Swihart To Undergo Ankle Surgery

[moonslav59]

IMO, the FO screwed up last year and ended up hurting the development of both catchers. I would prefer a defensive catcher over an offensive one, but if Swihart proves to be the better overall value, then you have to go with him.

 

Maybe, but at least it gave Leon a window to shine.

[Spudboy]

Apology accepted.

 

I did not apologize. You said Swihart would never be as good a defender as Vasquez.

 

You have not explained how you know this.

 

It's cool though.

[moonslav59]

I did not apologize. You said Swihart would never be as good a defender as Vasquez.

 

You have not explained how you know this.

 

It's cool though.

 

It's the same as saying Swihart will never be as old as Vazquez.

 

Every bit Swihart grows, Vaz does too.

[Spudboy]

It's the same as saying Swihart will never be as old as Vazquez.

 

Every bit Swihart grows, Vaz does too.

 

I have no idea what your point is.

 

No one can pin point exactly how much a player will develop. Swihart is younger. So?

 

Vazquez is older. So?

 

My point WAS ( since neither of you seem to get it ) No one knows how much more Swihart will develop his defense. Now it is true that Vazquez can continue to get better.

 

To say that Swihart will never be as good as a defender as Vazquez is just disingenuous.

 

And I am trying not to insult anyone.

[moonslav59]

I have no idea what your point is.

 

No one can pin point exactly how much a player will develop. Swihart is younger. So?

 

Vazquez is older. So?

 

My point WAS ( since neither of you seem to get it ) No one knows how much more Swihart will develop his defense. Now it is true that Vazquez can continue to get better.

 

To say that Swihart will never be as good as a defender as Vazquez is just disingenuous.

 

And I am trying not to insult anyone.

 

I was joking.

 

I think the theory is that as Swihart improves, so would Vaz, so like aging, he can never catch up or pass Vaz on defense.

[Dojji]

Not sure Swihart has the time left to even improve to average defensively. He's got the raw talent, but he should have put it together by now, at least to the point of adequacy. His bat is so far ahead of his glove right now that the best thing for Swihart may very well be to follow the bat and move him off catcher. He's definitely got the athleticism to play a number of positions.

[Bellhorn04]

Not sure Swihart has the time left to even improve to average defensively. He's got the raw talent, but he should have put it together by now, at least to the point of adequacy. His bat is so far ahead of his glove right now that the best thing for Swihart may very well be to follow the bat and move him off catcher. He's definitely got the athleticism to play a number of positions.

 

moonslav has made a great point on this - the numbers suggest that Jason Varitek did not really become a strong defensive catcher until he was about 30. Swihart has time.

[moonslav59]

moonslav has made a great point on this - the numbers suggest that Jason Varitek did not really become a strong defensive catcher until he was about 30. Swihart has time.

 

Probably most catchers don't reach their prime on defense until after age 28 or 30.

 

Vazquez still has time to get even better on defense.

 

Leon turn 28 just before opening day. There's room for him to improve also.

 

My point was that if they all keep improving, even if Swihart improves faster, it is unlikely he will get even to or pass Vaz or Leon on defense within the next 2-3 years. He could, but it is not likely.

He may not need to, if his offense far surpasses theirs.

It would be great, if he could close the gap to a significant extent, making the choice an easier one.

[Kimmi]

I did not apologize. You said Swihart would never be as good a defender as Vasquez.

 

You have not explained how you know this.

 

It's cool though.

 

I know you didn't apologize. It was a joke.

 

I corrected my statement.

 

It is MY OPINION that Swihart will never be as good as Vazquez defensively based on what I've seen, heard, and read about the two catchers.

[Spudboy]

I know you didn't apologize. It was a joke.

 

I corrected my statement.

 

It is MY OPINION that Swihart will never be as good as Vazquez defensively based on what I've seen, heard, and read about the two catchers.

 

Oh.

[sk7326]

The thing is - the scouting sorts who rate Swihart highly is because he should end up being a plus defender at the position ... right sort of build, outstanding athlete.

 

Now he probably won't get to where Vasquez is defensively - especially in terms of framing and such. But his arm is fine and Vasquez was not some sort of game calling savant.

 

There is real reason to believe Vasquez can't really hit - and even if catcher is a defensive position, you need a little.

