A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Kimmi]

Even to remotely suggest that there are any posters here that don't care are on not concerned about the future of our team because of recent deals that have been done is preposterous. Everybody cares! No one really likes to see good prospects traded away! Personally, although I see the moves as being aggressive, when I hear the expression "win now" at any cost, I don't see these moves as being that dramatic. Dramatic for sure but survivable. I'm a middle ground kind of guy. In today's world it kind of looks like there is no place for a middle ground point of view and perspective. I plan to keep right on trudging along though.

 

On the other side of that, even to remotely suggest that there are posters here who won't be able to enjoy this season because we are too distraught over the future is preposterous. We are concerned about the future. We are not getting ready to jump off the Tobin or even losing sleep over it.

 

It's a valid and reasonable concern. For anyone to suggest otherwise is a little short sighted. Being concerned about the future does not preclude being able to enjoy the now.

 

A middle of the ground approach would be to build a team that can win now while at the same time maintaining a strong farm. Not either/or.

[Kimmi]

We are going to have to make some hard decisions in the next few years on who to sign to long term contracts. Some fans are going to be very disappointed because we won't be able to afford everyone. It makes it very important for Benindenti, Devers, Groome, Travis to develop as we hope to help offset some of the losses. Going to be very hard to restock the farm without the advantages of the past, hopefully we find the new advantage.

 

Which is exactly why I am against depleting the farm.

[Kimmi]

We've traded away 7 of out top 10 prospects in one year. (14 out of 21) That is dramatic and drastic.

 

Just talking about concerns, we've been called whiners and implied doomsday apocalyptic naysayes.

 

There can be a "middle ground" and I think that is what I had hoped for. I think Kimmi is pretty close to my position too.

 

True, we could have traded Swihart, Devers and Groome too, so I guess you could call what we have done a "middle ground", but to me and others what we did was at least a little too far to one end of the spectrum.

 

Personally, I'd take back the Pom and Kimbrel trades. With the money and some of prospects "saved" (I'd have traded Margot & Guerra) I would have acquired a not-so-glamorous closer and starter. I'd even feel much better without just the Pomeranz trade and maybe trying to sub Espi for Kopech in the Sale trade.

 

I'm not upset with where we are now, but I'm not going to deny that our future will be impacted.

 

Let's not deny that many posters said, "Don't worry; our farm can be rebuilt," or "We can spend more to fill future needs."

 

Yes, I think you and I are mostly on the same page here.

[a700hitter]

On the other side of that, even to remotely suggest that there are posters here who won't be able to enjoy this season because we are too distraught over the future is preposterous. We are concerned about the future. We are not getting ready to jump off the Tobin or even losing sleep over it.

 

It's a valid and reasonable concern. For anyone to suggest otherwise is a little short sighted. Being concerned about the future does not preclude being able to enjoy the now.

 

A middle of the ground approach would be to build a team that can win now while at the same time maintaining a strong farm. Not either/or.

Some posters get very stressed about stuff that others take in stride or even enjoy.

[moonslav59]

Some posters confuse concern with stressed or very stressed or try to guess what others' feelings and/ or intentions are. Edited February 12, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

The Braves traded for Brandon Phillips and got the Reds to pay $13M out of the $14M owed!

 

The Reds got minor league pitchers Andrew McKirahan and Carlos Portuondo.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Some posters confuse concern with stressed or very stressed or try to guess what others' feelings and/ or intentions are.

 

Let me put it this way: if I say I'm not concerned about our future, it's not because I'm not aware of the potential problems, it's because I see no point in being concerned about it. It's just my position.

[Fisk]

Potential problems abound for all organizations when you look 4 or 5 years out. We should be happy and enjoy the sox for the next few years it could be a fun run.

[cp176]

On the other side of that, even to remotely suggest that there are posters here who won't be able to enjoy this season because we are too distraught over the future is preposterous. We are concerned about the future. We are not getting ready to jump off the Tobin or even losing sleep over it.

 

It's a valid and reasonable concern. For anyone to suggest otherwise is a little short sighted. Being concerned about the future does not preclude being able to enjoy the now.

 

A middle of the ground approach would be to build a team that can win now while at the same time maintaining a strong farm. Not either/or.

 

I'm not the one doing the suggesting.

