Overall assessment of team needs

[Dojji]

I like the work DD has done with the roster since he came on board. He's been focusing on the short and intermediate term and has been building strength and depth at the big league level while leaving key prospects be. I believe we are in a far better position than I think some fans are giving the team credit for, so I thought I'd do a quick general overview and sort of touch on why I feel this way.

 

Rotation:

 

Everyone is under the impression that our rotation is a little weak on the top. I'll grant that any rotation can always be better, but I think our rotation next season is going to manifest as a strength of the squad rather than a weakness. I would like to pick up a couple depth starters to stash in the minors, that's actually the extent of meddling with the rotation we absolutely need to do. While our rotation did not pitch well in the playoffs, the same rotation has every chance to do so another time, I think it's important not to overreact to what happened to the squad in October, especially going up against an Guardians team that was playing its heart out and was just at that next level at the right time. And I do like the fact that the team has solid roster control of its entire rotation for next year and beyond, which gives us a very solid basis to explore potential upgrades with the security that if the price becomes unfavorable, we can simply walk away.

 

With 2 former CYA winners, and some very solid depth behind them (all of Wright, Pomeranz, and E-Rod have pitched at a #2 level for extended periods over the last 2 years) I think we have a very good potential in our rotation, and with a modest amount of luck may even have a very good one indeed. And having Buchholz in the wings to replace a starter who struggles or is hurt is very nice insurance. If we can swing a major upgrade safely, of course there's no reason not to do it, but there's also no reason to gut the farm or sacrifice our strength and depth in other areas in order to do so.

 

If I was using a 5 star scale to assess our level of urgency to upgrade the rotation, I would put it at a solid 2 stars.]

 

Lineup:

 

There's no denying it so I won't even bother -- we're going to feel the loss of David Ortiz next year. At the same time though, he was one hitter out of 9, and our lineup from top to bottom was the major driving force of the team last year. With youngsters like Betts and Bogaerts coming into their own, and perhaps even more importantly the first fully healthy year from Pedroia in a dog's age, along with the rotation a potentially strong asset next season, I'm not desperate to overreact to unresolved controversies in the roster at catcher, DH, and third base.

 

The big question this offseason: Do we need an offensive DH to replace some (since you can't possibly replace all) of the lost value from David Ortiz. My answer: That's one way to do it, but far from the only way. Personally I'm intrigued by the possibility of keeping Blake Swihart on the roster as a DH and third catcher, and letting his bat develop to see if that improves his trade value. My screwy theories aside, we can probably mix and match and use DH to rest people, and I'm thinking especially of Pedroia here, to try to keep them fresher over the course of the year than they otherwise would be. I'm of the personal opinion that sacrificing the potential versatility and flexibility of an open DH, for all but the best full time DH hitters, is more likely to be seen as a mistake in hindsight than it is to be seen as a brilliant move. I think the best move we can possibly make at DH is no move at all. It takes a certain discipline to not make a move when it's not the right time to make a move, especially after a disappointing showing in the playoffs, but I think I can hope that DD has that level of discipline.

 

Point to consider: With shortstop covered by a player who should be a major offensive contributor, and catcher not exactly a position dominated by great hitters leaguewide, not only is third base the closest thing we have major offensive concern, but we should be able to hide a poor offensive third baseman if we have to, mentally substituting the great offense we get from SS to compensate for poor offense from 3B, if that makes any sense.

 

While an upgrade at 3B is moderately desirable, we already have a lot of assets tied up in 3B as it is, so a major move of more assets or money at 3B probably is not desirable and is only questionably necessary. It's hard to argue we are desperate for a new third baseman when the least optimistic numbers out there still say that Travis Shaw was a perfectly adequate replacement. Also I'm probably the biggest Sandoval skeptic in the room and I'm encouraged by the news I've been reading about Sandoval's recovery. He deserves a crack at 3B based on what we've seen so far about his offseason regimen, which he seems to be taking seriously at last.

 

We may eventually need to solve 3B with a significant roster move, but it's a problem we can address at the deadline if we have to -- not all problems need to be solved immediately, or are even best addressed at once rather than over time. IF there was a decent FA 3B to go after, I might feel differently, but if any move to upgrade 3B is going to need to be a trade anyway, then wait for the deadline and give your internal options a chance to fail.

 

On my 5 star urgency scale, I'd say a major upgrade to the lineup is one single star, no more than that. Our lineup was the driving force behind our making the playoffs this year, I would look to upgrade in other areas where an upgrade is easier, rather than blowing major assets trying to double down on the thing we got most right this year.

