2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread

[Eddy Ballgame]

Plouffe is fine, but the position player roster crunch looks set to the point where having him "spell" a bench guy looks like the tiniest of upgrades. If he signs a minor league deal, that works. There is no such thing as a bad minor league deal.

 

But the 7-10 spots in the rotation are wht needs to be addressed. Granted, Dombrowski needs to sign guys willing to take minor league deals to make this happen. And in this pitching market, maybe no one is willing to just yet...

 

My guess is that they'll bring some guys in on minor league deals, but I wouldn't expect much "quality." If I'm a fringe starting pitcher looking for an "opportunity," Boston wouldn't be very high on my list.

 

An awful lot can change between now and April 1st, but based on Dombrowski's comments regarding the rotation, if the season started today, you'd have a guy who made the all-star team last year (Wright) pitching in middle relief.

[rkarp1]

looking at Holt/Young/Vaz as the first 3 off the bench, with the DH also able to play 1B this season.

 

I think the 7-10 spots are pretty solidly wrapped up once Smith returns (June?)

6-Wright

7-Kelly/Barnes/Hembree/Ross

8-Thornburg

9-Smith

10-Kimbrell

[Dojji]

I am solidly against putting Wright in the bullpen, he was the second best starter on the team last year by ERA+, behind only Porcello and AHEAD of Price. it is an insult to his 2016 performance not to have him in the rotation.

 

Also why the hell do people keep wanting to put our 2016 team leader in Complete Games in the fricking pen is absolutely beyond me, I have no idea why this happens in people's heads. Despite the injury Wright threw 156 innings of 3.33 ERA baseball for the third most starts, third most innings pitched and second best ERA on the team. He was easily our #3 starter, possibly our #2, and until a fluke injury derailed his season he was a dark horse contender for the CYA. That's the guy that's somehow worse than both Pomeranz and E-Rod. Just not seeing it.

 

Yes those two pitchers have great power lefty arms, and yes, we saw with Joe Kelly how well having a projectable power arm guarantees ace level performance. And people tell me that knuckleballers are unpredictable? Try a young power lefty. That's "unpredictable."

 

There are much better uses for a pitcher like Wright than throwing junktime innings out pf the pen. When he's proven he's ACTUALLY as unpredictable as other knuckleballers, which he hasn't done yet, then you treat him like an unpredictable knuckleballer. So far the remarkable thing about Wright is the fact that he's been so steady and consistent despite throwing the knuckleball. Until that changes I'd actually say he's our #4 starter in a walk

 

In 2015 Drew Pomeranz threw 86 innings and made 9 starts in a depth starter role for Oakland, pitching to a 3.32 ERA and maintaining very favorable peripheral stats. In 2014 he was more active as a starterm 10 of his 20 appearances being starts, and accomplished a fantastic 2.35 ERA. There are simply not a lot of pitchers who could have accomplished a season like that while bouncing between roles. I don't think it's particularly unreasonable to claim if someone who is a starter goes to the pen, it should be Pomeranz who was so effective in a hybrid role 2 years prior, or that it is an insult to Pomeranz to place him in a position where he succeeded so spectacularly in the past.

Edited December 27, 2016 by Dojji

[Bellhorn04]

I am solidly against putting Wright in the bullpen, he was the second best starter on the team last year by ERA+, behind only Porcello and AHEAD of Price. it is an insult to his 2016 performance not to have him in the rotation.

 

Also why the hell do people keep wanting to put our 2016 team leader in Complete Games in the fricking pen is absolutely beyond me, I have no idea why this happens in people's heads. Despite the injury Wright threw 156 innings of 3.33 ERA baseball for the third most starts, third most innings pitched and second best ERA on the team. He was easily our #3 starter, possibly our #2, and until a fluke injury derailed his season he was a dark horse contender for the CYA. That's the guy that's somehow worse than both Pomeranz and E-Rod. Just not seeing it.

 

Yes those two pitchers have great power lefty arms, and yes, we saw with Joe Kelly how well having a projectable power arm guarantees ace level performance. And people tell me that knuckleballers are unpredictable? Try a young power lefty. That's "unpredictable."

 

There are much better uses for a pitcher like Wright than throwing junktime innings out pf the pen. When he's proven he's ACTUALLY as unpredictable as other knuckleballers, which he hasn't done yet, then you treat him like an unpredictable knuckleballer. So far the remarkable thing about Wright is the fact that he's been so steady and consistent despite throwing the knuckleball. Until that changes I'd actually say he's our #4 starter in a walk

 

I'm not knocking Wright, but steady and consistent is stretching it. Last year he had a 2.01 ERA with a .559 OPSa in his first 14 starts and a 5.55 ERA with a .795 OPSa in his last 10 starts.

