2017 Rotation Discussion

[cp176]

yup - just heard it again - Bucksnorts out with an injury. That gd shoulder program we have just keeps working its magic.lol

[Nick]

PHILADELPHIA -- In his second start as a Phillie, Clay Buchholz left with a right forearm strain with one out in the top of the third inning in Tuesday night's 14-4 loss against the Mets at Citizens Bank Park.

 

He left with the Phillies facing a 5-1 deficit with a runner on second, having allowed a three-run home run to Yoenis Cespedes in the first and two more runs in the second.

 

That inherited runner scored, and six earned runs were charged to Buchholz in 2 1/3 innings on eight hits, a walk and two strikeouts.

A drop in velocity in his first start in Cincinnati was a concern, but his velocity picked back up Tuesday. Even so, he left the game with a trainer by his side en route to the clubhouse.

 

I have tremendous respect for Clay B but we did the right thing by getting rid of his contract.

Edited April 12, 2017 by Nick

[Emp9]

Well, my idea of signing Clippard and trading scraps for KRod would have meant about this:

 

Financial cost:

$12.25M/2 Clippard ($6.125M towards luxury budget)

$13.5M/2 KRod ($5.7M towards luxury budget)

Total: $11.825M luxury cost

 

Kimbrel:$37M/3 ($10.75M luxury for 2 years then $12M for 2018)

 

 

Prospect cost:

 

Kimbrel: Margot, Guerra, Allen, Asuaje

 

KRod: The equivalent of Javier Betancourt (maybe Wendell Rijo or Carlos Asuaje?)

 

 

 

Well, Andrew Miller is better than both Kimbrel and KRod, and would've been cheaper than Kimbrel, plus zero prospects lost. This post isn't in hindsight. I've always thought it was a mistake to not sign FA A. Miller. I also try not to judge any player this early in a season. KRod's velocity has seen a steep decline, does he have what Koji had to be successful? 'cause he's going to need it. I want to give Kimbrel more time before I judge. But I agree and never loved the Kimbrel trade. Even a far away prospect along w/ Kimbrel for what we gave up would have been much nicer.

[moonslav59]

Well, Andrew Miller is better than both Kimbrel and KRod, and would've been cheaper than Kimbrel, plus zero prospects lost. This post isn't in hindsight. I've always thought it was a mistake to not sign FA A. Miller. I also try not to judge any player this early in a season. KRod's velocity has seen a steep decline, does he have what Koji had to be successful? 'cause he's going to need it. I want to give Kimbrel more time before I judge. But I agree and never loved the Kimbrel trade. Even a far away prospect along w/ Kimbrel for what we gave up would have been much nicer.

 

I wanted Miller back as well.

 

KRod posted a better WHIP than his career last year, so that's a sign he's done well converting from power to finesse.

 

Since 2015, his WHIP has been 1.02, which ranks 15th out of 79 RP'ers with 110+ IP since then. His WHIP was at 1.16 before the 2015 season.

 

(Note: while his K rate slipped, it was still at 8.0 last year.)

 

In all fairness, Clippard did worse than his career norm last year.

[Jack Flap]

PHILADELPHIA -- In his second start as a Phillie, Clay Buchholz left with a right forearm strain with one out in the top of the third inning in Tuesday night's 14-4 loss against the Mets at Citizens Bank Park.

 

He left with the Phillies facing a 5-1 deficit with a runner on second, having allowed a three-run home run to Yoenis Cespedes in the first and two more runs in the second.

 

That inherited runner scored, and six earned runs were charged to Buchholz in 2 1/3 innings on eight hits, a walk and two strikeouts.

A drop in velocity in his first start in Cincinnati was a concern, but his velocity picked back up Tuesday. Even so, he left the game with a trainer by his side en route to the clubhouse.

 

I have tremendous respect for Clay B but we did the right thing by getting rid of his contract.

