2017 Rotation

[S5Dewey]

I simply don't want to see Wright coming out of the pen. K-ballers have three things that can happen to their pitch. It isn't working at all - which is a lot like BP to opposing hitters, it's working great - which is what we want but can't depend on, or it's working too well - in which case the catcher can't always catch or block it. Two of those three are disastrous for a RP but as a starter Farrell has time to figure out what kind of a day he's having before major damage is done.

 

Let me ask this: If we hadn't picked up Sale wouldn't Wright have been in our top 3 this year based on what he's done in the past? If so, does it make any sense to banish him to AAA or the 'pen?

[Kimmi]

True enough, but with our pen being somewhat shaky or at least questionable, I want the one left out of the rotation in the pen--not AAA.

 

 

For one, I would like Dombrowski to sign another reliever or two.

 

For two, we don't know how shaky our pen will be, which is kind of the point of depth and flexibility.

[Kimmi]

I don't really want Wright or ERod hanging out in the pen. If Pomeranz is in the rotation, either Wright or ERod should be starting in AAA.

 

I don't either. If any of the 3 are going to be in the pen, it should be Pomeranz.

[mvp 78]

For one, I would like Dombrowski to sign another reliever or two.

 

For two, we don't know how shaky our pen will be, which is kind of the point of depth and flexibility.

 

Even though other posters are worried about using up cap space, I agree with you. This pen lost Koji, Tax, Buchholz AND Ziegler and only grabbed one new guy. They are really rolling the dice that Hembree, Abad and Kelly will provide a lot of value.

[mvp 78]

I don't either. If any of the 3 are going to be in the pen, it should be Pomeranz.

 

I think they want to go with an all LHP rotation if possible so Pom will stick around a bit longer. They just need to move Porcello (who is a bum and could never have an ERA below 4.50).

[Bellhorn04]

For one, I would like Dombrowski to sign another reliever or two.

 

I thought you were a 'throw stuff at the wall' advocate. Do you mean scrap heap types?

[Spudboy]

I thought you were a 'throw stuff at the wall' advocate. Do you mean scrap heap types?

 

Pretty much, yes. I always refer to guys like Ross and Badenhop as examples of the type of guys that can be had.

 

The past couple of years the Sox have purchased expensive pen pieces like Kimbrel, Smith, and the new kid what's his name.

 

The throw stuff at the wall is a functional technique if you have remaining budget and space in the pen and in AAA.

[Kimmi]

Our pen finished strongly last year, but it could all be a mirage.

 

We lost 3 of our top RP'ers (Uehara, Ziegler and Tazawa) and replaced them with Thornburg and hopes of an early return to form by Smith.

 

Kimbrel showed regression last year-- his 4th straight significant jump in WHIP (.088> .091> 1.06> 1.09). We may need a closer this year.

 

Thornburg & Smith have had one very good year in the bigs each--just one.

 

Kelly has fooled us with late season heroics before.

 

Ross has been steady as can be, but for some reason has never been promoted to 8th inning status.

 

Barnes showed signs of growth and glimpses of greatness last year, but he's still just a promise.

 

The rest are big question marks: Elias, Hembree, Abad, Scott, Workman, N Ramirez, Martin, Ysla, Olmos or a starter turned RP'er like Owens or Johnson.

 

This pen is not as good as some seem to think it is. We were somewhere between 8th and 12th last year in many major RP'er stats or metrics, but we were also very close to being number 16 in several categories of measurement. Losing 3 key RP'ers and replacing them with one is not encouraging.

 

Adding Pom or Wright to the pen, if possible, could go a long way towards improving the pen. Either can eat a lot of innings in the middle of a game and keep us competitive after a starter struggles. Who is our big middle inning/long relief guy now? Barnes? Kelly? We may need Kelly for the 8th as a set-up man. I'd feel much better limiting Kelly and Barnes exposure this year. Assuming a healthy rotation, we could get 100+ IP from Pom or Wright out of the pen. With our rotation expected to go deeper into games this year over last, thos 100 IP would take a lot of stress off the others.

