2017 Rotation Discussion

[notin]

I don't think it's a big leap at all to think the Sox would have made the post season had Cherington remained the GM. He would have made some moves for pitching. He would have traded some of his prospects to do so. Anyone can sign a free agent by outbidding the nearest opponent by $37 million.

 

I'm not sure going after Price was Cherington's style either, but with Henry having a change of heart and opening up his wallet, who knows what Cherington would have done? However, I am pretty confident that Cherington felt that the time was right to 'go for it'. He just wouldn't have gone for it to the extent that Dombrowski did.

 

I'm not so sure. Granted wr don't have the same lengthy history with Cherington that we had with Epstein, but it looked alot like he wanted to build the team internally from the farm with his guys. Even when he made an offer for Hamels, it was reportedly all MLB guys with no intriguing top name prospects. I do wonder what it was he offered, but I have always been confident Allen Craig was involved. (To be fair, this was before Craig was worthless.)

 

I like Cherington too. But when did he ever give us the indication he would deal to flight prospects in a blockbuster? The closest he came was dealing Jose Iglesias. .

[moonslav59]

I think Cherrington would have made a big blockbuster. He might have been forced to, if he didn't want to.

 

I think he would have made the Sale trade, or one like it, unless he had already made a big trade before Sale became available.

 

I don't think he'd have made the Pom or Kimbrel trades. I do think he'd have signed a big pitcher but maybe not Price.

[moonslav59]

The closest he came was dealing Jose Iglesias.

 

He also trade de la Rosa and Webster for Wade Miley. (Not really top flight, but still...)

[a700hitter]

I think Cherrington would have made a big blockbuster. He might have been forced to, if he didn't want to.

 

I think he would have made the Sale trade, or one like it, unless he had already made a big trade before Sale became available.

 

I don't think he'd have made the Pom or Kimbrel trades. I do think he'd have signed a big pitcher but maybe not Price.

We will never know. All that we have is his record.

[Kimmi]

I'm not so sure. Granted wr don't have the same lengthy history with Cherington that we had with Epstein, but it looked alot like he wanted to build the team internally from the farm with his guys. Even when he made an offer for Hamels, it was reportedly all MLB guys with no intriguing top name prospects. I do wonder what it was he offered, but I have always been confident Allen Craig was involved. (To be fair, this was before Craig was worthless.)

 

I like Cherington too. But when did he ever give us the indication he would deal to flight prospects in a blockbuster? The closest he came was dealing Jose Iglesias. .

 

Cherington had a 5 year plan or long term vision, similar to what Theo did with the Cubs, but not as extreme. He was building a strong farm while trying to stay competitive. In 2013, he did a great job of adding pieces without sacrificing the farm. In 2014 and 2015, not so much.

 

During Cherington's years here, the young core and the team as a whole were not yet at the place where it was time to 'go for it'. When Dombrowski took over, it was time. Cherington was not given the opportunity to see his vision come to fruition. Henry became impatient and panicked. Dombrowski is reaping the benefits of Theo's and Cherington's hard work.

 

Had Cherington been given the opportunity, I am positive that he would have made some moves and am positive that the team would have made the playoffs. I am also positive that we would not be falling of the cliff in 3-4 years.

 

No, I am not a fan of Dombrowski's team building philosophy. That said, if we win a championship or two in the next 3 years, I will happily take back everything I said.

[Kimmi]

I think Cherrington would have made a big blockbuster. He might have been forced to, if he didn't want to.

 

I think he would have made the Sale trade, or one like it, unless he had already made a big trade before Sale became available.

 

I don't think he'd have made the Pom or Kimbrel trades. I do think he'd have signed a big pitcher but maybe not Price.

 

^^This

[Kimmi]

We will never know. All that we have is his record.

 

The record of a World Series Championship in 4 years? And honestly, 2012 does not even count.

 

Also, this is still more Cherington's team than it is Dombrowski's.