 

Defense and bench:

 

Our defensive numbers came out as kinda sorta averagish this campaign if memory serves. That said defense is not a major issue for the team, and our weakest offensive positions are defensive assets at their positions, and it goes without saying that our outfield defense looks to continue to be fantastic, so I don't see a major reason why we need to upgrade the gloves.

 

Bench is again, a major asset of the franchise. If Sandoval takes the 3B job back we'll have Shaw, Holt, Young, and a good defensive catcher (one of Leon or Vazquez will surely be the backup even if Swihart swings the starting job). That might be the best bench in major league baseball, if it's not, it's up there.

 

I see shoring our defense and depth as a one star priority on the 5 star scale.

 

Bullpen:

 

This is the area that probably needs the most work. Fortunately, it's also the area that of all aspects of a baseball team, is the easiest to make changes.

 

Let me start by saying I'm not all that worried about Craig Kimbrel as the closer. Between Papelbon and Koji, we got a little spoiled over the last decade or so at the closer's position, as closer go, if you leave aside the price we paid for him (and you *have* to leave that aside to fairly assess the bullpen, any other form of analysis consists of pointless ego-stroking) Kimbrel 2013 really isn't that bad. He's a hell of a lot better than Andrew Bailey. The fact that he's a decent bet to improve on a slightly subpar 2013 campaign is nice, but I would be looking to bring in another big arm if I could do so, since we've lost Koji and our bullpen depth is poor.

 

Bullpens are the most ephemeral factor in a baseball team, and that can lead people into the mistake of assuming that it's a poor place to spend assets or that no one should pay big money for relievers. Similar to my views on the rotation, I feel that the only way to build the best possible bullpen consistently is to turn over every stone. If you can upgrade the bullpen with money, spend money. If you can grab a key arm in trade, make a trade. Trying to go cheap on the pen and just mix and match AAAA guys until someone sticks is a decent move for a small market struggling to pay the bills. If you're not a small market struggling to pay the bills, then you should be prepared to pay the sticker price for the best bullpen you can assemble, especially if you're trying to win championships. I'm a little concerned because DD has a tendency to assume he can patch together the lower middle of the pen over the season and has a long track record of not prioritizing the pen as a place to make substantial upgrades, and I feel a substantial upgrade is required.

 

On my 5 star urgency rating, I place upgrading the bullpen at 3 stars -- the highest of any of these factors, but still not precisely desperate.

 

Final analysis time, I think the team overall is in excellent shape and I'd say we have to be the frontrunners to retake the division this year even if no major changes to the roster happen. I would like to see a few upgrades take place here and there to maximize our chances in the playoffs, but we are in a position not to make panic moves and I'd like to hope DD understands just how important it is to not overreact to offseason pressure. I think most of our biggest problems are going to be more solvable in the middle of next season than they will be in the offseason due to the season giving us a chance to stack external options against internal ones and make a more informed decision.

 

Putting my turban on and gazing into my crystal ball for a moment, I expect a quiet offseason with most of the big moves taking place in the bullpen area, and I expect any major moves at the positions to wait for June next year, with the possible exception of signing a DH which I hope they don't do (Pedroia in particular would benefit from regular DH time to prevent the wear and tear that's sabotaged him in the last several postseasons)

 

EDIT: Huh. Apparently it is possible to make a post too long. I just passed the 10,000 character limit and my post was rejected. Never encountered that before.

[OH FOY]

As crazy as this sounds, with the 100 pitch count in Baseball today, I would sign Melancon, Jansen, and Chapman. Flip flop every other day when we have leads, and make them multiple late inning Relievers. Make every game I could a 6 inning game for the Starters.

Save money on Pitch Count clickers.

Bullpen is the future, the way the game is going.

[Kimmi]

EDIT: Huh. Apparently it is possible to make a post too long. I just passed the 10,000 character limit and my post was rejected. Never encountered that before.

 

LOL There's a reason for that. Most people have openly admitted that if a post is too long, they won't read it.

 

I agree with your opening paragraph, but I will once again give the majority of credit to Ben and Theo, not to Dombrowski. Dombrowski did a great job of getting the players that he wanted. I will give him credit for that.

 

I agree with your assessment of the rotation.

 

Two concerns:

 

1. We need some more depth, which you pointed out. That said, it's difficult to find solid depth that can be 'stashed' in AAA. If those guys are anywhere near decent, they'll be starting for a team somewhere.