 

 

Yeah, something tells me that trade isn't going to come back to bite us too badly. Also, I have to say that the Sale trade looks better all the time...if we don't make that deal, our current rotation is Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright, Pomeranz, and ???.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, something tells me that trade isn't going to come back to bite us too badly. Also, I have to say that the Sale trade looks better all the time...if we don't make that deal, our current rotation is Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright, Pomeranz, and ???.

 

Kendrick!

 

I'm almost always for building up the rotation from the top or near the top, instead of signing 5th starters, and although I liked our rotation without Sale and keeping Buch, you just can't pass on a once in a decade chance to trade for a cost- controlled super stud starter like ...

 

Chris Freakin' Sale!

[jacksonianmarch]

Clay Buchholz is getting lit up

[S5Dewey]

Clay Buchholz is getting lit up

 

A GM has to know what he's getting when he signs Buch - a "feast or famine" pitcher. A guy with great stuff when he's healthy but he's only healthy about half of the year.

 

GM's have always been hoping that he'd remain healthy for an entire year but since he has to be healthy during the first part of the year in order to be healthy for the entire year.... things aren't looking too good for the Phil's at the moment. :-(

 

I was torn about trading him. I'll admit, I wanted to keep him of only for the insurance of knowing that we had a pitcher with that kind of stuff for $13M. OTOH, I also wanted to get rid of him because of the LT implications and the uncertainty of when his career would be over.

 

My biggest gripe about the trade is that we didn't get enough for him. We traded away a guy with TOR stuff for a Low-A 2nd baseman when our minors are neck-deep in second-basemen.

[Nick]

A GM has to know what he's getting when he signs Buch - a "feast or famine" pitcher. A guy with great stuff when he's healthy but he's only healthy about half of the year.

 

GM's have always been hoping that he'd remain healthy for an entire year but since he has to be healthy during the first part of the year in order to be healthy for the entire year.... things aren't looking too good for the Phil's at the moment. :-(

 

I was torn about trading him. I'll admit, I wanted to keep him of only for the insurance of knowing that we had a pitcher with that kind of stuff for $13M. OTOH, I also wanted to get rid of him because of the LT implications and the uncertainty of when his career would be over.

 

My biggest gripe about the trade is that we didn't get enough for him. We traded away a guy with TOR stuff for a Low-A 2nd baseman when our minors are neck-deep in second-basemen.

 

As you said, the biggest thing about the trade was getting rid of $12.5M salary, not what we got back in a player.

[jacksonianmarch]

Everyone talks about great stuff. Clay no longer has great stuff. His FIP last year was over 5. His fastball has been sitting at the 92 mark for years after his "great stuff" days of sitting 94. This year, his fastball is sitting 90 and he's hurt. DD should get a tremendous amount of credit for this move. He got a warm body in return and dumped his salary to a team that he cannot hurt you on if he experiences a career rennaissance. Also, he saved a bit of money without having to use the opt out.

[moonslav59]

Everyone talks about great stuff. Clay no longer has great stuff. His FIP last year was over 5. His fastball has been sitting at the 92 mark for years after his "great stuff" days of sitting 94. This year, his fastball is sitting 90 and he's hurt. DD should get a tremendous amount of credit for this move. He got a warm body in return and dumped his salary to a team that he cannot hurt you on if he experiences a career rennaissance. Also, he saved a bit of money without having to use the opt out.

 

I always thought Buch's breaking ball was his best pitch, but having a faster fastball certainly helped.

[moonslav59]

As you said, the biggest thing about the trade was getting rid of $12.5M salary, not what we got back in a player.

 

Ultimately, who we get mid season will be the guy we traded Buch (and whoever else we end up trading) for.

[Nick]

Ultimately, who we get mid season will be the guy we traded Buch (and whoever else we end up trading) for.

 

Very good point.....

[Fisk]

I always thought Buch's breaking ball was his best pitch, but having a faster fastball certainly helped.