[Bellhorn04]

Dombrowski is reaping the benefits of Theo's and Cherington's hard work.

 

What 'hard work' did Ben do, really?

[Nick]

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/04/chris_sales_secret_weapon_on_t.html#incart_2box

 

Good write up about Sale on him changing up speeds on fastballs, calls it Batting Practice fastball.

[moonslav59]

We will never know. All that we have is his record.

 

There's just no way he could have even kept everybody. There was no room for everybody to make the 40 man roster or to have a chance at winning a FT job. He had to trade somebody eventually.

[Nick]

We do know that when Cherington pulled the 'trigger', he failed. Pablo and Hanley's contracts will hamstring us for another 3 years.

 

And the biggest fail was NOT signing Lester. THAT led to Price signing by DD.

 

I'm not crazy about Kimbrel signing but have you watched the games? It's critical to have a closer. He should have came in and pitched with two runners on in the 8th inning game the other day. Walking 4 batters and losing the lead forcing a tie game is the exact time when you bring in your closer to strike out a batter and keep the game tied.

 

Kimbrel faced 6 batters yesterday. What the f*** is difference had he come in with 2 outs in the 8th? Go ahead and put a 6 batter limit if you must. If he faces more than 6 batters to get 4 outs, well he must not have it anyway and needs to come out or we've already lost the game.

 

Obviously JF is not a poker player and has no idea about odds.

 

Just ask Baltimore fans how they feel about 'saving' their closer.

Edited April 10, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

We do know that when Cherington pulled the 'trigger', he failed. Pablo and Hanley's contracts will hamstring us for another 3 years.

 

And the biggest fail was NOT signing Lester. THAT led to Price signing by DD.

 

I'm not crazy about Kimbrel signing but have you watched the games? It's critical to have a closer. He should have came in and pitched with two runners on in the 8th inning game the other day. Walking 4 batters and losing the lead forcing a tie game is the exact time when you bring in your closer to strike out a batter and keep the game tied.

 

Kimbrel faced 6 batters yesterday. What the f*** is difference had he come in with 2 outs in the 8th? Go ahead and put a 6 batter limit if you must.

 

Just ask Baltimore fans how they feel about 'saving' their closer.

 

If it was a Kimbrel signing, I'd have been fine with it, but it was like a signing where we lost 4 prospects.

 

It was a trade for a FA market salary closer.

 

Yes, Cerry failed with his FA signings- just like Theo did near the end, and how DD apparently has, so far.

[Kimmi]

What 'hard work' did Ben do, really?

 

He drafted Benintendi and he acquired Leon. I could go on, but that alone is more than what Dombrowski has done in building the current team. IMO

[Kimmi]

We do know that when Cherington pulled the 'trigger', he failed. Pablo and Hanley's contracts will hamstring us for another 3 years.

 

And the biggest fail was NOT signing Lester. THAT led to Price signing by DD.

 

Two words: Larry Lucchino

[Bellhorn04]

Two words: Larry Lucchino

 

If it was Lucchino that made all the bad moves, Henry probably wouldn't have replaced Ben.

[moonslav59]

He drafted Benintendi and he acquired Leon. I could go on, but that alone is more than what Dombrowski has done in building the current team. IMO

 

It's still early to judge DD moves, but people sure judged Ben quickly.

[Nick]

He drafted Benintendi and he acquired Leon. I could go on, but that alone is more than what Dombrowski has done in building the current team. IMO

 

It was really hard to pick Beni with a 7th pick....And who drafted Ball with a 7th pick?

 

How about DD picking up Groome with the 12th pick and signing him? It's way too early to evaluate DD's first draft pick.

[Bellhorn04]

It's still early to judge DD moves, but people sure judged Ben quickly.

 

I don't see any difference. We've been hearing about DD's 2021 cliff for months.

[Nick]

I don't see any difference. We've been hearing about DD's 2021 cliff for months.

 

Thelma and Louise, Part II, directed by Kimmi, now in production.

