Baseball America Top 100

[notin]

No thread on this?

 

Sox had 3 names (Benintendi #1, Devers #18, Groome #43). Travis did not make the list. Former prospects inclded Moncada, Kopech, and Margot. I only looked quickly but didn't see Guerra, Dubon, or Basabe.

 

Still having 3 on the list is impressive after all the deals, even though it's really two since Benintendi isn't going to be in the minors anymore (hopefully).

 

Also since the list, whole a nice conversation piece, doesn't mean much. If history is any indication, only about 10 players on this list will be all stars and only another 30-ish will be regular starters. And another 30 will never make MLB at all beyond the occasional call up. ( The remaining 30 will be bench players or middle relievers at their peak...)

[mvp 78]

Baseball Prospectus has those guys at 3, 13 and 29.

[moonslav59]

Baseball America's Top 100 Sox and ex-Sox:

 

1. Benintendi

2. Moncada

18. Devers

21. Espinoza

24. Margot

32. Kopech

43. Groome

 

Wow! 5 Red Sox products in the top 24. That's 1 out of every 5!

 

7 in the top 43. That's just about 1 in 6!

[harmony]

An interesting analysis of surplus value of each team's Baseball America Top 100 prospects:

 

http://theprocessreport.net/the-top-100s-are-coming-the-top-100s-are-coming/

[moonslav59]

An interesting analysis of surplus value of each team's Baseball America Top 100 prospects:

 

http://theprocessreport.net/the-top-100s-are-coming-the-top-100s-are-coming/

 

We have the highest surplus value and the highest mean value, but I'm not sure what that all means.

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure what that all means.

 

Thank you for finally coming to terms with this.

[moonslav59]

thank you for finally coming to terms with this.

 

lol.

 

[S5Dewey]

We have the highest surplus value and the highest mean value, but I'm not sure what that all means.

 

Heck, I guess I don't even know how to read it! It looks to me like we have the highest Max and the highest Mean, but if our Stats Guru can't decipher it I sure can't!

[cp176]

Heck, I guess I don't even know how to read it! It looks to me like we have the highest Max and the highest Mean, but if our Stats Guru can't decipher it I sure can't!

 

Hie is a stat guru in training! lol

 

I get to see the stat guru tomorrow - the tax man

[moonslav59]

Heck, I guess I don't even know how to read it! It looks to me like we have the highest Max and the highest Mean, but if our Stats Guru can't decipher it I sure can't!

 

I guess we were dinged for not having many prospects, in case the great ones we have don't work out- strength in numbers.

 

I'll take quality over quantity any day.

 

[S5Dewey]

Hie is a stat guru in training! lol

 

I get to see the stat guru tomorrow - the tax man

 

Ugh. Good luck with that. Are you going to be able to get there? I've got 18" of new snow in my driveway (I just measured it) and it's supposed to snow for 5 more hours.

[cp176]

Ugh. Good luck with that. Are you going to be able to get there? I've got 18" of new snow in my driveway (I just measured it) and it's supposed to snow for 5 more hours.

 

I had no idea what I was getting myself into when I came home. We got about 17 down here. We can get out but not much is going on. Stay safe up there.

[a700hitter]

Ugh. Good luck with that. Are you going to be able to get there? I've got 18" of new snow in my driveway (I just measured it) and it's supposed to snow for 5 more hours.

It missed Boston today.

[harmony]

We have the highest surplus value and the highest mean value, but I'm not sure what that all means.

The Red Sox naturally have the highest surplus value on an individual player -- top-ranked Andrew Benintendi -- and a high mean because their four ranked players are highly ranked.

 

However, with relatively few ranked players, the Red Sox have a higher risk factor because they're spreading the risk across fewer players.

[moonslav59]

Travis did not make the list. Former prospects inclded Moncada, Kopech, and Margot. I only looked quickly but didn't see Guerra, Dubon, or Basabe.

 

You missed Espi at #21.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox naturally have the highest surplus value on an individual player -- top-ranked Andrew Benintendi -- and a high mean because their four ranked players are highly ranked.

 

However, with relatively few ranked players, the Red Sox have a higher risk factor because they're spreading the risk across fewer players.

 

Like I said, I'll take quality over quantity. According to this:

 

http://theprocessreport.net/the-top-...0s-are-coming/

 

Beni has a 83% chance of a WAR>3.0

 

Devers has a 74% chance.

 

Groome has a 59% chance.

 

 

[harmony]

Like I said, I'll take quality over quantity. According to this:

 

http://theprocessreport.net/the-top-...0s-are-coming/

 

Beni has a 83% chance of a WAR>3.0

 

Devers has a 74% chance.

 

Groome has a 59% chance.

To be clear, those of the chances of each player posting at least 3 WAR over the six years of team control.

 

Andrew Benintendi falls into a group that averages a combined 15.3 WAR over six seasons, Rafael Devers in a group that averages 13.0 WAR over six seasons and Jason Groome in a group that averages 6.4 WAR over six seasons.

[jacksonianmarch]

Does it really matter if they are former prospects? Regardless, Benintendi shouldn't even be on the list. He finished the yr in Boston as a starter and if it wasn't for injury, he'd have exhausted his rookie status. Same could be said for Aaron Judge.

[moonslav59]

Does it really matter if they are former prospects? Regardless, Benintendi shouldn't even be on the list. He finished the yr in Boston as a starter and if it wasn't for injury, he'd have exhausted his rookie status. Same could be said for Aaron Judge.