 

None of which means he can't be a big contributor in 2017.

Edited December 27, 2016 by Bellhorn04

[Eddy Ballgame]

looking at Holt/Young/Vaz as the first 3 off the bench, with the DH also able to play 1B this season.

 

I think the 7-10 spots are pretty solidly wrapped up once Smith returns (June?)

6-Wright

7-Kelly/Barnes/Hembree/Ross

8-Thornburg

9-Smith

10-Kimbrell

 

I think Notin was referring to the 7-10 spots for starting pitching. There's pretty limited depth right now after Wright.

[notin]

looking at Holt/Young/Vaz as the first 3 off the bench, with the DH also able to play 1B this season.

 

I think the 7-10 spots are pretty solidly wrapped up once Smith returns (June?)

6-Wright

7-Kelly/Barnes/Hembree/Ross

8-Thornburg

9-Smith

10-Kimbrell

 

I said in the rotation. That wasn't a typo. C'mon karp; I've been ranting about the need for 7-10 starters for years back on BDC.

 

I am referring to the guys who pitch when the current starters get hurt, which is inevitable for some. Smart GMs do plan their starters down to the tenth man for this reason. Epstein chastised himself publicly for failing to do so, but luckily for him the Cubs had very few health issues....

[Eddy Ballgame]

I'm not knocking Wright, but steady and consistent is stretching it. Last year he had a 2.01 ERA with a .599 OPSa in his first 14 starts and a 5.55 ERA with a .795 OPSa in his last 10 starts.

 

None of which means he can't be a big contributor in 2017.

 

Wright should and likely will get every opportunity to crack the rotation, but as things stand right now, he seems to be the odd man out based on Dombrowski's comments after the Sale trade. Again, a lot can obviously happen between now and opening day.

[notin]

I'm not knocking Wright, but steady and consistent is stretching it. Last year he had a 2.01 ERA with a .559 OPSa in his first 14 starts and a 5.55 ERA with a .795 OPSa in his last 10 starts.

 

None of which means he can't be a big contributor in 2017.

 

It is weird to me that, when i mention the notion of Rodriguez in AAA, I get told that would be "unfair" to him. Yet somehow, a move to the bullpen for 2016 AL All Star Steven Wright is absolutely fair and he should be happy to get even that much.

 

What has Rodriguez earned that Wright hasn't?

[Dojji]

It's the natural order of things. Power arms have the shine and the glamour, and of course other kinds of pitchers should get out of their way, regardless of relative merit.

[Eddy Ballgame]

It is weird to me that, when i mention the notion of Rodriguez in AAA, I get told that would be "unfair" to him. Yet somehow, a move to the bullpen for 2016 AL All Star Steven Wright is absolutely fair and he should be happy to get even that much.

 

What has Rodriguez earned that Wright hasn't?

 

Just my opinion, but there is no way the Sox are going to stick Rodriguez in AAA if he has a good spring. He has top of the rotation stuff & my guess is that they consider him a breakout year candidate. Why f... with his head? He's proven he can consistently get MLB hitters out when healthy.

 

Steven Wright got injured last year and wasn't the same when he came back. I think he has more to prove than Rodriguez does at this point. If it was up to me and those two guys along with Pomeranz all pitch well this spring, then Pomeranz would be the guy who heads to the pen, but that doesn't seem to be the plan. The fact that Wright can be stretched out much quicker certainly doesn't help him.

[Bellhorn04]

It is weird to me that, when i mention the notion of Rodriguez in AAA, I get told that would be "unfair" to him. Yet somehow, a move to the bullpen for 2016 AL All Star Steven Wright is absolutely fair and he should be happy to get even that much.

 

What has Rodriguez earned that Wright hasn't?

 

I don't disagree. Personally I don't care who has earned what or if they draw straws to decide who gets the last 2 spots in the rotation. We know they'll all get their shot. It's just about the initial configuration that makes the most sense.

[notin]

Just my opinion, but there is no way the Sox are going to stick Rodriguez in AAA if he has a good spring. He has top of the rotation stuff & my guess is that they consider him a breakout year candidate. Why f... with his head? He's proven he can consistently get MLB hitters out when healthy.

