A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[mvp 78]

Red Sox Sign Mike Olt

By Connor Byrne | February 7, 2017 at 9:21am CDT

 

The Red Sox have signed corner infielder Mike Olt, who announced the news on Instagram (h/t Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). It’s presumably a minor league deal for Olt, who didn’t crack the majors in 2016 after inking a minors pact with the Padres last March.

 

-MLBTR

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

 

If he couldn't get into the IF rotation for the Padres, he's nothing more than a AAA guy. Nothing much to say.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes. It's not like "not all that great" means bad or not good.

 

I take it to mean very good to almost great or partially great, but not ALL that great.

 

Maybe we're just arguing semantics, but Theo did much better with his deals up to Nomar than after, and the team he left Ben was not close to the team we had up to and just after the Nomar trade.

 

You're talking about a 7 year time span.

 

And the team Theo left Ben looks pretty good in retrospect if you're including the prospects. Aside from Crawford and 'clubhouse issues'.

[a700hitter]

If he couldn't get into the IF rotation for the Padres, he's nothing more than a AAA guy. Nothing much to say.

He is a bust.

[mvp 78]

You're talking about a 7 year time span.

 

And the team Theo left Ben looks pretty good in retrospect if you're including the prospects. Aside from Crawford and 'clubhouse issues'.

 

Yup, the team was good enough to win the WS 2 years later with minor tweaks. If the Sox don't bring in Bobby V in 2012, I bet they win 90+ games.

[harmony]

Red Sox Sign Mike Olt

By Connor Byrne | February 7, 2017 at 9:21am CDT

 

The Red Sox have signed corner infielder Mike Olt, who announced the news on Instagram (h/t Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). It’s presumably a minor league deal for Olt, who didn’t crack the majors in 2016 after inking a minors pact with the Padres last March.

 

-MLBTR

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Back in the day I frequently compared Mike Olt and Will Middlebrooks, slugging righthand-hitting third basemen born 13 days apart:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oltmi01.shtml

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/middlwi01.shtml

[Jack Flap]

Red Sox Sign Mike Olt

By Connor Byrne | February 7, 2017 at 9:21am CDT

 

The Red Sox have signed corner infielder Mike Olt, who announced the news on Instagram (h/t Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). It’s presumably a minor league deal for Olt, who didn’t crack the majors in 2016 after inking a minors pact with the Padres last March.

 

-MLBTR

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

 

Keep the "garbage signings" (I forget who coined that term) coming!

[moonslav59]

You're talking about a 7 year time span.

 

No, not really. The deals Theo made up and including to the Nomar trade had residual effects several years later- keeping us competitive and helping us win in 2007.

 

Just because we won in 2007, doesn't mean the moves Theo made after the Nomar trade we "all that great". Certainly, the Beckett/Lowell trade helped us short term. Beckett was a huge reason we won in 2007, and Lowell was a significant part as well.

 

My point was that Theo's deal after the Nomar trade we significantly worse than prior. He had a few good ones, but not like prior to Nomar, where just about every deal, even the small ones worked out well.

 

I'm not home right now, but when I get home, I will dig up a comparative I wrote on "before and after".

 

And the team Theo left Ben looks pretty good in retrospect if you're including the prospects. Aside from Crawford and 'clubhouse issues'.

 

It was worse than what he had after the Nomar trade. The budget was in horrible shape.

[Bellhorn04]

My point was that Theo's deal after the Nomar trade we significantly worse than prior. He had a few good ones, but not like prior to Nomar, where just about every deal, even the small ones worked out well.

 

So he couldn't be expected to keep up that rate of success. Probably no one could.

[moonslav59]

My point was that Theo's deal after the Nomar trade we significantly worse than prior. He had a few good ones, but not like prior to Nomar, where just about every deal, even the small ones worked out well.

 

So he couldn't be expected to keep up that rate of success. Probably no one could.

 

I'll explain more in detail later, when I show the major deals Theo made after the Nomar trade.

 

(Also, many of the draft picks made after the Nomar trade were comp picks from player acquired from and before the Nomar trade, so credit there is compromised to some extent.)

 

The two time periods aren't even close.

 

One could argue the ones in totality made after Nomar were not even average.