Do really think that there are people here who aren't concerned about the future of this franchise?

If I don't agree with your approach, it does not mean that I don't care as much about the direction the team is going in as you do. While I do not think that our farm system is the best in baseball right now, I do not think that we are in horrible shape either. At the same time, I think that our major league club is improved.

[Kimmi]

For me it's a philosophical thing. I've become a Zen fan of sorts - I hasten to add that I was only able to do so because of seeing us win it all 3 times.

 

There's not a thing any of us can do about what the team does. I'm fully aware of the possible negative outcomes of some of their moves. But worrying about the future is absolutely pointless suffering.

 

You are right that there's not a thing than anyone can do about what the team does. In that sense, how is my concern about the future any different than all of the endless criticism that we've heard about things like picking up Buchholz' option, extending Porcello when he was pitching badly, or signing Pablo?

[Kimmi]

I'm not sure our overall pitching was going to be good enough, with the top three we have now we really lesson the load on the bullpen, all three should be able to pitch over 200 innings and if Wrights healthy he can too. Should make the pen stronger. We still have our whole young core , along with a couple blue chipper so still coming. Understand your angst but still think organization is in great shape.

 

There is no doubt that our team, pitching staff in particular, is better with Sale on it than without him. We'll just have to disagree on how much of a need he really is.

 

Our organization is in great shape or 3 or 4 years. I will withhold any enthusiasm about the state of the team beyond that until the time draws nearer.

[Kimmi]

Let me put it this way: if I say I'm not concerned about our future, it's not because I'm not aware of the potential problems, it's because I see no point in being concerned about it. It's just my position.

 

And if I say I am concerned about the future, it doesn't mean I'm not enjoying the present.

[Kimmi]

I'm not the one doing the suggesting.

Do really think that there are people here who aren't concerned about the future of this franchise?

If I don't agree with your approach, it does not mean that I don't care as much about the direction the team is going in as you do. While I do not think that our farm system is the best in baseball right now, I do not think that we are in horrible shape either. At the same time, I think that our major league club is improved.

 

I didn't say that you were the one doing the suggesting.

 

No, I don't think that there are people who don't care about the future of the franchise. That said, there have been posts here that have basically stated that they don't care what happens in 3 years or in 2021.

[Bellhorn04]

You are right that there's not a thing than anyone can do about what the team does. In that sense, how is my concern about the future any different than all of the endless criticism that we've heard about things like picking up Buchholz' option, extending Porcello when he was pitching badly, or signing Pablo?

 

I would differentiate them like this: specific moves vs. general organizational philosophy ('win now').

[Kimmi]

I would differentiate them like this: specific moves vs. general organizational philosophy ('win now').

 

Sorry, not buying that Bell. There's still nothing anyone can do about specific moves, so why worry about them?

[Bellhorn04]

Sorry, not buying that Bell. There's still nothing anyone can do about specific moves, so why worry about them?

 

With specific moves it's generally not worrying, it's complaining about results that are right there in front of you.

 

You can't really say anyone 'worries' about the Pablo signing any more.

[cp176]

Potential problems abound for all organizations when you look 4 or 5 years out. We should be happy and enjoy the sox for the next few years it could be a fun run.

 

I really do agree with the way you see this. i know more about what we look like years from now than I ever did before. Quite honestly it used to be a couple of years at a time at best for me. I used to have other things to occupy my time - family and job for the most part. Being retired gives me more time to worry about our Red Sox 5 years from now. Not sure that is a good thing for me. When I was teaching and coaching there is virtually no way I would have been able to participate on a forum board. Either I was too busy or just not that bright. I like this and have learned a lot but the information age still has it s drawbacks. Keep pn keepin on!

[Fisk]

I really do agree with the way you see this. i know more about what we look like years from now than I ever did before. Quite honestly it used to be a couple of years at a time at best for me. I used to have other things to occupy my time - family and job for the most part. Being retired gives me more time to worry about our Red Sox 5 years from now. Not sure that is a good thing for me. When I was teaching and coaching there is virtually no way I would have been able to participate on a forum board. Either I was too busy or just not that bright. I like this and have learned a lot but the information age still has it s drawbacks. Keep pn keepin on!

