8/15 new city, new Dbags

[Maxbialystock]

your problem is solely with word choice, I don't know what to tell you.

 

Goodness me, why didn't I see that? All words should be seen as equal as in love=hate, good=bad, imbecilic=reasonable.

 

It that is what you are saying, I wholeheartedly disagree.

 

Words, including their meanings, not only cover a very wide range, but darn near define us as human beings. Word choice is everything.

Edited August 16, 2016 by Maxbialystock

[Maxbialystock]

I agree with you here, but it's something a lot of managers do that I don't understand. Like you said earlier, the chance of the catcher getting injured is insignificant and even on the rare case that he did Holt can actually catch if absolutely needed. I would bet there's a lot of players who could catch if they had to.

 

Welcome to the discussion. The reason you don't replace Holiday in those circumstances are because he is a good defensive catcher who was doing a very good job in a close game when catcher mistakes could be costly, because the Sox were ahead, and because, even if Holiday strikes out, Farrell could be sure that two very good bats--Benintendi and Pedroia--would have a shot at bringing those guys on 2d and 3d home. Oh, and leaving Holiday in proved to be the winning move.

 

You can't really think that any old player can catch, can you? Are you unaware that catcher is the only position (not including pitchers) where MLB and MILB team always has a fully qualified spare?

[a700hitter]

i wonder if the difference was that there was 0 outs at the time. maybe the Manager thought process is to PH for the catcher only if there is already 1 or 2 outs?

especially the way Beni and Pedey have been swinging the stick. i like my chances right now with those two.

With no outs, you just need a productive out. He should have given himself a better shot of putting the ball in play with no one out to get an insurance run. I only see upside potential in making the switch in that situation and I see no downside. Where is the downside of pinch hitting in that situation? I am not seeing it.

[a700hitter]

Sorry bub, but your team won so you are not allowed to criticize the manager.

Normally, when we win, I just put the pain of Farrell's stupid moves behind and move forward. Yesterday, was a very tense game, and imo Farrell did a horrible job of managing the pitching and batting order late in the game. Whether you are a stathead or not, the moves that he didn't make had a much higher chance of success. They were obvious enough that the hometown announcers questioned/criticized the moves.

[Slasher9]

With no outs, you just need a productive out. He should have given himself a better shot of putting the ball in play with no one out to get an insurance run. I only see upside potential in making the switch in that situation and I see no downside. Where is the downside of pinch hitting in that situation? I am not seeing it.

 

anyone else but the catcher and it's probably a given. differential % of tacking on the run there with or without pinch hitting is probably negligible. unfortunately halladay had a bad AB, HoF didnt do his job, and pedroia couldnt do it with 2 outs. there were 3 chances to get it done. and 2 of the 3 have been raking. if we are down a run (or even tied) i would have more issue with not pinch hitting there. but IMO being up a run it's not worth the risk of catcher injury or even the energy expenditure for Leon. who knows - maybe kimbrell doesnt wiggle off the hook without halladay back there?

[a700hitter]

I agree with you here, but it's something a lot of managers do that I don't understand. Like you said earlier, the chance of the catcher getting injured is insignificant and even on the rare case that he did Holt can actually catch if absolutely needed. I would bet there's a lot of players who could catch if they had to.

I realize that a lot of managers would have done the same thing. Hence, my less than lofty opinion of the whole lot of them. They manage robotically according to the book. The book is the book because it gives you the best percentage of success in most cases. A good manager needs to know when the general rule of the book does not apply. Pinch hitting for Holiday yesterday had no downside, none. It had only upside. Leon is at least as good defensively as Holiday in all respects, so that is not an excuse. The move of pinch hitting for Holiday would have given us a better chance of success by every reliable statistical measure. Letting Pom pitch to Raji Davis as the tying run in the 8th was similarly a very poor use of personnel. He was the one guy that had hurt Pom with a 400 foot blast. We are just lucky that Pom kept him in the park and limited him to a double. The situation was crying out for Ziegler. But Farrell did his usual confused look brain freeze like he just drank a slushy too fast.

 

The players will need to keep picking up the manager who will continue to roll with low percentage moves that hurt his team's chance of success.

[mvp 78]

Normally, when we win, I just put the pain of Farrell's stupid moves behind and move forward. Yesterday, was a very tense game, and imo Farrell did a horrible job of managing the pitching and batting order late in the game. Whether you are a stathead or not, the moves that he didn't make had a much higher chance of success. They were obvious enough that the hometown announcers questioned/criticized the moves.

