2017 Rotation Discussion

[Kimmi]

Say what you will about him, but Price has provided more value in his 7 uneven starts this season (0.3 bWAR) than Sandoval has in three years so far (-2.0).

 

Price has not been terrible. He has just not lived up to expectations. When he was signed, people were expecting an ace, much like what we've gotten from Sale this season. That hasn't happened yet, so it seems like his contract has been really bad. But to date, in terms of value, his contract has not been bad.

 

What happens for the remainder of his contract is a different story.

[SoxHop]

If he really a hates playing in Boston,he will make the situation intolerable and possibly we trade him. He isn't going to walk away from the money.

 

You're right.........

 

I do wonder how that elbow is going to hold up......... I wonder if he gets off season surgery.

 

Price is strange........ I can see why he isn't a fan favorite. He's not dominate, he's just quietly very very good. Or at least that's how I look at it. He has no flair.

 

A Gladiator needs to win excite the crowd to be a fan favorite............ ask J.D. Drew.....

[Nick]

Price has not been terrible. He has just not lived up to expectations. When he was signed, people were expecting an ace, much like what we've gotten from Sale this season. That hasn't happened yet, so it seems like his contract has been really bad. But to date, in terms of value, his contract has not been bad.

 

What happens for the remainder of his contract is a different story.

 

Yes....that in itself will determine the depth of the impending cliff that we're all going down on!!!!!

[Jack Flap]

Price has not been terrible. He has just not lived up to expectations. When he was signed, people were expecting an ace, much like what we've gotten from Sale this season. That hasn't happened yet, so it seems like his contract has been really bad. But to date, in terms of value, his contract has not been bad.

 

What happens for the remainder of his contract is a different story.

 

Well said.

[moonslav59]

I wasn't talking about you or your recent post.

 

Perfect scenario is for us to win in both 2017 and 2018 with Price having great years, then opting out. We could use that money and use it to keep Xander, JBJ, Betts and Chris Freakin' Sale.

 

I just want the Sox to win. Fans will be there if we're winning. Let's see where Sale is in two years. Who the freak knows, he may be declining by then.

 

True enough.

 

Also, if Price has two great years, it might not be so bad keeping him either, despite his age and contract cost years 4 to 7.

[notin]

I have a lot of issues with the Price signing, and not one of them involves whether or not he gets along with Dennis Eckersley...

[moonslav59]

So that we can pay $30 million + per year for a guy that isn't as good as Price?

 

It's not just about replacing a pitcher as good as Price for $30M, assuming he is strong this and next year combined. It's about what is expected from Price on the downside of his career. He's going to turn 34 during his 4th year of his contract and 37 during his 7th year of the deal.

 

I would think we can probably replace his projected production from ages 33-37 with a $30M offer to a guy in his late 20's or early 30's.

[a700hitter]

It's not just about replacing a pitcher as good as Price for $30M, assuming he is strong this and next year combined. It's about what is expected from Price on the downside of his career. He's going to turn 34 during his 4th year of his contract and 37 during his 7th year of the deal.

 

I would think we can probably replace his projected production from ages 33-37 with a $30M offer to a guy in his late 20's or early 30's.

And if he is not worth that money at age 34, he will not get it and the Red Sox will have to pay him.

[moonslav59]

And if he is not worth that money at age 34, he will not get it and the Red Sox will have to pay him.

 

Agreed, but that wasn't the point I was addressing.

[a700hitter]

Agreed, but that wasn't the point I was addressing.

And I am just pointing out that the point you are making will not come into play with his opt out clause. Price will not opt out of the contract unless he can make more money. If he can make more money at age 34, it will mean that the market has exploded and that we had him below market price.

[notin]

And I am just pointing out that the point you are making will not come into play with his opt out clause. Price will not opt out of the contract unless he can make more money. If he can make more money at age 34, it will mean that the market has exploded and that we had him below market price.

 

I believe he means the Sox all expected Price to suck for a few years on his deal, and the hope was the early years would make the later ones not matter....

[Bellhorn04]

Opt-out clauses are definitely not put in there in for the benefit of the team. In the case of Sabathia, the Yankees would have been better off if they let him exercise his. This demonstrates that due to all the vagaries of baseball the team might benefit from the opt-out clause-through luck, essentially.

[Emp9]

I have a lot of issues with the Price signing, and not one of them involves whether or not he gets along with Dennis Eckersley...

 

Same here,..... but it does open some eyes on how delicate Price's ego seems to be. If Price really doesn't like it in Boston I hope he opts out and I'd wish him well on top of it.

