 

Too early to judge in their entirety

 

2015:

Scherzer $30m x 8

Lester $25.8M x 6

Stanton $25M x 13

HRam $22M x 4

Pablo $19M x 5 (We all know about this one)

VMart $17M x 4 (injuries but did well)

C headley $13M x 4 (nope)

D Robertson $11.5M x 4 (RP'er)

 

2016:

Greinke $34.4M x 6

Miggy $31M x 8

Price $31M x 7

Cespedes $25M x 3

Heywood $23M x 8

C Davis $23M x 7

J Upton $22.1M x 6

Zimmerman $22M x 5

Cueto $21.7M x 6

R Braun $21M x 5

Kazmir $16M x 3

2017:

Cespedes $27.5M x 4

Strasburg $25M x 7

 

[notin]

If we benefit from him leaving , it will be for a reason other than market value. It might be because we have enough starting pitching and need hitting or because Price is a toxic clubhouse personality, but the team will not be benefiting from a value perspective. From a preference standpoint, it might be desireable for you to move on from Price, but there is no corresponding value benefit.

 

What if he opts out and then sucks?

 

Price's "value" to the Sox is largely related to His ability play baseball. Recently some others added players included Lugo and Swihart, among others.

[a700hitter]

What if he opts out and then sucks?

 

Price's "value" to the Sox is largely related to His ability play baseball. Recently some others added players included Lugo and Swihart, among others.

That could happen with any player as could an injury. How they perform after signing has no bearing on their market value when they sign. You hope you get what you paid for. Whether or not a signing ends up being good or bad has nothing to do with what I am saying. All that I am saying is that the opt out clause is a provision for the player to maximize his value. It can't benefit the club. For Price to opt out of his Red Sox contract with his age and elbow issue, it would have to be that the market for pitching is sky high. That would benefit Price, not the Red Sox as a replacement would likely cost much more than what we were paying him. If his age and elbow issue are such that he is not worth $30 million/yr, the Red Sox will have the privilege of paying the remainder of his contract.

[a700hitter]

Here are the top contracts of all time. How many seem "reasonable"? How many GMs would do it over again in hindsight?

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

 

Look closely at deals that are finished or almost finished...

(Note: some of these contracts might not be FA signings. I think I mis remembered some that were actually pre-FA signings by current teams. Also, factor in inflation for these earlier deals.)

 

1999:

Mike Piazza $13M x 7

Albert Belle $13M x 5

 

2001:

ARod $25.2M x 10

Manny $20M x 8 (even this great deal ended badly)

Mike Hampton $15.1M x 8 - set the standard for horrible

C Delgado $17M x 4 (yuk)

 

2002:

Ja Giambi $17.1M x 7

Ja Kendall $10m x 6

 

2003

J Thome $14.2M x 6

T Helton $15.7M x 9 (not a FA but stunk)

b Abreu $12.8M x 5

 

2004:

I Rod $10M x 4

M tejada $12m x 6 (OUCH!)

V Guerrero $14m x 5

 

2005:

C Beltran $17m x 7

magglio O $15M x 5

C Delgado $13M x 4 (yuk)

 

2006

J Damon $13M x 4

D Lee $13M x 4 (YUK)

H matsui $13M x 4

P Konerko $12M x 5

 

2007:

J Werth $18M x 8 (kinda yuk)

B Zito $18M x 7 (set a new standard for yuk)

A Soriano $17M x 8 (yuk)

Ja Schmidt $15.7M x 3 (another God-awful signing)

A Ramirez $15M x 5 (nope)

R Oswalt $14.6m x 5

JD Drew $14M x 5 (you decide)

C Utley $12.1M x 7 (yuk)

J Lugo $9M x 4

 

2008:

ARod $27.5M x 10- Meh

J Santana $22.9M x 6- Horrible

C Zambrano $18.3M x 5 - Horrible

T Hunter $18M x 5

V Wells $18m x 7 (Unreal bad)

