2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread

[a700hitter]

Yeah, but now more of you guys might agree.

Not interested in 2020-21

[harmony]

Ain't that the truth!

 

That's why I'm suggesting a trade.

That's why I was suggesting a cost-saving Red Sox trade of Clay Buchholz for Seth Smith before the Sox opted for the lesser bat but glitzier glove of Mitch Moreland.

 

Now I don't see a good match unless the Red Sox take the one-year, $6 million commitment to reliever Steve Cishek, who may miss the start of the 2017 season after undergoing labrum surgery on his hip.

 

Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto made nonstop moves the first month of the offseason before heading to the Winter Meetings with the goal of landing a mid-rotation starter. Dipoto may walk away from the meetings with only rotation depth in 28-year-old San Francisco righthander Chris Heston, who missed much of the 2016 season after tossing a no-hitter among his 31 starts in 2015.

 

The search continues:

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I see a Buchholz trade as something akin to a salary dump that would net a decent prospect, but probably not a great one. In contrast, I think Pomeranz has more value (team control for two years) and can bring back an excellent prospect. As such, I would like to see the Red Sox trade Pomeranz; Buchholz stays as the 6th starter, bullpen depth.

[moonslav59]

That's why I was suggesting a cost-saving Red Sox trade of Clay Buchholz for Seth Smith before the Sox opted for the lesser bat but glitzier glove of Mitch Moreland.

 

Now I don't see a good match unless the Red Sox take the one-year, $6 million commitment to reliever Steve Cishek, who may miss the start of the 2017 season after undergoing labrum surgery on his hip.

 

Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto made nonstop moves the first month of the offseason before heading to the Winter Meetings with the goal of landing a mid-rotation starter. Dipoto may walk away from the meetings with only rotation depth in 28-year-old San Francisco righthander Chris Heston, who missed much of the 2016 season after tossing a no-hitter among his 31 starts in 2015.

 

The search continues:

 

 

I don't see a big purpose for trading Buch for a $5-7M player. Yeah, it slips us barely under the limit, but trading Buch would be to give us flexibility and perhaps replenish the farm at the same time. Just buying a guy like Smith allows us to gain someone else for Buch.

 

I would not trade Buch, unless it is for a decent RP'er with 2-3 years of team control at a much lower cost than $6M next year, or just trade him for a prospect that does not even count against the limit, thereby giving us almost $8M of trade deadline flexibility. That may not sound like mush to some, but when you trade for a player 2/3 of the way through a season, only 1/3 counts against the limit. That means we could trade for one or two players whose yearly contract costs total $24M (1/3 of 24 is 8). That opens up a lot more options.

 

I', also fine with keeping Buch, at least until C Smith returns. Trading Buch at the deadline would save us $4.5M, which not surprisingly, puts us just under the limit.

[mvp 78]

I will take any and all sig bets that Buchholz is still in the Red Sox organization on 4/1/17.

[moonslav59]

I will take any and all sig bets that Buchholz is still in the Red Sox organization on 4/1/17.

 

How about by 8/1/16? And what odds will you give?

[Bellhorn04]

How about by 8/1/16? And what odds will you give?

 

What the hell is 8/1/16?

 

C'mon, it's a simple bet and it's only a sig bet. I'm wearing mine right now.

[Slasher9]

I don't hear anyone else mentioning it much.

 

I have been saying it since the trade.

[Slasher9]

That's why I was suggesting a cost-saving Red Sox trade of Clay Buchholz for Seth Smith before the Sox opted for the lesser bat but glitzier glove of Mitch Moreland.

 

Now I don't see a good match unless the Red Sox take the one-year, $6 million commitment to reliever Steve Cishek, who may miss the start of the 2017 season after undergoing labrum surgery on his hip.

 

Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto made nonstop moves the first month of the offseason before heading to the Winter Meetings with the goal of landing a mid-rotation starter. Dipoto may walk away from the meetings with only rotation depth in 28-year-old San Francisco righthander Chris Heston, who missed much of the 2016 season after tossing a no-hitter among his 31 starts in 2015.

 

The search continues:

 

 

why do you think we want to give Clay away? it's a contract year.

he will be our #2 starter by the end of the year.

[moonslav59]

What the hell is 8/1/16?

 

C'mon, it's a simple bet and it's only a sig bet. I'm wearing mine right now.

 

I meant 8/1/17.

 

The trade deadline.

[moonslav59]

why do you think we want to give Clay away? it's a contract year.

he will be our #2 starter by the end of the year.

 

Not "giving him away".

 

Reasons:

1) get a reliable RP'er that is paid little.