 

Edit: I like Eck a lot (entertaining, funny, insightful, knowledgeable) and he doesn't seem to be a problem. He's just too honest I guess for some ppl.

Edited July 2, 2017 by Emp9

[OH FOY]

Work 2nd shift, what happened on the play that set this off? What did Eck say on TV? Thanks.

[Emp9]

Work 2nd shift, what happened on the play that set this off? What did Eck say on TV? Thanks.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/david-prices-reported-argument-hall-famer-leaves-red-sox-disturbed-013255811.html

[Jack Flap]

Work 2nd shift, what happened on the play that set this off? What did Eck say on TV? Thanks.

 

He pointed out Price failing to cover first base during a play on Thursday - basically called it a mistake but said it happens and he has done the same in the past. That's it. He wasn't bashing or insulting Price at all, unless there was some other incident I didn't hear about.

 

Seriously, if that was it, and Price can be set off by even the mildest criticism (particularly from someone who has been complimentary and supportive of him overall, as far as I know), he really just needs to tune out all news and media altogether. If he pitches well, stupid s*** like this doesn't really matter to me, but for his own sake I hope he figures out some healthier way to deal with it...

[notin]

He pointed out Price failing to cover first base during a play on Thursday - basically called it a mistake but said it happens and he has done the same in the past. That's it. He wasn't bashing or insulting Price at all, unless there was some other incident I didn't hear about.

 

Seriously, if that was it, and Price can be set off by even the mildest criticism (particularly from someone who has been complimentary and supportive of him overall, as far as I know), he really just needs to tune out all news and media altogether. If he pitches well, stupid s*** like this doesn't really matter to me, but for his own sake I hope he figures out some healthier way to deal with it...

 

Its also potentially being more overblown in the media than it deserves. ..

[Emp9]

He is tired of the media and their negative covfefe.

 

lol

[Kimmi]

Its also potentially being more overblown in the media than it deserves. ..

 

Yup, that is probably the case.

 

I read this morning that the argument wasn't over something Eck said about Price, but rather over something that Eck said about another player.

[Jack Flap]

Its also potentially being more overblown in the media than it deserves. ..

I don't know what makes you say that...it's like you don't know the Boston sports media at all...

 

Yup, that is probably the case.

 

I read this morning that the argument wasn't over something Eck said about Price, but rather over something that Eck said about another player.

I read something to this effect as well and this would actually make a lot more sense to me.

[moonslav59]

And I am just pointing out that the point you are making will not come into play with his opt out clause. Price will not opt out of the contract unless he can make more money. If he can make more money at age 34, it will mean that the market has exploded and that we had him below market price.

 

I don't want Price at $31M from age 34 to 37, even if he coming off a Cy Young season and other teams will offer him more money.

 

I don't care, if the market has risen to make him "worth it". I'd rather have a young stud.

[a700hitter]

I don't want Price at $31M from age 34 to 37, even if he coming off a Cy Young season and other teams will offer him more money.

 

I don't care, if the market has risen to make him "worth it". I'd rather have a young stud.

If the market for a 34 year old is more than $31 million, the market for the young stud will be more.

[moonslav59]

If the market for a 34 year old is more than $31 million, the market for the young stud will be more.

 

Of course it would be, but I'd pay more or get a slightly lesser skilled (younger) pitcher for the same money.

 

It's insane to want to pay a pitcher from age 34 to 37 $31M a year, even if the market rises sharply.

[a700hitter]

Of course it would be, but I'd pay more or get a slightly lesser skilled (younger) pitcher for the same money.

 

It's insane to want to pay a pitcher from age 34 to 37 $31M a year, even if the market rises sharply.

Which is the point that I made initially to which you responded. If Price opts out, the Red Sox will have to pay the same amount or more to get a guy that may not be even as good as Price.

[a700hitter]

Of course it would be, but I'd pay more or get a slightly lesser skilled (younger) pitcher for the same money.

 

It's insane to want to pay a pitcher from age 34 to 37 $31M a year, even if the market rises sharply.

If the market rises sharply, the Red Sox would not have the opportunity to continue to pay Price $31 million. He will opt out.

 

Somehow you think that this opt out clause can benefit the Red Sox. It cannot. If Price is worth more than $31 million he will leave and the Red Sox will have to pay more to replace him. If he is worthless than $31 million, the Red Sox will be stuck paying his contract. It is a clause for the benefit of Price. It will never benefit the Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

Which is the point that I made initially to which you responded. If Price opts out, the Red Sox will have to pay the same amount or more to get a guy that may not be even as good as Price.

