2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread

[a700hitter]

[h=2]Anthony Ranaudo Signs With KBO’s Samsung Lions[/h]By Jeff Todd | November 22, 2016 at 7:53pm CDT

Righty Anthony Ranaudo has signed a one-year deal with the Korea Baseball Organization’s Samsung Lions, the club announced (h/t Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net, on Twitter). The 27-year-old, who was released by the White Sox to pursue the opportunity, will earn a $1.05MM salary.

Once a top-100 prospect in the Red Sox organization, Ranaudo has seen action in each of the last three major league seasons. The results, though, haven’t been very promising. He owns a 7.01 ERA over 86 frames and has recorded both 44 strikeouts and walks.

He is one of a long line of pitching prospects that got everyone excited and then flopped.

[moonslav59]

He is one of a long line of pitching prospects that got everyone excited and then flopped.

 

Well, we've gotten some good talent by trading our "flops"...

(Note: some pitchers were secondary pieces in these trades)

(Note: some were/are not flops)

 

Pomeranz for Espinoza

Porcello for Alex Wilson & Cespedes

Kimbrel for Logan Allen, Margot, Guerra and Asuaje

Robbie Ross for Ranaudo

Marco Hernandez for Doubront

Miley (>>C Smith) for RDLR & Webster

Peavy for Frankie Montas & Iggy

AGon for C. Kelly & Rizzo

VMart for Hagadone, Masterson & B Price

Melancon for K Weiland & Lowrie

Marlon Byrd for Micharl Bowden

J Bay for Craig Hansen, Manny & Moss

Eric Gagne for K Gabbard & D Murphy

Erik Beddard for Stephen Fife & others

Beckett & Lowell for Anibal Sanchez and HanRam

 

[S5Dewey]

This is the time of year when I'd like to be a fly on the wall in the FO, listening to the ideas that are being floated. I'd like to listen to them discuss who wants to trade what player? Who feels which players are untouchable, and why? How often do they agree? How often do they disagree?? What offers have they made and what offers have they rejected? What's their plan for the future, both near and far?

 

I'm aware that no one here has answers to those questions... it's just my Day before Thanksgiving musings.

[Hugh2]

He is one of a long line of pitching prospects that got everyone excited and then flopped.

 

I was never that impressed with Ranaudo. He was a top 100 but never a top 50 prospect, and guys like that flop all the time. When Anthony Ranaudo was a top prospect in the Sox system the system was very weak. I remember in 2011 he was our #3 ranked guy behind Ryan Kalish and Will Middlebrooks. I never saw him as more of a #3 if everything panned out and when his secondaries didn't developed I had hoped he could carve out a role in the bullpen but he never got that chance here and his velocity never really returned either.

[Hugh2]

Well, we've gotten some good talent by trading our "flops"...

(Note: some pitchers were secondary pieces in these trades)

(Note: some were/are not flops)

 

Pomeranz for Espinoza

Porcello for Alex Wilson & Cespedes

Kimbrel for Logan Allen, Margot, Guerra and Asuaje

Robbie Ross for Ranaudo

Marco Hernandez for Doubront

Miley (>>C Smith) for RDLR & Webster

Peavy for Frankie Montas & Iggy

AGon for C. Kelly & Rizzo

VMart for Hagadone, Masterson & B Price

Melancon for K Weiland & Lowrie

Marlon Byrd for Micharl Bowden

J Bay for Craig Hansen, Manny & Moss

Eric Gagne for K Gabbard & D Murphy

Erik Beddard for Stephen Fife & others

Beckett & Lowell for Anibal Sanchez and HanRam

 

 

Prospects flop, no one has a crystal ball and if they did the draft would be a perfect linear chart of highest to lowest WAR (generally speaking) going from the #1 pick down. Better prospects and higher picks tend to pan out more often and have a higher chance of succeeding at an increasing rate the the higher up you go in rankings but to some extent it is and always will be a crap shoot.

[moonslav59]

Prospects flop, no one has a crystal ball and if they did the draft would be a perfect linear chart of highest to lowest WAR (generally speaking) going from the #1 pick down. Better prospects and higher picks tend to pan out more often and have a higher chance of succeeding at an increasing rate the the higher up you go in rankings but to some extent it is and always will be a crap shoot.

 

True, but the list I provided is not even complete. We've traded away a lot of young pitchers and vets as well (Lester, Lackey...).

