Baseball America Top 100

[moonslav59]

Middy was the perfect example for exposing how getting overly giddy or down on a player based on 300 PAs (or significantly more) is bound to be the wrong thing to do often enough to persuade people to stop doing it. Unfortunately, that never seems to happen.

 

I caught some grief for suggesting about 2 dozen trades involving Middy after his 2012 half season and into the 2013 season where he had hit 33 HRs over a 615 AB stretch over those two "half" seasons. I'm not saying I didn't fall into the trap of wishful thinking or hype a little bit, as some players do outperform their minor league numbers once in the bigs, but I always felt like it was more "flash in the pan" than something we could count on.

 

Beni gives no such clues, and his minor league record shows he has been quick to adjust to every new level and challenge thrown his way.

 

Middy had a .766 AAA OPS in 896 PAs- a way bigger sample size than the 286 PAs in 2012 (.776 over all levels of the minors combined). He also K'd 198 times in 833 ABs in AAA and 96 in 375 ABs at AA. There were obvious signs he had "holes" in his swing. Sure, player adjust and re-adjust, and we didn't know how little he wanted to work at it, but his minor league numbers should have raised a big red flag to all of us. It didn't.

 

I'm not trying to claim to be some sort of expert on minor to major league projections. I was high on Cecchini and Hassan, so I've been wrong enough to know I'm no genius on this stuff, but I do think using caution on small sample sizes is almost always the right thing to do.

 

Beni's sample sizes are small. He's only got 775 PAs in 2 years of professional baseball, but he's show no indication of struggling.

 

He has more BBs (74) than Ks (63). He's got less than 1 K per 10 PAs. That's a good sign, but let's give the kid some more time and allow him some stretches for adjustments and learning.

 

I think he's got a super high ceiling, and that's one reason he's ranked number 1, but I'm more convinced his floor is pretty damn high.

 

 

[User Name]

You suggest trades for everyone, all the time. You are bound to hit on some theories.

[moonslav59]

You suggest trades for everyone, all the time. You are bound to hit on some theories.

 

Not everyone.

 

I've never suggested trading Betts, Porcello and I think ERod and Wright.

 

Like I said, I'm not pretending to be an expert on trade ideas.

 

I do remember several posters called me crazy for even mentioning any trade ideas for Sale or Quintana.

[User Name]

Well who'da thunk they'd give up both Kopech AND Moncada? It's crazy. But whatever, it's done.

[moonslav59]

Well who'da thunk they'd give up both Kopech AND Moncada?

 

Me.

 

Plus Basabe and Diaz.

 

I think I suggested Moncada, Kopech, Hembree (out of options), Owens and Johnson

[S5Dewey]

Middy was the perfect example for exposing how getting overly giddy or down on a player based on 300 PAs (or significantly more) is bound to be the wrong thing to do often enough to persuade people to stop doing it. Unfortunately, that never seems to happen.

 

I caught some grief for suggesting about 2 dozen trades involving Middy after his 2012 half season and into the 2013 season where he had hit 33 HRs over a 615 AB stretch over those two "half" seasons. I'm not saying I didn't fall into the trap of wishful thinking or hype a little bit, as some players do outperform their minor league numbers once in the bigs, but I always felt like it was more "flash in the pan" than something we could count on.

 

Beni gives no such clues, and his minor league record shows he has been quick to adjust to every new level and challenge thrown his way.

 

Middy had a .766 AAA OPS in 896 PAs- a way bigger sample size than the 286 PAs in 2012 (.776 over all levels of the minors combined). He also K'd 198 times in 833 ABs in AAA and 96 in 375 ABs at AA. There were obvious signs he had "holes" in his swing. Sure, player adjust and re-adjust, and we didn't know how little he wanted to work at it, but his minor league numbers should have raised a big red flag to all of us. It didn't.