G Sheffield $14m x 2

J Morneau $13.3M x 6 (yuk)

Fukudome $12M x 4 (nope)

Jose BGuillen $12M x 3 (nope)

Joe Nathan $11.8M x 4 (RP'er)

F Cordero $11.5M x 4 (RP'er)

J Dye $11M x 2

 

2009:

Sabathia $23M x 7

Manny $22.5M x 2 (yuk)

M Teixeira $22.5M x 8 (mostly yuk)

AJ Burnett $16.5M x 5

De Lowe $15M x 4 (did pretty well in LA)

T Hafner $14.3M x 4 (Nope)

M Young $16M x 5 (Yuk)

 

2010:

J peavy $17.3M x 3

M Holliday $17.1M x 7

Lackey $16.5M x 5

jason bay $16.5m x 4 (OMG Bad)

 

 

2011:

Cliff Lee $24M x 5

Joe Mauer $23M x 8 (yuk)

C Crawford $20.3M x 7 (super yuk)

R Halladay $20M x 3

J Beckett $17M x 4 (not as a FA)'

A Beltre $16M x 5 (not very good these years)

Tulo $15.8M x 10 (OUCH!)

Papelbon $12.5M x 4

R Soriano $11.7M x 3 (yuk)

L Berkman $14.2M x 6

A Dunn $14M x 5 (yuk)

D Uggla $12.4m x 7 (UGLY)

CarGo $11.4M x 7

 

2012:

R Howard $25M x 5 (putrid)

Sabathia $24.4M x 5 (mostly yuk)

Pujols $24M x 10 (double yuk)

P Fielder $23.8M x 9 (Yukker)

A Gon $22M x 7 (meh)

M Cain $21.7M x 6 (yikes)

M Kemp $20M x 8 (yuk)

J reyes $17.7M x 6 (yuk)

Je Weaver $17m x 5

CJ Wilson $15.5M x 5 (yuk)

Buehrle $14.5M x 4

B Phillips $12.1M x 6

 

2013:

Verlander $25.7M x 7 (hurts now)

J Hamilton $25M x 5 (horrible)

Felix H $25M x 7

Greinke $24.5M x 6

C Hamels $24M x 6

D Wright $17.3M x 8 (injuries=yuk)

A Sanchez $16M x 5 (yuk)

BJ Upton $15M x 5 (YUKERDOO!)

I Kinsler $15M x 5

N swisher $14M x 4 (YUK!)

M Montero $12M x 5 (just DFA'd)

M Bourn $12m x 4 (YUK)

 

2014:

R Cano $24M x 10

Tanaka $22.1M x 7 (Injuries)

Ellsbury $21.8M x 7 (yuk)

Choo $18.5M x 7 (yuk)

H pence $18M x 5 (injuries)

B McCann $17M x 5

R Zimmerman $16.7M x 6

Pedey $13.8M x 8

A Hill $11.7M x 3

 

Too early to judge in their entirety

 

2015:

Scherzer $30m x 8

Lester $25.8M x 6

Stanton $25M x 13

HRam $22M x 4

Pablo $19M x 5 (We all know about this one)

VMart $17M x 4 (injuries but did well)

C headley $13M x 4 (nope)

D Robertson $11.5M x 4 (RP'er)

 

2016:

Greinke $34.4M x 6

Miggy $31M x 8

Price $31M x 7

Cespedes $25M x 3

Heywood $23M x 8

C Davis $23M x 7

J Upton $22.1M x 6

Zimmerman $22M x 5

Cueto $21.7M x 6

R Braun $21M x 5

Kazmir $16M x 3

2017:

Cespedes $27.5M x 4

Strasburg $25M x 7

 

This is a lot of research for an issue that has nothing to do with the point that we are discussing-- opt out clauses and who they benefit.

