A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Jack Flap]

We already have Moncada. If the whole selling point of Gurriel is that he's big league ready right now that's one thing, if it'd take 12-18 months of minor league time to get him ready... Moncada makes him redundant.

 

Right, I didn't forget about Moncada. I just don't subscribe to this philosophy that you can only have one good prospect at each position at one time...I'd rather have as much talent as you can and figure out what to do with it later. I have high hopes for Moncada, but for all we know, he could be a gigantic bust; if both turn out well, on the other hand, you can always make a trade or position change down the line.

 

Not saying it's a big deal that we didn't sign him, but for an organization that has been barred from signing any significant international prospects for the past two cycles, it seems an idea worth kicking the tires on.

[moonslav59]

Steady decline, yes. Falling off of the cliff before the age of 30, no. It was a bad contract, there is no arguing that. However, we should have been able to get some value out of Pablo during the first 2 years of his contract. The fact that we didn't was really bad luck.

 

I don't disagree, and nothing I have said in any way implies Pablo hasn't been a total bust.

 

I hated the deal at the time, due to his decline and weight issues, but he's still young enough to turn things around.

.

I've said over and over- counting on him for even 1 AB of greatness is a mistake, but that doesn't mean he doesn't deserve a look, assuming he's in much better shape this ST'ing

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Was Sandoval's injury (that ended his 2016 season) a factor in 2015? If YES, then the guy simply hasn't been healthy and should rebound when he regains his health. If NO, then we are looking at a player who had one miserable season with the Red Sox, which sometimes happens. One bad season doesn't necessarily mean that he doesn't have some good years in front of him.

[Kimmi]

I'm not sure if he got a fair chance last year or not. The fact that Sox management put Shaw in the picture so obviously in the spring games suggests to me that they were extremely concerned about Pablo's condition. What we don't really know is exactly what condition they expected to see him in, but their actions suggested that what they saw wasn't it.

 

That whole situation with Pablo last offseason and spring training was odd.

 

The FO was supposedly checking in on Pablo regularly, and we got a report around Christmas that he looked great. Did the FO stop checking in on him after that?

 

I do agree with you that the FO was not happy with Pablo's condition.

[S5Dewey]

Was Sandoval's injury (that ended his 2016 season) a factor in 2015? If YES, then the guy simply hasn't been healthy and should rebound when he regains his health. If NO, then we are looking at a player who had one miserable season with the Red Sox, which sometimes happens. One bad season doesn't necessarily mean that he doesn't have some good years in front of him.

That's a really good question. I don't remember any chatter at all about his shoulder until he went on the DL. I still have the feeling that there was something minor wrong with the shoulder that they used as an excuse to get him off the field in 2016. - something that was going to need attention sooner or later so they did it then to clear the roster spot (and try to preserve Sandoval's reputation).

 

His "girth" is my major concern. I know he's played heavy before but he's not as young as he used to be, and even back then he was no more than adequate defensively.

[moonslav59]

Makes you wonder, if they're checking his weight (more often) this winter.

[Spudboy]

Makes you wonder, if they're checking his weight (more often) this winter.

 

Does the CBA provide for that ability?

[oldtimer]

That's a really good question. I don't remember any chatter at all about his shoulder until he went on the DL. I still have the feeling that there was something minor wrong with the shoulder that they used as an excuse to get him off the field in 2016. - something that was going to need attention sooner or later so they did it then to clear the roster spot (and try to preserve Sandoval's reputation).

 

His "girth" is my major concern. I know he's played heavy before but he's not as young as he used to be, and even back then he was no more than adequate defensively.

 

Maybe they should have tied off part of his abdomen.

[moonslav59]

Does the CBA provide for that ability?

 

I found this from 2013...

 

If you watched the World Series or really any Tigers games last season, then you probably noticed that Delmon Young was a little on the portly side. Maybe not all the way fat, but a little chunky. Considering he once looked like this, I'd say the extra weight was noticeable.

 

The Phillies sure took notice. They put six weight clauses in the outfielder's new one-year contract, according to Dan Gelston of the Associated Press...

[moonslav59]

Curt Schilling's last contract with the Sox had $2M in weight incentives.

[Bellhorn04]

Curt Schilling's last contract with the Sox had $2M in weight incentives.

 

But the question with Pablo is, if weight incentives weren't in the contract he signed, what are you able to do about checking on his condition?

[mvp 78]

But the question with Pablo is, if weight incentives weren't in the contract he signed, what are you able to do about checking on his condition?

