2016 MLB Draft Thread.

[a700hitter]

I'm sorry guys, I just always assumed that people that actually enjoy watching and following prospects understand the caveat is these guys all have differing degrees of risk associated with them from being raw and far away.

I do, when they get to AA. I don't have the time to follow the Gulf Coast A league.

[Hugh2]

I do, when they get to AA. I don't have the time to follow the Gulf Coast A league.

 

Well I've always thought that you can't seriously consider a guy into your future plans until he is performing in AA but I happen to find everything in between the GCL and Portland interesting as well. From Greenville, to Salem to Lowell. It's pretty nice to be able to go watch a ball game too and pay $15 where it would cost $250 at Fenway and see some guys who are future all stars play, guys who are hungry and not overpaid.

Edited June 17, 2016 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[a700hitter]

Well I've always thought that you can't seriously consider a guy into your future plans until he is performing in AA but I happen to find everything in between the GCL and Portland interesting as well. From Greenville, to Salem to Lowell. It's pretty nice to be able to go watch a ball game too and pay $15 where it would cost $250 at Fenway and see some guys who are future all stars play, guys who are hungry and not overpaid.

I am sure that is fun. Watching the Independent League Long Island Ducks and the Mets A Brooklyn Cyclones are both fun for me. Baseball at almost any level is fun for me to watch, but I am not anticipating seeing any of them in the majors in the near future.

[Jack Flap]

It's "teams believe" he was upset, not directly coming from him. Remember this is a kid who has had every rumor in the world float around about him this spring including that he was dead. When he was drafted one of the first things the life long Red Sox fan said was the money wasn't important

 

If you watch the video of him being drafted his family is genuinely excited. You can hear them talking about how happy they are for him to be staying on the east coast and close to home.

 

One thing to consider too is his agent is very new and inexperienced and rumor has it he's trying to make a name for himself and has rubbed a lot of teams the wrong way. This could easily be a stupid inexperienced agent running damage control from his client running around talking about money not mattering to try and increase his clients payday.

It's also

 

 

Agree...this smells like posturing/damage control by the agent. As noted, the video and the kid's own statements depict someone who was the furthest thing from being "upset" at being drafted by Boston.

 

I'm not used to there being this much drama and intrigue surrounding one of our picks, and I'm just going to have to try to tune out all the rumors and innuendo over the next few weeks. Just get the deal done, and I'm happy.

[Emp9]

I think Groome will sign soon. His agent can't possibly think next year's draft would be a better path to take.

[Kimmi]

It's "teams believe" he was upset, not directly coming from him. Remember this is a kid who has had every rumor in the world float around about him this spring including that he was dead. When he was drafted one of the first things the life long Red Sox fan said was the money wasn't important

 

If you watch the video of him being drafted his family is genuinely excited. You can hear them talking about how happy they are for him to be staying on the east coast and close to home.

 

One thing to consider too is his agent is very new and inexperienced and rumor has it he's trying to make a name for himself and has rubbed a lot of teams the wrong way. This could easily be a stupid inexperienced agent running damage control from his client running around talking about money not mattering to try and increase his clients payday.

It's also

 

I'm sure you all are right and this really is a non issue. At any rate, Groome deserves the benefit of the doubt. It sounds like the Sox will be able to get him signed.

[sk7326]

All of the top choices will sign - yes there might be one that doesn't, but guys walking away from 7 figure checks is generally not smart. For most guys, this is the largest check they will get from baseball.

[Hugh2]

All of the top choices will sign - yes there might be one that doesn't, but guys walking away from 7 figure checks is generally not smart. For most guys, this is the largest check they will get from baseball.

 

In the draft overall or the Sox top choices?

 

Well, I suppose it doesn't matter because the answer is generally the same. Top draft picks almost always sign and I can't remember the last time the Sox failed to sign a top draft pick.

 

There is a level of communication between teams and the guys they draft. I don't think they draft a guy with a top 10 pick unless they are sure they can sign them.

 

Perhaps Groome is different because this is a very unique situation. I don't think anyone as talented as him as even fallen before so perhaps this is a rare case where they draft him regardless of the sign ability because the ceiling is so high?

 

Worst case scenario is they get pick#13 next year in what is supposedly a very deep draft. And they did sign a bunch of top 100 guys past round 10 presumable as back up guys to throw money at if Groome doesn't sign. Still.....I think they will and should sign Groome.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hugh, talented guys like him have fallen before and signed. The issue usually is signability or injury. He fell because of a maturity issue at age 17? That sounds bogus to me. Groome has a TON of leverage. He's going JuCo, so he could come out next yr if he wants to pull a Brady Aiken, but the risk of injury for a pitcher is very real. He is definitely going to want overslot, so the question remains, how much will you give him?

