A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

Is that 7 years at 22 mil total? If so, that is so much more palatable than someone like Castillo.

 

Yes, but there may be an opt out clause.

[moonslav59]

fangraph's projected wins for 2017:

 

99 Cubs

93 Red Sox

93 Dodgers

92 Nats

91 Guardians

89 Astros

88 Giants

86 Cards

86 Mets

86 Rangers

85 Yankees

85 Blue Jays

84 Mariners

 

Hard to project before big signings and losses of FAs.

[DirtDog7]

We may lose out on EE, Morales and Beltran.

 

We may have to go to plan x, y or z.

 

I'm okay with passing up EE on draft pick forfeiture alone. Bautista still seems to be a realistic option if he is willing to stay within a 2 years (w/3rd Option) type deal. I'm still more than okay with bringing Napoli back for a year & focusing more on pitching.

[cp176]

I liked Napoli as much as anyone but at this point, I am content that he is somewhere else. Not an answer to anything dh related for us.

[moonslav59]

I liked Napoli as much as anyone but at this point, I am content that he is somewhere else. Not an answer to anything dh related for us.

 

Unless you put HanRam at DH and Naps at 1B, but I'm fine with not having him back.

[cp176]

Unless you put HanRam at DH and Naps at 1B, but I'm fine with not having him back.

 

i considered that before I made my comment. Still the same thanks but no thanks.

[Spudboy]

Yup. I am a bigly Nap fan but I see no clear need for him on this team.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

From another thread:

 

I may have some crazy ideas at times, but I think there is a chance that Pablo will come back and take over 3B.

 

I don't think this is a crazy idea at all. The Red Sox still owe him a lot of money and will try to get some value out the contract. With Ortiz gone, the Red Sox could use the extra LHB (Sandoval is better from the left side). Moreover, with Moncada in the minors, they have a back up plan just in case Sandoval doesn't perform next season. I think Sandoval will be given a half season to prove he belongs as the starter at 3b.

 

As far as Shaw goes, he obviously declined after a hot start. He probably isn't the real deal. He is a nice depth piece, or a possible trade piece, but Farrell didn't show a lot of confidence in Shaw when he replaced him with the Holt/Hill platoon.

[moonslav59]

I'd give Shaw a slight edge at starting the season over Pablo, but it could go either way.

 

Pablo will certainly be given ample opportunity to win the job, or Shaw may end up handing it to him.

 

By July, Moncada may have them both in his rear view mirror.

[Kimmi]

Kendrys Morales has signed with the Jays, presumably taking the Jays out of the picture for Encarnacion. I'm not sure how or if that will affect Encarnacion's contract demands, but that is one less major player competing for his services.

[oldtimer]

I'd give Shaw a slight edge at starting the season over Pablo, but it could go either way.

 

Pablo will certainly be given ample opportunity to win the job, or Shaw may end up handing it to him.

 

By July, Moncada may have them both in his rear view mirror.

 

Pablo would have to show remarkable improvement after essentially being out of baseball for a full year and recovering from injury. Would we go out and sign him if he were just another player who was available? The answer to that is no! So really the only reason for giving him another shot is his big contract and a memory of his ability from a couple of years ago. I would say his chance of making it back are quite slim (no pun intended) so I look at him as a backup plan and not the primary for 3rd base. So if we look at Shaw based on his long term performance and Pablo on his likelihood of returning to a competitive 3rd baseman, I would say we need a different plan A altogether.

[S5Dewey]

I'd give Shaw a slight edge at starting the season over Pablo, but it could go either way.

 

Pablo will certainly be given ample opportunity to win the job, or Shaw may end up handing it to him.

 

By July, Moncada may have them both in his rear view mirror.

 

IMO the only starting positions that are up for grabs going into ST are Catching and 3B and both of them are going to be balancing acts.

 

It looks like Leon has gone back to being Leon again and Vaz's offense is a question mark after being sent down to work on his offense. I see Vaz as having a slight lead in that race because his defense is slightly better than Leon and ..well... his offense couldn't be much worse than Leon's, even if he learned nothing in Pawtucket. Oh... and he's apparently out of options, even if I don't understand why.

Of course, I've always wondered if sending a player down to work on his offense is productive because there's a BIG difference between being able to hit AAA pitching and hitting MLB pitching. The best thing that can be said about doing that is that it gets a player who's not hitting out of the lineup while allowing him to keep playing.