[Bellhorn04]

I'll explain more in detail later, when I show the major deals Theo made after the Nomar trade.

 

(Also, many of the draft picks made after the Nomar trade were comp picks from player acquired from and before the Nomar trade, so credit there is compromised to some extent.)

 

The two time periods aren't even close.

 

One could argue the ones in totality made after Nomar were not even average.

 

You don't have to produce that again. I know that on a deal by deal basis he didn't do as well. But I believe all that is secondary to the fact that the team kept winning 90-95 games almost every year.

[Dojji]

and by no means was that winning based only or solely on the 2004 core. Yes the core slowly declines from 2007 on but I think Theo was brilliant in slowing down entropy and keeping the team competitive for longer than we honestly should have expected. And it's beyond debate that Theo was brilliant in 2007 in particular

 

That was what gave us a surprise window in 2013 as the last gasp of the 2007 core

Edited February 7, 2017 by Dojji

[jacksonianmarch]

Exactly Dojji. The 2013 team had Theo's fingerprints all over it

[moonslav59]

You don't have to produce that again. I know that on a deal by deal basis he didn't do as well. But I believe all that is secondary to the fact that the team kept winning 90-95 games almost every year.

 

Based in large part to his deals made prior to the Nomar trade, yes. They kept winning, but by 2011, the team, budget and farm were all worse or much worse than from 2003 until 2007.

 

Theo, himself, admitted they lost focus and let go of some of the principles they began with.

 

I have never said the team sucked after Nomar. I know full well they did not.

 

The decline in our overall system strength finally caught up with us. Ben's FA blunders compounded the problems.

[mvp 78]

After the Nomar trade:

3b went from Mueller to Lowell (good call)

1b went from Millar to Youk (good call)

SS went from OCab to miscellaneoud (OCab became a journeyman so it's not a big loss)

2b went from Bellhorn to Pedroia (remains to be seen if this was a good idea)

LF stayed with Manny until 2008 when Manny forced his way out of town (can't blame Theo here)

CF went from Johnny Damon to Coco Crisp/TEllsbury (good call)

RF went from Trot to JD Drew (good call)

C stayed with Tek until 2011

 

He dumped Pedro and Lowe when other GM's may have kept them on for nostalgia. He found a suitable replacement at closer.

 

Theo kept trying to bring in high priced talent while consistently adding young talent from the farm system. I really can't fault Theo for much of anything from 2005 - 2011. He should probably still be the GM today, but LL had JH's ear and they dumped the wrong guy.

[mvp 78]

Based in large part to his deals made prior to the Nomar trade, yes. They kept winning, but by 2011, the team, budget and farm were all worse or much worse than from 2003 until 2007.

 

Theo, himself, admitted they lost focus and let go of some of the principles they began with.

 

I have never said the team sucked after Nomar. I know full well they did not.

 

The decline in our overall system strength finally caught up with us. Ben's FA blunders compounded the problems.

 

http://soxprospects.com/history.htm

 

The Sox Prospects list from September 2011 looks good enough to me.

[moonslav59]

Exactly Dojji. The 2013 team had Theo's fingerprints all over it

 

Very true, but we don't win had CC and Co remained on the roster (and budget), just like we probably don't win in 2004 with out Dan D's "fingerprints".

 

I will say, and I'll leave it tou you all to decide when I show the deals made, that even from the Nomar trade to the 2007 championship, the quality of trades and signings were "not all that great".

 

Even the Beckett/Lowell for HanRam/A Sanchez deal that was an essential piece to the 2007 championship was a deal that sacrificed some long term benefits for shorter term ones. I'm not criticizing the trade. I loved it then and I still do, but some of the other major and mid level acquisitions during that period were sketchy. When judging just the moves made since the Nomar deal, it is clear to me, there was a very significant drop off- more so after the Marlins deal but still noticeable from Nomar to Beckett.

[Dojji]

I have no idea what Moonslav is on about. There were only 4 key players in 07 that were also key in 2004 -- Manny, Papi, Tek and Schilling. That team doesn't sniff the Series without the new blood brought in after 04, especially Pedey, Youk, Lowell, Pap, Okajima, and Beckett (and to an extent we don't always appreciate, depth guys like Gabbard, Delcarmen and Tavarez).