 

2. I have concerns with the effect that pitching in the WBC might have on ERod. Especially since he was injured last year. If the WBC adversely affects him, that could be a huge knock to our rotation.

[Kimmi]

As crazy as this sounds, with the 100 pitch count in Baseball today, I would sign Melancon, Jansen, and Chapman. Flip flop every other day when we have leads, and make them multiple late inning Relievers. Make every game I could a 6 inning game for the Starters.

Save money on Pitch Count clickers.

Bullpen is the future, the way the game is going.

 

Bullpen might be the future, but IMO, you can accomplish that goal without spending a fortune on relievers. I would not sign any reliever to a long term contract.

 

Additionally, I'm not sure Melancon can thrive in a 'pressure cooker' like Boston or NY.

[OH FOY]

That's OK. In July Teams will be looking for Relievers, I'll stock up my Minors, with a Trade, you see what great prospects were giving up last July, for Closers? I'll corner the Market. haha

31 Million for Price, you get almost 1.5 great Relievers, who Pitch more days, and affects more games. And are easier to Trade. You think you could Trade Price? 3 Great Relievers and cost only 1 Draft Pick.

Anyway it's a crazy dream. Wont happen.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Edited November 24, 2016 by OH FOY!

[Kimmi]

On the topic of offense, that is the least of my concerns. The Sox scored 878 runs last year, 33 more runs than the next closest team and 101 runs more than the next closest AL team. With the loss of Papi, our offense will go from being the best to merely being one of the best. We do not need to make a big move to replace Papi's lost offense.

 

If the Sox have any hopes of Swihart being a full time catcher, he needs to be in AAA playing every day as a catcher.

 

As far as 3B goes, we currently have enough options that hopefully one of them pans out. I agree that unless we trade away some of those options, it would make more sense to wait until midseason to assess how strong of a need we have at that position.

[Kimmi]

That's OK. In July Teams will be looking for Relievers, I'll stock up my Minors, with a Trade, you see what great prospects were giving up last July, for Closers? I'll corner the Market. haha

31 Million for Price, you get almost 1.5 great Relievers, who Pitch more days, and affects more games. And are easier to Trade. You think you could Trade Price? 3 Great Relievers and cost only 1 Draft Pick.

Anyway it's a crazy dream. Wont happen.

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

Well, I didn't like the contract for Price either. LOL

 

I just have a different philosophy when it comes to relievers. It's not that I don't think they're important. A good bullpen is very important. I just don't think you have to pay big bucks to build a great bullpen.

 

Happy Thanksgiving to you!

[Bellhorn04]

As crazy as this sounds, with the 100 pitch count in Baseball today, I would sign Melancon, Jansen, and Chapman. Flip flop every other day when we have leads, and make them multiple late inning Relievers. Make every game I could a 6 inning game for the Starters.

Save money on Pitch Count clickers.

Bullpen is the future, the way the game is going.

 

The idea makes sense. Unfortunately, as with many good ideas, everybody else probably has the same one right now. And the pricing will reflect it. There's talk that Chapman is looking for 20 million a year. To me that equates to about 50 million for a starter. Enough to give one pause for thought, shall we say.

[Jack Flap]

I mostly agree with this, although I'd probably swap the rotation and the offense in our hierarchy of needs. Though it would always be nice to add a TOTR pitcher if the opportunity presents itself, I'd be perfectly comfortable going into next season with a Price/Porcello/Pomeranz/Wright/Buchholz group. (Much of the rotation angst I see here and elsewhere seems to spring from weighting Porcello's and Price's one-start October samples way too heavily. Both will be fine.)

 

On the other hand, I feel like some people are underestimating how difficult it will be to absorb the loss of David Ortiz...subtracting a guy coming off a transcendent season and assuming you can make up the difference with the likes of Sandoval, Swihart, etc. feels like extreme rose-colored glasses to me. Those guys may help, and a full year of Benintendi certainly will, but I do think adding someone like Beltran or Holliday on a short-term deal would go a long way towards filling (or at least minimizing) the Papi void.

 

I don't think anyone can disagree that the bullpen is most in need of work at this point.

[Dojji]

The thing about it is, we don't need an offense that performed at the level of last year or greater. We had a substantial lead on the second best offense in the majors, and there's every chance our rotation will perform significantly better next year, it's in a much better place than it was in April of 2016. We just need the offense to carry its share, last year it carried the whole team instead. We can afford a small dropoff if the expected improvement in the rotation comes through.