[moonslav59]

I don't see any difference. We've been hearing about DD's 2021 cliff for months.

 

True. The judging has begun already.

 

There's a lot to be judged, and I gave my opinions on many of the moves, but I have tried hard not to make any judgments on DD as a whole. Many of his moves may take years to judge.

 

Here are his significant moves so far:

 

Trades:

Kimbrel for Margot, Guerra, Allen & Asuaje

C Smith & R Elias for Miley & J Aro

A Hill for W Rijo & AA Wilkerson

B Ziegler for L Basabe & J Almonte

Pomeranz for Espinoza

Abad for P Light

C Sale for Moncada, Kopech, L Basabe & V Diaz

T Thornburg for T Shaw, M Dubon, Pennington

J Tobias for C Buchholz

 

Signings:

C Young

D Price

M Moreland

 

[mvp 78]

The only overpays would be Kimbrel, Pomeranz and Thornburg. You can make a case for the Kimbrel overpay and Pomeranz was just the price of doing business at the trade deadline. Including Dubon in the Thornburg trade makes little sense to me. Not that Dubon is a deal breaker, but why keep draining the swamp?

[Jack Flap]

The only overpays would be Kimbrel, Pomeranz and Thornburg. You can make a case for the Kimbrel overpay and Pomeranz was just the price of doing business at the trade deadline. Including Dubon in the Thornburg trade makes little sense to me. Not that Dubon is a deal breaker, but why keep draining the swamp?

 

Well that, and the fact that Pomeranz at this point in his career looks like an injury-prone mediocrity who had one good half-season in San Diego at age 27. (I'd love for him to prove otherwise, but...)

[Nick]

Well that, and the fact that Pomeranz at this point in his career looks like an injury-prone mediocrity who had one good half-season in San Diego at age 27. (I'd love for him to prove otherwise, but...)

 

There's always a risk trying to identify pitchers/players on the uptick.

 

I'm sure his first half performance along with team control for additional two years had something to do with it.

 

We made that deal due to epic failure at the time from Clay B, Kelly, E Rod and Wright injury.....we were NOT trading from position of strength. Are you going to put all THAT on DD?

[moonslav59]

Since most of these deals involved prospects, the jury will be out of some time.

 

However, here's my view on how well the players we have acquired have met expectations (or not)

 

Here are his significant moves so far (The jury is till out!):

 

(Grade is only for how well the player(s) we obtained has done- not how well the players we gave up have done or project to do.)

 

Trades:

Kimbrel for Margot, Guerra, Allen & Asuaje Kimbrel has been hurt and dropped in effectiveness: D

C Smith & R Elias for Miley & J Aro Smith has been out hurt and Elias disappeared: F

A Hill for W Rijo & AA Wilkerson Hill sucked: F

B Ziegler for L Basabe & J Almonte Ziegler was crucial: A

Pomeranz for Espinoza Pom was damaged good: D-

Abad for P Light Underperformed on expectations: C-

 

C Sale for Moncada, Kopech, L Basabe & V Diaz Looking great, so far! A+

T Thornburg for T Shaw, M Dubon, Pennington On the DL: F

J Tobias for C Buchholz: No expectations here: Incomplete

 

Signings:

C Young Great signing, but was hurt for part of 2016: B+

D Price Underperformed and now is hurt: D+

M Moreland So, so: C

 

(Note" these are not definitive grades. It is way too early to judge.)

 

Draft:

12 Groome (looks great)

51 Chatham (looks good)

88 S Anderson (Unknown)

118 Dalbec (looks promising)

Edited April 10, 2017 by moonslav59

[Jack Flap]

There's always a risk trying to identify pitchers/players on the uptick.

I'm familiar with the arguments in favor of the trade, but I would argue the price we paid was not commensurate with the risk.

 

We made that deal due to epic failure at the time from Clay B, Kelly, E Rod and Wright injury.....we were NOT trading from position of strength. Are you going to put all THAT on DD?

