A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Eddy Ballgame]

Would they do Buch and Marrero for Cishek?

 

Buch, Owens, Marrero and Barnes for Cishek and Miranda?

 

I don't think the Sox picked up Buchholz' option to trade him for a reliever who just had hip surgery for a torn labrum and won't be ready for the start of next season.

[harmony]

I don't think the Sox picked up Buchholz' option to trade him for a reliever who just had hip surgery for a torn labrum and won't be ready for the start of next season.

This Seattle fan is embarrassed he had forgotten about Steve Cishek's surgery:

 

http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mlb/seattle-mariners/mariners-insider-blog/article108851012.html

 

http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/mariners-announce-surgical-updates-for-taijuan-walker-steve-cishek-and-tony-zych/

[Eddy Ballgame]

This Seattle fan is embarrassed he had forgotten about Steve Cishek's surgery:

 

http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mlb/seattle-mariners/mariners-insider-blog/article108851012.html

 

http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/mariners-announce-surgical-updates-for-taijuan-walker-steve-cishek-and-tony-zych/

 

Hopefully he heals fast and is ready to start the season.

[moonslav59]

Of these three plans, which one would you take (or none). Let's not argue about whether the team would accept the trade or not, let's just choose the one we like best or none of the above.

 

1) Sign EE ($105M/5 with a 6th year team option at $15M with a $5M buyout- making it a $110M/5 of 120/6M deal)

Sign Greg Holland ($20M/2)

Trade: TShaw, Johnson, Basabe & Barnes to CWS for Todd Frazier & David Robertson

 

2) Sign Justin Turner ($85M/5)

Sign Rich Hill ($50M/3)

Trade Moncada, Pomeranz, ERod & Hembree to CWS for Chris Sale & David Robertson

 

3) Sign Rich Hill ($50M/3)

Sign M Melancon ($50M/4)

Sign C Beltran ($25M/2)

Trade JBJ, Moncada, Pomeranz, Owens & Barnes to CWS for Chris Sale, David Robertson & Todd Frazier

 

4) Sign Beltran ($25M/2)

Sign Greg Holland ($20M/2)

Trade: TShaw, Johnson, Basabe & Barnes to CWS for Todd Frazier & David Robertson

 

5) None of the above

[sk7326]

#3 if I had to choose. Frazier kind of sucked last year - but he is probably not that bad. I am much too bullish on Rodriguez to deal him - so absolutely not given the choice.

[Nick]

5) None of the above

[Jack Flap]

I'd say #4.

[DirtDog7]

Trading Moncada is a major No-Go

[moonslav59]

I'd say #4.

 

I think number four has the most chance of happening, but I think we may have to give up more to the CWS than I listed.

 

Here would be the 25 man roster with number 4:

 

1. Beni LF v RHPs/ Young LF v LHPs

2. Pedey 2B

3. Betts RF

4. Beltran DH v RHPs/HanRam v LHPs

5. HanRam 1B v RHPs/Beltran DH (LF @ NL parks)v LHPs

6. JBJ CF v RHPS/ Bogay SS v LHPs

7. Bogey SS v RHPs/JBJ CF v LHPs

8. TFrazier (Moncada AAA) 3B

9. Leon/Vaz (Swihart AAA) C

Bench: Young, Holt, Vazquez, Hernandez

 

SP1 Porcello

SP2 Price

SP3 ERod

SP4 Wright

SP5 Pomeranz

SP6/RP Buchholz

Closer Kimbrel

RP2 G Holland

RP3 C Smith (DL)

RP4 R Ross

RP5 J Kelly

RP6 Abad/Hembree/Scott/Elias

 

[moonslav59]

#3 if I had to choose. Frazier kind of sucked last year - but he is probably not that bad. I am much too bullish on Rodriguez to deal him - so absolutely not given the choice.

 

Number 3 has to make us the AL favorites, but at what cost to the future?

 

1. Beni CF

2. Pedey 2B

3. Betts RF

4. Beltran LF v RHPs/HanRam v LHPs

5. HanRam 1B v RHPs/Beltran DH (LF @ NL parks)v LHPs

6. Bogey SS vs RHPs/ Young LF vs LHPs

7. Frazier 3B v RHPs/ Bogey SS v LHPs

8. Pablo DH v RHPs/Frazier 3B v LHPs

9. Leon/Vaz (Swihart AAA) C

Bench: TShaw, Vazquez, Holt or Hernandez

 

SP1 C Sale

SP2 Porcello

SP3 Price

SP4 ERod

SP5 Wright

SP6/RP Buchholz

Closer Kimbrel

RP2 Melancon

RP3 Robertson

RP4 C Smith (DL)/ R Ross

RP5 J Kelly

RP6 Abad/Hembree/Scott/Elias

 

 

[oldtimer]

Of these three plans, which one would you take (or none). Let's not argue about whether the team would accept the trade or not, let's just choose the one we like best or none of the above.

