A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[mvp 78]

Swihart on the 25 man roster also makes PH'ing for one or both of catchers easier to do, since the fear of ending up with nobody who can catch is gone.

 

He could also offer depth in LF and possibly at 1B, but I doubt we try to teach him 2 positions mid season.

 

He needs to spend time developing in Pawtucket. Having him sit on the bench or moving him to a new position is NOT the best use of his talent.

[mvp 78]

Harmony I'm sure has never actually seen him play, he's basing everything off projections which are wrong quite a bit. You just see his swing and you know he's eventually going to be a good hitter.

 

This is one of the dumbest things ever written on here (AND I SHOULD KNOW).

[mvp 78]

His second half ops was much higher in 15 once he got comfortable I believe over 800.

 

And when he was super duper comfortable in September and October of that year, he was back down to 726.

 

Small arbitrary sample sizes are fun!

[mvp 78]

Swihart had a .931 OPS during August of 2015.

 

HE COULD EASILY BE A TOP TEN BASEBALLER IN 2017!!! http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/sort/OPS/order/true

[moonslav59]

He needs to spend time developing in Pawtucket. Having him sit on the bench or moving him to a new position is NOT the best use of his talent.

 

I don't disagree, but the same was said last year, and team needs trump prospect development plans. We saw it with Bogey. We saw it with Moncada. We saw it with Beni. We saw it with Swihart in LF last year.

 

Of course, we want to avoid having Swihart sit on the bench more than 25% of the games while in the bigs, but if Pabloi sucks, he could play FT at 3B. If Pablo and Moreland suck, he could play at 3B vs LHPs and DH vs RHPs and maybe catch some to make it so he's playing in over 75% of the games.

 

It's not ideal, but it could happen. To me, bad things would have to happen for him to get called up, so I'm not hoping it happens.

 

Say Swi is hitting .850 and is doing okay catching. Suddenly or not so suddenly, we have a big need at 3B, DH or LF. Rather than trade prospects and/or add salary by trading for a fix, we could try Swihart at a new position and save the prospects and money for a later need or move. How Vaz and/or Leon are doing might also play into any decisions made, so a lot needs to happen for Swi to move to a new position this season. The odds are against it happening.

 

Finding a de Aza type for LF can be done easily, but finding a good 3Bman or DH might cost us more than we are willing to give up.

 

[moonslav59]

And when he was super duper comfortable in September and October of that year, he was back down to 726.

 

Small arbitrary sample sizes are fun!

 

How about an .805 in the second half of 2015 in 168 PAs.

 

It's not a large enough sample size for me, but it's double what some consider legit.

[mvp 78]

How about an .805 in the second half of 2015 in 168 PAs.

 

It's not a large enough sample size for me, but it's double what some consider legit.

 

Fueled by a really hot August against terrible pitching.

[mvp 78]

I don't disagree, but the same was said last year, and team needs trump prospect development plans. We saw it with Bogey. We saw it with Moncada. We saw it with Beni. We saw it with Swihart in LF last year.

 

Of course, we want to avoid having Swihart sit on the bench more than 25% of the games while in the bigs, but if Pabloi sucks, he could play FT at 3B. If Pablo and Moreland suck, he could play at 3B vs LHPs and DH vs RHPs and maybe catch some to make it so he's playing in over 75% of the games.

 

It's not ideal, but it could happen. To me, bad things would have to happen for him to get called up, so I'm not hoping it happens.

 

Say Swi is hitting .850 and is doing okay catching. Suddenly or not so suddenly, we have a big need at 3B, DH or LF. Rather than trade prospects and/or add salary by trading for a fix, we could try Swihart at a new position and save the prospects and money for a later need or move. How Vaz and/or Leon are doing might also play into any decisions made, so a lot needs to happen for Swi to move to a new position this season. The odds are against it happening.

 

Finding a de Aza type for LF can be done easily, but finding a good 3Bman or DH might cost us more than we are willing to give up.