 

Please, don't use coded language like that. Words matter.

[a700hitter]

anyone else but the catcher and it's probably a given. differential % of tacking on the run there with or without pinch hitting is probably negligible. unfortunately halladay had a bad AB, HoF didnt do his job, and pedroia couldnt do it with 2 outs. there were 3 chances to get it done. and 2 of the 3 have been raking. if we are down a run (or even tied) i would have more issue with not pinch hitting there. but IMO being up a run it's not worth the risk of catcher injury or even the energy expenditure for Leon. who knows - maybe kimbrell doesnt wiggle off the hook without halladay back there?

By the time you get to 2 outs, the probability of tacking on a run drops dramatically. With less than 2 outs the chances are much higher, except when you have a guy that can't put the ball in play. Pedroia torched the ball to the warning track, but with 2 outs it didn't matter. I don't view hitting a 340 foot frozen rope to the warning track as not getting it done. Edited August 16, 2016 by a700hitter

[a700hitter]

Please, don't use coded language like that. Words matter.

It is so much easier to type and say than "sabremetrician". ALso, is stathead a pejorative. My former boss's son is "Statboy" from PTI. When he gets recognized, people still shout "statboy" to him.

[Slasher9]

By the time you get to 2 outs, the probability of tacking on a run drops dramatically. With less than 2 outs the chances are much higher, except when you have a guy that can't put the ball in play. Pedroia torched the ball to the warning track, but with 2 outs it didn't matter. I don't view hitting a 340 foot frozen rope to the warning track as not getting it done.

 

of course with 2 outs the % goes down. no argument there. pedroia didnt get it done no matter how hard he hit the ball. it was an out.

as for my point....again when you have 0 outs and a man on 3rd i dont believe there is much of a statistical difference in scoring at least 1 run holaday-beni-pedey vs PH-beni-pedey.

 

who would you bat?

 

#1

RISP .274

runner on 3rd less than 2 outs: .412

 

#2

RISP .209

ro3lt2o .412

 

#3

RISP ..285

ro3lt2o .327

[a700hitter]

of course with 2 outs the % goes down. no argument there. pedroia didnt get it done no matter how hard he hit the ball. it was an out.

as for my point....again when you have 0 outs and a man on 3rd i dont believe there is much of a statistical difference in scoring at least 1 run holaday-beni-pedey vs PH-beni-pedey.

 

who would you bat?

 

#1

RISP .274

runner on 3rd less than 2 outs: .412

 

#2

RISP .209

ro3lt2o .412

 

#3

RISP ..285

ro3lt2o .327

I would bat Holt or Leon, regardless of the numbers which are SSS. Also, Leon has transformed his offensive game -- his old #'s need to be thrown out.

[Bellhorn04]

I didn't necessarily agree with the move, I wouldn't have complained if Leon pinch-hit. I think Farrell wanted Holaday behind the plate for the 9th because he'd been doing a good job calling pitches and he was more 'into the game' than a cold Leon would be.

 

As I say I didn't necessarily agree, but I think that's what the reason was.

[a700hitter]

I didn't necessarily agree with the move, I wouldn't have complained if Leon pinch-hit. I think Farrell wanted Holaday behind the plate for the 9th because he'd been doing a good job calling pitches and he was more 'into the game' than a cold Leon would be.

 

As I say I didn't necessarily agree, but I think that's what the reason was.

A new pitcher was coming in so there would be no loss of continuity. There was a big upside to the move and no downside, but it doesn't matter because we won.

[mvp 78]

I didn't necessarily agree with the move, I wouldn't have complained if Leon pinch-hit. I think Farrell wanted Holaday behind the plate for the 9th because he'd been doing a good job calling pitches and he was more 'into the game' than a cold Leon would be.

 

As I say I didn't necessarily agree, but I think that's what the reason was.

Is that a real thing though? It's not like Sandy was wandering around in the back playing Pokemon.

[a700hitter]

Is that a real thing though? It's not like Sandy was wandering around in the back playing Pokemon.

I heard thta he was in the toilet texting with Pablo.