 

Also while the bullpen is where we need the most work -- I did want to stress that if NOTHING is done, the team is still going into 2017 in pretty decent shape with a good chance to win the division, the big concern being the shallow state of the pen.

[S5Dewey]

On the topic of offense, that is the least of my concerns. The Sox scored 878 runs last year, 33 more runs than the next closest team and 101 runs more than the next closest AL team. With the loss of Papi, our offense will go from being the best to merely being one of the best. We do not need to make a big move to replace Papi's lost offense.

 

If the Sox have any hopes of Swihart being a full time catcher, he needs to be in AAA playing every day as a catcher.

 

As far as 3B goes, we currently have enough options that hopefully one of them pans out. I agree that unless we trade away some of those options, it would make more sense to wait until midseason to assess how strong of a need we have at that position.

 

I agree with paragraph #1. IMO we had a lot of overkill in our offense last year. While our offense (obviously) won't be as strong without Ortiz it still should be good enough to get the job done even if we have to resort to DH-by-committee. However, I'd still like to fill that position on a one or two year basis if it can be done at the right cost.

 

At this point I'd like to see the FO focus on run prevention rather than run creation. You can't have too much pitching, whether it's SP or RP, so I wouldn't object to improving the pitching staff as long as it can be done without damaging the defense of the position players. Translation: Free agency, trades of prospects, or improving from within (which I don't see happening unless Big Johnson or Owens has a breakthrough).

 

Sandoval has left us, in the words of George Clooney in O' Brother.... "in a tight spot here". The team has a lot of money tied up in a 3rd baseman and we still don't know if he's going to be able to cut it or not. Spring Training should determine whether he gets a chance. Unfortunately even if Sandoval wins the job all we've got is an overpaid 3Bman who's mediocre both offensively and defensively. The good news is that 'mediocre' is better than what was there last year. The rest of the good news is that if the worst position on the team is defined as mediocre the rest of the team is pretty darn good.

 

Were I in DD's shoes I'd be looking to improve the pitching and setting some money aside in a fund to improve the team at 3B in case either Sandoval can be moved or Sandoval craps out at 3B. Scenario B probably being more likely than Scenario A.

 

In a nutshell, try to pickup a respectable dedicated DH but don't break the bank doing it, protect the seven position players we already have (3B being the exception), and do what can be done about the pitching staff. And keep in mind that the BP was kinda the strength of the team during the last part of the season. BP's are always a crap shoot but we may be better off signing some of what we've got rather than signing someone else's crap.

[oldtimer]

I like the work DD has done with the roster since he came on board. He's been focusing on the short and intermediate term and has been building strength and depth at the big league level while leaving key prospects be. I believe we are in a far better position than I think some fans are giving the team credit for, so I thought I'd do a quick general overview and sort of touch on why I feel this way.

 

Rotation:

 

Everyone is under the impression that our rotation is a little weak on the top. I'll grant that any rotation can always be better, but I think our rotation next season is going to manifest as a strength of the squad rather than a weakness. I would like to pick up a couple depth starters to stash in the minors, that's actually the extent of meddling with the rotation we absolutely need to do. While our rotation did not pitch well in the playoffs, the same rotation has every chance to do so another time, I think it's important not to overreact to what happened to the squad in October, especially going up against an Guardians team that was playing its heart out and was just at that next level at the right time. And I do like the fact that the team has solid roster control of its entire rotation for next year and beyond, which gives us a very solid basis to explore potential upgrades with the security that if the price becomes unfavorable, we can simply walk away.

 

With 2 former CYA winners, and some very solid depth behind them (all of Wright, Pomeranz, and E-Rod have pitched at a #2 level for extended periods over the last 2 years) I think we have a very good potential in our rotation, and with a modest amount of luck may even have a very good one indeed. And having Buchholz in the wings to replace a starter who struggles or is hurt is very nice insurance. If we can swing a major upgrade safely, of course there's no reason not to do it, but there's also no reason to gut the farm or sacrifice our strength and depth in other areas in order to do so.

 

If I was using a 5 star scale to assess our level of urgency to upgrade the rotation, I would put it at a solid 2 stars.]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

I have no problem reading a long post like this one when it is well thought out and stated.

 

Like you, I believe the rotation is good with E-Rod likely to become a quality starter next year. I am not a fan of Buch but having him as a 6th starter is okay. I believe DD will not trade for a starter without getting equal or better value.