 

 

The best use of Swihart's skillset is at C as most C's can't hit very well. If he can be a serviceable C with a .850 bat, you'd be crazy to move him off the position.

[mvp 78]

The idea that Swihart has "it" solely based on hopes and dreams is very interesting to me.

 

BUT I SAW WITH MY OWN EYES HOW GREAT HIS BAT IS! HIS NUMBERS DON'T MATTER!

 

Armchair scouts are the same type of people who declared Ryan Lavarnway to be "the real deal" in 2011. How'd that work out?

 

Until he hits .800 over the course of a full season, he's not that guy and he shouldn't be expected to be.

[Fisk]

This is one of the dumbest things ever written on here (AND I SHOULD KNOW).

 

Actually your response is stupid have you seen his swing there is a thing called scouting and knowing when a player is going to be a good hitter. Have you actually watched him play not so sure.

[Fisk]

Fueled by a really hot August against terrible pitching.

 

You are reaching.

[Fisk]

The idea that Swihart has "it" solely based on hopes and dreams is very interesting to me.

 

BUT I SAW WITH MY OWN EYES HOW GREAT HIS BAT IS! HIS NUMBERS DON'T MATTER!

 

Armchair scouts are the same type of people who declared Ryan Lavarnway to be "the real deal" in 2011. How'd that work out?

 

Until he hits .800 over the course of a full season, he's not that guy and he shouldn't be expected to be.

 

No one who knows baseball thought he was a sure thing many holes in his swing.

[Fisk]

Swihart had a .931 OPS during August of 2015.

 

HE COULD EASILY BE A TOP TEN BASEBALLER IN 2017!!! http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/sort/OPS/order/true

 

No one is saying he will be top ten in baseball, you are being ridiculous. We are saying he has the potential, just like every scouting service in baseball has said he has .

[Spudboy]

Trade Dustin Pedroia!!!!!!

[Fisk]

Trade Dustin Pedroia!!!!!!

Nice way to lighten it up.

[harmony]

Harmony I'm sure has never actually seen him play, he's basing everything off projections which are wrong quite a bit. You just see his swing and you know he's eventually going to be a good hitter.

 

You are totally right he was rushed to the majors in 15, and actually had a very good second half with the bat.

I understand that Blake Swihart made his MLB debut after only 38 games at Triple A but I would note that Swihart made his MLB debut at age 23 years, 29 days, a more advanced age than the debut ages of four of the six catchers in the 2016 All Star game (and older than the debut ages of Gary Sanchez, Mike Zunino, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Yadier Molina, Joe Mauer, Brian McCann and Kyle Schwarber).

[Fisk]

I understand that Blake Swihart made his MLB debut after only 38 games at Triple A but I would note that Swihart made his MLB debut at age 23 years, 29 days, a more advanced age than the debut ages of four of the six catchers in the 2016 All Star game (and older than the debut ages of Gary Sanchez, Mike Zunino, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Yadier Molina, Joe Mauer, Brian McCann and Kyle Schwarber).

 

And some of these players struggled to begin with, especially Zunino and Salty. Schwarber should not be included in this list he will never be a catcher. Varitek did not become a full time catcher until 27.

 

The sox plan in 15 was for Swihart to have a full year in triple a,since he had only 3 years of catching experience, that didn't happen because of Vazquez TJ surgery.

 

Peter Gammons had an article this winter about the number of teams that wanted to trade for him, Redsox would not trade him. He is still in demand, front offices can see his potential.

[harmony]

Actually your response is stupid have you seen his swing there is a thing called scouting and knowing when a player is going to be a good hitter. Have you actually watched him play not so sure.

Some Blake Swihart swings are better than others:

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/blake-swihart-hits-first-mlb-home-run-for-red-sox-video-060415

 

http://m.mlb.com/tor/video/topic/8877962/v772074283/torbos-swihart-loses-bat-on-a-nasty-knuckleball

[Fisk]

Some Blake Swihart swings are better than others:

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/blake-swihart-hits-first-mlb-home-run-for-red-sox-video-060415

 

http://m.mlb.com/tor/video/topic/8877962/v772074283/torbos-swihart-loses-bat-on-a-nasty-knuckleball

Yes some swings are better then others

[Kimmi]

He needs to spend time developing in Pawtucket. Having him sit on the bench or moving him to a new position is NOT the best use of his talent.