2) or get a decent prospect to replace the 20 we've lost in the last 13 months.

3) clear luxury tax space, so we can have the flex to fill a gap later

4) reset the luxury tax from 50% to 20%, so we can go nutty during next winter's much better FA market.

[notin]

I will take any and all sig bets that Buchholz is still in the Red Sox organization on 4/1/17.

 

 

Per MLB Network on Sirius this morning, the Red Sox are prioritizing trading Clay Buchholz over Drew Pomeranz.

 

For a return, hopefully they can get starting pitchers with options who are better than Owens and Johnson. ...

[moonslav59]

I can see the wisdom in keeping Buch too.

 

1) We almost always use over 30 starts from our 6th starter down.

2) We can wait to the deadline to trade him and still get under the luxury limit.

3) He's shown he can pitch like the very best MLB has seen in the last 45 years.

4) It's his contract year.

[notin]

That's why I was suggesting a cost-saving Red Sox trade of Clay Buchholz for Seth Smith before the Sox opted for the lesser bat but glitzier glove of Mitch Moreland.

 

Now I don't see a good match unless the Red Sox take the one-year, $6 million commitment to reliever Steve Cishek, who may miss the start of the 2017 season after undergoing labrum surgery on his hip.

 

Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto made nonstop moves the first month of the offseason before heading to the Winter Meetings with the goal of landing a mid-rotation starter. Dipoto may walk away from the meetings with only rotation depth in 28-year-old San Francisco righthander Chris Heston, who missed much of the 2016 season after tossing a no-hitter among his 31 starts in 2015.

 

The search continues:

 

 

I like Seth Smith a lot better than I like Mitch Moreland. But I can see why they opted for Moreland as their choice. Upgrade the infield defense. Smith brings almost nothing to the team defensively...

[moonslav59]

Per MLB Network on Sirius this morning, the Red Sox are prioritizing trading Clay Buchholz over Drew Pomeranz.

 

For a return, hopefully they can get starting pitchers with options who are better than Owens and Johnson. ...

 

It will have to be to a contender, so I'm not sure how we get ML ready SP'ing back.

 

Maybe a three team deal:

 

Buch and one or two of our our-of-options RP'ers (Abad, Elias & Hembree) for prospects. Then, ship the prospects to a non-contender for a more reliable, cost-effective, veteran SP'er (perferably one with an option remaining).

[moonslav59]

I like Seth Smith a lot better than I like Mitch Moreland. But I can see why they opted for Moreland as their choice. Upgrade the infield defense. Smith brings almost nothing to the team defensively...

 

I think the ability to use HanRam at DH quite a bit, as he has said he doesn't mind doing, is a big enough plus to outweigh the offense gained by Smith over Moreland. Whatever else we may get back from trading Buch or out of Buch by not trading him would be the gravy on this comp.

[Emp9]

true, Sox don't have to be under LT limit at the start of the season, it's where they're at when all is said and done at the end. Still, the way Buch's health usually goes, I'd like to trade him as soon as possible. I'd take a RPer for him ( even though I know the FO said they're done acquiring BP help).

[harmony]

why do you think we want to give Clay away? it's a contract year.

he will be our #2 starter by the end of the year.

2016 was a contract year for righthander Andrew Cashner, who posted a higher WAR than Clay Buchholz over the past four seasons.

 

Cashner's WAR dropped from 2.7 in 2013, to 2.3 in 2014, to 2.3 in 2015 to 0.4 in his contract year.

 

Steamer currently projects Buchholz with a 2017 WAR of 0.5 in 37 innings after previously projecting 1.7 WAR in 23 starts. Even using the higher 1.7 WAR Buchholz and his $13.5 million salary represent limited surplus value because this year 1.7 WAR was valued at ... $13.5 million.

[Slasher9]

Not "giving him away".

 

Reasons:

1) get a reliable RP'er that is paid little.

2) or get a decent prospect to replace the 20 we've lost in the last 13 months.

3) clear luxury tax space, so we can have the flex to fill a gap later

4) reset the luxury tax from 50% to 20%, so we can go nutty during next winter's much better FA market.

 

i 100% get this moon. i was referring to our seattle friend and his terrible offerings for Clay.

[Slasher9]

2016 was a contract year for righthander Andrew Cashner, who posted a higher WAR than Clay Buchholz over the past four seasons.

 

Cashner's WAR dropped from 2.7 in 2013, to 2.3 in 2014, to 2.3 in 2015 to 0.4 in his contract year.