 

Steven Wright got injured last year and wasn't the same when he came back. I think he has more to prove than Rodriguez does at this point. If it was up to me and those two guys along with Pomeranz all pitch well this spring, then Pomeranz would be the guy who heads to the pen, but that doesn't seem to be the plan. The fact that Wright can be stretched out much quicker certainly doesn't help him.

 

So it's ok to f..k with Wright's head?

 

I don't think putting Rodriguez in AAA is f..king with his head anymore than it was when Lester was handled the same way.

 

I do agree Pomeranz should go to the bullpen. For some reason, that option seems to be off the table, which is another reason why that was a stupid trade. ...

[Eddy Ballgame]

So it's ok to f..k with Wright's head?

 

I don't think putting Rodriguez in AAA is f..king with his head anymore than it was when Lester was handled the same way.

 

I do agree Pomeranz should go to the bullpen. For some reason, that option seems to be off the table, which is another reason why that was a stupid trade. ...

 

I completely disagree with you on Rodriguez, but we aren't the ones making these decisions. Sticking a guy in AAA who has nothing left to prove and already had success at the MLB level, is a little different than keeping a guy in the bullpen on the MLB roster.

 

I can't see any situation where they would ever consider demoting Rodriguez if he looks good this spring. There's a huge difference between keeping a guy down to stall his clock and demoting a guy who's already had success at the MLB level.

[Bellhorn04]

I do agree Pomeranz should go to the bullpen. For some reason, that option seems to be off the table, which is another reason why that was a stupid trade. ...

 

I fail to see how wanting him to be a starter is 'another reason' it was a stupid trade. Wanting him to be a reliever would be more of a confirmation that it was a stupid trade.

[notin]

I fail to see how wanting him to be a starter is 'another reason' it was a stupid trade. Wanting him to be a reliever would be more of a confirmation that it was a stupid trade.

 

There is a difference between"wanting him" to be a starter and "forcing him" to be a starter....

[notin]

I completely disagree with you on Rodriguez, but we aren't the ones making these decisions. Sticking a guy in AAA who has nothing left to prove and already had success at the MLB level, is a little different than keeping a guy in the bullpen on the MLB roster.

 

I can't see any situation where they would ever consider demoting Rodriguez if he looks good this spring. There's a huge difference between keeping a guy down to stall his clock and demoting a guy who's already had success at the MLB level.

 

Then that also kills Soxprospects notion of Kelly in AAA.

 

Teams put players in AAA for reasons other than development and service time. In fact, depth might be the biggest reason for most players in AAA.

 

I do think fans overplayed his success and prefer to marry it to his potential. Wright has been much more successful than Rodriguez at the MLB level, but as he is nearly 10 years older, his bright future has already passed.

 

And its not like putting Rodriguez in AAA in April postpones his debut. He's very likely to be up before May regardless.

 

In fact, history tells us there is a significant chance the Sox don't leave Spring Training without an injured starter...

[Eddy Ballgame]

Then that also kills Soxprospects notion of Kelly in AAA.

 

Teams put players in AAA for reasons other than development and service time. In fact, depth might be the biggest reason for most players in AAA.

 

I do think fans overplayed his success and prefer to marry it to his potential. Wright has been much more successful than Rodriguez at the MLB level, but as he is nearly 10 years older, his bright future has already passed.

 

And its not like putting Rodriguez in AAA in April postpones his debut. He's very likely to be up before May regardless.

 

In fact, history tells us there is a significant chance the Sox don't leave Spring Training without an injured starter...

 

I have no idea why Sox Prospects puts Kelly in Pawtucket to start the year. He had some success in the pen last year and seems to be talked about as a big part of that pen by the brass, especially if he looks good this spring. Maybe they know something we don't. I get that guys are out of options, so maybe they expect the Sox to keep all of those who are.

 

I think it's apples and oranges with Rodriguez, though. I can't think of one situation that was similar to that of E-Rod, and a team demoted the player. Part of that is definitely lack of trying to come up with one, but I doubt I would find anything anyway. As you mentioned, these things tend to work themselves out due to injury.

[moonslav59]

Some one will be hurt or sucking badly in ST'ing. We only need one guy and all the 25 man roster questions will be answered.If nobody is injured or struggling badly, we can invent an injury for Abad or Hembree to be placed on the DL. If someone else looks like they could use some sharpening up, we could put them on the DL with a "rehab" assignment.

 

I'm not sure why soxprospects put Kelly as a starter not the AAA closer, but maybe they heard something we have not. Maybe they just saw our strong need for a 7th starter. I think the reason they put Kelly in AAA was so we could keep Abad and Hembree on the team and ERod on the 25 man roster as ERod > Kelly. Wright is greater than Kelly as well (as a starter or in relief).