 

1) Sign EE ($105M/5 with a 6th year team option at $15M with a $5M buyout- making it a $110M/5 of 120/6M deal)

Sign Greg Holland ($20M/2)

Trade: TShaw, Johnson, Basabe & Barnes to CWS for Todd Frazier & David Robertson

 

2) Sign Justin Turner ($85M/5)

Sign Rich Hill ($50M/3)

Trade Moncada, Pomeranz, ERod & Hembree to CWS for Chris Sale & David Robertson

 

3) Sign Rich Hill ($50M/3)

Sign M Melancon ($50M/4)

Sign C Beltran ($25M/2)

Trade JBJ, Moncada, Pomeranz, Owens & Barnes to CWS for Chris Sale, David Robertson & Todd Frazier

 

4) Sign Beltran ($25M/2)

Sign Greg Holland ($20M/2)

Trade: TShaw, Johnson, Basabe & Barnes to CWS for Todd Frazier & David Robertson

 

5) None of the above

 

In your 1, you neglected to mention that we also lose our first round draft choice by signing EE, since a QO has been tendered.

 

I would say your #4 would be my preference of the choices listed. I think Beltran is being sought by Houston so the chances of making that happen are no better than 50/50. Holland is on the risky side with his return from Tommy John surgery. Trading away a starting pitching candidates for one BP guy and a short term 3rd baseman no to mention Barnes, Basabe and Shaw in my view is an unequal trade. We need to keep a reserve of starting pitching depth in the minors.

 

I am not in favor of any of your other possibilities. Don't get me wrong on this, I would love Justin Turner but the cost in $ and players would be very high and he is on the downslope of his career and would be 39 in his final year if we gave him 5. He might be a 3rd baseman for 2 to 3 years and then morph into a DH. Don't want Rich Hill at all.

[moonslav59]

We need to keep a reserve of starting pitching depth in the minors.

 

Only plan #2 diminished the rotation depth by trading 2 SP'ers for Sale.

 

The others kept the SP'er numbers the same.

 

You are right on the loss of a pick by signing EE. That also goes for signing Turner.

[oldtimer]

We need to keep a reserve of starting pitching depth in the minors.

 

Only plan #2 diminished the rotation depth by trading 2 SP'ers for Sale.

 

The others kept the SP'er numbers the same.

 

You are right on the loss of a pick by signing EE. That also goes for signing Turner.

 

The word has it that FA signings will be delayed until at least the date of the signing of the CBA. The current one is set to end on Dec 1st with the hope of the new one being signed close to that time. It is of importance since some clubs will be reluctant to commit money in excess of the allowed amount and will hold off on FA offers until that item is cleared up. Decisions like EE vs C. Beltran may be impacted for the Sox. We are really only a couple of weeks away and shortly after the GM's will meet in Maryland. I think that one runs from Dec 5th thru the 8th. Perhaps some of the concepts put forth by you and others will begin to be realized during those meetings. You are right about Turner, I didn't mention him but clearly we would lose a pick for a very good 34 year old player. If you are familiar with Risk Assessment methodology, then one would hope the FO is also and does a formal RA on each option under consideration.

 

Again, I like the idea of Beltran if we can make that happen. Holland is somewhat risky but I have to assume our experts will have evaluated that risk and determined the proper course of action. If they take care of DH and a setup man in the near term, then we can look to finding a solution, if one is needed, at 3rd base and perhaps more pitching help. The catching position is probably and internal consideration but we and other clubs do not have a high quality solution at this time.

[moonslav59]

The word has it that FA signings will be delayed until at least the date of the signing of the CBA. The current one is set to end on Dec 1st with the hope of the new one being signed close to that time. It is of importance since some clubs will be reluctant to commit money in excess of the allowed amount and will hold off on FA offers until that item is cleared up. Decisions like EE vs C. Beltran may be impacted for the Sox. We are really only a couple of weeks away and shortly after the GM's will meet in Maryland. I think that one runs from Dec 5th thru the 8th. Perhaps some of the concepts put forth by you and others will begin to be realized during those meetings. You are right about Turner, I didn't mention him but clearly we would lose a pick for a very good 34 year old player. If you are familiar with Risk Assessment methodology, then one would hope the FO is also and does a formal RA on each option under consideration.