 

The same as they did last year: check in on him and hope for the best. If Pablo doesn't want to lose the weight or stay in shape, he just won't.

[moonslav59]

They can't force him to weight checks, but I think there is a winter physical that all players have.

 

I think, if we check on him frequently, at least he knows we're concerned. Whether he lets us weigh him every few weeks is another question.

[mvp 78]

They can't force him to weight checks, but I think there is a winter physical that all players have.

 

I think, if we check on him frequently, at least he knows we're concerned. Whether he lets us weigh him every few weeks is another question.

 

Last year, Farrell saw him in January and said he looked good. One month later, he was back to blimp mode. I don't think checking in on him matters. It's up to Pablo to monitor himself.

[S5Dewey]

Last year, Farrell saw him in January and said he looked good. One month later, he was back to blimp mode. I don't think checking in on him matters. It's up to Pablo to monitor himself.

 

I'm still not sure but Farrell was blowing smoke when he said that. If not, Sandoval put on a lot of weight awfully quickly.

 

But you're right, it's all up to Sandoval and how badly he wants it. I do think he's now been put on notice that if he wants his job he needs come come in several lbs lighter than last year.... and stay that way.

[mvp 78]

I'm still not sure but Farrell was blowing smoke when he said that. If not, Sandoval put on a lot of weight awfully quickly.

 

But you're right, it's all up to Sandoval and how badly he wants it. I do think he's now been put on notice that if he wants his job he needs come come in several lbs lighter than last year.... and stay that way.

 

Bill Parcells once said that he always worried about his linemen over Thanksgiving as some of them could "put on their winter coat" over the course of a few days.

[moonslav59]

I'm still not sure but Farrell was blowing smoke when he said that. If not, Sandoval put on a lot of weight awfully quickly.

 

But you're right, it's all up to Sandoval and how badly he wants it. I do think he's now been put on notice that if he wants his job he needs come come in several lbs lighter than last year.... and stay that way.

 

Agreed.

 

You know Pablo has been hearing and reading about himself.

 

If the guy has a shred of pride, he should have been and continue doing everything he can to be in the best shape possible by opening day. He'll have had about 10 months from going on the DL to ST'ing. If he just lost a pound a week, he should be down about 40-45 pounds minimum by ST'ing and maybe 45-50 by opening day.

[Spudboy]

But the question with Pablo is, if weight incentives weren't in the contract he signed, what are you able to do about checking on his condition?

 

Yup. That is what I was getting at.

[moonslav59]

Yup. That is what I was getting at.

 

If Pablo resists us "checking" on his status, then that's a sign of trouble- not that we're not already in "trouble" concerning his contract and projected input going forward.

 

I still think we should plan on zero from Pablo, but hope for the best.

 

We should plan on the second half Shaw showing up, but hope for the first half or somewhere inbetween.

 

We should look for a 1 year bridge to Moncada, and hope Moncada or Devers can take over 3B in 2018.

[moonslav59]

Jeremy Hellickson accepted the QO od $17.2M/1 with the Phillies.

 

Makes you wonder, if they may look to trade that salary.

[Kimmi]

Jeremy Hellickson accepted the QO od $17.2M/1 with the Phillies.

 

Makes you wonder, if they may look to trade that salary.

 

I read a tweet that the Phillies were not pleased that Hellickson accepted the offer. Apparently they really wanted the draft pick, in which case trading him for prospects would make sense.

 

Or perhaps getting him back on a reasonable one year deal then trading him was their intention all along.

[DirtDog7]

I'm jumping onto the "sign Matt Holliday" bandwagon. 37 years old and coming off his worst offensive year in career but there's plenty of reason to believe he'd catch a season or 2 of second wind in Boston. Would definitely see more pitches in the zone while hitting near the heart of our order and believe it or not, he's still only behind Trout for avg fly ball distance. Line drive rate is down but went opposite field more than in recent seasons. He doesn't see extreme splits vs. RHP or LHP and his health shouldn't be a problem as he won't be relied upon as heavily in Boston. Can play 1B, LF, or obviously DH.

 

Should be a cheap option considering what the alternatives will rake in. I'm still more in favor of signing Beltran but it's starting to feel like a team such as Houston will make signing him more pricey than what Dombrowski is willing to sign off on.

[Spudboy]

Why do we want a 1 year or maybe 2 year "solution" at DH?

 

I can see Beltran for two years, but what happens after that?

 

I want to see the Sox maintain how the DH has been used in Boston since 2003.

 

I don't like the idea of counting on DH by committee or only using our current roster to cover the position. I want to replace as much as possible lost production with one player. I don't like the idea of hoping for increased WAR at other positions to replace Ortiz.