 

His breaking stuff made him a very good pitcher when he was on one of his hot streaks.

[Kimmi]

Well, my idea of signing Clippard and trading scraps for KRod would have meant about this:

 

Financial cost:

$12.25M/2 Clippard ($6.125M towards luxury budget)

$13.5M/2 KRod ($5.7M towards luxury budget)

Total: $11.825M luxury cost

 

Kimbrel:$37M/3 ($10.75M luxury for 2 years then $12M for 2018)

 

 

Prospect cost:

 

Kimbrel: Margot, Guerra, Allen, Asuaje

 

KRod: The equivalent of Javier Betancourt (maybe Wendell Rijo or Carlos Asuaje?)

 

 

 

I was thinking more in terms of the difference in production and saves of a top closer versus a good closer. I realize that 'saves' are not a good stat by which to measure a reliever, but the bottom line is whether the closer was able to save the game or not. A good closer may not be as 'flashy' in getting the job done as a top closer, but a good closer will still save the vast majority of games.

 

In short, to me it doesn't make much sense to pay a high price to get a 'top' closer when you can get virtually the same amount of production for a much cheaper price. Use the money and/or prospects in other areas.

[Nick]

I was thinking more in terms of the difference in production and saves of a top closer versus a good closer. I realize that 'saves' are not a good stat by which to measure a reliever, but the bottom line is whether the closer was able to save the game or not. A good closer may not be as 'flashy' in getting the job done as a top closer, but a good closer will still save the vast majority of games.

 

In short, to me it doesn't make much sense to pay a high price to get a 'top' closer when you can get virtually the same amount of production for a much cheaper price. Use the money and/or prospects in other areas.

 

I also don't understand the mentality of just having one pitcher closing the game EVERY TIME. If you need a strike out, say bases loaded with one out in the 8th, why not bring in Kimbrel to strike out a batter? I hate the idea of saving one pitcher for last inning.

Edited April 12, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I was thinking more in terms of the difference in production and saves of a top closer versus a good closer. I realize that 'saves' are not a good stat by which to measure a reliever, but the bottom line is whether the closer was able to save the game or not. A good closer may not be as 'flashy' in getting the job done as a top closer, but a good closer will still save the vast majority of games.

 

In short, to me it doesn't make much sense to pay a high price to get a 'top' closer when you can get virtually the same amount of production for a much cheaper price. Use the money and/or prospects in other areas.

 

That was a big part of "Moneyball" as the A's continually created closers from their system, and then they traded them over and over again.

 

They realized they could use the over-valuing of closers to their benefit.

 

Foulke was a big part of our ring as was Papelbon and Uehara, but paying big money and giving up prospects was overkill.

[mvp 78]

That was a big part of "Moneyball" as the A's continually created closers from their system, and then they traded them over and over again.

 

They realized they could use the over-valuing of closers to their benefit.

 

Foulke was a big part of our ring as was Papelbon and Uehara, but paying big money and giving up prospects was overkill.

 

And no rings because "baseball is just random" or whatever nonsense Beane yells before he beats up a Coke machine in the book.

[moonslav59]

And no rings because "baseball is just random" or whatever nonsense Beane yells before he beats up a Coke machine in the book.

 

LOL!

 

I read the book, too. It was better than the movie as is usually the case.

 

It's hard to argue against the importance of having a great closer, especially since our three rings all came with stellar closer closer performances throughout each season and playoff cycle.

 

I love having a lights out closer, and I really do think Kimbrel was one of the best one could ever expect to get. I'm hopeful he gives us another 2 years of great closer production.

 

My beef with the trade was about paying FA money and giving up top prospects. I was OK with one or the other but not both.

[mvp 78]

Billy Beane is no Theo Epstein. He may even not be as good as Ben Cherington or Dave Dombrowski (WS appearances for Marlins and Tigers). Beane has only won 1 playoff series ever. Sad!