[a700hitter]

There would be a much better chance that the Red Sox could inadvertently benefit from Price opting out if he had no known elbow issue and was younger. Any fall off in performance due to injury would be more unexpected and would not have been heavily factored into his market value. However, Price's elbow issue is known and his age will be mid 30's. These factors will weigh heavily on his marketability. If he can opt out under those conditions and get more than $31 million a year, that would mean to me that the market for younger healthier pitchers would be through the roof. So, even if he signs somewhere else and his arm falls off, it isn't going to help the Red Sox much as his replacement is likely going to cost more than what Price gets, and the new guy's arm can also explode.

[cp176]

There would be a much better chance that the Red Sox could inadvertently benefit from Price opting out if he had no known elbow issue and was younger. Any fall off in performance due to injury would be more unexpected and would not have been heavily factored into his market value. However, Price's elbow issue is known and his age will be mid 30's. These factors will weigh heavily on his marketability. If he can opt out under those conditions and get more than $31 million a year, that would mean to me that the market for younger healthier pitchers would be through the roof. So, even if he signs somewhere else and his arm falls off, it isn't going to help the Red Sox much as his replacement is likely going to cost more than what Price gets, and the new guy's arm can also explode.

 

Why does this make so much sense for me? Pretty much the way it is . Contracts being offered aren't likely to get smaller.

[jacksonianmarch]

Slav, what I'm saying is that you are smack in the middle of a window. Enjoy that. Windows close. With the farm depleted and cheap guys getting expensive, you'll reach a point where you'll have to pay premiums to your currently cheap guys and then you'll have to pay premiums to fill out the roster. Henry won't stand for a $300 mil roster. You'll rebuild

[Maxbialystock]

This is a lot of research for an issue that has nothing to do with the point that we are discussing-- opt out clauses and who they benefit.

 

Nevertheless, a great piece of work that tells its own story about the price/cost of talent in MLB. A lot of yuks in there that make the Manny Ramirez deal, $20M x 8 in 2001, look like genius. Also interesting is that the Sox didn't make many of those deals at all--not until Price, Pablo, and HanRam. Pablo at $19M x 5 in 2015 underscores why the Sox have not not tried--or have not been able to--unload him yet. Price at $31M x 7 continues to look insane. HanRam at $22M x 4 is still over priced but he is not a dead bust.

[Jack Flap]

Regarding the opt-out argument... Pablo Sandoval's contract was "market rate," but that doesn't mean it was in our best interest to give it out. If Price pitches at an All-Star level for the next year and a half, some team may give him a silly new contract, and I'd be happy to let them. As we've been reminded lately, this organization's spending power is limited, and I just have a hard time imagining the best way for us to allocate $31 million will be on an age 33-37 David Price.

 

Of course, I'd guess that it's much more likely at this point that he declines the opt-out and we're on the hook for the full contract, making all this a moot point...but I have a hard time seeing how him exercising it would not be the best-case scenario for the team as well as (if he can actually land a better deal) for Price himself.

Edited July 3, 2017 by Jack Flap

[S5Dewey]

All of those big contracts have something in common. The team is hoping the player will continue to perform at a high level at the front end of the contract and hoping that the player will only be overpaid (as compared to being grossly overpaid) at the back end.

 

In fairness to Price, 230 IP & 17-9 in 2016 helped get the team to the playoffs. On the flip side of the coin, that ERA of 4.00 and WHIP of 1.2xx isn't impressive but it is what it is and without him (IMO) we wouldn't have made the playoffs. That may not be worth $31M to us but it allowed the Sox to boost ticket prices so it's worth something to them.

 

He's currently 3-2 and his WHIP is higher than last year but I still don't think 14-15 wins is out of the question for him. But to me that's not worth $31M UNLESS we make the playoffs and he becomes Curt Schilling for a couple of weeks. 4-5 playoff wins can make up for a lot of frustration during the regular season.

