A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[harmony]

who knows? may be we are going after verlander? and not sale.

I suspect the Red Sox want to avoid the luxury tax implications of Justin Verlander's $28 million annual salary for the next three seasons.

 

Because of the luxury tax implications, Chris Sale is worth more to the Red Sox than the lefthander is to a team that is not up against the luxury tax threshold.

Edited December 5, 2016 by harmony

[Wade Boggs]

I agree, my offer doesn't get it done. Nevertheless, I would like to see the Red Sox draw a line in the sand and then move on. There is only so much that I'm willing to give up for a guy who has experienced a decline in velocity and has a violent delivery.

 

Moncada, Erod, Swihart, Holt would get you Sale and Robertson. They would use Holt at third for half of the time and get their rebuilding going. Your offer wouldn't even get you Quintana. IMO

[Wade Boggs]

who knows? may be we are going after verlander? and not sale.

Verlander is older and is making over 25M a year.

[moonslav59]

I would be willing to trade J.Bradley for Sale, but I wouldn't be willing to include Moncada in the deal (I would include one or two lesser prospects but not Devers, Kopech, or Groome). I would trade Moncada for Sale but I wouldn't include J.Bradley in the deal (I would include one or two lesser prospects but not Devers, Kopech, or Groome).

 

Starting pitchers are so fragile, we already know that Sale has experienced a decline in velocity, a warning sign. If the Red Sox overpay for Sale, and then something goes wrong with him, the mistake could affect the Red Sox organization for years.

 

In retrospect, if DD didn't overpay for Kimbrel (a trade I didn't agree with) and didn't trade for Pomeranz, who didn't help the Red Sox at all (an ERA+ of 100), the Red Sox would have the assets to acquire Sale: build a trade around Espinoza and Margot. Thus far DD has not exactly impressed with his decisions on the trade market.

 

Good points. I wonder if Swihart, Margot and Espi would have gotten us Sale.

 

I doubt it would take JBJ and Moncada though.

[moonslav59]

Exactly...and one of the best underpaid player in the league....sale is one of the best pitchers in the league.

 

One big thing about is the luxury tax cost vs actual cost. Only a few teams are worried about the tax...the Sox being one.

 

Luxury cost: $6.5M per year

 

Actual cost: 17:$12M, 18:$12.5M club option ($1M buyout), 19:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout)

 

$37M/3 or $12.3M a year average

 

 

 

[notin]

Good points. I wonder if Swihart, Margot and Espi would have gotten us Sale.

 

I doubt it would take JBJ and Moncada though.

 

The White Sox reportedly wanted Trea Turner and Lucas Giolito from Washington if you need a basis for their demands..

[cp176]

I don't agree . If you have a chance for Chris Sale as long as you can keep Betts , XB and Beni you do it. I can name 5 pitchers I would trade him for.

 

I'm ok with everyone who feels this way. I would not trade Moncada for Sale.

[moonslav59]

The White Sox reportedly wanted Trea Turner and Lucas Giolito from Washington if you need a basis for their demands..

 

But, they didn't ask for Swanson and Albiers from ATL.

[moonslav59]

I'm ok with everyone who feels this way. I would not trade Moncada for Sale.

 

I'm really high on Moncada too. It could be a huge mistake trading him for anyone.

 

I look at it this way: we'd not only get an ace, but we'd also be able to trade a SP'er in a high demand market for something worthwhile, or we'd move a starter to the pen and solve that problem.

 

[cp176]

I'm really high on Moncada too. It could be a huge mistake trading him for anyone.

 

I look at it this way: we'd not only get an ace, but we'd also be able to trade a SP'er in a high demand market for something worthwhile, or we'd move a starter to the pen and solve that problem.

 

 

I might see this from a different perspective if I felt that we could not compete without a Chris Sale. We can. I think we owe it to ourselves to wait and see what we have here in this kid. I'll admit that I might seem biased but this one intrigues me. Now, he may not become what the professionals say he might but if he does then he might become one of the best we have ever seen in Boston.

[moonslav59]

I might see this from a different perspective if I felt that we could not compete without a Chris Sale. We can. I think we owe it to ourselves to wait and see what we have here in this kid. I'll admit that I might seem biased but this one intrigues me. Now, he may not become what the professionals say he might but if he does then he might become one of the best we have ever seen in Boston.