 

I think that some of our pen problems last year stemmed from our rotation problems. For a while, the production we were getting from the #4 and #5 starters was abysmal. That took its toll on our pen.

 

Having 3 starters who should routinely give us 7 innings, along with a stronger 4 and 5, should help to make our pen stronger, even with the same players.

[mvp 78]

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/06/roster-recap-no-one-knows-what-to-do-with-drew-pomeranz/

 

Not sure if anyone had read this article yet, but it's a good glimpse of how the Pomeranz is playing out.

[Kimmi]

I thought you were a 'throw stuff at the wall' advocate. Do you mean scrap heap types?

 

Well, I'm not talking about closer or 8th inning types, but a solid middle reliever who could be picked up for fairly cheap. I don't consider that scrap heap. I haven't really looked, so I don't know who's available.

 

But then, on top of that, I'd also like to see a few more scrap heap types who would be willing to sign minor league deals.

[moonslav59]

For one, I would like Dombrowski to sign another reliever or two.

 

For two, we don't know how shaky our pen will be, which is kind of the point of depth and flexibility.

 

I expected two quality pen arms added to take the place of the 3 we lost. That was counting on Smith being ready by opening day. That doesn't seem likely now, so I'm still waiting for the 40th man to be added to our 39 man roster to be a decent RP'er.

[moonslav59]

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/06/roster-recap-no-one-knows-what-to-do-with-drew-pomeranz/

 

Not sure if anyone had read this article yet, but it's a good glimpse of how the Pomeranz is playing out.

 

Ross has never been viewed as the "go to lefty vs lefties", so I think this article was mistaken there.

 

Another thing they missed is that Thornburg has a .201 reverse split. Although he's a RHP'er, he is much better vs LHBs.

 

I agree that Pom is better suited for the pen than Wright, but not because he's a lefty.

 

After earlier assurances that ERod was going to be in the rotation, it seems there's a mixed message now.

 

[moonslav59]

I think that some of our pen problems last year stemmed from our rotation problems. For a while, the production we were getting from the #4 and #5 starters was abysmal. That took its toll on our pen.

 

Having 3 starters who should routinely give us 7 innings, along with a stronger 4 and 5, should help to make our pen stronger, even with the same players.

 

Agreed, but last year our starters finished 5th in IP, so I don't think we can lay blame on them for how our pen was average and below for a big stretch of 2016.

[mvp 78]

Agreed, but last year our starters finished 5th in IP, so I don't think we can lay blame on them for how our pen was average and below for a big stretch of 2016.

 

They did great mainly due to Price and Porcello since they both put up a ton of innings. After that, it was three days in a row of hurry up and get the bullpen ready.

[moonslav59]

Well, I'm not talking about closer or 8th inning types, but a solid middle reliever who could be picked up for fairly cheap. I don't consider that scrap heap. I haven't really looked, so I don't know who's available.

 

But then, on top of that, I'd also like to see a few more scrap heap types who would be willing to sign minor league deals.

 

Ideally, picking up an 8th inning guy to pair with Thornburg would be nice, but with luxury tax issues looming and a strong need to keep some flex budget space, I can see why it hasn't happened. We already traded more youth to get Thornburgh. We traded 4 prospects for Kimbrel the previous winter.

 

As much as I feel a strong need to acquire a top quality RP'er, I doubt we can pull it off right now.

 

Maybe we can find another Ziegler this summer. We also found Uehara for pretty cheap years ago.

 

It's the Andrew Bailey and Hanrahan type deals that have failed us. One could argue the Kimbrel deal may follow suit.

[moonslav59]

They did great mainly due to Price and Porcello since they both put up a ton of innings. After that, it was three days in a row of hurry up and get the bullpen ready.

 

It was amazing how price and Porcello stayed back-to-back virtually all season long. Makes me wonder if starting one of them the 4th game of the year might make sense. Avoid back-to-back games with our 4-5 starters.