 

In short, he's not worth $31M in either of his two years here and those were supposed to be his BEST years. It's safe to assume that he's only going downhill from here. Sometimes those assumptions are wrong and a pitcher 'learns to pitch' and becomes valuable in his later years but that's not the way to bet.

 

IMO the best realistic hope for us is that he becomes a guy who wins 15-16 games a year and becomes only overpaid instead of grossly overpaid for the remainder of his contract.

[Jack Flap]

How they perform after signing has no bearing on their market value when they sign. You hope you get what you paid for. Whether or not a signing ends up being good or bad has nothing to do with what I am saying.

Not to dredge up the eternal argument that will likely be the Pomeranz trade, but I'm just going to point out that this sounds a lot like the case for why we shouldn't have traded Espinoza: as a top 15 or 20 pitching prospect at the time of the trade, with a perceived ceiling of a top-of-the-rotation starter, he was a chip far too valuable to give up for someone with Pomeranz's history and question marks. Whether Espinoza never makes the majors, or blows out his arm and never pitches again (risks that you certainly take with any young pitcher), is kind of beside the point, because we know what he was at the time of the trade and can form an opinion on the trade based on that.

 

Interesting that you can look at $ contracts in an abstract way where the market rate at the time they were signed is all that matters, but disregard the immense value that elite prospects have in today's game.

For Price to opt out of his Red Sox contract with his age and elbow issue, it would have to be that the market for pitching is sky high. That would benefit Price, not the Red Sox as a replacement would likely cost much more than what we were paying him.

A younger, healthier, and better player is always going to cost more, but I don't think that means the added cost isn't worth it, and paying megabucks to an old guy like Price in a few years means you have less to spend on a younger stud. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will command a lot more than Hanley Ramirez in a couple of years, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't rather be writing checks to them than the latter.

Edited July 3, 2017 by Jack Flap

[Bellhorn04]

With Price there appears to be a possibility he opts out for non-financial reasons.

[Jack Flap]

With Price there appears to be a possibility he opts out for non-financial reasons.

 

That certainly seems possible, but that's still a ton of money to leave on the table unless he knows he can get the same (or at least close) elsewhere.

[Bellhorn04]

That certainly seems possible, but that's still a ton of money to leave on the table unless he knows he can get the same (or at least close) elsewhere.

 

Yes, absolutely, I'm just throwing it out there. If he really is unhappy in Boston, 4 more years is a long time.

[moonslav59]

Slav, what I'm saying is that you are smack in the middle of a window. Enjoy that. Windows close. With the farm depleted and cheap guys getting expensive, you'll reach a point where you'll have to pay premiums to your currently cheap guys and then you'll have to pay premiums to fill out the roster. Henry won't stand for a $300 mil roster. You'll rebuild

 

Look how the Yankess "rebuilt". We barely noticed the window of futility.

 

They never parted with all their young players and prospects. They were able to keep all the vets they wanted, perhaps to a fault, yet they still had a fire sale and became competitive again very quickly. We had a fire sale, too not long ago. We suffered through 3 last place finishes if 4 years, but still managed to win in 2013. One could argue we never had a true rebuild period.

 

I'm not doubting the "window". I'm still a firm believer that there will be a cliff after 2019 or 2020, unless Henry decides to go significantly over the luxury tax limit- something he has never done so far. That being said, I'm still not for totally abandoning any hope for winning from 2020 to 2024 or 2025 by trading away Devers, Groome and/or Travis for more "here and now" players, especially for a 2 month rental or two.

 

I think we can do what needs to be done to significantly improve our chances this year, reset the luxury tax, so we can go over the limit over the next few years while keeping Devers, Groome and probably Travis. We'll need Devers next year. He's part of the "win now window". Travis could be as well. Groome may be farther away, but Pom and Porcello's impending free agency arrives before the window's last season, so he may be needed to fill one of their slots.

 

Juyst about every available penny will be needed to cover arb and option raises and keeping Kimbrel or his likeness. If we try to keep Kimbrel and Pom or the like, we will be near the maximum penalty sooner than some think. Chances are we may need to fill in an unforeseen hole here and there, so keeping 3 top prospects at a low cost is essential to winning in the window and beyond.