[Hugh2]

Hugh, talented guys like him have fallen before and signed. The issue usually is signability or injury. He fell because of a maturity issue at age 17? That sounds bogus to me. Groome has a TON of leverage. He's going JuCo, so he could come out next yr if he wants to pull a Brady Aiken, but the risk of injury for a pitcher is very real. He is definitely going to want overslot, so the question remains, how much will you give him?

 

I meant no one as talented as him has fallen to the Sox before, at least not in my recent memory. Guys fall all the time though.

 

Reportedly he had a price tag of 4-5 million. With the underslot signings the Sox have already made + the 5% overage they could offer him 4 million right now. Perhaps I'm a bit optimistic but I wouldn't be surprised if they could sign him for even lower than that. 3.6-3.8 million.

 

I'm sure the Sox have a price in mind, and will tell him take it or leave it at the deadline. They aren't going to blow up their draft for the next 2 years for one kid.

[Hugh2]

http://www.soxprospects.com/dh.htm

 

Here is a good link for those following the signings.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hugh, you don't play too much hardball with a guy like Groome, unless something shows up on the physical. You ask him his price, then you try to meet it. He isn't one of those 4 yr commits who is lost for 3 yrs, he is entering JuCo and can return to the draft next yr. I assume the sox got a reasonable number prior to drafting him. As a true top 5 talent, I assume his asking price is around $4 mil. And with how the sox drafted after #1, I assume they should have that kind of money to make it happen

[Hugh2]

Hugh, you don't play too much hardball with a guy like Groome, unless something shows up on the physical. You ask him his price, then you try to meet it. He isn't one of those 4 yr commits who is lost for 3 yrs, he is entering JuCo and can return to the draft next yr. I assume the sox got a reasonable number prior to drafting him. As a true top 5 talent, I assume his asking price is around $4 mil. And with how the sox drafted after #1, I assume they should have that kind of money to make it happen

 

You also don't blow up your whole draft with a guy like Groome, you also don't go over your bonus pool and lose out on top draft picks for the next 2 years just to sign one guy. I have zero doubt the Sox will offer a guy like Groome an over slot deal. But they just don't have the bonus pool money to offer him the $5 million plus he was initially seeking.

[Hugh2]

As of right now the max bonus the Sox could reasonably sign Groome to is 4,065,670. I suspect they will make a run at at least someone past the 10th round like Nick Quintana so if the Sox are going to offer at least 4 million they will have to save some more money and the rest of their top 10 guys certainly do look like slot signings to me. But we shall see.

[Emp9]

A 'What if?' article on Espinoza & the 2016 Draft:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29602

[sk7326]

In the draft overall or the Sox top choices?

 

Well, I suppose it doesn't matter because the answer is generally the same. Top draft picks almost always sign and I can't remember the last time the Sox failed to sign a top draft pick.

 

There is a level of communication between teams and the guys they draft. I don't think they draft a guy with a top 10 pick unless they are sure they can sign them.

 

Perhaps Groome is different because this is a very unique situation. I don't think anyone as talented as him as even fallen before so perhaps this is a rare case where they draft him regardless of the sign ability because the ceiling is so high?

 

Worst case scenario is they get pick#13 next year in what is supposedly a very deep draft. And they did sign a bunch of top 100 guys past round 10 presumable as back up guys to throw money at if Groome doesn't sign. Still.....I think they will and should sign Groome.

 

Groome would risk going back into a better draft year. Now he might leave - but the Sox tend to not lowball. Almost all of the first rounders sign now - those who haven't, it's on the org for being silly.

[Hugh2]

Groome would risk going back into a better draft year. Now he might leave - but the Sox tend to not lowball. Almost all of the first rounders sign now - those who haven't, it's on the org for being silly.

 

 

Well, if the Sox move around money and offer him above slot it's really NOT on them if he were to ask for money that would put them above the 5%

 

Reportedly 5th rounder Mike Shawaryn is asking for above slot, I'm thinking if anything this could screw up their offer to Groome. They moved enough money around to easily offer 4-4.1 million but if they have to go above slot for Shawaryn I don't know what they do. Reportedly Groome is asking (well his agent is) 4.4 from the Sox.

 

Unless they are offering him below slot and not budging, it's really not on them. Worst case scenario is they get the #13 pick and much more pool money in a deeper draft. I want Groome, that wouldn't be the end of the world.

[moonslav59]

Not really related to the draft, but Dubon and Beeks were promoted to AA.

 

[mvp 78]

Not really related to the draft, but Dubon and Beeks were promoted to AA.

 

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17481-2016-Prospects-Thread

[Emp9]

A's just signed AJ Puk, 6th overall $4,069,200, slot value of that pick.