 

I hear you, but it seemed like DD went for a win in the next 2-3 years, so now we may be trying to play it both ways and may end up with nothing now, and we gave up enough of the future to damage those chances too.

[cp176]

I hear you, but it seemed like DD went for a win in the next 2-3 years, so now we may be trying to play it both ways and may end up with nothing now, and we gave up enough of the future to damage those chances too.

 

I'm guessing that I know what deals you are referring to. You know how I feel about those deals. None of those prospects come even close to having the skill set that Moncada has. And no, once again, i do not think that DD has done anything to date that should make anyone think that he is not concerned about the future of this team. Now, all that being said, Moncada may not make it and the prospects that we have traded may. That is the way it goes. If he reaches his potential, he is unreplaceable. The others I think could be.

[moonslav59]

I'm guessing that I know what deals you are referring to. You know how I feel about those deals. None of those prospects come even close to having the skill set that Moncada has. And no, once again, i do not think that DD has done anything to date that should make anyone think that he is not concerned about the future of this team. Now, all that being said, Moncada may not make it and the prospects that we have traded may. That is the way it goes. If he reaches his potential, he is unreplaceable. The others I think could be.

 

If we don't win in the next two years (Kimbrel's deal runs out and Price has an opt out) then I hope our longer term future will bring some rings. No doubt, we'd have a better chance with Margot, Espi and others, even if we ended up trading them for longer controlled players.

 

Look, I do thinkw e can win in the next two years, but we're not really close to being favorites, if we can;t spend more than $10M this winter.

[Spudboy]

Thing with Clay is he is not merely costing us $13.5M. He will cost us $27M because he will only provide us with 1/2 season of production.

 

Only reason his name is coming up is because we are at the f***ING COMPETITIVE BALANCE LIMIT. Perhaps having a f***ing #6 pitcher making $13.5M is a luxury we can't afford. Stupid thing is doing same thing over and over and expecting different outcome.

 

I could not agree more. In fact, see my sig which quotes UserName?

[Spudboy]

If he's healthy and doing well, bot significant "ifs", he could start 21-33, but why all of a sudden, do people believe he's going to come through?

 

What has changed?

 

Let some other team pay for the upside potential vs disappointment gamble.

 

I don't know of anyone who expects Buch to make 21-33 starts. That is f***ing nuts. I simply stated that I believe there is a strong likelihood that he starts about half of that.

 

I have never liked his money/production ratio but am resigned to his continued presence on my favorite team and as such don't have a problem with it anymore.

 

But I do still believe that Fatboy is a fat slob and I do attack his character.

[a700hitter]

i don't know of anyone who expects buch to make 21-33 starts. That is f***ing nuts. I simply stated that i believe there is a strong likelihood that he starts about half of that.

 

I have never liked his money/production ratio but am resigned to his continued presence on my favorite team and as such don't have a problem with it anymore.

 

But i do still believe that fatboy is a fat slob and i do attack his character.

lol!!!

[Nick]

For about a year, I have been saying the spending we did last winter was going to put us to the test with out future budget. I'm still not sure we are looking to reset this year, but if not this year than almost certainly next year we will.

 

Next year's FA market is much better, and we have $20M coming off the books in Buch and Young, so it makes sense to try to reset this winter.

from within the system.

 

It will be tough to try and fill all our needs with just about $10M of spending space, so we may have to get creative or pray we get some in system solutions

 

We'll have the same issue of 8-10 guys in arbitration years with one more year of experience. I can see that adding up to another $15M. We are really screwed for near future.

 

We're at $185M with no moves. Say we do nothing. We lose $20M after 2017, $15M will be eaten up by automatic raises.

 

Unless we do something creative, we're pretty much stuck with what we have. Maybe trading is the way to go. If we want to win next two years, maybe you do make the move for Sales without trading away Bradley Jr, then trade Clay and pick up a reliever.

[Nick]

Lets just be honest.

 

Desire to retain Clay Buchholtz comes from the theory that WE are still not confident with our starting rotation, despite having two former Cy Youngs, two all stars from 2016 and a young arm if he's healthy, may become #2 type pitcher.