 

Lol I worry too, even at work

[moonslav59]

Let me put it this way: if I say I'm not concerned about our future, it's not because I'm not aware of the potential problems, it's because I see no point in being concerned about it. It's just my position.

 

Fair enough, but I bet you aren't for trading Groome, Swihart, Travis, Owens and Rauses for Quintana to totally go for the here and now with a major blow to "the future".

[Fisk]

Fair enough, but I bet you aren't for trading Groome, Swihart, Travis, Owens and Rauses for Quintana to totally go for the here and now with a major blow to "the future".

 

That would be overkill and kill any flexibility we have.

[moonslav59]

Cuban Left-Hander Osvaldo Hernandez Declared Free Agent

By Mark Polishuk | February 12, 2017 at 5:54pm CDT

 

Cuban left-hander Osvaldo Hernandez has been declared a free agent and can now sign with any team, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports (via Twitter). Several teams are already interested in the 18-year-old southpaw, including the Astros, Braves, Mets, Padres, Rangers, Reds and Red Sox.

 

Due to Hernandez’s young age, his signing is subject to international bonus pools. (As a reminder of how the international signing system has been altered by the new collective bargaining agreement, check out this refresher from Baseball America’s Ben Badler). One factor that hasn’t changed is that teams who exceeded their international spending limits in the last two July 2 classes are still serving their previously-mandated penalties, i.e. limited to spending no more than $300K on any pool-eligible player. By waiting until this July 2 to sign, Hernandez could open his market up to teams like the Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Angels, Rays, Yankees and Red Sox, as those six clubs would no longer be held to the $300K limit. Boston, it should be noted, can’t sign Hernandez at all until July 2 since the Sox were banned from signing any pool-eligible players whatsoever during this signing class.

 

With significant interest in Hernandez’s services already, however, the young southpaw may not feel the need to wait. Also, since the old CBA’s rules are still in effect until the 2017-18 international signing period begins, Hernandez probably stands a better chance of scoring a richer contract now than he will when the stricter pool rules are instituted after July 2. Of the teams connected to Hernandez already, the Braves, Astros, Reds and Padres have already surpassed their bonus pools for the 2016-17 international signing period, so they would be paying a 100 percent tax on Hernandez’s signing bonus if a deal was reached.

 

Hernandez didn’t appear on any of the top prospects lists from Baseball America, Fangraphs or MLB.com for the current international signing period, though BA’s list didn’t include players who weren’t already eligible to sign. The 18-year-old does already possess a fastball clocked between 92-94mph, according to Sanchez.

[Kimmi]

With specific moves it's generally not worrying, it's complaining about results that are right there in front of you.

 

You can't really say anyone 'worries' about the Pablo signing any more.

 

Actually, I think plenty of people still 'worry' about the Pablo signing.

 

Beyond that, I'm still not buying that there is any difference between the cases, other than who's doing the 'worrying'. I think you're arguing semantics with me. In either case, there is nothing we can do about it, which was the point you were making. I don't see the difference between being concerned about the future, which we can do nothing about, or complaining about current contracts, which we can do nothing about.

[moonslav59]

From time to tome, I find myself wondering what we could be doing with Pablo's money right now. Maybe we're arguing semantics, but I suppose it could be called "worrying" about the signing...still

 

I will say, I'm not suffering over it.

 

[cp176]

From time to tome, I find myself wondering what we could be doing with Pablo's money right now. Maybe we're arguing semantics, but I suppose it could be called "worrying" about the signing...still

 

I will say, I'm not suffering over it.

 

 

 

even better for us - I don't think that John Henry is worrying about it too much either.

[jacksonianmarch]

The only reason why Pablo is on your team is because of the money he is making. That being said, if he is actually motivated and has lost a bunch of weight, he might return to being good. I think the days of .300+ BA are probably over, but if he could hit .275 with 15HR, he could be a good enough player to help you win some ballgames. That being said, he is coming off a significant injury, so let's see who the new Pablo actually is

[Bellhorn04]

Actually, I think plenty of people still 'worry' about the Pablo signing.

 

Beyond that, I'm still not buying that there is any difference between the cases, other than who's doing the 'worrying'. I think you're arguing semantics with me. In either case, there is nothing we can do about it, which was the point you were making. I don't see the difference between being concerned about the future, which we can do nothing about, or complaining about current contracts, which we can do nothing about.