 

Note: Wright's 6.5 IP per start was nearly a full inning above the league average, but the rest were horrible.

 

6.8 Porcello

6.6 Price

6.5 Wright

5.7 LEAGUE AVG

5.6 Buch

5.4 ERod

5.2 Pom with BOS

5.1 O'Sull

4.4 Owens

3.7 Kelly

[mvp 78]

Rotation:

Sale

Porcello

Price

ERod/Pom

Wright

 

The pen should be well rested this year.

[moonslav59]

Rotation:

Sale

Porcello

Price

ERod/Pom

Wright

 

The pen should be well rested this year.

 

Barring injury, I agree, but I'd still like to replace Uehara, Ziegler and Taz with more than Thornburg and hopes of a healthy productive Smith returning sooner rather than later.

[Bellhorn04]

Barring injury, I agree, but I'd still like to replace Uehara, Ziegler and Taz with more than Thornburg and hopes of a healthy productive Smith returning sooner rather than later.

 

But Taz was a mediocre pitcher last year so replacing him is not much of an issue.

[mvp 78]

But Taz was a mediocre pitcher last year so replacing him is not much of an issue.

 

I'd be more comfortable with a mediocre Taz than Hembree, Kelly and Abad.

[S5Dewey]

I'd be more comfortable with a mediocre Taz than Hembree, Kelly and Abad.

 

I'd lost faith in Taz by the end of the year. I still think we should have signed Koji for $6M. He was closer-good stuff at the end of the year. Dump Abad and we'd still have a $6M cushion.

[Emp9]

I'd be more comfortable with a mediocre Taz than Hembree, Kelly and Abad.

 

I really find it frustrating to watch Kelly's weird stutter-step wind-up/fidgety mound presence, but the numbers don't lie. RP Kelly > SP Kelly and I have high hopes for him continuing his BP role success. Some of us have long advocated he make that career change and it's been a nice pay-off so far. It's also nice to be right about things once and a while.

[mvp 78]

I really find it frustrating to watch Kelly's weird stutter-step wind-up/fidgety mound presence, but the numbers don't lie. RP Kelly > SP Kelly and I have high hopes for him continuing his BP role success. Some of us have long advocated he make that career change and it's been a nice pay-off so far. It's also nice to be right about things once and a while.

 

Small sample size

[moonslav59]

But Taz was a mediocre pitcher last year so replacing him is not much of an issue.

 

I disagree. Taz was better last year than most of the guys we are asking to replace him. They have to get better to be an improvement over Taz.

 

 

 

Our pen had a WHIP of 1.284 and Taz was at 1.228. That might seem pretty close to average, but the guys we are asking to replace him were below or well below the team average.

 

Also, I has earlier mentioned how we may be remembering how our pen was to end the season and projecting continued glory. Taz ended the season with 7 straight scoreless outings (7.1 IP 5H 1 BB 7K).

 

RP'er WHIP

0.96 Uehara

1.02 Kelly

1.09 Kimbrel

1.10 Buch

1.23 Taz

1.25 Ross

1.25 Zieg

1.33 Hemb

1.33 Scott

1.40 Barnes

1.66 Abad

 

Only Kelly is returning, and how much can we expect him to be better than 1.23?

 

Thornburg can hopefully replace Uehara, and maybe Smith can replace Ziegler's half season with us, but if Kelly does well replacing Taz, who replaces 2016's Kelly?

 

Then, there's Buch's innings in relief to replace....

 

IP

49.2 Taz

47.0 Ueh

29.2 Taz

28.2 Layne (1.43)

22.2 Buch

 

Total: 178 IP

 

Thornburg maybe 60

C Smith maybe 35

Kelly maybe 33 more

 

We're still 50 short...

Hembree 51>???

Barnes 67>???

Ross 55> ???

Scott 6 > ???