 

I'm not trying to claim to be some sort of expert on minor to major league projections. I was high on Cecchini and Hassan, so I've been wrong enough to know I'm no genius on this stuff, but I do think using caution on small sample sizes is almost always the right thing to do.

 

Beni's sample sizes are small. He's only got 775 PAs in 2 years of professional baseball, but he's show no indication of struggling.

 

He has more BBs (74) than Ks (63). He's got less than 1 K per 10 PAs. That's a good sign, but let's give the kid some more time and allow him some stretches for adjustments and learning.

 

I think he's got a super high ceiling, and that's one reason he's ranked number 1, but I'm more convinced his floor is pretty damn high.

 

 

 

I don't have any problem at all with your picking out Middlebrooks as evidence that we shouldn't get too high on anyone based on a "SSS". Now lets go to the other end of the spectrum and talk about JBJ for a bit. There was a lot of talk about whether JBJ was an asset to the team because of his defense if he only hit .200.

 

They're both evidence of how we shouldn't get too high or low on a player based on Sample Size - but how many samples is enough? IMO 500 PA's is a good number to be called a full season, so how long should we stick with a guy who's hitting .200 with a full season's PA's? Another half season? 80 games is a lot of time and potential losses to be hoping that someone will hit better.

 

However, that same 500 PA's is easier to take when they're hitting well and we want to find out if he's 'found it' - like Leon did last season and like Middlebrooks did in a ~500 consecutive PA's over two seasons. In the case of someone like Leon we tend to ride the horse until he drops and then drag him around the track for another half season just to be sure he's dead. We may have even done that with Middlebrooks.

 

My point? IMHO there's more to it than just PA's. It's whether the player has the innate talent, is coachable and is willing to put in the work, all things we as fans have no way of knowing. Maybe merely trying to assign a certain number of PA's to determine whether a player is 'for real' may be a mistake.

Edited February 15, 2017 by S5Dewey

[mvp 78]

Well who'da thunk they'd give up both Kopech AND Moncada? It's crazy. But whatever, it's done.

 

Kopech is trash.

[moonslav59]

I don't have any problem at all with your picking out Middlebrooks as evidence that we shouldn't get too high on anyone based on a "SSS". Now lets go to the other end of the spectrum and talk about JBJ for a bit. There was a lot of talk about whether JBJ was an asset to the team because of his defense if he only hit .200.

 

They're both evidence of how we shouldn't get too high or low on a player based on Sample Size - but how many samples is enough? IMO 500 PA's is a good number to be called a full season, so how long should we stick with a guy who's hitting .200 with a full season's PA's? Another half season? 80 games is a lot of time and potential losses to be hoping that someone will hit better.

 

However, that same 500 PA's is easier to take when they're hitting well and we want to find out if he's 'found it' - like Leon did last season and like Middlebrooks did in a ~500 consecutive PA's over two seasons. In the case of someone like Leon we tend to ride the horse until he drops and then drag him around the track for another half season just to be sure he's dead. We may have even done that with Middlebrooks.

 

My point? IMHO there's more to it than just PA's. It's whether the player has the innate talent, is coachable and is willing to put in the work, all things we as fans have no way of knowing. Maybe merely trying to assign a certain number of PA's to determine whether a player is 'for real' may be a mistake.

 

I actually do not think even 500 or 600 is NOT a large enough sample size, particularly if it is a player's first 500-600 PAs.

 

Other factors to consider is were those PAs spread out over several seasons, and did the player get sent down and up several times within a season.

 

I never believed JBJ was that bad on offense, and while many players did good to great in the minors and never did well in the majors, I just never thought that would happen to JBJ.

 

I'm not making excuses for JBJ, but he sucked his first 500-550 PAs in MLB. However, he did so well in the minors and ST'ing that I thought he needed a longer look. Thank God, they gave it to him.