 

However, look at some of the names we got for them. Somewhere, other GMs valued our guys too, even the ones that flopped.

 

[southpaw777]

He doesn't have to be as good as Machado- just better than Shaw, Holt, Pablo & Co.

 

Not sure he IS better than what we have there now. Why even consider moving your AS SS anyway? Seems counter productive, no? Even mentioning it as an option is not realistic because I hightly doubt hes even an option there right now.

Edited November 25, 2016 by southpaw777

[moonslav59]

Not sure he IS better than what we have there now. Why even consider moving your AS SS anyway? Seems counter productive, no? Even mentioning it as an option is not realistic because I hightly doubt hes even an option there right now.

 

Moving Bogey to 3B now makes no sense, because we have no other SS, but when you have a SS who has failed to improve on defense in 3+ years, I think considering a move in the future (assuming we have a SS that can field better than Bogey someday soon) is not some wild idea.

[jacksonianmarch]

Big FAs won't sign until the CBA is renegotiated. Teams aren't willing to open their coffers completely until they know the lux tax limit which is expected to rise to or past $200 mil

[moonslav59]

Big FAs won't sign until the CBA is renegotiated. Teams aren't willing to open their coffers completely until they know the lux tax limit which is expected to rise to or past $200 mil

 

Word is, the limit will only rise to $200M as the league is willing to give up the comp pick for qualifying offer FAs- which is a huge give-away.

 

The league wants the players to agree to an international draft.

[Dojji]

Dodgers cutting payroll

 

http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-debt-payroll-20161126-story.html

 

The Dodgers, who have spent more than a billion dollars on player payroll in the first four seasons of Guggenheim Baseball Management, face a mandate to reduce debt in order to conform to Major League Baseball rules.

 

The club is expected to reduce payroll for a second consecutive season, with the goal of cutting from about $300 million in 2015 to closer to $200 million in 2018.

 

The team says the reductions are unrelated to baseball’s rules about debt, which demand clubs be in compliance within five years of an ownership change. Rather, the Dodgers say they spent heavily in the early days of Guggenheim ownership in order to be competitive as they rebuilt the organization’s player development program and infrastructure.

 

Let's get the obvious out of the way -- Clayton Kershaw is not walking through that door. Neither is Yasmani Grandal. They need to lose payroll, not their entire franchise identity. That out of the way, anyone you'd like to see the Sox go after?

[Hugh2]

Word is, the limit will only rise to $200M as the league is willing to give up the comp pick for qualifying offer FAs- which is a huge give-away.

 

The league wants the players to agree to an international draft.

 

I really hope they don't institute a draft until after 2017. With regards to what happen to the Sox this past year with penalties and the depletion of their farm systems to trades I'd love to see them go on a spending spree this year in the international market without restrictions.

 

However, if they do decide to have a draft in 2018, you could see a large bidding war in the international signee market this year.

[Nick]

True, but the list I provided is not even complete. We've traded away a lot of young pitchers and vets as well (Lester, Lackey...).

 

However, look at some of the names we got for them. Somewhere, other GMs valued our guys too, even the ones that flopped.

 

 

I prefer to think Lester chose free agency rather than he was traded....it's kind of like me resigning knowing I'd get fired if I don't.

[Jack Flap]

Let's get the obvious out of the way -- Clayton Kershaw is not walking through that door. Neither is Yasmani Grandal. They need to lose payroll, not their entire franchise identity. That out of the way, anyone you'd like to see the Sox go after?

 

Oh good, now we can get on to Seager and Urias trade proposals.

 

Seriously, though...A-Gon has 2 years and about $44 million left (hardly extreme by current standards) and would be a good trade candidate if the Dodgers need to cut back. No idea how he'd react to a return to Boston, but we could use a corner bat, and while he's never really been the same hitter since 2011, he's still pretty good. I'd prefer to just sign Beltran, but depending on what we'd have to give up it might be a better option than giving 4-5 years at $20+ million per season and losing a draft pick for Encarnacion.

[moonslav59]

Dodgers cutting payroll

 

http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-debt-payroll-20161126-story.html

 

 

 

Let's get the obvious out of the way -- Clayton Kershaw is not walking through that door. Neither is Yasmani Grandal. They need to lose payroll, not their entire franchise identity. That out of the way, anyone you'd like to see the Sox go after?

 

I like Turner and Jensen, but I don't think we will pay what they want.