 

I also advocated the approach of not getting stuck on the idea of a full time DH but considering a DH from among our 25 man roster. Young looks like a potential candidate as does Swihart. Moving older players like Pedroia and Rameriz there to give them a break at times is also a good idea. I wouldn't rule out looking for a candidate that could play in the field and also DH part time. That wouldn't be EE. Again, DD should only go into the FA market to improve the team and stay away for long term expensive contracts for ageing player.

 

We may have a weakness at catcher next season, but all that talk is relative since there is no Johnny Bench out there. I am resigned to staying with the talent we have although who plays and how many make the roster is an interesting question.

 

I like our outfield and hope that jbj can make adjustments to his swing. We are solid defensively and if Beni can keep it going, I would take our outfield over any in baseball. Our infield is solid defensively but we still have a question mark at 3rd base. I don't like the idea of saying we should accept a position where we are weak because we are strong in other positions. If Shaw repeats his second half offensively and Sandoval is unable to return from his long hiatus, then we might have to rely on Holt and hope Moncada can progress rapidly. Justin Turner looks awfully good on paper, but he is probably unobtainable at any reasonable price. I don't know where else we go with this but think we could be weak throughout the season at 3rd.

 

Relief pitching is definitely needed with Uehara, Ziegler and Tazawa probably all gone. Abad probably won't be renewed either. I would look for one very solid setup man and another long reliever to supplement what Buch can give us (mostly in the BP).

 

We have seen some rather aggressive proposals for trading away many of our solid players, depth and prospects to get SP and RP. Some of those proposals seem like giveaways to me with less value and higher risk in return. DD is clever and I hope will not follow that approach.

[Wade Boggs]

The idea makes sense. Unfortunately, as with many good ideas, everybody else probably has the same one right now. And the pricing will reflect it. There's talk that Chapman is looking for 20 million a year. To me that equates to about 50 million for a starter. Enough to give one pause for thought, shall we say.

 

 

That is correct. The rumor has it Chapman already turned down 5/85m from the NYY. Chapman will get near or a little over 100m. Jansen should bag a good deal north of 90m. The closers will be paid. IMO

[Wade Boggs]

I have no problem reading a long post like this one when it is well thought out and stated.

 

Like you, I believe the rotation is good with E-Rod likely to become a quality starter next year. I am not a fan of Buch but having him as a 6th starter is okay. I believe DD will not trade for a starter without getting equal or better value.

 

I also advocated the approach of not getting stuck on the idea of a full time DH but considering a DH from among our 25 man roster. Young looks like a potential candidate as does Swihart. Moving older players like Pedroia and Rameriz there to give them a break at times is also a good idea. I wouldn't rule out looking for a candidate that could play in the field and also DH part time. That wouldn't be EE. Again, DD should only go into the FA market to improve the team and stay away for long term expensive contracts for ageing player.

 

We may have a weakness at catcher next season, but all that talk is relative since there is no Johnny Bench out there. I am resigned to staying with the talent we have although who plays and how many make the roster is an interesting question.

 

I like our outfield and hope that jbj can make adjustments to his swing. We are solid defensively and if Beni can keep it going, I would take our outfield over any in baseball. Our infield is solid defensively but we still have a question mark at 3rd base. I don't like the idea of saying we should accept a position where we are weak because we are strong in other positions. If Shaw repeats his second half offensively and Sandoval is unable to return from his long hiatus, then we might have to rely on Holt and hope Moncada can progress rapidly. Justin Turner looks awfully good on paper, but he is probably unobtainable at any reasonable price. I don't know where else we go with this but think we could be weak throughout the season at 3rd.

 

Relief pitching is definitely needed with Uehara, Ziegler and Tazawa probably all gone. Abad probably won't be renewed either. I would look for one very solid setup man and another long reliever to supplement what Buch can give us (mostly in the BP).

 

We have seen some rather aggressive proposals for trading away many of our solid players, depth and prospects to get SP and RP. Some of those proposals seem like giveaways to me with less value and higher risk in return. DD is clever and I hope will not follow that approach.

 

1. Bullpen help

 

2. No long term contract on EE.. Beltran or keep it open.

 

3. Try and see if they can work something out for Sale. If the CHW get crazy and it is in their right. I don't blame them. Just walk away.

 

4. They won't do it. But I would overpay for Chapman or Jansen. Not both but one. Jansen in the playoffs proved he could go multiple innings. He's durable. They don't have power arms in that pen besides Kimbrel. I like Kelly but don't trust him. Not a big fan of Barnes.