 

The big acquisitions, Drew, Lugo, Daisuke, Gagne, did less well but from a GM standpoint that actually matters LESS than the fact that the team was more than well eniugh built for it to win even if key pieces underperformed significantly, a sign of a GM on his game

[moonslav59]

http://soxprospects.com/history.htm

 

The Sox Prospects list from September 2011 looks good enough to me.

 

Yeah, Bogey made the list in September, but really?

 

Kalish, Iggy, Ranaudo, Middy, Lava, Pimental & Y Navarro? Those were the players who made the top 6 during the 2011 season.

 

At the time, this was not viewed as a plus farm. In hindsight, Bogey has added some value to it, but others have taken away much more value by becoming busts or getting hurt.

 

2010 had Kelly, Lars and Kalish as our top 3 all year (in various order).

 

The 2011 draft was a very good one, but many posters here still complain about letting VMart and Beltre walk. Those two brought us comp picks JBJ, Swihart, Barnes and Owens.

[moonslav59]

I have no idea what Moonslav is on about. There were only 4 key players in 07 that were also key in 2004 -- Manny, Papi, Tek and Schilling. That team doesn't sniff the Series without the new blood brought in after 04, especially Pedey, Youk, Lowell, Pap, Okajima, and Beckett (and to an extent we don't always appreciate, depth guys like Gabbard, Delcarmen and Tavarez).

 

The big acquisitions, Drew, Lugo, Daisuke, Gagne, did less well but from a GM standpoint that actually matters LESS than the fact that the team was more than well eniugh built for it to win even if key pieces underperformed significantly, a sign of a GM on his game

 

I said "not all that great", and you guys are acting like I said Theo sucked.

[Bellhorn04]

I said "not all that great", and you guys are acting like I said Theo sucked.

 

"Not all that great" generally means the same as "Not very good".

[mvp 78]

The 2011 draft was a very good one, but many posters here still complain about letting VMart and Beltre walk. Those two brought us comp picks JBJ, Swihart, Barnes and Owens.

 

You can't eat your cake and have it too.

 

Theo did a good job of restocking the farm with that draft.

[moonslav59]

"Not all that great" generally means the same as "Not very good".

 

...and not very good usually means good but not VERY good.

 

To me, "not all that great" means close to great or partially great.

[moonslav59]

You can't eat your cake and have it too.

 

Theo did a good job of restocking the farm with that draft.

 

That draft was not the only Theo draft after the Nomar trade effected draft (2006 to 2011).

[mvp 78]

That draft was not the only Theo draft after the Nomar trade effected draft (2006 to 2011).

 

No, but the prospect list for September 2010 looks pretty good (Rizzo, Middlebrooks, Kalish, Iggy, Doubront, Reddick, Lavarnway). Plus he was able to flip others (Kelly and Feuntes) in a trade to get an All Star 1b.

 

You could make a case that the farm was pretty barren in 2008, but all other years included a good deal of talent.

[mvp 78]

...and not very good usually means good but not VERY good.

 

To me, "not all that great" means close to great or partially great.

 

It's semantics, but I believe that most people would assume that "not all that great" would mean "mediocre" or "substandard" rather than "close to great."

[a700hitter]

It's semantics, but I believe that most people would assume that "not all that great" would mean "mediocre" or "substandard" rather than "close to great."

Not in his world, unless you accuse him of saying that Theo was "close to great", then it means the opposite.

[moonslav59]

yankees sign Chris carter for $3M/1..

[mvp 78]

yankees sign Chris carter for $3M/1..

 

That's a steal, IMO.

[moonslav59]

It's semantics, but I believe that most people would assume that "not all that great" would mean "mediocre" or "substandard" rather than "close to great."

 

Yeah, I can see that.

 

I think some people would say Theo's work after Nomar was substandard, but I think Theo did good after the Nomar trade but not great.

[Bellhorn04]

...and not very good usually means good but not VERY good.

 

To me, "not all that great" means close to great or partially great.

 

Seriously? If you ask someone how the food at a restaurant is and they say 'not very good' you interpret that the food is good?