 

I agree that Swihart needs to spend time in AAA focusing on nothing but catching. The idea of having him available to step in at 3B should Pablo fail is a nice idea, but there is a good chance that Pablo will be just fine. And if Pablo sticks at third base, then Swihart is still left with no place to play. On top of that, his development as a catcher would be delayed once again.

 

If the Sox have any desire to see if Swihart can be a major league catcher, and they should, then they need to put him behind the plate and leave him there.

 

Pete Abraham nailed it with the following:

 

The Sox erred last season by making Swihart into a left fielder and not because he got injured. They allowed to him catch only 21 games before having him change positions. It was a reckless, short-sighted decision.

 

So, too, are proposals that Swihart could become a third baseman or a super-utility player.

 

Let him catch this season and see where it leads. A young, athletic catcher with above-average offensive skills is such a rarity. Swihart should be given every chance to succeed as a catcher.

[Kimmi]

Trade Dustin Pedroia!!!!!!

 

I almost spit my drink out.

 

That was hilarious, and so out of the blue.

[Fisk]

I agree that Swihart needs to spend time in AAA focusing on nothing but catching. The idea of having him available to step in at 3B should Pablo fail is a nice idea, but there is a good chance that Pablo will be just fine. And if Pablo sticks at third base, then Swihart is still left with no place to play. On top of that, his development as a catcher would be delayed once again.

 

If the Sox have any desire to see if Swihart can be a major league catcher, and they should, then they need to put him behind the plate and leave him there.

 

Pete Abraham nailed it with the following:

 

The Sox erred last season by making Swihart into a left fielder and not because he got injured. They allowed to him catch only 21 games before having him change positions. It was a reckless, short-sighted decision.

 

So, too, are proposals that Swihart could become a third baseman or a super-utility player.

 

Let him catch this season and see where it leads. A young, athletic catcher with above-average offensive skills is such a rarity. Swihart should be given every chance to succeed as a catcher.

 

Also a very good article I. The Sunday Herald by Jason Masrodonato about Swihart.

[Spudboy]

I understand that Blake Swihart made his MLB debut after only 38 games at Triple A but I would note that Swihart made his MLB debut at age 23 years, 29 days, a more advanced age than the debut ages of four of the six catchers in the 2016 All Star game (and older than the debut ages of Gary Sanchez, Mike Zunino, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Yadier Molina, Joe Mauer, Brian McCann and Kyle Schwarber).

 

That is some cool and useless information. The key point of Swihart being brought up is that he was clearly not ready for a steady diet of MLB ball.

 

Yet he did alright, anyway.

[moonslav59]

Fueled by a really hot August against terrible pitching.

 

Most hitter can credit their OPS on doing very well for a small stretch and/or a stretch vs bad pitching.

 

Besides, Swi's best hitting came vs tougher teams in 2015:

1.571 KCR

1.250 PHI

1.227 NYM

1.032 SEA

.929 CLE

.882 DET

.828 NYY

 

Worst OPS:

.250 MIA

.393 ATL

.399 TOR

.479 TBR

.500 OAK

 

Career OPS vs all pitchers with 5 or more PAs against:

 

2.000 A Simon

1.400 Felix Hernandez

1.167 M Stroman

1.000 M Pineda

1.000 U Jimenez

.929 Tanaka

.900 C Sale

.833 A Colome

,667 M Estras & Y Gallardo

.650 R Osuna

.600 M Wright

.293 R A Dickey

.200 D Smyly, M Moore

.000 Aa Sanchez, K Gausman

 

I don't see a trend of hitting well vs only weak hitters. In fact, I see quite the opposite.