 

Kimmi, my post where I tried to explain my philosophy was in response to this statement by moon:

 

I could be wrong, but I have gotten a very distinct impression that some posters do not feel much concern about the difficulties that are ahead of us.

 

I assumed that I was one of the people he was talking about and I wanted to clarify my position. I'm not unaware of the potential problems ahead, and if I seem unconcerned it's only because I'm choosing to accept that it's an organizational direction and I can't do much but accept it. I get where you and moon are coming from 100%. Like I say I was basically just trying to state my own position. You're probably right that the 'worrying' vs. 'complaining' distinction is largely semantics.

[moonslav59]

The only reason why Pablo is on your team is because of the money he is making. That being said, if he is actually motivated and has lost a bunch of weight, he might return to being good. I think the days of .300+ BA are probably over, but if he could hit .275 with 15HR, he could be a good enough player to help you win some ballgames. That being said, he is coming off a significant injury, so let's see who the new Pablo actually is

 

I think he'd still be on the team at $5M a year. It's not like we have a roster crunch at 25 or 40, and our number of other ML starter quality 3Bmen in the system is virtually nill.

 

He might have been traded, if he was making $5M, but I don't think he'd have been DFA'd. (Not a certainty though)

[moonslav59]

Kimmi, my post where I tried to explain my philosophy was in response to this statement by moon:

 

I could be wrong, but I have gotten a very distinct impression that some posters do not feel much concern about the difficulties that are ahead of us.

 

I assumed that I was one of the people he was talking about and I wanted to clarify my position. I'm not unaware of the potential problems ahead, and if I seem unconcerned it's only because I'm choosing to accept that it's an organizational direction and I can't do much but accept it. I get where you and moon are coming from 100%. Like I say I was basically just trying to state my own position. You're probably right that the 'worrying' vs. 'complaining' distinction is largely semantics.

 

I didn't mean you. You have been very clear about knowing it's not going to be easy down the road.

 

If you go back and look at some of the posts made after the Sale trade, there were many responses that seemed to or blatantly said there was nothing to worry about concerning our long term future. Statements such as, "We will rebuild the farm by then," or "We can spend more," were thrown about. When questioned for further details on how we could do that, some of us were accused of whining, complaining, not wanting to trade any prospects, and more recently, "suffering". It was implied by some that we could not enjoy the present, because we had concerns about the future.

 

I'm not trying to convince everyone to worry or be concerned. Some people just aren't wired that way, or they have other reasons for not being or voicing their concerns. I'm fine with that. I welcome a variety of opinions. My responses and statements have largely been to try and detail just how hard it is going to be to rebuild the farm under the new system for those who care to know. My position is one of trying to maintain a balance between the now and the later, and I think we went a little too far to one end of the spectrum. I'm not preaching doomsday, and I'm not calling for DD;'s head or even contemplating the idea. I love the team we have. The Sale trade is like a dream come true for me. It's the type of trade I have advocated for dozens of years. I'm not a worry wart, but I do have the future in mind often in my life and in my view on the Sox. My life goal was to retire at 45, so you can see where my mind is at, in general. I've had a lot of fun in my life that cost a lot of money, like 3 trips to Europe (one for 3 months), 3 trips to Brazil (2 months total), and many other shorter excursions, so I do believe in enjoying the here and now, too.

 

It's not easy constructing a team that looks to be very highly competitive for 3-5 years. I think Ben's contribution has been a little short-changed and assumptions about what he might have done these last 2 years may be baseless. It's hard to find much wrong with what has been done, but I happen to think we went just a little too far with trading away prospects. I'd prefer we still had Espi, but I'm far from suffering over the fact that he's gone.

 

[moonslav59]

even better for us - I don't think that John Henry is worrying about it too much either.

 

I'm not so sure; when he looks at the Pablo line on his expense report, he might cringe a little. (Also the Castillo line.)

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not so sure; when he looks at the Pablo line on his expense report, he might cringe a little. (Also the Castillo line.)

 

No doubt he does cringe. Fortunately he can be consoled by the fact that his franchise has made him a ton of money in spite of such losses. And fortunately for us he's still willing to spend right up to the tax threshold even with Castillo and Craig on top of that.