2017 Rotation Discussion

[Fisk]

Somebody do the math: if we are subtracting Sale's 2 starts, why not subtract Wright's and Porcello's one bad start each and show the new numbers?

 

 

Our rotation is going to be fine.

 

Your exactly right, way to short a sample size.

[Spudboy]

Somebody do the math: if we are subtracting Sale's 2 starts, why not subtract Wright's and Porcello's one bad start each and show the new numbers?

 

 

Our rotation is going to be fine.

 

But the Red Sox records is not reflected by subtracting anyone. It is built by the entire staff. Kimmi's stats are valid and paint a dismal picture.

 

Still, the Sox have been in almost each game and it is reasonable to assume or project that all of the faltering arms will perform better going forward. They had better or this will be a long and ugly season.

[Fisk]

But the Red Sox records is not reflected by subtracting anyone. It is built by the entire staff. Kimmi's stats are valid and paint a dismal picture.

 

Still, the Sox have been in almost each game and it is reasonable to assume or project that all of the faltering arms will perform better going forward. They had better or this will be a long and ugly season.

 

I would not call it a dismal picture, it's 2poor starts out of 10.

[moonslav59]

But the Red Sox records is not reflected by subtracting anyone. It is built by the entire staff. Kimmi's stats are valid and paint a dismal picture.

 

Still, the Sox have been in almost each game and it is reasonable to assume or project that all of the faltering arms will perform better going forward. They had better or this will be a long and ugly season.

 

Small sample sizes are "valid" but not necessarily meaningful.

 

I did the math: take away Sale and our two worst starts, and we have this:

 

Totals: 35 ER/55.2 IP (5.66 ERA)

 

- Sale 2 ER/14.2 IP

-Porcello's bad start: 8ER/4.1 IP

-Wright's bad start: 8ER/1.1 IP

New Total: 17 ER/25.1 IP (6.04 ERA)

 

Just take away the 2 bad starts and keep Sale's 2 starts included, and we have:

19 ER/50 IP (3.42 ERA)

 

3.42 would rank 10th, although if you took away everyone's worst two starts, it wouldn't look that great.

 

One good thing: the Guardians have the worst starter ERA in all of MLB at 6.58, and they look to be the AL's strongest Sox contender on paper.

 

Edited April 15, 2017 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

If Wright gives up 8 runs a game, he won't be in the rotation very long.

 

Talk to me on Nemorial Day.

[moonslav59]

If Wright gives up 8 runs a game, he won't be in the rotation very long.

 

 

He won't. Next game 7 IP 2 ER

[Kimmi]

Somebody do the math: if we are subtracting Sale's 2 starts, why not subtract Wright's and Porcello's one bad start each and show the new numbers?

 

 

Our rotation is going to be fine.

 

I am not worried about our rotation. Nor am I worried about our offense.

 

Nor am I worried about the team in general.

 

The Playoff Party Bus is still ready to go!

[Nick]

It's good thing we have Sale. He's a stud.

[Fisk]

It's good thing we have Sale. He's a stud.

 

Definitely the real deal. Not often we get a pitcher that pitches as advertised.

[moonslav59]

This is...

 

Chris Freakin' Sale

 

...we're talking about.

[Kimmi]

It's good thing we have Sale. He's a stud.

 

Sale has been awesome. Absolutely filthy. I am thrilled that he is on our team.

[Kimmi]

I was reading this morning about how Sale almost never shakes off his catcher, and how that contributes to his success. It's not only about the pace of play, but the idea of not overthinking on the mound. IMO, too many pitchers think too much on the mound, and it gets them in trouble.

 

A good catcher, like Leon or Vazquez, will know his pitcher well enough to know what pitches to call. Let the catcher do the thinking. That's his job.

[S5Dewey]

Sale is a nice bit of insurance that we got at a not-unreasonable price. I continually remind myself that playoff positions are often decided by one or two games over a 162 game season so EVERY game is important.

IMO adding Sale at the top of our rotation gives us an additional 8-10 wins. That's a huge advantage over our previous position when it comes to making the playoffs.

[S5Dewey]

I was reading this morning about how Sale almost never shakes off his catcher, and how that contributes to his success. It's not only about the pace of play, but the idea of not overthinking on the mound. IMO, too many pitchers think too much on the mound, and it gets them in trouble.

 

A good catcher, like Leon or Vazquez, will know his pitcher well enough to know what pitches to call. Let the catcher do the thinking. That's his job.

 

Another thing I like about Sale is that he's a "get the ball and throw it" kinda guy. That keeps the defense alert and ready on every pitch, which makes the defense better.

[Kimmi]

Sale is a nice bit of insurance that we got at a not-unreasonable price. I continually remind myself that playoff positions are often decided by one or two games over a 162 game season so EVERY game is important.

IMO adding Sale at the top of our rotation gives us an additional 8-10 wins. That's a huge advantage over our previous position when it comes to making the playoffs.

 

This is not to take anything away from Sale, but you are overestimating his win value to the team. He does give us an added advantage towards making the playoffs, no doubt. And every win counts. He's just not an additional 8-10 wins.

 

Also, the price for Sale is not unreasonable if you look at that trade alone. It was the Sale trade on top of the other trades that were already done that makes it an over the top move.

[Spudboy]

Sale has been awesome. Absolutely filthy. I am thrilled that he is on our team.

 

I have not seen this kind of dominant stuff in a Sox uni since Pedro.