[moonslav59]

The best use of Swihart's skillset is at C as most C's can't hit very well. If he can be a serviceable C with a .850 bat, you'd be crazy to move him off the position.

 

No doubt!

 

An .850 hitting catcher would blow away most of our opponents' catcher's OPS. That's a huge plus.

 

Swihart hitting .850 wouldn't have to become a better than average defender to have plus overall value. It would be great, if he could, and that's why it is worth giving him a good long look at catcher this year.

 

I'm just saying that team needs sometimes trump prospects' growth plans.

[Fisk]

Most hitter can credit their OPS on doing very well for a small stretch and/or a stretch vs bad pitching.

 

Besides, Swi's best hitting came vs tougher teams in 2015:

1.571 KCR

1.250 PHI

1.227 NYM

1.032 SEA

.929 CLE

.882 DET

.828 NYY

 

Worst OPS:

.250 MIA

.393 ATL

.399 TOR

.479 TBR

.500 OAK

 

Career OPS vs all pitchers with 5 or more PAs against:

 

2.000 A Simon

1.400 Felix Hernandez

1.167 M Stroman

1.000 M Pineda

1.000 U Jimenez

.929 Tanaka

.900 C Sale

.833 A Colome

,667 M Estras & Y Gallardo

.650 R Osuna

.600 M Wright

.293 R A Dickey

.200 D Smyly, M Moore

.000 Aa Sanchez, K Gausman

 

I don't see a trend of hitting well vs only weak hitters. In fact, I see quite the opposite.

 

Very good research

[harmony]

And some of these players struggled to begin with, especially Zunino and Salty. Schwarber should not be included in this list he will never be a catcher. Varitek did not become a full time catcher until 27.

 

The sox plan in 15 was for Swihart to have a full year in triple a,since he had only 3 years of catching experience, that didn't happen because of Vazquez TJ surgery.

 

Peter Gammons had an article this winter about the number of teams that wanted to trade for him, Redsox would not trade him. He is still in demand, front offices can see his potential.

In an unattributed direct quote, Peter Gammons reported that "Several teams tried to get in on Swihart, but Dave refused to talk about him."

 

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-primary-storylines-from-the-winter-meetings/

 

I rather doubt that Blake Swihart is untouchable. I suspect other teams, looking to buy low, were not willing to offer up talent that would further trade talks.

[Fisk]

In an unattributed direct quote, Peter Gammons reported that "Several teams tried to get in on Swihart, but Dave refused to talk about him."

 

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-primary-storylines-from-the-winter-meetings/

 

I rather doubt that Blake Swihart is untouchable. I suspect other teams, looking to buy low, were not willing to offer up talent that would further trade talks.

 

Never said he was untouchable no one is, but he's still highly regarded around the league.

 

 

No you like reading and asking questions on Fangraphs chat. Sawchick had a good comment about him today.

[harmony]

Never said he was untouchable no one is, but he's still highly regarded around the league.

 

No you like reading and asking questions on Fangraphs chat. Sawchick had a good comment about him today.

I read that:

12:05

Michael: What spring training battles are your top 3 to watch?

 

12:06

Travis Sawchik: Speaking of the yips, I hope Swihart can get over his throwing issues this spring. I know it’s a good bet he begins in 3A, but I still think he can be a quality regular and he should be able to push the competition in front of him …. I’m curious if Hahn can grab a rotation spot in Oakland

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/travis-sawchik-fangraphs-chat-6/

 

The career trajectory of Mets catcher Travis d'Arnaud, who is three years older than Blake Swihart, might provide an interesting comp:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/02/make-or-break-year-travis-darnaud.html#comments

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/02/make-or-break-year-travis-darnaud.html#comments

 

... or not.

 

Like Swihart, d'Arnaud peaked at No. 17 in Baseball America preseason prospect rankings.

Edited February 28, 2017 by harmony

[mvp 78]

Actually your response is stupid have you seen his swing there is a thing called scouting and knowing when a player is going to be a good hitter. Have you actually watched him play not so sure.

 

^ Lavarnway super fan