 

His OPS was over .850 in over 1,000 minor league PAs, but he had only been on farm for 2 years before being given the starting job to start the 2013 season. He played 12 games and was sent down, later he was called up for 3 games, then back down, then up for 4 games, then back down again. He came up for another 4 games before going back down until his call-up in early September where he played in 14 games (11 for more than half the game). Counting those 107 PAs from 2013 against JBJ was probably not too fair.

 

They did give him a fair shot in 2014 with 423 PAs, but I still didn't think the sample size was large enough to know much about his offense.

 

I was one who argued that his defense was enough to make up for a very poor OPS, and I never was on board with them sticking him in LF and RF so much. From 2013-2015, he started these amounts of games at OF positions:

 

LF: 23

CF: 146

RF: 34

 

I doubt this messed with his hitting, but it did not allow him to show his maximum potential input to the club.

 

He's been between .832 and .835 the last two years. He dropped off the last two months of last year, but his August 2015 to July 2016 was a 617 PA sample size of an .850+ OPS.

[moonslav59]

My point? IMHO there's more to it than just PA's. It's whether the player has the innate talent, is coachable and is willing to put in the work, all things we as fans have no way of knowing. Maybe merely trying to assign a certain number of PA's to determine whether a player is 'for real' may be a mistake.

 

Makes me wonder how many JBJ's were out there that never got that second long look chance.

 

His great defense was what made that choice easier, but what if...?

[S5Dewey]

My point? IMHO there's more to it than just PA's. It's whether the player has the innate talent, is coachable and is willing to put in the work, all things we as fans have no way of knowing. Maybe merely trying to assign a certain number of PA's to determine whether a player is 'for real' may be a mistake.

 

Makes me wonder how many JBJ's were out there that never got that second long look chance.

 

His great defense was what made that choice easier, but what if...?

 

I couldn't agree more, I've always thought that there were dozens or maybe hundreds of young men out there who were waiting on tables, working on construction or selling cars who had the skills to play MLB. They just never got the long look they needed, for one reason or another.

 

And don't go patting yourself on the back too hard. IIRC you weren't the only one defending JBJ and saying that he was a viable ML player.

[cp176]

Well who'da thunk they'd give up both Kopech AND Moncada? It's crazy. But whatever, it's done.

 

I am very happy we got Sale but Moncada gives me a reason to pay attention to at least one other team.

[moonslav59]

I couldn't agree more, I've always thought that there were dozens or maybe hundreds of young men out there who were waiting on tables, working on construction or selling cars who had the skills to play MLB. They just never got the long look they needed, for one reason or another.

 

And don't go patting yourself on the back too hard. IIRC you weren't the only one defending JBJ and saying that he was a viable ML player.

 

That's the truth. There many of us.

 

I remember when the argument turned to "should he still start, if he's hitting .220?" I always said, I never felt he'd hit .220, but if he didn't, I'd still want him starting CF everyday.

[moonslav59]

I am very happy we got Sale but Moncada gives me a reason to pay attention to at least one other team.

 

I was and am still very high on Moncada and Kopech, but we got Chris FREEKIN Sale!

[User Name]

Me.

 

Plus Basabe and Diaz.

 

I think I suggested Moncada, Kopech, Hembree (out of options), Owens and Johnson

 

Case in point, actually. You suggest trades of everyone for everyone. That was my initial statement.

[moonslav59]

Case in point, actually. You suggest trades of everyone for everyone. That was my initial statement.

 

I have never suggested trading Betts, Bogey, Pedey, Porcello or Price. I think I might have suggested one trade involving JBJ.

 

My suggested trades for Sale or Quintana were all limited to just a few players in various combinations.

[Behindenemylines]

Travis did not make the list. Former prospects inclded Moncada, Kopech, and Margot. I only looked quickly but didn't see Guerra, Dubon, or Basabe.

 

You missed Espi at #21.

 

I think Travis will surprise people this season. I can see him putting up big numbers at AAA. Last years injury put a stop to his steady progress.