 

[S5Dewey]

Look how the Yankess "rebuilt". We barely noticed the window of futility.

 

They never parted with all their young players and prospects. They were able to keep all the vets they wanted, perhaps to a fault, yet they still had a fire sale and became competitive again very quickly. We had a fire sale, too not long ago. We suffered through 3 last place finishes if 4 years, but still managed to win in 2013. One could argue we never had a true rebuild period.

 

I'm not doubting the "window". I'm still a firm believer that there will be a cliff after 2019 or 2020, unless Henry decides to go significantly over the luxury tax limit- something he has never done so far. That being said, I'm still not for totally abandoning any hope for winning from 2020 to 2024 or 2025 by trading away Devers, Groome and/or Travis for more "here and now" players, especially for a 2 month rental or two.

 

I think we can do what needs to be done to significantly improve our chances this year, reset the luxury tax, so we can go over the limit over the next few years while keeping Devers, Groome and probably Travis. We'll need Devers next year. He's part of the "win now window". Travis could be as well. Groome may be farther away, but Pom and Porcello's impending free agency arrives before the window's last season, so he may be needed to fill one of their slots.

 

Juyst about every available penny will be needed to cover arb and option raises and keeping Kimbrel or his likeness. If we try to keep Kimbrel and Pom or the like, we will be near the maximum penalty sooner than some think. Chances are we may need to fill in an unforeseen hole here and there, so keeping 3 top prospects at a low cost is essential to winning in the window and beyond.

 

 

I don't deny any of this, but at the same time don't underestimate what the Sox did just yesterday when they positioned themselves much better to obtain International signings. That move went somewhat under the radar but it could be a HUGE move in avoiding the dreaded "cliff".

[Emp9]

Yes, absolutely, I'm just throwing it out there. If he really is unhappy in Boston, 4 more years is a long time.

 

That's what I think as well. If he's REALLY UNHAPPY, he may walk.

[Nick]

That's what I think as well. If he's REALLY UNHAPPY, he may walk.

 

He may walk if he can get $30M for 4 years but I don't see a market for him at that price. Say what you will but he will not walk for less money. Baseball players do not get the big endorsement shoe contracts that basketball players do. NBA guys can take a cut in pay and still make money. Not so much in baseball. Ortiz endorsement is nowhere close to what NBA stars are getting.

[Emp9]

He may walk if he can get $30M for 4 years but I don't see a market for him at that price. Say what you will but he will not walk for less money. Baseball players do not get the big endorsement shoe contracts that basketball players do. NBA guys can take a cut in pay and still make money. Not so much in baseball. Ortiz endorsement is nowhere close to what NBA stars are getting.

 

In theory, He could also accept a trade if he's that unhappy as well. Fat chance, but it's possible.

[jacksonianmarch]

Look how the Yankess "rebuilt". We barely noticed the window of futility.

 

This is rare, and trust me, Yankee fans felt it. Playing 1 playoff game over 4 years with a middling $200+ mil roster sucked. I anticipate Henry won't allow a $200 mil annual failure to stand. Also, the rarity of being able to stay competitive and rebuild is incredible. But we had the top end talent. We stopped dealing it away during our run. We held onto Sanchez through the fall in 2012 into 2013. We drafted Judge in 2013. We made big money signings and turned them into prospects. We dealt away a good reliever and got Castro. We dealt away nothing and got Chapman and in turn got Warren back and a top 5 prospect. The idea that DD would guide this team through a rebuild is odd. He isn't here to keep you guys relevant for the next decade. He is here to win a title now. You dealt Margot, Kopech, Moncada, Espinosa, Shaw and Dubon in the span of two seasons. Even though Espy looks like he needs TJS and Dubon has been average, the other four are knocking on the door of long and successful big league careers. We didn't do that after 2012. Cash realized that we needed to get younger and he stopped making vet for kid deals. Cash has been preparing a rebuild for 5 years.