[notin]

As crazy as this sounds, with the 100 pitch count in Baseball today, I would sign Melancon, Jansen, and Chapman. Flip flop every other day when we have leads, and make them multiple late inning Relievers. Make every game I could a 6 inning game for the Starters.

Save money on Pitch Count clickers.

Bullpen is the future, the way the game is going.

 

Rather than committing $50mill annually yo these three (and hoping Melanoma works out this time), the Sox could accomplish a similar bullpen refurbishing with players like Holland, Hudson, Ziegler and a few other options.

 

Of course right now they have 5 bullpen spots already likely committed, and a few players without options vying for the other two. Some housecleaning is necessary.

 

Makes me wonder if the Sox can take advantage of the current bullpen trend to get a worthwhile DH option, even if just a lefty to platoon with Young, by dangling some combination of Ross, Abad, Hembree, and/or Elias....

[Dojji]

Because the one thing of all things we absolutely need to be doing right now is reducing our bullpen depth?

 

For those looking for a solution at third base -- Moonslav keeps putting forward Frazier, and it's not a bad call to have an eye on Frazier, but keep an eye on Mike Moustakas as well.

 

The Royals are at a crossroads this offseason. They can try for one more bite of the apple or they can sell off and reposition for another bite in 3 years. You can easily make an argument for either course of action and I have no idea which way Dayton Moore is going to take the Royals, but with the weakness of the KC rotation and the overall strength of the competition in the Central Division with a strong Guardians team, I expect Moore to sell some pieces off to reposition for another run at titles and glory 3-4 years down the road. With only 1 year left of team control, Moustakas might be one of the pieces moved. And he'd be a decent fit if healthy -- nothing amazing, but a solid upgrade over either Sandoval or Shaw as they are right now.

Edited November 24, 2016 by Dojji

[raider_35_24]

i agree...

1. holland or go big with chapman or jansen...this is were i think we should spend our money.

2. we could sign a guy like pedro alvarez...will not cost much.

3. sale is a guy i would get...i would include moncada and eduardo rodriguez and whoever in this deal.

4. yes to this.

 

 

1. Bullpen help

 

2. No long term contract on EE.. Beltran or keep it open.

 

3. Try and see if they can work something out for Sale. If the CHW get crazy and it is in their right. I don't blame them. Just walk away.

 

4. They won't do it. But I would overpay for Chapman or Jansen. Not both but one. Jansen in the playoffs proved he could go multiple innings. He's durable. They don't have power arms in that pen besides Kimbrel. I like Kelly but don't trust him. Not a big fan of Barnes.

Edited November 24, 2016 by raider_35_24

[moonslav59]

I don't think our rotation is weak at the top, but I firmly believe that the best way to greatly improve your rotation is by building from the top. If we can get an ace, it makes Porcello our #2 and Price our #3. It also gives us a blue chip trading chip in whoever fails to make the 4-5 slots.

 

I realize getting an ace is costly. I'm not willing to give "whatever it takes", but I will push the envelope on an overpay for someone like Quintana (or Sale).

 

I agree, the pen is our greatest need. Again, I'd rather go higher quality over quantity, but I think Jansen and Chapman would be cost prohibitive. Melancon may be too pricey. I like the Holland gamble and would love to bring Ziegler back.

 

I'm not a big fan of Abad, and he's out of options, so I like notin's idea of trading some of our RP'er mediocre quantity for a platoon DH (and maybe 3B) type.

[notin]

Because the one thing of all things we absolutely need to be doing right now is reducing our bullpen depth?

 

For those looking for a solution at third base -- Moonslav keeps putting forward Frazier, and it's not a bad call to have an eye on Frazier, but keep an eye on Mike Moustakas as well.

 

The Royals are at a crossroads this offseason. They can try for one more bite of the apple or they can sell off and reposition for another bite in 3 years. You can easily make an argument for either course of action and I have no idea which way Dayton Moore is going to take the Royals, but with the weakness of the KC rotation and the overall strength of the competition in the Central Division with a strong Guardians team, I expect Moore to sell some pieces off to reposition for another run at titles and glory 3-4 years down the road. With only 1 year left of team control, Moustakas might be one of the pieces moved. And he'd be a decent fit if healthy -- nothing amazing, but a solid upgrade over either Sandoval or Shaw as they are right now.