 

Steamer currently projects Buchholz with a 2017 WAR of 0.5 in 37 innings after previously projecting 1.7 WAR in 23 starts. Even using the higher 1.7 WAR Buchholz and his $13.5 million salary represent limited surplus value because this year 1.7 WAR was valued at ... $13.5 million.

 

come on Hill...you know there is always an exception to the rule. stop trying to get my man Clay with your garbage offers.

[Jack Flap]

Realistically, E-Rod is the last guy we should be looking to trade: as a young starter with top-of-the-rotation type upside with 5 years of control, he's exactly what we'd be coveting if he was on another team. However, seeing the cost of pitching right now, I can't help but find myself wondering what sort of return he could bring. If it could land us a young corner bat with similar upside and control, it would have to warrant some consideration, right?

[moonslav59]

true, Sox don't have to be under LT limit at the start of the season, it's where they're at when all is said and done at the end. Still, the way Buch's health usually goes, I'd like to trade him as soon as possible. I'd take a RPer for him ( even though I know the FO said they're done acquiring BP help).

 

I get your point and don't disagree, but remember, O'Sullivan was our 10th guy on the opening day depth chart for SP'ers, and we ended up starting him 4 times in early May! Later, we had to trade "the next Pedro" for Pom Pom to come up with 5 decent starters. Granted, Buch was healthy when we "had to" trade for Pom, so that's a point in your corner, but waiting until things settle has it's merits, too.

[moonslav59]

come on Hill...you know there is always an exception to the rule. stop trying to get my man Clay with your garbage offers.

 

I believe, he secretly thinks Buch will way outperform "Steamer's WAR projections", but he doesn't want to debunk his faith in those projections as his major measuring stick of player value over the years.

 

Am I right, hill?

[moonslav59]

Realistically, E-Rod is the last guy we should be looking to trade: as a young starter with top-of-the-rotation type upside with 5 years of control, he's exactly what we'd be coveting if he was on another team. However, seeing the cost of pitching right now, I can't help but find myself wondering what sort of return he could bring. If it could land us a young corner bat with similar upside and control, it would have to warrant some consideration, right?

 

ERod is a keeper in my book.

 

If Pom could fetch an Espi, trade him (or Buch), if we must trade someone.

[Emp9]

Realistically, E-Rod is the last guy we should be looking to trade: as a young starter with top-of-the-rotation type upside with 5 years of control, he's exactly what we'd be coveting if he was on another team. However, seeing the cost of pitching right now, I can't help but find myself wondering what sort of return he could bring. If it could land us a young corner bat with similar upside and control, it would have to warrant some consideration, right?

 

I see what you're saying, but I'd still rather deal Pomeranz. ANd yes, from the point of view that if Erod were on another team we'd be drooling over him, I agree. I think the only way I'd trade Erod were if it sent Sandoval along in the trade.

[Jack Flap]

ERod is a keeper in my book.

 

If Pom could fetch an Espi, trade him (or Buch), if we must trade someone.

 

He's a keeper in mine as well...I think his trade value is probably tremendous, but we'd be smart to keep him for all the same reasons. Was just thinking out loud (sort of) here. I agree that Buchholz or Pomeranz will probably be the one to go.

[mvp 78]

I meant 8/1/17.

 

The trade deadline.

 

Not interested in that bet. I just don't think they re-signed him solely to be dealt during the offseason. I think they are keeping him, for now, in case they need a 6th starter early in the season due to injury.

[mvp 78]

Per MLB Network on Sirius this morning, the Red Sox are prioritizing trading Clay Buchholz over Drew Pomeranz.

 

For a return, hopefully they can get starting pitchers with options who are better than Owens and Johnson. ...

 

I wouldn't trade either at the moment.

[mvp 78]

Realistically, E-Rod is the last guy we should be looking to trade: as a young starter with top-of-the-rotation type upside with 5 years of control, he's exactly what we'd be coveting if he was on another team. However, seeing the cost of pitching right now, I can't help but find myself wondering what sort of return he could bring. If it could land us a young corner bat with similar upside and control, it would have to warrant some consideration, right?

 

At this point, is the top of the rotation upside still there? He has yet to put in a consistent run of good performances. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=13164&position=P&type=&gds=&gde=&season=all

 

Of course, I hope he can prove me wrong this year.

[moonslav59]

Not interested in that bet. I just don't think they re-signed him solely to be dealt during the offseason. I think they are keeping him, for now, in case they need a 6th starter early in the season due to injury.

 

I don't think they anticipated having Sale when they gave Buch his option either, but I agree, the odds are less than 50-50 Buch is traded by opening day. They might be even odds by 8/2/17.