 

I think Kelly is better than both Abad and hembree, so maybe we trade one of these two, if we really are feeling squeezed.

 

When C Smith returns, a whole new debate may occur.

A

[Bellhorn04]

There is a difference between"wanting him" to be a starter and "forcing him" to be a starter....

 

Having him start the year in the rotation doesn't forever rule out the possibility of using him in the bullpen.

[moonslav59]

I have no idea why Sox Prospects puts Kelly in Pawtucket to start the year. He had some success in the pen last year and seems to be talked about as a big part of that pen by the brass, especially if he looks good this spring. Maybe they know something we don't.

 

Kelly also looked great as a starter to end the 2015 season.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I have no idea why Sox Prospects puts Kelly in Pawtucket to start the year. He had some success in the pen last year and seems to be talked about as a big part of that pen by the brass, especially if he looks good this spring. Maybe they know something we don't.

 

Kelly also looked great as a starter to end the 2015 season.

 

I realize that, which is why I mentioned "If he looks good this spring." I am not implying that he should be handed a spot in the bullpen, but I like his stuff better than the current alternatives.

[moonslav59]

I realize that, which is why I mentioned "If he looks good this spring." I am not implying that he should be handed a spot in the bullpen, but I like his stuff better than the current alternatives.

 

I do too.

 

He could easily be better than Ross, if he can stay consistent.

 

He's clearly better than Hembree and Abad on paper.

[Spudboy]

I fail to see how wanting him to be a starter is 'another reason' it was a stupid trade. Wanting him to be a reliever would be more of a confirmation that it was a stupid trade.

 

I agree. He was traded for because he was having success as a starter and that is what the Sox needed at that moment.

 

He is a starter until he fails to perform as one.

[Dojji]

There is a difference between"wanting him" to be a starter and "forcing him" to be a starter....

 

And another again between "forcing him to be a starter because you need starters" and "forcing him to be a starter despite having 5 other capable starters, only and solely because of the sunk cost fallacy."

 

There is literally only one reason to prefer Pomeranz over the other 2 options, and that's the trade of Anderson Espinosa for him. Otherwise it's a tradeoff between all of Wright, Pomeranz and E-Rod with no demonstrably "correct" choice between the three.

 

I want Wright because he had the best overall season of the three last year, and I want E-Rod because the alternative is he starts in Pawtucket. While Pomeranz is the third of 3 good choices, rhe only reason to force Pomeranz into the rotation regardless of the merit of the other 2 starters is to justify the Espinosa trade.

 

And let me just throw this out here -- if any part of the reason to pick your 5 starters is based on a player who ISN'T ON THE TEAM ANYMORE, that's a decision that at very best is unlikely to achieve an ideal outcome..

Edited December 27, 2016 by Dojji

[notin]

Having him start the year in the rotation doesn't forever rule out the possibility of using him in the bullpen.

 

True, but the reverse is not necessarily true. Having someone else start the year in the bullpen can very much impede their ability to move into the rotation...

[notin]

I agree. He was traded for because he was having success as a starter and that is what the Sox needed at that moment.

 

He is a starter until he fails to perform as one.

 

He spent most of his outings in a Sox uniform performing poorly as a starter. At the end of the year, Buchholz was out-pitching him...

[a700hitter]

Buch has better stuff than Pom, but not worth the additional $10 million.

[moonslav59]

Maybe Sox management thinks Pom is a better starter than the others, and it has nothing to do with the Espi trade, but I do agree that the trade looks worse if Pom is in the pen.

[Hugh2]

One of the reasons they could have Kelly in the rotation in Pawtucket is the lack of rotation depth. Yes the top 3 looks strong and 2 out of the 3 of Wright/Erod/Pom looks very promising as well. However we all know that MLB rotations will use over 6 starters during the course of a season and after those 6 your depth in AAA is Owens, Johnson, and Elias. Not saying there aren't other options and moves could be made but that I at least think would be the argument for Kelly in the rotation in Pawtucket.

 

It would be nice to see the Sox pick up a few depth options, I'm intrigued but what Kelly could do out of the pen if he committed himself there full time.

[Nick]

Again, is anyone paying attention to what DD is saying?

 

Starting job is E Rod to lose. Jesus...any of you coached before? Do you know what that means?

 

This is akin to Clay B discussion. He was gone when we traded for Sale.

Edited December 27, 2016 by Nick