[jacksonianmarch]

Swihart might be athletic, but catcher is more than athleticism. It's being willing to jump in front of a moving ball without flinching. It's understanding that a bat is going to hit you a few times a year and still catching the ball. It's throwing from an initial crouched position without hesitation to a base that currently isn't occupied. Catcher is the ballsiest position on the field. Swihart may have the innate athleticism to be a great catcher one day, but he doesn't show it in how he carries himself behind the dish.

 

And I know this from my own experience. I played with a former big league defensive catcher. The guy was nuts. He'd block a ball with his face then throw a seed to get an out. He'd stare people down, talk major s*** in the box and just own it. You knew he was our leader even if he wasn't the captain.

[moonslav59]

Offense:

 

Swihart:

.702 A (age 20) 378 PAs)

.794 A+ (age 21) 422 PAs

.843 AA (age 22-23) 387 PAs

.675 AAA (age 23-24) 273 PAs (mostly after his MLB stint in 2015)

.714 MLB (age 23-24) 383 PAs (mostly at age 23)

 

Vazquez:

.782 A (age 19-20) 743 PAs

.756 A+ (age 21) 342 PAs

.731 AA (age 21-22) 481 PAs

.715 AAA (age 23-25) 445 PAs (171 after MLB stint in 2014)

.602 MLB (age 23 & 25) 385 PAs (most at age 23)

 

First, one notices that Vaz got more PAs at just about every level.

Second, Vaz was slightly younger at the earlier farm levels.

Third, Vaz had a better OPS at A and AAA, but he was worse at A+ and AA.

 

They both got most of their MLB PAs at age 23, and Swihart has a .112 OPS advantage in almost identical sample sizes, although 383 & 385 PAs is rather small to judge either one.

 

Vaz has a MLB OPS .132 below his overall minor league OPS of .734.

Swi has a MLB OPS just .044 below his minor league OPS of .758.

 

It's hard to project these two going forward, but looking at their minor league numbers, one might think Vaz might close the gap on offense to some extent, so even if Swihart closes the gap on defense, Vaz may still stay ahead of him overall.

[sk7326]

There is not a ton of evidence Vasquez is ahead of Swihart by any large margin to begin with.

 

Vasquez is definitely a big league, but his range of outcomes is much smaller in both directions than Swihart.

[moonslav59]

There is not a ton of evidence Vasquez is ahead of Swihart by any large margin to begin with.

 

Vasquez is definitely a big league, but his range of outcomes is much smaller in both directions than Swihart.

 

I wouldn't say Vazquez's "range of outcome" on defense is much smaller than Swihart's. Many catchers reach their defensive peak in their 30's.

 

Vaz has a lot of room for continued growth. I guess since Swi started lower, his "range" of growth my theoretically be higher than Vaz's, but I see no evidence to think he will ever pass Vaz and defense, which includes game management skills, blocking wild throws, framing pitches and throwing out runners.

 

On the flip side, I doubt Vaz will ever equal or pass Swihart on offense, but I think the gap might be closer than what many feel it is. The 380 some odd PA sample sizes are not definitive.

 

That being said, I do not think Vaz is way better overall than Swi right now. I don't think Leon is much better than either of the others.

[Kimmi]

Oh.

 

You're welcome.

[SoxHop]

Swihart might be athletic, but catcher is more than athleticism. It's being willing to jump in front of a moving ball without flinching. It's understanding that a bat is going to hit you a few times a year and still catching the ball. It's throwing from an initial crouched position without hesitation to a base that currently isn't occupied. Catcher is the ballsiest position on the field. Swihart may have the innate athleticism to be a great catcher one day, but he doesn't show it in how he carries himself behind the dish.

 

And I know this from my own experience. I played with a former big league defensive catcher. The guy was nuts. He'd block a ball with his face then throw a seed to get an out. He'd stare people down, talk major s*** in the box and just own it. You knew he was our leader even if he wasn't the captain.

 

This is exactly what concerns me about him. He didn't own the game. He looked timid.

 

I'm hoping that with experience he will get that confidence. Not sure though.

 

Good post.

[moonslav59]

This is exactly what concerns me about him. He didn't own the game. He looked timid.