 

As much as I hate to think this, I believe Sandoval has the edge in the 3B position, mostly because the FO will want to try to recoup some of the value there. I'm not optimistic that it's going to work but I understand why they'd want to do it. I've always been a big fan of Travis Shaw because my perception of him is as of someone who comes up with hits in big situations - which may make him a good candidate for being a bench player/PH'er, and if they figure out in June that Sandoval isn't the answer at 3B they still have Shaw to fill the gap until the trade deadline.

[moonslav59]

Pablo would have to show remarkable improvement after essentially being out of baseball for a full year and recovering from injury. Would we go out and sign him if he were just another player who was available? The answer to that is no! So really the only reason for giving him another shot is his big contract and a memory of his ability from a couple of years ago. I would say his chance of making it back are quite slim (no pun intended) so I look at him as a backup plan and not the primary for 3rd base. So if we look at Shaw based on his long term performance and Pablo on his likelihood of returning to a competitive 3rd baseman, I would say we need a different plan A altogether.

 

I'm fine with finding a one year 3B bridge to Moncada/Devers.

 

Pablo came very close to being our opening day 3Bman last spring. I don't think it's that far-fetched to think he can win the job back, assuming he loses weight. He's still young, and T Shaw has serious issues as well. I'm thinking it's close to 50-50 between Shaw and Pablo right now... again, assuming Pablo has and will continue to lose weight before ST'ing.

 

[moonslav59]

Kendrys Morales has signed with the Jays, presumably taking the Jays out of the picture for Encarnacion. I'm not sure how or if that will affect Encarnacion's contract demands, but that is one less major player competing for his services.

 

$33M/3 seems like a good deal for the Jays.

[moonslav59]

It seems increasingly unlikely that the Red Sox will utilize a full-time DH, as Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. “We’re not looking to have just a DH,” said president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. “I think really in today’s game the only way you really do that is to have somebody like David Ortiz and most of the time you really prefer to have some flexibility. It’s not to say somebody won’t settle in most of the time, but your goal is to use the flexibility of the players at this point. We’ll see how that all fits in.” That does leave open the possibility of a regular, of course, and some players who’d profile as a designated hitter — such as big-budget free agent Edwin Encarnacion (who has spent plenty of time recently at first) or the aging Carlos Beltran (who also plays the outfield) — could spend at least some time in the field, possibly allowing the club to slot Hanley Ramirez or others in the hitter-only hole on occasion. It is fair to wonder, too, whether any changes to the CBA — an increased luxury tax floor, if not also the addition of an active roster spot — might change the team’s thinking.

-Jeff Todd

[moonslav59]

IMO the only starting positions that are up for grabs going into ST are Catching and 3B and both of them are going to be balancing acts.

 

..and DH.

[DirtDog7]

I will say the Jays are smart to pounce on the market quick & before demands get out of control. They're getting more for their money and on shorter term deals.

 

I'm not willing to write off Pablo yet either. If he comes into the Spring in the shape he was in, back in August, then he can be productive. Pablo isn't a bad corner infielder when in shape. His Defensive metric went from 5.3 in his last season with SF to -15.1 in 2015. He made nearly 90% of likely plays in 2014. Definitely has to keep that weight under control. Sox are stuck with him and Moncada is knocking on the door.

[moonslav59]

I will say the Jays are smart to pounce on the market quick & before demands get out of control. They're getting more for their money and on shorter term deals.

 

I'm not willing to write off Pablo yet either. If he comes into the Spring in the shape he was in, back in August, then he can be productive. Pablo isn't a bad corner infielder when in shape. His Defensive metric went from 5.3 in his last season with SF to -15.1 in 2015. He made nearly 90% of likely plays in 2014. Definitely has to keep that weight under control. Sox are stuck with him and Moncada is knocking on the door.

 

I'm hopeful he'll be in even better shape than he was in August.

 

If not, he's got no pride, and probably no chance.

[DirtDog7]

I'm hopeful he'll be in even better shape than he was in August.

 

If not, he's got no pride, and probably no chance.

 

Blame the front office. They knew who they were signing to such a deal. It was no secret Panda rebuffed a size-able deal to stay with the Giants b/c they were strict with his diet. A grown man shouldn't have to be forced by other adults to stop eating like a pig but hey... to each his own.

[Spudboy]

I'm hopeful he'll be in even better shape than he was in August.

 

If not, he's got no pride, and probably no chance.

 

And we are not bashing him by saying this Moon. It's just the way it is.

 

I am hopeful that he is in REAL ( not really ) good shape and that he is able to contribute full time for the full season.

 

I am also doubtful.

[Spudboy]

Blame the front office. They knew who they were signing to such a deal. It was no secret Panda rebuffed a size-able deal to stay with the Giants b/c they were strict with his diet. A grown man shouldn't have to be forced by other adults to stop eating like a pig but hey... to each his own.