[Maxbialystock]

I realize that a lot of managers would have done the same thing. Hence, my less than lofty opinion of the whole lot of them. They manage robotically according to the book. The book is the book because it gives you the best percentage of success in most cases. A good manager needs to know when the general rule of the book does not apply. Pinch hitting for Holiday yesterday had no downside, none. It had only upside. Leon is at least as good defensively as Holiday in all respects, so that is not an excuse. The move of pinch hitting for Holiday would have given us a better chance of success by every reliable statistical measure. Letting Pom pitch to Raji Davis as the tying run in the 8th was similarly a very poor use of personnel. He was the one guy that had hurt Pom with a 400 foot blast. We are just lucky that Pom kept him in the park and limited him to a double. The situation was crying out for Ziegler. But Farrell did his usual confused look brain freeze like he just drank a slushy too fast.

 

The players will need to keep picking up the manager who will continue to roll with low percentage moves that hurt his team's chance of success.

 

You sure don't need mvp78 to defend you. Those two paragraphs are the clearest possible explanation of where you are coming from and why we disagree. You say you have a low opinion of managers, but in fact you expect managers to make just the right move--unfettered by statistics or advice from the bench coach--to overcome any and all shortcomings by the players. And I think most managers make reasonable decisions in almost every circumstance and that it is up to the players to make things happen.

 

I think you are also on record as saying that umpires are too imperfect to be allowed to call balls and strikes. My belief is that they are good enough and that they rarely prevent good teams from winning and bad teams from losing.

 

On another thread I wrote that, while managers and umpires are necessary, they are only the framework for a game that is all about the players.

 

For example, I would not have brought in Abad yesterday, so there I agree with you. But, unlike you, I love the fact that he came through and maybe even turned a corner. To me Abad's success is something to celebrate but to you it's just another chance to excoriate the manager. It is clear you would have been even happier if he gave up a hit or even a dinger.

 

About Holiday. You argue strenuously that there was no downside to pinch-hitting for him but ignore the glaring fact, not surmise, that the downside was that we could have lost the game which in fact was won with Holiday staying in. Here again I celebrate the fact that a newbie, a catcher, contributed to an important win even though he couldn't hit spit.

[Slasher9]

I would bat Holt or Leon, regardless of the numbers which are SSS. Also, Leon has transformed his offensive game -- his old #'s need to be thrown out.

so you wouldnt choose the person with the best numbers. got it.

and you would choose to crucify the manager for choosing the person with the best numbers. got it.

may i ask what an acceptable sample size is to A700 to use for RISP & ro3lt2o? this way i will know for the future.

[Slasher9]

I would bat Holt or Leon, regardless of the numbers which are SSS. Also, Leon has transformed his offensive game -- his old #'s need to be thrown out.

 

additionally. this post contradicts itself. you complain about the numbers calling them "sss". but then a sentence later you say leon old numbers need to be thrown out and just use the new numbers which are an even smaller sample size.

[a700hitter]

You sure don't need mvp78 to defend you. Those two paragraphs are the clearest possible explanation of where you are coming from and why we disagree. You say you have a low opinion of managers, but in fact you expect managers to make just the right move--unfettered by statistics or advice from the bench coach--to overcome any and all shortcomings by the players. And I think most managers make reasonable decisions in almost every circumstance and that it is up to the players to make things happen.

Hey MVP, our relationship has really evolved. Now, people think you are my Knight in shining armor. LOL!! Max, neither MVP nor I need each other to come to our defense.

 

I have a low opinion regarding the intellect and competency of major league managers. Deal with it and move on. If you want to worship them, that is fine with me. But I don't think Mr. Farrell needs you defending his obviously stupid low percentage moves.

 

I think you are also on record as saying that umpires are too imperfect to be allowed to call balls and strikes. My belief is that they are good enough and that they rarely prevent good teams from winning and bad teams from losing.

 

On another thread I wrote that, while managers and umpires are necessary, they are only the framework for a game that is all about the players.

When making an argument, you should get straight the facts that you use as the premise for your argument. Otherwise, you risk invalidating your entire argument. I have never advocated that umpires should be replaced for calling balls and strikes. In fact, I am on record as being against the current use of replay which I believe has gotten to a level of ridiculous hair splitting that just wastes time. SO go back and rethink your whole argument of what you think I think about all of this stuff, because you clearly don't have a handle on it at all. I other words, let's discuss baseball and not me or any other poster. I already told you to buzz off with this s***.

 

For example, I would not have brought in Abad yesterday, so there I agree with you. But, unlike you, I love the fact that he came through and maybe even turned a corner. To me Abad's success is something to celebrate but to you it's just another chance to excoriate the manager. It is clear you would have been even happier if he gave up a hit or even a dinger.

This is just stupid s***. Take a deep breath and let your brain regain control.