 

That won't happen. To believe so is like believing that the gang of 5 were going to be "5 Aces".

[moonslav59]

I read a tweet that the Phillies were not pleased that Hellickson accepted the offer. Apparently they really wanted the draft pick, in which case trading him for prospects would make sense.

 

Or perhaps getting him back on a reasonable one year deal then trading him was their intention all along.

 

I don't think I like Hellickson better than anyone of our top 5-6 starters. He's more reliable than Buch, but I don't like the $17M price tag either.

[moonslav59]

Why do we want a 1 year or maybe 2 year "solution" at DH?

 

I can see Beltran for two years, but what happens after that?

 

I want to see the Sox maintain how the DH has been used in Boston since 2003.

 

I don't like the idea of counting on DH by committee or only using our current roster to cover the position. I want to replace as much as possible lost production with one player. I don't like the idea of hoping for increased WAR at other positions to replace Ortiz.

 

That won't happen. To believe so is like believing that the gang of 5 were going to be "5 Aces".

 

It doesn't have to be by committee. HanRam or Pablo may be best suited to DH by 2017 or 2018 (especially Pablo).

 

We only lose Young off our everyday roster after 2017. We look to have several blocked prospects before Beltran's two years are even up, and it's highly likely one or two will be more than worthy of a FT position based on merit.

 

Let's assume we sign Beltran for two years. Here's how our positional players stack up:

 

Years of control left:

1) Young

2) Beltran

3) Ramirez & Sandoval (assuming we take the buyout)

Bogey

4) Betts , JBJ, Vaz & Leon

5) Pedey, Shaw & Swihart

 

5+ Beni, Moncada, Devers, Travis, Dubon

 

The idea is that Moncada and Devers and maybe even travis will be MLB ready before Beltran's contract is over. The ones that don't take Beltran's slot will take HanRam's and Sandy's the following year.

 

2019

C: Leon/Vaz/Swi

1B: Devers/Travis

2B: Pedey/Holt

3B: Moncada/Shaw (Devers)

SS: Bogey/Hernandez/Dubon

LF: Beni/Basabe (Swihart/Moncada?)

CF: JBJ

RF: Betts

DH: HanRam/Sandy

 

We'd either have a huge contract on the bench or a top young player on the pine.

[a700hitter]

It doesn't have to be by committee. HanRam or Pablo may be best suited to DH by 2017 or 2018 (especially Pablo).

 

We only lose Young off our everyday roster after 2017. We look to have several blocked prospects before Beltran's two years are even up, and it's highly likely one or two will be more than worthy of a FT position based on merit.

 

Let's assume we sign Beltran for two years. Here's how our positional players stack up:

 

Years of control left:

1) Young

2) Beltran

3) Ramirez & Sandoval (assuming we take the buyout)

Bogey

4) Betts , JBJ, Vaz & Leon

5) Pedey, Shaw & Swihart

 

5+ Beni, Moncada, Devers, Travis, Dubon

 

The idea is that Moncada and Devers and maybe even travis will be MLB ready before Beltran's contract is over. The ones that don't take Beltran's slot will take HanRam's and Sandy's the following year.

 

2019

C: Leon/Vaz/Swi

1B: Devers/Travis

2B: Pedey/Holt

3B: Moncada/Shaw (Devers)

SS: Bogey/Hernandez/Dubon

LF: Beni/Basabe (Swihart/Moncada?)

CF: JBJ

RF: Betts

DH: HanRam/Sandy

 

We'd either have a huge contract on the bench or a top young player on the pine.

Pablo as DH? Gagging and vomiting.

[moonslav59]

Pablo as DH? Gagging and vomiting.

 

Then you must be having convulsions thinking of him at 3B!

[a700hitter]

Then you must be having convulsions thinking of him at 3B!

Yes

[moonslav59]

Note: I had HanRam listed first at DH with Pablo as the possible second choice. One could also imagine Devers, Moncada or Travis as the DH in 3 years, if they don't win a FT position elsewhere.

 

[harmony]

Then you must be having convulsions thinking of him at 3B!

A BP Boston blogger discusses a trade for White Sox third baseman Todd Frazier:

 

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/11/2017-offseason-oracle-a-different-type-of-white-sox-trade/

 

I question whether Blake Swihart, Mauricio Dubon, Williams Jerez and Henry Owens would be enough to land Frazier and two to five years of stud reliever Nate Jones (who probably has more trade value than Robertson or Frazier).

Edited November 15, 2016 by harmony