 

I certainly do not disagree with any of this either.

[moonslav59]

Blame the front office. They knew who they were signing to such a deal. It was no secret Panda rebuffed a size-able deal to stay with the Giants b/c they were strict with his diet. A grown man shouldn't have to be forced by other adults to stop eating like a pig but hey... to each his own.

 

Agreed, but you know the much praised Giants front office really wanted the fat slob back. They were very disappointed he signed with Boston.

 

That's one piece of evidence in Pablo's favor.

 

 

[Kimmi]

I will say the Jays are smart to pounce on the market quick & before demands get out of control. They're getting more for their money and on shorter term deals.

 

I'm not willing to write off Pablo yet either. If he comes into the Spring in the shape he was in, back in August, then he can be productive. Pablo isn't a bad corner infielder when in shape. His Defensive metric went from 5.3 in his last season with SF to -15.1 in 2015. He made nearly 90% of likely plays in 2014. Definitely has to keep that weight under control. Sox are stuck with him and Moncada is knocking on the door.

 

Pablo has always been a large player, and up until 2015, he was a pretty good player. It's not like he had been in great shape then suddenly let himself go when he came to Boston. He may have been heavier than he was in 2014, but he had years with the Giants when he was that big and he played well.

 

It was reasonable to expect some decline due to aging. It was not reasonable to expect Pablo to be as bad as he was.

[moonslav59]

Pablo has always been a large player, and up until 2015, he was a pretty good player. It's not like he had been in great shape then suddenly let himself go when he came to Boston. He may have been heavier than he was in 2014, but he had years with the Giants when he was that big and he played well.

 

It was reasonable to expect some decline due to aging. It was not reasonable to expect Pablo to be as bad as he was.

 

One problem was that he was in steady decline with SF as he neared prime.

[Jack Flap]

MLBTR...

 

The Blue Jays have agreed to a multi-year contract with Cuban infield prospect Lourdes Gurriel Jr., reports MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter). Gurriel, the younger brother of Astros infielder Yulieski Gurriel, is considered one of the top available international prospects and will receive a seven-year, $22MM contract from the Jays, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post

 

Can he play 3B? Not sure why we wouldn't jump in on this given his reputed upside and the pretty modest cost.

 

After Castillo and a couple other high-profile busts, the market may be swinging back to the point where there are some real bargains to be found coming out of Cuba once again.

[Dojji]

Blame the front office. They knew who they were signing to such a deal. It was no secret Panda rebuffed a size-able deal to stay with the Giants b/c they were strict with his diet. A grown man shouldn't have to be forced by other adults to stop eating like a pig but hey... to each his own.

 

I don't care who to blame for the past. I care what Panda is in the future. I too think he deserves a fair shot to prove that his rehabilitation is genuine. But this is also the LAST chance. If he shows up out of shape again he needs to be released outright on the spot and nevermind the roster math.

[Dojji]

Can he play 3B? Not sure why we wouldn't jump in on this given his reputed upside and the pretty modest cost.

 

We already have Moncada. If the whole selling point of Gurriel is that he's big league ready right now that's one thing, if it'd take 12-18 months of minor league time to get him ready... Moncada makes him redundant.

[Kimmi]

One problem was that he was in steady decline with SF as he neared prime.

 

Steady decline, yes. Falling off of the cliff before the age of 30, no. It was a bad contract, there is no arguing that. However, we should have been able to get some value out of Pablo during the first 2 years of his contract. The fact that we didn't was really bad luck.

[Kimmi]

I don't care who to blame for the past. I care what Panda is in the future. I too think he deserves a fair shot to prove that his rehabilitation is genuine. But this is also the LAST chance. If he shows up out of shape again he needs to be released outright on the spot and nevermind the roster math.

 

I can agree with this.

 

All I'm saying is to give him a fair chance. Don't give him a leg up because of his contract, and don't write him off because of what he has done the first two years. Just give him a fair chance. IMO, he never got that last year.

[Bellhorn04]

I can agree with this.

 

All I'm saying is to give him a fair chance. Don't give him a leg up because of his contract, and don't write him off because of what he has done the first two years. Just give him a fair chance. IMO, he never got that last year.

 

I'm not sure if he got a fair chance last year or not. The fact that Sox management put Shaw in the picture so obviously in the spring games suggests to me that they were extremely concerned about Pablo's condition. What we don't really know is exactly what condition they expected to see him in, but their actions suggested that what they saw wasn't it.