[moonslav59]

I really hope they don't institute a draft until after 2017. With regards to what happen to the Sox this past year with penalties and the depletion of their farm systems to trades I'd love to see them go on a spending spree this year in the international market without restrictions.

 

However, if they do decide to have a draft in 2018, you could see a large bidding war in the international signee market this year.

 

When are the international restrictions lifted from the Sox? I thought we got hit with 2 years.

[bosoxmal]

Hmmm.. I wonder if Bogaerts would be willing to move to 3rd.

Moy even worth talking about. Would be like trying to make a catcher out of Swihart again.

[Jack Flap]

When are the international restrictions lifted from the Sox? I thought we got hit with 2 years.

 

My understanding was that we lost the prospects we signed in the 2015-16 signing period and were then barred from signing anyone in 2016-17. Next year we should be free to spend without restriction again (assuming no international draft).

[moonslav59]

My understanding was that we lost the prospects we signed in the 2015-16 signing period and were then barred from signing anyone in 2016-17. Next year we should be free to spend without restriction again (assuming no international draft).

 

That makes sense. That would be the two years.

[harmony]

From Monday's FanGraphs chat with Dan Szymborski:

 

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I acutally wouldn't put it past the Red Sox to short-circuit the whole Shaw/Sandoval question and just sign Turner.

 

12:09

I still think however that if the Dodgers are going to try to get Turner in somehow.

 

A lot of the usual suspects have good 3B situations.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-112816/

[Nick]

From Monday's FanGraphs chat with Dan Szymborski:

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-112816/

 

It will speak volume about what the FO thinks about Moncada if we sign a long term FA at 3B.

[Nick]

Bradley Jr and Swihart and Owens and Johnson for Quintana? Is that enough for Chicago White Sox?

Then trade away Buchholtz for a reliever under team control. Basically a $13M salary dump.

 

Quintana, Price, Porcello, E Rod, Pomeranz and Wright.

[moonslav59]

Bradley Jr and Swihart and Owens and Johnson for Quintana? Is that enough for Chicago White Sox?

Then trade away Buchholtz for a reliever under team control. Basically a $13M salary dump.

 

Quintana, Price, Porcello, E Rod, Pomeranz and Wright.

 

That leaves our OF short. We could play Young FT in LF and move Beni to CF, but out depth would be only Holt and Swihart.

 

If we signed Beltran, perhaps he could bridge us to Basabe or let Moncada try to play the OF.

[Dojji]

It will speak volume about what the FO thinks about Moncada if we sign a long term FA at 3B.

 

Not really, the only positions Moncada definitely can't play are shortstop, catcher, and possibly centerfield.

[Nick]

That leaves our OF short. We could play Young FT in LF and move Beni to CF, but out depth would be only Holt and Swihart.

 

If we signed Beltran, perhaps he could bridge us to Basabe or let Moncada try to play the OF.

 

Just feels like we're financially trapped in a sense that we don't have much flexibility at this point. Best move is to acquire another cost controlled starting pitcher and then trade away Clay Buchholtz.

 

Or do we roll the dice with trading away Buchholtz in spring training if everyone else is healthy? We can focus on getting a reliever via Buchholtz trade.

 

Kimbrel, Ross, Kelly, Barnes, Abad, Hembree, winter singning/trade, spring trade (8)

Edited November 28, 2016 by Nick

[jacksonianmarch]

Owens and Johnson are effectively valueless now. Swihart and Bradley might not be enough, but should get you close

[moonslav59]

Owens and Johnson are effectively valueless now. Swihart and Bradley might not be enough, but should get you close

 

I'm thinking JBJ, Swihart and Moncada (plus scraps) for Quintana, Robertson & Frazier

[Dojji]

Yeah I don't know who people are trying to kid slipping Owens and Johnson into every trade. If we don't want them, why the hell would anybody else?

[a700hitter]

I'm thinking JBJ, Swihart and Moncada (plus scraps) for Quintana, Robertson & Frazier

This is realistic. I would jump at it if I were the ChiSox.

[Dojji]

I'm thinking JBJ, Swihart and Moncada (plus scraps) for Quintana, Robertson & Frazier

 

That will not get you all three of those men. That might just be enough for quintana alone, however, depending on whether the White Sox are in even the slightest way interested in moving Quintana, of course I will remind you yet AGAIN that there's no indication of this whatsoever..