 

They never parted with all their young players and prospects. They were able to keep all the vets they wanted, perhaps to a fault, yet they still had a fire sale and became competitive again very quickly. We had a fire sale, too not long ago. We suffered through 3 last place finishes if 4 years, but still managed to win in 2013. One could argue we never had a true rebuild period.

 

We didnt part with prospects, real, true prospects, for about 5 years. You did have a true rebuild period. And in doing so, you had the game's #2 farm system in baseball (#1 IMO). Then you graduated a few players (see Killer B's) and then dealt off a slew to fortify your team. The well after Devers is pretty dry right now, and because your window is now, your drafts are going to have lower pool amounts and the talent brought in will be further away or non existant.

 

I'm not doubting the "window". I'm still a firm believer that there will be a cliff after 2019 or 2020, unless Henry decides to go significantly over the luxury tax limit- something he has never done so far. That being said, I'm still not for totally abandoning any hope for winning from 2020 to 2024 or 2025 by trading away Devers, Groome and/or Travis for more "here and now" players, especially for a 2 month rental or two.

 

If DD thought the player he was getting was the one to put you over the top, then Devers and Groome are gone. Part of being a fan is knowing who is pushing the buttons. DD isn't here to win in 2020. He is here to win now

 

I think we can do what needs to be done to significantly improve our chances this year, reset the luxury tax, so we can go over the limit over the next few years while keeping Devers, Groome and probably Travis. We'll need Devers next year. He's part of the "win now window". Travis could be as well. Groome may be farther away, but Pom and Porcello's impending free agency arrives before the window's last season, so he may be needed to fill one of their slots.

 

You may reset the lux tax, and if you do, more power to you. But you can only reset it because you are paying peanuts to your killer B's. That will not last forever.

 

Just about every available penny will be needed to cover arb and option raises and keeping Kimbrel or his likeness. If we try to keep Kimbrel and Pom or the like, we will be near the maximum penalty sooner than some think. Chances are we may need to fill in an unforeseen hole here and there, so keeping 3 top prospects at a low cost is essential to winning in the window and beyond.

 

 

I do not for a second think that DD would pass up winning a title this year because of the lux tax.

[jacksonianmarch]

He may walk if he can get $30M for 4 years but I don't see a market for him at that price. Say what you will but he will not walk for less money. Baseball players do not get the big endorsement shoe contracts that basketball players do. NBA guys can take a cut in pay and still make money. Not so much in baseball. Ortiz endorsement is nowhere close to what NBA stars are getting.

 

Anyone who thinks he is walking away from the last few years of his contract are fools. Price now has an elbow issue. All roads eventual lead to TJS. If he opts out, he will be worth far less than he is set to earn. Tanaka is in the same boat. If either of them opt out, they are dummies

[Nick]

This is rare, and trust me, Yankee fans felt it. Playing 1 playoff game over 4 years with a middling $200+ mil roster sucked. I anticipate Henry won't allow a $200 mil annual failure to stand. Also, the rarity of being able to stay competitive and rebuild is incredible. But we had the top end talent. We stopped dealing it away during our run. We held onto Sanchez through the fall in 2012 into 2013. We drafted Judge in 2013. We made big money signings and turned them into prospects. We dealt away a good reliever and got Castro. We dealt away nothing and got Chapman and in turn got Warren back and a top 5 prospect. The idea that DD would guide this team through a rebuild is odd. He isn't here to keep you guys relevant for the next decade. He is here to win a title now. You dealt Margot, Kopech, Moncada, Espinosa, Shaw and Dubon in the span of two seasons. Even though Espy looks like he needs TJS and Dubon has been average, the other four are knocking on the door of long and successful big league careers. We didn't do that after 2012. Cash realized that we needed to get younger and he stopped making vet for kid deals. Cash has been preparing a rebuild for 5 years.