 

I'm glad he didn't take a job with the Sox.

[Kimmi]

I also don't understand the mentality of just having one pitcher closing the game EVERY TIME. If you need a strike out, say bases loaded with one out in the 8th, why not bring in Kimbrel to strike out a batter? I hate the idea of saving one pitcher for last inning.

 

On this we agree. Sometimes the real save situation occurs in the 7th or 8th inning. It seems kind of pointless to have a 'lesser' pitcher come in and blow the game in the 8th, while your best reliever is sitting on the bench waiting for a save situation that never comes.

 

That said, there is the issue with having your closer warming up and ready to go in 8th inning in case he's needed.

[cp176]

A great deal of time is spent here talking about developing young pitching. i agree that we need to do a better job of it but Price and Wright are over 30. Sale, Porcello, Rodriguez, and Pomeranz are all 28 or younger. That is not bad. We may not have developed them but somehow we got them. Over the years, we have been very successful getting it done in a variety of ways. We have been able to do what most teams just dream about. I like the youth overall of our starting core. Personally, I don't care where they come from or how we get them - as long as we get them.

[Fisk]

A great deal of time is spent here talking about developing young pitching. i agree that we need to do a better job of it but Price and Wright are over 30. Sale, Porcello, Rodriguez, and Pomeranz are all 28 or younger. That is not bad. We may not have developed them but somehow we got them. Over the years, we have been very successful getting it done in a variety of ways. We have been able to do what most teams just dream about. I like the youth overall of our starting core. Personally, I don't care where they come from or how we get them - as long as we get them.

 

Yes we have very good young pitching right now, but the idea of developing it is so we don't have to overpay for it.

[a700hitter]

Yes we have very good young pitching right now, but the idea of developing it is so we don't have to overpay for it.

The organization's record of developing young pitching has been very bad.

[cp176]

Yes we have very good young pitching right now, but the idea of developing it is so we don't have to overpay for it.

 

I understand and certainly respect this point of view. Somewhere along the line you really are going get what you pay for. i don't really care where the pitching comes from as long as we have it. Based on the historical track record of the franchise in general, they are going to get it. if we overpay for something, I hope it is pitching. We all know that we will be overpaying for something. good thing we can afford it.

[Fisk]

I understand and certainly respect this point of view. Somewhere along the line you really are going get what you pay for. i don't really care where the pitching comes from as long as we have it. Based on the historical track record of the franchise in general, they are going to get it. if we overpay for something, I hope it is pitching. We all know that we will be overpaying for something. good thing we can afford it.

I don't want to have to give up the Moncadas, Kopechs, Espinozas and Margots to get it, that's all I'm saying. If we can develop within we hold onto all those prospects.

[a700hitter]

I don't want to have to give up the Moncadas, Kopechs, Espinozas and Margots to get it, that's all I'm saying. If we can develop within we hold onto all those prospects.

Margot was blocked by the Killer B's. Moncada seems to be an airhead and hasn't cracked the little league lineup of the White Sox, and he is blocked by Pedroia with the Red Sox. Kopech and Espinoza are a few years off, and they are far from locks to make it big.

[Fisk]

Margot was blocked by the Killer B's. Moncada seems to be an airhead and hasn't cracked the little league lineup of the White Sox, and he is blocked by Pedroia with the Red Sox. Kopech and Espinoza are a few years off, and they are far from locks to make it big.

I understand all that, but they are still assets we have that can make the team better. It would also be nice to have Espinoza and Kopech around in 3 years when Sale and Porcello become free agents.

[a700hitter]

I understand all that, but they are still assets we have that can make the team better. It would also be nice to have Espinoza and Kopech around in 3 years when Sale and Porcello become free agents.

As assets they were put to good use to get Sale, and that did make the team better.

[Fisk]

As assets they were put to good use to get Sale, and that did make the team better.

But they would have more assets to use.