 

Reducing bullpen depth is going to happen if the Sox add arms. Assuming, say, Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, one of thev lefties (Ross, Abad or Elias) and the starter who doesn't make the rotation take five spots. If the Sox add a reliever or two, what happens to the other two lefties? Or to Hembree? Those guys are all out of options, so it's trade or release...

[raider_35_24]

I don't think our rotation is weak at the top, but I firmly believe that the best way to greatly improve your rotation is by building from the top. If we can get an ace, it makes Porcello our #2 and Price our #3. It also gives us a blue chip trading chip in whoever fails to make the 4-5 slots.

 

I realize getting an ace is costly. I'm not willing to give "whatever it takes", but I will push the envelope on an overpay for someone like Quintana (or Sale).

 

I agree, the pen is our greatest need. Again, I'd rather go higher quality over quantity, but I think Jansen and Chapman would be cost prohibitive. Melancon may be too pricey. I like the Holland gamble and would love to bring Ziegler back.

 

I'm not a big fan of Abad, and he's out of options, so I like notin's idea of trading some of our RP'er mediocre quantity for a platoon DH (and maybe 3B) type.

 

yeah that sounds about right...what was notin and you thinking? somebody like luis valbuena? he's a free-agent.

[moonslav59]

yeah that sounds about right...what was notin and you thinking? somebody like luis valbuena? he's a free-agent.

 

I don't see Valbuena as a DH/3B type. He might be ok for a 3B platoon bridge to Moncada, but I think Shaw-Pablo-Hernandez-Holt will probably be as good or better than Valbuena.

 

I think trading for Frazier makes the most sense, but the CWS often have price tags way too high.

 

Here's how our pen looks as is:

 

Closer: Kimbrel (He's not as sure a bet as before.)

RP2: C. Smith (He may be out until June & may need adjustment time.)

RP3: Joe Kelly (Still not a proven RP'er.)

RP4: R Ross (Has become a consistent guy.)

RP5: Matt Barnes (Showed glimpses of success.)

RP6: Buchholz/Pomeranz/Wright

RP7: Abad, Hembree, Elias, Scott, Martin, N Ramirez

Workman, Owens, Johnson, Kopech

 

Deep with mediocrity is how I see it.

 

Underlined = No options left

 

 

 

 

 

[notin]

I really don't see any scenario where Sandoval isn't given a shot at 3b thisv spring. Hopefully he's limIted to being the left-handed side of a platoon, in which case the Sox need a right-handed side to platoon with him. ..

[moonslav59]

I really don't see any scenario where Sandoval isn't given a shot at 3b thisv spring. Hopefully he's limIted to being the left-handed side of a platoon, in which case the Sox need a right-handed side to platoon with him. ..

 

I'm thinking Pablo might be best suited to platoon at DH with Young.

 

I'm not happy with Shaw-Holt-Hernandez at 3B at all, and I'm not sure if Moncada will ever get to decent as a defender at 3B. I've mentioned trading for Frazier as a bridge to Moncada, but I'm not sure if we might try to trade Moncada as part of a package for an ace or a real 3Bman with multiple years of control. We could also go after Turner and either try Moncada in LF (trade JBJ?) or just deal Moncada as mentioned before.

[Kimmi]

I mostly agree with this, although I'd probably swap the rotation and the offense in our hierarchy of needs. Though it would always be nice to add a TOTR pitcher if the opportunity presents itself, I'd be perfectly comfortable going into next season with a Price/Porcello/Pomeranz/Wright/Buchholz group. (Much of the rotation angst I see here and elsewhere seems to spring from weighting Porcello's and Price's one-start October samples way too heavily. Both will be fine.)

 

On the other hand, I feel like some people are underestimating how difficult it will be to absorb the loss of David Ortiz...subtracting a guy coming off a transcendent season and assuming you can make up the difference with the likes of Sandoval, Swihart, etc. feels like extreme rose-colored glasses to me. Those guys may help, and a full year of Benintendi certainly will, but I do think adding someone like Beltran or Holliday on a short-term deal would go a long way towards filling (or at least minimizing) the Papi void.

 

I don't think anyone can disagree that the bullpen is most in need of work at this point.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]450[/ATTACH]

 

I don't think any of us think that we're going to make up the loss of Papi with Sandoval, et al. What we're saying is that we don't have to make up the entire difference. Our offense should be one of the top offenses regardless.

 

What I'm saying is that I don't think we should try to go big with someone like Encarnacion because we don't need him.