 

As good as Price might have been in 2018, but not as projected going forward.

 

Top FAs are continually being paid big money for what they did in the past. Most big FA signings fell far short from expectations after the signing.

 

When I speak of getting someone slightly worse than Price (but younger) for the same money, I'm talking about their past and current value-NOT their future value.

 

In theory, I'd rather have a 30 year old pitcher who just finished 5th in Cy Young than a 34 year old Price coming off a theoretical CY Young award season in 2018 at near the same money per year.

 

If Price went 40-4 with a 1.80 ERA the rest of his contract, I'd be happy, if he bolted with his opt out clause. I'm not sure why you find this to be an unreasonable position.

 

I agree that it is highly unlikely Price bolts, and if he does, it will be because he thinks and is likely to get more money elsewhere. Just because some other GM might pay Price more doesn't mean I have to agree hes' worth it and would want him here at $31M instead of the $33M he gets from the Dodgers. The Dodgers don't set my beliefs on what a player is worth financially.

 

As things stand right now, and everything can change with an injury or career turnaround, I want to be able to extend or re-sign Sale, Betts, JBJ and Bogey. I do not value Price's 34-37 year old years as important as keeping our young studs. I hope Price wins the Cy Young.i was glad Porcello did, but winning it has little to do with what is to come. If Price does well enough to be able to get more elsewhere, I'd be happy in many ways. It would mean we probably won a championship this year or next, and we 'd have his money available to spend on younger players with better projected futures tahn a 34 year old starter.

 

[moonslav59]

If the market rises sharply, the Red Sox would not have the opportunity to continue to pay Price $31 million. He will opt out.

 

Somehow you think that this opt out clause can benefit the Red Sox. It cannot. If Price is worth more than $31 million he will leave and the Red Sox will have to pay more to replace him. If he is worthless than $31 million, the Red Sox will be stuck paying his contract. It is a clause for the benefit of Price. It will never benefit the Red Sox.

 

Never?

 

Is it not possible that Price pitched very well and/or the starter market rises sharply to the point where he opts out. Price then realizes his age appropriate decline or gets hurt or follows the path of most big name FA signings that fall way short of expectations for the team he goes to. We use the money saved to keep more of our young players or sign another sP'er that may not have the history of Price, but nevertheless ends up doing better than the 34-37 years old Price.

 

This scenario may be unlikely, but it is certainly possible, if Price opts out..

[a700hitter]

Never?

 

Is it not possible that Price pitched very well and/or the starter market rises sharply to the point where he opts out. Price then realizes his age appropriate decline or gets hurt or follows the path of most big name FA signings that fall way short of expectations for the team he goes to. We use the money saved to keep more of our young players or sign another sP'er that may not have the history of Price, but nevertheless ends up doing better than the 34-37 years old Price.

 

This scenario may be unlikely, but it is certainly possible, if Price opts out..

Age and probability of injury would get factored into his market value, so that is right, it never would it work to our advantage in the open market. If he gets injured, that is happenstance, no different than the young stud getting injured.

[moonslav59]

Age and probability of injury would get factored into his market value, so that is right never would it work to our advantage in the open market. If he gets injured, that is happenstance, no different thn the young stud getting injured.

 

So, it's still impossible for Price opting out to ever benefit us?

 

Even if Price does well after leaving us, we could still benefit by him leaving, and it's not some minor percentage of a chance.

 

Look, I agree the chances are very slim he opts out. Very very slim, and I get the point that if he does opt out, it must mean he has probably done great for us and the market price for starters have risen considerably, but FA market prices for top FAs is not an accurate gauge of true value. History has shown that the majority of big FA signings have turned out badly for the teams signing them. You'd think that would adjust the market prices, but it hasn't. They keep going up.

teams continue to pay for past performance in the hopes that they will get some of that past value into the future. It rarely happens.

 

That's the reason I'd love to see Price bolt, even if he has been pitching like superman at age 32-33 with us.

[Bellhorn04]

If the market rises sharply, the Red Sox would not have the opportunity to continue to pay Price $31 million. He will opt out.

 

Somehow you think that this opt out clause can benefit the Red Sox. It cannot. If Price is worth more than $31 million he will leave and the Red Sox will have to pay more to replace him. If he is worthless than $31 million, the Red Sox will be stuck paying his contract. It is a clause for the benefit of Price. It will never benefit the Red Sox.

 

The Yankees would have been better off if Sabathia exercised his opt out and signed elsewhere - agree or disagree?