 

Again, I like the idea of Beltran if we can make that happen. Holland is somewhat risky but I have to assume our experts will have evaluated that risk and determined the proper course of action. If they take care of DH and a setup man in the near term, then we can look to finding a solution, if one is needed, at 3rd base and perhaps more pitching help. The catching position is probably and internal consideration but we and other clubs do not have a high quality solution at this time.

 

The thing about Holland is that (if and when healthy) he can be a closer.

 

He may actually choose elsewhere, because we have a closer (Kimbrel).

[moonslav59]

Just listened to the soxprospect.com podcast with Alex Speier.

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/11/podcast-ep-109-alex-speier-on-ranking.html

 

His Sox Top 10:

1) Beni

2) Moncada

3) Devers

4) Kopech

5) Groome

6) Travis

7) Dubon

8) Basabe

9) Dalbec

10) Raudes

 

Says top 5 are "basically unmatched in MLB right now". The fall off after Dalbec is "considerable" due mostly to recent trades and loss of two international classes. "The stack of trade chips has dwindled..."

 

One concern with Beni is the 4 injuries that have caused himt o miss some time (including his delayed start in the minors due to injury.

 

Devers took a big step forward on defense this year, but may not be ready in 2017. Maybe Moncada will be moved to the OF.

 

On why he has Kopech ahead of Groome: "Some scouts, after watching him pitch, have said Kopech is the best pitcher they have ever scene...One scout has Kopech as the Sox number 2 prospect...Both have high ceilings. Groome may have more ways to get there, but since he's younger, there's more ways not to get there."

 

On Raudes at #10 who struggles to reach 90 mph: "I have him very close to Johnson. Johnson's stuff has always been fringy. He needs a full compliment of pitches working. He's a question mark. Raudes is very creative with a three pitch mix. His delivery can disrupt hitters a la Tiant. Willingness to attack the strike zone with 65 grade command. He's showing average stuff, but there's a good chance something moves up." (Compares him to Ervin Santana.)

 

"Dubon is a legitimate SS.... whereas Hernandez is likely a utility guy...may be best suited at 2B. " Dubon may become a super utility guy as he may be able to play the OF too. Hernandez and Dubon both have impressive hit tools. Marco as a lefty hitter is a plus. If Bogey got hurt for the whole year, the Sox may go with Dubon over everyone else. It may take a while to adjust. By the second half, Dubon should be the number 2 SS on the depth chart. Marrero has dropped off a cliff. He had the worst OPS in the minors and his glove doesn't even look plus anymore.

 

Dalbec "jumped his status" from the draft. Chatham looks like he has a good chance to develop into a MLB starter.

 

The draft looks good as a half dozen players still look to be "in the mix".

 

 

Edited November 17, 2016 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Talk on the CBA negotiaitons:

 

There has reportedly already been consideration of going from 25 to 26 players on the active roster.

 

The new rule under consideration might limit clubs to 28 players for any given game during the final full month of the season, with additional provisions allowing that group to be modified — but not every single day.

[oldtimer]

Just listened to the soxprospect.com podcast with Alex Speier.

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/11/podcast-ep-109-alex-speier-on-ranking.html

 

His Sox Top 10:

1) Beni

2) Moncada

3) Devers

4) Kopech

5) Groome

6) Travis

7) Dubon

8) Basabe

9) Dalbec

10) Raudes

 

Says top 5 are "basically unmatched in MLB right now". The fall off after Dalbec is "considerable" due mostly to recent trades and loss of two international classes. "The stack of trade chips has dwindled..."

 

One concern with Beni is the 4 injuries that have caused himt o miss some time (including his delayed start in the minors due to injury.

 

Devers took a big step forward on defense this year, but may not be ready in 2017. Maybe Moncada will be moved to the OF.

 

On why he has Kopech ahead of Groome: "Some scouts, after watching him pitch, have said Kopech is the best pitcher they have ever scene...One scout has Kopech as the Sox number 2 prospect...Both have high ceilings. Groome may have more ways to get there, but since he's younger, there's more ways not to get there."

 

On Raudes at #10 who struggles to reach 90 mph: "I have him very close to Johnson. Johnson's stuff has always been fringy. He needs a full compliment of pitches working. He's a question mark. Raudes is very creative with a three pitch mix. His delivery can disrupt hitters a la Tiant. Willingness to attack the strike zone with 65 grade command. He's showing average stuff, but there's a good chance something moves up." (Compares him to Ervin Santana.)