 

Maybe it's time to simply clean out our farm system (non pitchers) and trade for a White Sox starter. That will allow us to trade Clay B and open up some cap space this year.

 

If it's Moncada and Swihart, then I guess I can choke it down. I will start dreaming about Devers in lieu of Moncada. I'm not Theo's biggest fan but I think this is the type of move he'd make. If you don't look back and look ahead way off in future, all of sudden you have Sales, Price and Porcello at the top of your line up today and still have one of best offenses in the majors.

Edited December 5, 2016 by Nick

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Lets just be honest.

 

Desire to retain Clay Buchholtz comes from the theory that WE are still not confident with our starting rotation, despite having two former Cy Youngs, two all stars from 2016 and a young arm if he's healthy, may become #2 type pitcher.

 

Maybe it's time to simply clean out our farm system (non pitchers) and trade for a White Sox starter. That will allow us to trade Clay B and open up some cap space this year.

 

If it's Moncada and Swihart, then I guess I can choke it down. I will start dreaming about Devers in lieu of Moncada. I'm not Theo's biggest fan but I think this is the type of move he'd make. If you don't look back and look ahead way off in future, all of sudden you have Sales, Price and Porcello at the top of your line up today and still have one of best offenses in the majors.

 

I'm not sure if the market is moving in this direction, though. Teams are starting to place higher and higher value on position players due to the uncertainty with the health of so many pitchers. This is why the Braves and Nats will not include Swanson and Turner for Sale. Moncada is comparable to Swanson and Turner in terms of value.

http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-dansby-swanson-not-sale-even-sale/

 

Alvarez is a poor defensive player, but he could play 1b or 3b in emergency situations. His acquisition would make T.Shaw much less necessary and a possible trade candidate, maybe for a reliever. The Red Sox would still have B.Holt on the 25 man roster, along with Moncada and Sam Travis in the minors. They should shop Shaw to a team desperate for 3b help.

[Nick]

Clay B making $13.5M per year with performance uncertainty is someone holding Sox back from making financial moves. Pablo is so despised for lack of productivity he's worth penny on a dollar in today's market.

 

I'm willing to gamble the #6 spot (we still have five starters as you know) if it comes to that with guys like Johnson, Owens and other deplorables in Sox farm system and find a better use for $13.5M.

[Jack Flap]

Get ready for next offseason's crazy bidding war:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/nippon-ham-fighters-planning-to-post-shohei-otani-after-2017-season.html?fv-home=true&post-id=79147

[moonslav59]

We'll have the same issue of 8-10 guys in arbitration years with one more year of experience. I can see that adding up to another $15M. We are really screwed for near future.

 

We're at $185M with no moves. Say we do nothing. We lose $20M after 2017, $15M will be eaten up by automatic raises.

 

Unless we do something creative, we're pretty much stuck with what we have. Maybe trading is the way to go. If we want to win next two years, maybe you do make the move for Sales without trading away Bradley Jr, then trade Clay and pick up a reliever.

 

In many ways, it's nice to have almost all of our 25 man roster locked up for 2 or more years. The Pablo contract is a bummer, but he's really the only one on the luxury tax budget that is a clear drain. We will be very limited in our spending, but we have a lot of young players who haven't even reached prime yet. We should expect even more production from our 26 and under players over the next 2-5 years. That's something to be hopeful about.

 

My guess is, we reset this year and then go over during next year's much better FA class. The tax will not be that much after a reset, and then we have a lot of money coming off the books after 2018 (luxury tax dollars used):

 

$22M (maybe) on HanRam with his vesting option based on 105+0 PAs (17-18) and passing the physical

$10.5M Kimbrel

$??? Joe Kelly

$??? Drew Pomeranz

$??? Robbie Ross

 

Now, it's not necessarily a good thing we're losing some of these salaries, because some of these players may be hard to replace at the same of less cost, but going over for the 2018 season might set us up to reset again in 2019, depending on how our top prospects are helping fill some of these gaps at a very low cost.