 

 

 

We didnt part with prospects, real, true prospects, for about 5 years. You did have a true rebuild period. And in doing so, you had the game's #2 farm system in baseball (#1 IMO). Then you graduated a few players (see Killer B's) and then dealt off a slew to fortify your team. The well after Devers is pretty dry right now, and because your window is now, your drafts are going to have lower pool amounts and the talent brought in will be further away or non existant.

 

 

 

If DD thought the player he was getting was the one to put you over the top, then Devers and Groome are gone. Part of being a fan is knowing who is pushing the buttons. DD isn't here to win in 2020. He is here to win now

 

 

 

You may reset the lux tax, and if you do, more power to you. But you can only reset it because you are paying peanuts to your killer B's. That will not last forever.

 

 

 

I do not for a second think that DD would pass up winning a title this year because of the lux tax.

 

I've not followed the Yankees that closely. It appears they have full of young position talent. Basically they are tying to outscore their opponents and have succeeded.

 

I guess the question is what pieces they will add to put them over the top. The window is never open for very long. My perception is they need to add starting pitchers?

[moonslav59]

I don't deny any of this, but at the same time don't underestimate what the Sox did just yesterday when they positioned themselves much better to obtain International signings. That move went somewhat under the radar but it could be a HUGE move in avoiding the dreaded "cliff".

 

I'm certainly more optimistic about the extended future than last winter, not only because of some shrewd trades to increase Int'l spending abilities and to sign 3 top young players, but also with a few marginal prospects boosting their stock this summer. I also liked the draft, but do not expect a whole lot there drafting so low in the order.

 

I still see a "cliff" in 3 to 4 years.

[moonslav59]

I do not for a second think that DD would pass up winning a title this year because of the lux tax.

 

It's a three to four year window NOT one.

 

I do think resetting the luxury tax is a high priority, despite what has been said. It is not essential, but I firmly believe that if we don't reset this year, we will next,

and that will entail not replacing Young, Moreland and Abad with costly FAs. This means we will need Devers and probably Travis.

 

As much as I hate to think it, I can see Groome being the one traded, if we go large at the deadline. BTW, we can go "large" and still stay under the luxury tax this year as just 1/3 counts.

 

[a700hitter]

With Price there appears to be a possibility he opts out for non-financial reasons.

Walking away from a healthy contract for less money? Who has done that?

[a700hitter]

Not to dredge up the eternal argument that will likely be the Pomeranz trade, but I'm just going to point out that this sounds a lot like the case for why we shouldn't have traded Espinoza: as a top 15 or 20 pitching prospect at the time of the trade, with a perceived ceiling of a top-of-the-rotation starter, he was a chip far too valuable to give up for someone with Pomeranz's history and question marks. Whether Espinoza never makes the majors, or blows out his arm and never pitches again (risks that you certainly take with any young pitcher), is kind of beside the point, because we know what he was at the time of the trade and can form an opinion on the trade based on that.

 

Interesting that you can look at $ contracts in an abstract way where the market rate at the time they were signed is all that matters, but disregard the immense value that elite prospects have in today's game.

I didn't disregard the value of prospects, because they were not in the scope of the discussion. The discussion centered around the market value of major league arms. I don't see any of this discussion as being relevant to prospects in the minors. That is a whole different type of market as it involves exponentially more imprecision regarding level of performance and ceilings.

 

A younger, healthier, and better player is always going to cost more, but I don't think that means the added cost isn't worth it, and paying megabucks to an old guy like Price in a few years means you have less to spend on a younger stud. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will command a lot more than Hanley Ramirez in a couple of years, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't rather be writing checks to them than the latter.

I don't disagree, but was just noting that the exercise/non-exercise of the opt out clause would not have positive financial effect for the Red Sox if it sought to replace him in the rotation. Redeployment of assets for hitting is a different issue, and I did acknowledge that.