 

"Dubon is a legitimate SS.... whereas Hernandez is likely a utility guy...may be best suited at 2B. " Dubon may become a super utility guy as he may be able to play the OF too. Hernandez and Dubon both have impressive hit tools. Marco as a lefty hitter is a plus. If Bogey got hurt for the whole year, the Sox may go with Dubon over everyone else. It may take a while to adjust. By the second half, Dubon should be the number 2 SS on the depth chart. Marrero has dropped off a cliff. He had the worst OPS in the minors and his glove doesn't even look plus anymore.

 

Dalbec "jumped his status" from the draft. Chatham looks like he has a good chance to develop into a MLB starter.

 

The draft looks good as a half dozen players still look to be "in the mix".

 

 

 

Maybe Holt becomes expendable in a trade with these young guys with utility potential. Is he worth more to others then to us going forward?

[oldtimer]

Talk on the CBA negotiaitons:

 

There has reportedly already been consideration of going from 25 to 26 players on the active roster.

 

The new rule under consideration might limit clubs to 28 players for any given game during the final full month of the season, with additional provisions allowing that group to be modified — but not every single day.

 

Those would be interesting developments. That would decrease the number of games with 5 or 6 relievers at the end of the season.

[moonslav59]

Maybe Holt becomes expendable in a trade with these young guys with utility potential. Is he worth more to others then to us going forward?

 

I really like Holt. I think he has high value.

 

However, with our all DH Papi retiring, and Swihart able to play LF in a pinch, I don't see Holt as the number 2 guy anywhere on the field next year, except maybe 3B, if Pablo flops and Moncada takes too long to get ready. I also think Hernandez is pretty close to Holt on the 3B depth chart anyways.

 

I'm not for handing Holt away, but I think in a package, he may be enough to sweeten a deal "just enough" to get who we want.

[moonslav59]

Those would be interesting developments. That would decrease the number of games with 5 or 6 relievers at the end of the season.

 

And, it would allow for more RP'er use during the season, if the 26th man is a pitcher, or it could allow for a pinch runner type, 3rd catcher or other specialty type players.

[mvp 78]

And, it would allow for more RP'er use during the season, if the 26th man is a pitcher, or it could allow for a pinch runner type, 3rd catcher or other specialty type players.

 

I thought they wanted quicker games? Adding extra rp's only exacerbates the situation...

[moonslav59]

I thought they wanted quicker games? Adding extra rp's only exacerbates the situation...

 

1) It hasn't been agreed on yet.

2) I think we may see most teams sticking with the same amount of pitchers but will add a specialist (PR'er, defensive whiz, PH'er type).

Edited November 18, 2016 by moonslav59

[sk7326]

Talk on the CBA negotiaitons:

 

There has reportedly already been consideration of going from 25 to 26 players on the active roster.

 

The new rule under consideration might limit clubs to 28 players for any given game during the final full month of the season, with additional provisions allowing that group to be modified — but not every single day.

 

In September it makes sense to have to freeze a 25-man active roster for each series. You can make injury substitutions, but the injured player has to go on the DL.

[moonslav59]

In September it makes sense to have to freeze a 25-man active roster for each series. You can make injury substitutions, but the injured player has to go on the DL.

 

That would make September less flexible than it already is. I could see a freeze at 28 or 27, or just make it 26 or 27 and keep the rules of roster changes the same as during the year.

[moonslav59]

I know Anibal Sanchez has fallen on hard times, but would the Tigers take Pablo and some cash for him?

[sk7326]

That would make September less flexible than it already is. I could see a freeze at 28 or 27, or just make it 26 or 27 and keep the rules of roster changes the same as during the year.

 

The flexibility should be the same as the other months within a series - it also allows opponents to be able to prepare a bit more reasonably. Honestly in baseball the roster rules are precisely backwards.

 

Seriously, they should start the minor league season later and expand the roster in APRIL when the players are still getting stretched out.

[mvp 78]

I know Anibal Sanchez has fallen on hard times, but would the Tigers take Pablo and some cash for him?

 

I think they'd rather keep Nick Castellanos at 3b.

[moonslav59]

I think they'd rather keep Nick Castellanos at 3b.

 

I was thinking Pablo would DH some as VMart turns 106.

[mvp 78]

I was thinking Pablo would DH some as VMart turns 106.

 

Is VMart retiring?

[moonslav59]

Is VMart retiring?

 

Nope.

 

Maybe Castillo would be a better fit, but it doesn't help our luxury tax budget.