 

Our biggest need areas have some promising prospects waiting in the wings near and far away:

 

3B: Moncada, Devers, Dalbec (Hernandez, Chavis, Dubon)

P: Kopech, Owens, Johnson, TBall, Ysla, Shawaryn (Groome, Raudes, Lakins)

1B (assuming HR moves to DH): Travis or Moncada, Devers or Dalbec from 3B (Longhi, Ockimey)

4th OF'er: Basabe or Moncada

 

There's still room for optimism on our budget of the future, and we there's always a chance we can dump some salary, especially if a prospect beats out a high salary player for his job, and that player is talented enough to have trade value or not need a significant payoff offset.

 

[moonslav59]

Seeing what Melancon is going to get paid by the Giants ($62M/4) makes me wonder what we could get for Kimbrel in trade... probably better than Margot, Guerra and Allen.

 

We'd then have to use Buch or Kelly as a closer, which could become very scary.

 

However, add Kimbrel's $10.5M lusury tax cost to the $10M we have, and maybe we could fill 2-3 needs this winter with low profile players.

 

I'm not saying I want to trade Kimbrel, but word is a lot of teams are in on Chapman and Jansen, so the losers might get desperate enough to significantly overpay for Kimbrel.

[moonslav59]

The Lowrie and Weiland trade for Melancon looks much better now, especially had we kept him and not traded him for Hanrahan & Holt.

[OH FOY]

13.5 million and 1 year rental for Buchholz, might be better to wait at Deadline, and see how season goes. Teams will not give much for Buchholz.

I would use him and Kelley for multiple inning Pitchers, in the middle innings, 6+7 innings, 6 outs, 1 Pitcher. Not 3 outs 2 Pitchers.

[moonslav59]

13.5 million and 1 year rental for Buchholz, might be better to wait at Deadline, and see how season goes. Teams will not give much for Buchholz.

I would use him and Kelley for multiple inning Pitchers, in the middle innings, 6+7 innings, 6 outs, 1 Pitcher. Not 3 outs 2 Pitchers.

 

Waiting until the deadline to trade Buch only saves about $4.5M out of the $13.5M contract.

[moonslav59]

David Ortiz was MLB's best hitter vs RHPs from 2015-2016. That is the one more specific area we look to need help with. Young has been one of baseball's best hitters vs LHPs, so we probably could get by with a decent LH'd bat to platoon with Young.

 

Although Matt Holliday hits righties equally well, I don't see why our team keeps being linked to guys like Napoli. He's been pretty bad vs RHPs.

 

2013-2016 1Bmen vs RHPs (30 players with 900+ PAs)

 

5) EE .913

11) Lind .845

14) Hosmer .811

15) Alvarez .804

18) Ramirez .778

19) C Carter .776

21) B Moss .767

22) Moreland .766

27) Morrison .734

29) Napoli .725

 

Narrow to 2015-2016 (32 1Bmen with 600+ PAs): Napoli finsihed 31st out of 32 with a .718 OPS vs RHPs. He was 5th vs LHPs at .883.

 

Unless we plan on platooning Young in the OF, I don't get the interest in Naps.

 

Edited December 5, 2016 by moonslav59

[OH FOY]

Wasn't worried about Luxury Tax, I was thinking what return would you get. Not much. Might as well keep him for now.

[Kimmi]

I wouldn't bring Koji or Ziegler back. One is over 40 and will get hurt multiple times and land on the DL twice. The other is not a power arm. Barnes and Kelly are not them players. Smith doesn't come back if your lucky until after all star break.

You could trade for Robertson or Davis but without going over the tax it might be hard. The bullpen is not very good. Plus even if they did bring Koji back, he can't pitch on back2back days at his age.

 

I would start by re-signing Koji. Even though his innings would have to be carefully managed, we know that he can handle the 8th inning. Maybe he could hold down the fort until Smith is ready.

 

Relievers are up and down. Once upon a time, Miller was not very good. Now he's lights out. Perhaps Barnes or Kelly or someone else will step it up.

[Kimmi]

Personally, I think the present and the future of this team look pretty good, and by 'future', I mean beyond a 2-3 year window. If Dombrowski makes the right moves and does not rape the farm system, we should be contenders for the foreseeable future. And we should be able to reset the tax in the process.

 

I am getting a sense of urgency from some posters that I'm just not seeing.