 

About Holiday. You argue strenuously that there was no downside to pinch-hitting for him but ignore the glaring fact, not surmise, that the downside was that we could have lost the game which in fact was won with Holiday staying in. Here again I celebrate the fact that a newbie, a catcher, contributed to an important win even though he couldn't hit spit.

It was a low percentage move letting Holiday bat, not surmise.

[a700hitter]

additionally. this post contradicts itself. you complain about the numbers calling them "sss". but then a sentence later you say leon old numbers need to be thrown out and just use the new numbers which are an even smaller sample size.

No, it doesn't contradict itself. I called the RISP with 2 out #'s a sss, not his entire body of work. BTW what are the #'s for RISP with less than 2 outs in late inning situations?

[mvp 78]

Hey MVP, our relationship has really evolved. Now, people think you are my Knight in shining armor.

 

But there's this mud puddle over here and I'd be certainly willing to put my jacket on the ground for you if need be!

[a700hitter]

But there's this mud puddle over here and I'd be certainly willing to put my jacket on the ground for you if need be!

There's no trap door under that jacket?

[Slasher9]

No, it doesn't contradict itself. I called the RISP with 2 out #'s a sss, not his entire body of work. BTW what are the #'s for RISP with less than 2 outs in late inning situations?

so a manager should ignore RISP & ro3lt2o numbers (because they are too sss) and only focus on entire body of work numbers? is that what you are saying?

[Slasher9]

#1

RISP .274

runner on 3rd less than 2 outs: .412

 

#2

RISP .209

ro3lt2o .412

 

#3

RISP ..285

ro3lt2o .327

[a700hitter]

#1

RISP .274

runner on 3rd less than 2 outs: .412

 

#2

RISP .209

ro3lt2o .412

 

#3

RISP ..285

ro3lt2o .327

How many ABs? Are these late inning ABs?

[a700hitter]

so a manager should ignore RISP & ro3lt2o numbers (because they are too sss) and only focus on entire body of work numbers? is that what you are saying?

I am saying that he should put up the clearly superior offensive player in that situation. Would that be Holiday?

[Kimmi]

It is becoming very obvious to everyone but those who are stubbornly dense.

 

No need to resort to insults.

[Kimmi]

I can't take this anymore.. I'm getting chest pains.

 

LOL I don't know how any of us survive a season.

 

I was so bad off in this game, after the Guardians doubled to lead off the 9th, I had to look at the final score to see if we won. (I DVR'd the game so it was already over by the time we I got to the 9th.) Once I saw that we won, I was able to finish watching the 9th. I couldn't handle it otherwise.

[Kimmi]

I just can't understand letting Holiday hit in the 9th with 2nd and 3rd and no one out and a 1 run lead. Other than our pitchers, Holiday is the weakest hitter on the roster. Leon a switch hitter who has been on fire was on the bench. Holt a lefty was on the bench. I haven't heard a good explanation to let Holiday bat. If Farrell left him in for his great game calling skill, I just have to shake my head. It is more likely that Farrell didn't pinch hit because he didn't want to get caught without a backup catcher on the bench, which also makes me shake my head. For those of you who love stats, in what percentage of games, do teams have to replace injured catchers in the final inning or 2? I have to believe that the occurrence is statistically insignificant, and that it would be worth the risk to replace him with a vastly superior offensive player.

 

Don't even get me started about why Ziegler wasn't up and ready to come in against the right handed bats in the 8th inning. Anyway, I hope the players keep bailing out the buffoon.

 

I happen to agree with you on both calls. I would have pinch hit Leon for Holaday, and I would not have allowed Abad to face the righty.

 

That said, I am willing to give Farrell the benefit of the doubt. As far as why Farrell didn't bring Ziegler in, Francona would have countered with a lefty. Farrell preferred the matchup he had with Abad. It worked out.

[Slasher9]

I am saying that he should put up the clearly superior offensive player in that situation. Would that be Holiday?

 

Ok, of the 3 which is clearly superior offensively in that situation? (2nd and 3rd / 0 outs)

#1 has had 1 AB in that situation.

#2 has never had an AB in that situation.

#3 has had 5 AB's in that situation.

which is clearly superior?

 

not much to differentiate in that situation. so leaving that days starting catcher in up by a run to finish his job while giving your everyday catcher a full day off is not an idiotic (or whatever term you want to use) decision. it's a baseball decision.

Edited August 16, 2016 by Slasher9