 

Sale is very exciting to watch. With him on the mound a person does not have a chance to become bored.

Much like I was expecting from Price.

[Spudboy]

This is not to take anything away from Sale, but you are overestimating his win value to the team. He does give us an added advantage towards making the playoffs, no doubt. And every win counts. He's just not an additional 8-10 wins.

 

 

 

I agree with all of this. Moncada may become a big time player in MLB ( I have my doubts ) but even if he becomes a perennial all star, pitching like Sale is a rarity.

 

I don't think the Sox paid too much for his level of talent. Although time will tell, obviously.

[S5Dewey]

This is not to take anything away from Sale, but you are overestimating his win value to the team. He does give us an added advantage towards making the playoffs, no doubt. And every win counts. He's just not an additional 8-10 wins.

 

Also, the price for Sale is not unreasonable if you look at that trade alone. It was the Sale trade on top of the other trades that were already done that makes it an over the top move.

 

I know it sounds optimistic but picking up Sale is a HUGE swing for this team. I'll be surprised if Sale doesn't put up 16-18 wins this season. At the same time I would expect the pitcher he's "replacing" - our otherwise #5 - to be sub-.500 with 6-8 wins and a bunch of ND's. That's a net gain of 8-10 wins. It's what Moon talks about when he talks of building a staff from the top down.

[Maxbialystock]

Who cares if Sale is the greatest thing since sliced bread? This thread is about the rotation, and everybody except Sale stinks. The great Pomeranz now has an ERA of 5.23, which is about the same as ERod but way better than Porcello at 7.56 and Wright at 13.50.

[Maxbialystock]

He won't. Next game 7 IP 2 ER

 

That's tomorrow at 11:05 am isn't it? I'll tell you what: I wouldn't bet the farm on 7 innings from Wright.

[cp176]

Who cares if Sale is the greatest thing since sliced bread? This thread is about the rotation, and everybody except Sale stinks. The great Pomeranz now has an ERA of 5.23, which is about the same as ERod but way better than Porcello at 7.56 and Wright at 13.50.

 

I'm not going to defend Pomeranz when he struggles which he did a little today. I would say that he got pinched early and a couple of plays could have been made behind him and then who knows what might have happened but that is hindsight. Where the hell does your "great Pomeranz" s*** come from? I'm not above criticizing poor play but it only gets personal for me when someone has a bad attitude or just doesn't work. A 28 year old kid who cares and has some ability shouldn't have to be personally berated by anyone. Social media strikes again. thanks for stating some obvious numbers too. I'm sure the guys who posted them don't care at all. lol

[Nick]

Sale was a good get. He gives eight position players and a DH chance to win every time he pitches. With others, you have your fingers crossed.

[notin]

Who cares if Sale is the greatest thing since sliced bread? This thread is about the rotation, and everybody except Sale stinks. The great Pomeranz now has an ERA of 5.23, which is about the same as ERod but way better than Porcello at 7.56 and Wright at 13.50.

 

 

Can we let a couple of them get maybe 25 or so IP before we write them off?

[notin]

I know it sounds optimistic but picking up Sale is a HUGE swing for this team. I'll be surprised if Sale doesn't put up 16-18 wins this season. At the same time I would expect the pitcher he's "replacing" - our otherwise #5 - to be sub-.500 with 6-8 wins and a bunch of ND's. That's a net gain of 8-10 wins. It's what Moon talks about when he talks of building a staff from the top down.

 

Unfortunately it's not so simple when looking at the incredibly useless W-L record, because even pitchers with 6-8 wins have a bunch of no decisions that the Sox do win.

[Kimmi]

I have not seen this kind of dominant stuff in a Sox uni since Pedro.

 

Sale is very exciting to watch. With him on the mound a person does not have a chance to become bored.

Much like I was expecting from Price.

 

I agree. I have always been a fan of great pitching over great offense. I love to watch him pitch.

[Kimmi]

I agree with all of this. Moncada may become a big time player in MLB ( I have my doubts ) but even if he becomes a perennial all star, pitching like Sale is a rarity.

 

I don't think the Sox paid too much for his level of talent. Although time will tell, obviously.

 

As I've said before, I'd be more than okay with what we paid for Sale if we hadn't traded so many prospects before the Sale trade.

[moonslav59]

Who cares if Sale is the greatest thing since sliced bread? This thread is about the rotation, and everybody except Sale stinks. The great Pomeranz now has an ERA of 5.23, which is about the same as ERod but way better than Porcello at 7.56 and Wright at 13.50.

 

They don't "stink". They've just pitched like stink in small sample sizes.

[moonslav59]

That's tomorrow at 11:05 am isn't it? I'll tell you what: I wouldn't bet the farm on 7 innings from Wright.

 

Yeah, he might go 8.

[Kimmi]

I know it sounds optimistic but picking up Sale is a HUGE swing for this team. I'll be surprised if Sale doesn't put up 16-18 wins this season. At the same time I would expect the pitcher he's "replacing" - our otherwise #5 - to be sub-.500 with 6-8 wins and a bunch of ND's. That's a net gain of 8-10 wins. It's what Moon talks about when he talks of building a staff from the top down.

 

We'll just have to disagree on how many wins Sale adds to the team. I don't think it's a net gain of 8-10 wins.

[Kimmi]

Can we let a couple of them get maybe 25 or so IP before we write them off?

 

^^ This.