[Kimmi]

I agree with paragraph #1. IMO we had a lot of overkill in our offense last year. While our offense (obviously) won't be as strong without Ortiz it still should be good enough to get the job done even if we have to resort to DH-by-committee. However, I'd still like to fill that position on a one or two year basis if it can be done at the right cost.

 

At this point I'd like to see the FO focus on run prevention rather than run creation. You can't have too much pitching, whether it's SP or RP, so I wouldn't object to improving the pitching staff as long as it can be done without damaging the defense of the position players. Translation: Free agency, trades of prospects, or improving from within (which I don't see happening unless Big Johnson or Owens has a breakthrough).

 

Sandoval has left us, in the words of George Clooney in O' Brother.... "in a tight spot here". The team has a lot of money tied up in a 3rd baseman and we still don't know if he's going to be able to cut it or not. Spring Training should determine whether he gets a chance. Unfortunately even if Sandoval wins the job all we've got is an overpaid 3Bman who's mediocre both offensively and defensively. The good news is that 'mediocre' is better than what was there last year. The rest of the good news is that if the worst position on the team is defined as mediocre the rest of the team is pretty darn good.

 

Were I in DD's shoes I'd be looking to improve the pitching and setting some money aside in a fund to improve the team at 3B in case either Sandoval can be moved or Sandoval craps out at 3B. Scenario B probably being more likely than Scenario A.

 

In a nutshell, try to pickup a respectable dedicated DH but don't break the bank doing it, protect the seven position players we already have (3B being the exception), and do what can be done about the pitching staff. And keep in mind that the BP was kinda the strength of the team during the last part of the season. BP's are always a crap shoot but we may be better off signing some of what we've got rather than signing someone else's crap.

 

I don't really disagree with anything in this post. I am not opposed to signing someone like Beltran who can be signed for one or two years.

 

As I stated before, I think it makes sense to wait until midseason to see what, if anything, needs to be done about our 3B situation.

 

As nice as it would be to have someone like Jansen, I really hope Dombrowski doesn't sign a reliever to a big contract. I would look into re-signing Koji.

[moonslav59]

I don't think any of us think that we're going to make up the loss of Papi with Sandoval, et al. What we're saying is that we don't have to make up the entire difference. Our offense should be one of the top offenses regardless.

 

What I'm saying is that I don't think we should try to go big with someone like Encarnacion because we don't need him.

 

A full year of Beni should help.

 

An upgrade at 3B could help.

 

Minimize the decline at DH, and maybe we can squeak by with an offense that scores about the same amount of runs.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Guardians and Cubs of 2016 and the Royals of 2015 all had one thing in common, powerful arms at the back of the pen. The Cubs are the only team of the three to have a stable of guys in the rotation capable of going deep into the game. Kimbrel will get it right, he is an elite arm. But losing Koji and Tazawa basically rids you of your bridge and youre going to need one if you plan on winning a title. DD has to be in on Chapman

[Nick]

I will go along with DEWY....

 

Sox need to focus on run prevention. It would be nice to get an ace but I'm not willing to give up any prospects. We should be building the team not risk taking a step backward.

 

I'm changing my mind about our bullpen. If we're going to upgrade it, then we should go big. I vote for Chapman and call it a day. Our offense will take a step back. We will need to protect leads. No more 15-4 games. We need to win 5-3 games. Chapman is your answer. Add Kopech in September. Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, Chapman and Kopech....now that's some heat.

[Nick]

A full year of Beni should help.

 

An upgrade at 3B could help.

 

Minimize the decline at DH, and maybe we can squeak by with an offense that scores about the same amount of runs.

 

I'm very much looking forward to watching Beni play next year as the starting left fielder.

 

I'd love to see both Swihart and Moncada get a look at some point. Throw in Kopech in a September call up and I'm excited for the season.

 

Beni, Betts, Bradley Jr, Xander, Moncada, Swihart, E Rod, Kopech.....I'm nicknaming our core group of youngsters "the Beni and the Betts"......https://youtu.be/D0TnUUqXxaQ

Edited November 25, 2016 by Nick

[raider_35_24]

I'm very much looking forward to watching Beni play next year as the starting left fielder.

 

I'd love to see both Swihart and Moncada get a look at some point. Throw in Kopech in a September call up and I'm excited for the season.

 

Beni, Betts, Bradley Jr, Xander, Moncada, Swihart, E Rod, Kopech.....I'm nicknaming our core group of youngsters "the Beni and the Betts"......https://youtu.be/D0TnUUqXxaQ

 

i think kopech is about 2 years away...he gotta work on his control....