 

I'm hoping that with experience he will get that confidence. Not sure though.

 

Good post.

 

I thought he looked pretty confident in 2015, under extremely tough conditions.

 

He did look timid to start 2016, but the sample size was so tiny, it's hard to get a true feeling about his mentality behind the plate.

[SoxHop]

I thought he looked pretty confident in 2015, under extremely tough conditions.

 

He did look timid to start 2016, but the sample size was so tiny, it's hard to get a true feeling about his mentality behind the plate.

 

I thought the first half of 2015 before he started hitting he looked deer in the headlights, but I don't think I saw that his second half.

 

There is just such a contrast in the way I see Vaszquez runs a game to Swihart, I'd say there is much learning to do.

 

What's strange is I never really notice what Leon is doing behind the plate. Maybe there is a quiet confidence in him.

[moonslav59]

I thought the first half of 2015 before he started hitting he looked deer in the headlights, but I don't think I saw that his second half.

 

I meant behind the plate.

 

I was actually surprised how looked on defense after being rushed to the bigs like that.

 

Yeah, his bat was slow to come around, but I felt he looked poised behind the plate. He wasn't great. Maybe his handling of the staff was less than desirable, but considering the circumstances, I liked what I saw in 2015.

 

I still liked Vaz more at the start of 2016 and still do.

 

[Nick]

I thought the first half of 2015 before he started hitting he looked deer in the headlights, but I don't think I saw that his second half.

 

I meant behind the plate.

 

I was actually surprised how looked on defense after being rushed to the bigs like that.

 

Yeah, his bat was slow to come around, but I felt he looked poised behind the plate. He wasn't great. Maybe his handling of the staff was less than desirable, but considering the circumstances, I liked what I saw in 2015.

 

I still liked Vaz more at the start of 2016 and still do.

 

 

If defense is truly valued behind the plate, then I guess we go with Leon/Vaz tandem. Depending on game situation, Vaz can be pinch hit third time around if it's a winnable, close game. I just hate the thought of Swihart blossoming for another club, and catching.

[S5Dewey]

If I had to take a chance on any two of the three I'd be keeping Vaz & Swihart.

[moonslav59]

If I had to take a chance on any two of the three I'd be keeping Vaz & Swihart.

 

Agreed, but I doubt Leon's trade value warrants trading him this winter.

 

Eventually, one will likely be traded, but waiting, at least until the deadline, makes the most sense. However, if we are in serious trade talks with someone over an impact player, and they are insisting on one of our catchers, then we may end up dealing one before we really know who they are. Let's hope we pick the right one.

[cp176]

If I had to take a chance on any two of the three I'd be keeping Vaz & Swihart.

 

I'm not being sarcastic or snarky(as the kids would say) - I'm just curious. Why not Leon? He is a year older than Vazquez, starting to mature possibly as a decent hitting catcher and defensively there really is extremely little if any difference at all between Vazquez and him. I think that his window to improve is basically as great as either of the other two. Personally, at the present time for sure, he would be the one I would least like to see moved. If either of the other two become more valuable as a catcher, my money would be on Swihart simply because of his potential hitting upside .

[moonslav59]

I'm not being sarcastic or snarky(as the kids would say) - I'm just curious. Why not Leon? He is a year older than Vazquez, starting to mature possibly as a decent hitting catcher and defensively there really is extremely little if any difference at all between Vazquez and him. I think that his window to improve is basically as great as either of the other two. Personally, at the present time for sure, he would be the one I would least like to see moved. If either of the other two become more valuable as a catcher, my money would be on Swihart simply because of his potential hitting upside .

 

I think most of us view Leon's hot streak as a fluke, although he has had some hot streaks in the minors before.

 

Here's a refresher on Sandy's history:

 

Out of 100 catchers with over 200 PAs between 2012 and 2015, Sandy placed #99 in catcher OPS at .483. Nobody had more PAs and a lower OPS as a catcher. Nobody.

 

His SEP .539 OPS and playoff .582 OPS raises concerns about just how much we can count on more hot streaks going forward. He also ended AUG going 5 for 28 (.179) with 1 DBL and 2 BBs. Take the end of AUG, all of SEP and the playoffs, his poor sample size was 124 PAs (which is over half his career PAs).