 

[moonslav59]

I really find it frustrating to watch Kelly's weird stutter-step wind-up/fidgety mound presence, but the numbers don't lie. RP Kelly > SP Kelly and I have high hopes for him continuing his BP role success. Some of us have long advocated he make that career change and it's been a nice pay-off so far. It's also nice to be right about things once and a while.

 

He's a big hope; I agree.

 

But the emphasis is on "hope".

 

He fooled us at the end of 2015 as well.

[Kimmi]

Even though other posters are worried about using up cap space, I agree with you. This pen lost Koji, Tax, Buchholz AND Ziegler and only grabbed one new guy. They are really rolling the dice that Hembree, Abad and Kelly will provide a lot of value.

 

Well, I do want to stay under the cap, since Dombrowski went through the trouble of trading Buchholz to get under. If he had intentions of not staying under, then he should have just kept Buchholz.

 

I think Dombrowski can find some relievers who are solid but also relatively inexpensive.

[Kimmi]

Ideally, picking up an 8th inning guy to pair with Thornburg would be nice, but with luxury tax issues looming and a strong need to keep some flex budget space, I can see why it hasn't happened. We already traded more youth to get Thornburgh. We traded 4 prospects for Kimbrel the previous winter.

 

As much as I feel a strong need to acquire a top quality RP'er, I doubt we can pull it off right now.

 

Maybe we can find another Ziegler this summer. We also found Uehara for pretty cheap years ago.

 

It's the Andrew Bailey and Hanrahan type deals that have failed us. One could argue the Kimbrel deal may follow suit.

 

Sure, ideally we'd pick up another 8th inning guy. Realistically, that's not going to happen, especially with the way the price of back end relievers has gone out of control.

 

We have our 8th and 9th inning guys. We have a couple of other guys who could step into the 8th inning role if needed. I would still like to pick up another reliever or 2, but I think our pen will be okay.

[Bellhorn04]

We will pick up another reliever or 2, the only question is will we be able to wait to the deadline to do it. We really can't afford another name brand premium reliever either in dollars or more prospects. It'll be one of DD's challenges this year.

[moonslav59]

Sure, ideally we'd pick up another 8th inning guy. Realistically, that's not going to happen, especially with the way the price of back end relievers has gone out of control.

 

We have our 8th and 9th inning guys. We have a couple of other guys who could step into the 8th inning role if needed. I would still like to pick up another reliever or 2, but I think our pen will be okay.

 

 

That's the problem. We've seriously drained the farm to get where we are now- a top contender.

 

Two forces are at work though...

 

We really don't want to have to trade the last vestiges of prospects for yet another quality RP'er.

 

We really don't want to go over the luxury tax limit. Keeping at least some flex space for the deadline seems essential.

 

My guess is the most realistic options to wait until the deadline. Contract prices will only be a third of their season value, and we may be able to find values like Ziegler again, or take some hefty contract off some out-of-contention team's hands for scraps.

 

Of course, I'd love to have an 8th inning RP'er added to start the season, but I'm not willing to use all the luxury tax space or trade more of our best prospects away, so I realize this is probably pretty close to what we'll have to start the season... maybe a few minor league depth pieces added, cross our fingers and hope Smith comes to the rescue at least until the deadline.

 

 

[notin]

We will pick up another reliever or 2, the only question is will we be able to wait to the deadline to do it. We really can't afford another name brand premium reliever either in dollars or more prospects. It'll be one of DD's challenges this year.

 

Way too early to even think about deadline concerns. Any one of over a dozen players can get injured and bump "extra reliever" way down on the priority list.

 

Really the only thong the Sox should do until camp breaks is bolster the pitching depth at both starter and reliever with minor league deals. And while I get this is an unpredictable practice, it's getting a little disappointing that the Sox haven't been doing this at all. Granted it's been a slow process league wide, but other teams ate doing it.

 

But hey we got Brian Bogusevic on a minor league deal. Maybe he can be converted to a pitcher, which would make sense. Hopefully he wasn't signed to play the outfield. He can't hit, but he does have a serious CANNON for an arm..