 

I'm okay with the criteria. There has to be a cut-off somewhere.

[notin]

Does it really matter if they are former prospects? Regardless, Benintendi shouldn't even be on the list. He finished the yr in Boston as a starter and if it wasn't for injury, he'd have exhausted his rookie status. Same could be said for Aaron Judge.

 

They seem to have some sort of hard cut off for MLB games or service. I'm fine eith it, as long as its the same everywhere.

 

What I don't like is when some 30 plus year old Japanese player gets posted or a 30 plus year old Cuban defects and gets ranked by BA..

[harmony]

They seem to have some sort of hard cut off for MLB games or service. I'm fine eith it, as long as its the same everywhere.

 

What I don't like is when some 30 plus year old Japanese player gets posted or a 30 plus year old Cuban defects and gets ranked by BA..

Daisuke Matsuzaka was Baseball America's top-ranked prospect as a 26-year-old rookie in 2007 while Rusney Castillo was BA's 21st-ranked prospect as a 27-year-old rookie in 2015.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2007/263445.html

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/2015-top-100-prospects/

[Station 13]

All eyes on Devers now.

[Hugh2]

They seem to have some sort of hard cut off for MLB games or service. I'm fine eith it, as long as its the same everywhere.

 

What I don't like is when some 30 plus year old Japanese player gets posted or a 30 plus year old Cuban defects and gets ranked by BA..

 

I have a hard time accepting an older player from another league as a prospect too, but I guess it all boils down to what your definition of a prospect is. A player without any MLB experience carries some level of "prospectidum" Whether they are 19, or 26 and played in Cuba.

 

In terms of Benintendi being a prospect it all comes down to at bats. If you're a young Milber who gets a cup of coffee in August but return to AAA the following year and generally are unproven you are still a prospect. While I'd consider Benintendi more proven than THAT he's still to some degree, small or large, unproven. I know different scouting body's have different measures of what a prospect is but by all means Benintendi is very close to not being one.

[moonslav59]

I have a hard time accepting an older player from another league as a prospect too, but I guess it all boils down to what your definition of a prospect is. A player without any MLB experience carries some level of "prospectidum" Whether they are 19, or 26 and played in Cuba.

 

One could argue those players that played 4 years of college are less prospects than a raw kid out of high school.

 

The line has to be drawn somewhere, and we as fans, can make adjustments on our own based on age, and amount of organized and professional ball.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I have a hard time accepting an older player from another league as a prospect too, but I guess it all boils down to what your definition of a prospect is. A player without any MLB experience carries some level of "prospectidum" Whether they are 19, or 26 and played in Cuba.

 

In terms of Benintendi being a prospect it all comes down to at bats. If you're a young Milber who gets a cup of coffee in August but return to AAA the following year and generally are unproven you are still a prospect. While I'd consider Benintendi more proven than THAT he's still to some degree, small or large, unproven. I know different scouting body's have different measures of what a prospect is but by all means Benintendi is very close to not being one.

 

I feel the same way about Benintendi as I did about Nomar after seeing him come up in late '96. The only thing that is going to stop this kid from being an all-star is injury. That swing is as good as it gets.

[sk7326]

A team like Boston only really needs to focus on quality. They can source "worker bees" with money and mid-level prospects. You keep the stars. Devers is tracking, and Benintendi sure flashed a ton of promise to that end.

[sk7326]

Daisuke Matsuzaka was Baseball America's top-ranked prospect as a 26-year-old rookie in 2007 while Rusney Castillo was BA's 21st-ranked prospect as a 27-year-old rookie in 2015.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2007/263445.html

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/2015-top-100-prospects/

 

Yeah I don't like prospect for Japanese players. It's true because of rookie eligibility - but it is a bit of a dig to NPB, which is better than any minor league.

[Hugh2]

I feel the same way about Benintendi as I did about Nomar after seeing him come up in late '96. The only thing that is going to stop this kid from being an all-star is injury. That swing is as good as it gets.

 

This is probably the WORST possible example but remember how excited everyone was for Will Middlebrooks? Benintendi is a more pure hitter without the holes so I think he has a much higher ceiling but my point is you never know.

 

But yeah, with a swing that sweet my money is on this kid bring an all star

[Hugh2]

One could argue those players that played 4 years of college are less prospects than a raw kid out of high school.

 

The line has to be drawn somewhere, and we as fans, can make adjustments on our own based on age, and amount of organized and professional ball.

 

That is definitely taken into account when ranking prospects. Often times a player is ranked higher than another player who perhaps has a much higher ceiling but is much further away.

 

Prospects like Espinoza, Groome, and perhaps even Devers have the potential to be cornerstone franchise players but they have higher risk too. While sometimes a prospect gives you a lot more to be excited about he often times also has more ways to NOT get there and flame out.

[Eddy Ballgame]

This is probably the WORST possible example but remember how excited everyone was for Will Middlebrooks? Benintendi is a more pure hitter without the holes so I think he has a much higher ceiling but my point is you never know.

 

But yeah, with a swing that sweet my money is on this kid bring an all star

 

Middlebrooks had plus plus power and I agree that there have obviously been plenty of hyped prospects that have failed, but I didn't see any real hole in Benintendi's game last year. He's a "natural" so to speak.

 

As far as Middlebrooks goes, as fans, we didn't find out until later that he didn't have much interest in "practicing" baseball at all.