 

Yeah, how could he have known Buch and Kelly would be unreliable? Also, Wright was healthy at the time of the trade, for whatever that's worth.

 

Dombrowski assembled the 2016 rotation (and the depth options behind it), so of course he bears some measure of responsibility for the fact that it was coming apart at the seams by midseason. Why should he not?

 

And sure, we were not in a position of strength, but I don't think that makes any trade we were able to pull off a good one. Make deals out of desperation and you're going to get taken advantage of, which is what all evidence to date would suggest happened.

Edited April 10, 2017 by Jack Flap

[Nick]

I'm familiar with the arguments in favor of the trade, but I would argue the price we paid was not commensurate with the risk.

 

 

 

Yeah, how could he have known Buch and Kelly would be unreliable? Also, Wright was healthy at the time of the trade, for whatever that's worth.

 

Dombrowski assembled the 2016 rotation (and the depth options behind it), so of course he bears some measure of responsibility for the fact that it was coming apart at the seams by midseason. Why should he not?

 

And sure, we were not in a position of strength, but I don't think that makes any trade we were able to pull off a good one. Make deals out of desperation and you're going to get taken advantage of, which is what all evidence to date would suggest happened.

 

DD did everything he could to salvage Ortiz' last season. He got us a Division title after last place finishes back to back. I just don't get the 'hatred' for this guy.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think there's any hatred for DD. Sox fans are a tough crowd no matter who the GM is.

[Jack Flap]

I don't 'hate' DD, either...I just don't think Pomeranz/Espinoza was a good trade. Also not a fan of the Kimbrel deal, though I think it's less egregious; I'm fine with what we gave to get Sale and believe he'll be worth it, and I'm not losing sleep over the cost of Smith, Thornburg, Hill, or any of the other smaller moves. The ultimate consequences of all of these transactions, of course, remains to be seen.

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski assembled the 2016 rotation (and the depth options behind it), so of course he bears some measure of responsibility for the fact that it was coming apart at the seams by midseason. Why should he not?

 

We ended up using O'Sullivan for 4 starts beginning on May 7th.

 

While I do think DD was ultimately responsible for building starter depth, it's hard to blame a GM for having to go with your 9th or 10th starter in early May. Here's how I had our starter depth chart on opening day:

1) Price

2) Porcello

3) ERod (Started first game may 31st)

4) Buch (Had an ERA of 6.24 on June 1st)

5) Kelly (Lost his starting job after June 1st with an 8.46 ERA & missed 3 starts in APR)

6) Wright (Solid off the bench)

7) Elias (Started his only game June 17th.)

8) Owens (Started 3 games by May 5th but had 13 BBs & 3 HRs in 12.1 IP)

9) Johnson (Had the heebie-Geebies and never made it to the big stage.)

10) O'Sullivan (Started 4 games.)

 

1st half numbers:

11-2 Porcello 3.66 (18 GS)

10-5 Wright 2.68 (17)

9-6 Price 4.34 (19)

3-9 Buch 5.91 (13)

2-0 Kelly 8.46 (6)

1-3 ERod 8.59 (6)

2-0 O'Sullivan 6.75 (4)

0-0 Owens 5.11 (3)

0-1 Elias 15.88 (1)

 

[Spudboy]

I'm familiar with the arguments in favor of the trade, but I would argue the price we paid was not commensurate with the risk.

 

 

 

Yeah, how could he have known Buch and Kelly would be unreliable? Also, Wright was healthy at the time of the trade, for whatever that's worth.

 

Dombrowski assembled the 2016 rotation (and the depth options behind it), so of course he bears some measure of responsibility for the fact that it was coming apart at the seams by midseason. Why should he not?

 

And sure, we were not in a position of strength, but I don't think that makes any trade we were able to pull off a good one. Make deals out of desperation and you're going to get taken advantage of, which is what all evidence to date would suggest happened.

 

You need to post more often.