5 for 28 (end of AUG)

16 for 75 (SEP)

1 for 10 (playoffs)

22 for 113 (.195 BA)

 

He has a .654 minor league OPS in over 2300 PAs.

 

Edited November 15, 2016 by moonslav59

[cp176]

No doubt in my mind that he isn't a .320 hitter going forward and I will not argue statistics with people who people who care a lot more about them then I do. I am just saying that Vazquez really has shown very little with respect to hitting improvement. Leon has shown some growth. Any suggestion that Vazquez is going to improve to the point that he will pass Leon is simply an opinion based on nothing tangible. He may he may not. I would always take the "bird in the hand". Understand though that this opinion comes from a guy who still thinks that batting averages, rbi's, pitcher's win loss records, and stolen bases are still meaningful statistics.

[S5Dewey]

I'm not being sarcastic or snarky(as the kids would say) - I'm just curious. Why not Leon? He is a year older than Vazquez, starting to mature possibly as a decent hitting catcher and defensively there really is extremely little if any difference at all between Vazquez and him. I think that his window to improve is basically as great as either of the other two. Personally, at the present time for sure, he would be the one I would least like to see moved. If either of the other two become more valuable as a catcher, my money would be on Swihart simply because of his potential hitting upside .

 

To take them one at a time, Leon vs. Vazquez: I've always been a big proponent of defense, especially up the middle, and IMO Vaz is currently a better catcher at blocking balls and throwing runners out than is Leon. I wouldn't pretend to get into the area of which pitchers like which catchers better because that's all speculation. Offensively I think that Leon has gone back to being the Leon of old, a catcher who will be around the Mendoza line, which I see as the floor for Vazquez. Hence, Vaz over Leon.

 

Now Leon vs. Swihart: I see Swihart to improve to be at least as good defensively as Leon due to his athleticism, and I don't think many of us would disagree that Swihart may be the best hitter of the three. Hence, Swihart over Leon.

 

And let me say that this isn't a knock on Leon as a catcher. I wouldn't be disappointed to see him be our catcher on opening day - as long as the other two remain in the system someplace. It's just that IMO going forward I'd rather take my chances with Vaz and Swi than either of them + Leon. In a nutshell, I think Leon is what he is and the other two will improve.

 

But what do I know? I'm not overly a stats guy. I just try to blend stats with the eyeball test. Sometimes I'm right and sometimes I'm wrong. Fortunately what I think has no bearing on what DD does.

[oldtimer]

I think most of us view Leon's hot streak as a fluke, although he has had some hot streaks in the minors before.

 

Here's a refresher on Sandy's history:

 

Out of 100 catchers with over 200 PAs between 2012 and 2015, Sandy placed #99 in catcher OPS at .483. Nobody had more PAs and a lower OPS as a catcher. Nobody.

 

His SEP .539 OPS and playoff .582 OPS raises concerns about just how much we can count on more hot streaks going forward. He also ended AUG going 5 for 28 (.179) with 1 DBL and 2 BBs. Take the end of AUG, all of SEP and the playoffs, his poor sample size was 124 PAs (which is over half his career PAs).

5 for 28 (end of AUG)

16 for 75 (SEP)

1 for 10 (playoffs)

22 for 113 (.195 BA)

 

He has a .654 minor league OPS in over 2300 PAs.

 

 

He is very slow of foot. How many double plays did he hit into during the stretch? It seemed like quite a few to me, although I admit that I started to look for that.

[moonslav59]

No doubt in my mind that he isn't a .320 hitter going forward and I will not argue statistics with people who people who care a lot more about them then I do. I am just saying that Vazquez really has shown very little with respect to hitting improvement. Leon has shown some growth. Any suggestion that Vazquez is going to improve to the point that he will pass Leon is simply an opinion based on nothing tangible. He may he may not. I would always take the "bird in the hand". Understand though that this opinion comes from a guy who still thinks that batting averages, rbi's, pitcher's win loss records, and stolen bases are still meaningful statistics.

 

The sample size on all these guys is way too low to make any kind of definitive judgment on the projected offensive skill set.

 

[moonslav59]

He is very slow of foot. How many double plays did he hit into during the stretch?

 

4 in 124 PAs to end the season, counting the PO's.