[Jack Flap]

Red Sox and Jason Groome are "in a stare down" according to Jon Heyman - $3.5 million offer on the table, but he seems to be holding out for a bit more. Not exactly unusual or alarming at this point, and as the article notes, the team still has room to up its offer. I still think he signs by the Friday deadline.

 

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/al/boston-red-sox/jason-groome-stare-offer-table/

[Bellhorn04]

Red Sox and Jason Groome are "in a stare down" according to Jon Heyman - $3.5 million offer on the table, but he seems to be holding out for a bit more. Not exactly unusual or alarming at this point, and as the article notes, the team still has room to up its offer. I still think he signs by the Friday deadline.

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/al/boston-red-sox/jason-groome-stare-offer-table/

 

Be right, my friend, be right.

[mvp 78]

The worst that can happen is that they miss out on Groome and get the 13th pick in a stacked draft next year. Groome might fall even further next year.

[Kimmi]

Red Sox and Jason Groome are "in a stare down" according to Jon Heyman - $3.5 million offer on the table, but he seems to be holding out for a bit more. Not exactly unusual or alarming at this point, and as the article notes, the team still has room to up its offer. I still think he signs by the Friday deadline.

 

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/al/boston-red-sox/jason-groome-stare-offer-table/

 

I can't imagine the Sox letting the kid walk over $400,00 or so. I also can't imagine a 17 year old kid turning down that kind of money. I think it will get done, but I've been wrong before.

[mvp 78]

I can't imagine the Sox letting the kid walk over $400,00 or so. I also can't imagine a 17 year old kid turning down that kind of money. I think it will get done, but I've been wrong before.

 

You turn it down if you think you deserve more. If he thinks it's worth the risk to sit out a year, he'll turn it down. It may be the only payday he gets (unforeseen injury and whatnot).

[Hugh2]

The worst that can happen is that they miss out on Groome and get the 13th pick in a stacked draft next year. Groome might fall even further next year.

 

That makes it sound a lot nicer than it is, even in a stacked draft a player as talented as Groome rarely falls. Also, a lot can happen from now until then. They say it is expected to be stacked but that can change in a hurry. We don't really know exactly how next years draft will look.

 

Also, we're hearing about kids who may have signed past round 10 for 150-200K that were told by the Sox to wait. A lot of them have come out and re-affirmed their college commitments because they were tired of waiting on the Sox.

 

The 13th pick is nice consolation prize, but it is 100% optimal that the Sox get Groome signed.

[sk7326]

Red Sox and Jason Groome are "in a stare down" according to Jon Heyman - $3.5 million offer on the table, but he seems to be holding out for a bit more. Not exactly unusual or alarming at this point, and as the article notes, the team still has room to up its offer. I still think he signs by the Friday deadline.

 

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/al/boston-red-sox/jason-groome-stare-offer-table/

 

They almost always sign - especially with the current rules. If he doesn't sign - it's the Red Sox fault - his demands were no secret. He will get signed.

[a700hitter]

They almost always sign - especially with the current rules. If he doesn't sign - it's the Red Sox fault - his demands were no secret. He will get signed.

But there will be excuses nonetheless.

[Hugh2]

3.5 million is well over the Sox slot and about 1/2 their total pool money. If Groome turns that down you can count on one hand how many bonuses larger than that were turned down in the top 10 of the MLB draft. It's not ALL the Sox fault if he refuses to sign. With that said, I'm sure the Sox will budge, If Groome signs they have little leverage elsewhere and that is probably why Dalbec and Shawaryn have not signed either. I'd be willing to bet the Sox know what they are going to sign those guys for but don't want to tip their hand. If they got both those guys for appx slot they can easily give Groome 4-4.2 but have nothing left to sign anyone after the 10th. Odds are they'd really like to sign someone like Nick Quintana as well.

 

I could be completely off base here, and the number could easily be 4-4.1 million but I bet they settle for somewhere between 3.75-3.8 million. Book it!

[Hugh2]

They almost always sign - especially with the current rules. If he doesn't sign - it's the Red Sox fault - his demands were no secret. He will get signed.

 

His demands were no secret and that might be why a lot of teams passed on him among other reasons. If you're asking for 4-5 million it's very realistic with a top 3 pick but once you fall you lose some of your leverage. Any agent knows that, you have to offer a player at least 40% of the slot bonus in the top 10 rounds to receive draft pick compensation if they refuse to sign. There is zero way any team could ever draft a guy like Groome and sign him to that kind of money unless they had top 3 money and no team will, nor have they ever blown up their entire draft for one guy.

 

The exception to the rule would be a team who has a higher bonus pool due to multiple picks in the first round, like San Diego did this year, but they passed on Groome.

 

The kid and his agent have some leverage, but so do the Sox. Odds are they will get a deal done, both sides are posturing which is normal.