Christian Vazquez

[moonslav59]

I think Swihart should get all the time he needs to develop his defensive catching skills, but I don't think it would hurt to let him start taking a few grounders at 3B after he's done with practice.

[moonslav59]

Swihart did an admirable job for us in 2015. I am in no way criticizing him for that season. That said, playing in the big leagues is a little different than playing in AAA in terms of working on development, isn't it? If there are areas of weakness, they can be addressed and focused on easier at the AAA level. I think being rushed up in 2015 slowed his development.

 

Could be true, but I do think being at the big league level earlier than planned should not have been a major stunting aspect of his development, especially since he did pretty good in 2015.

 

Usually rushing a prospect only backfires when he sucks and loses confidence.

 

While I don't disagree with your position, I think he got great coaching at the big league level in 2015 and seemed to improve as the season went on. I'm sure they helped him focus on his highest need areas, and put no offensive pressure on him.

 

2016 was an entirely different situation. They lost faith quickly and then were pressed into switching him to LF out of team needs.

[Fisk]

They gave him about 1 week last year and sent him out to Pawtucket, probably an overreaction move because of the starters having rough starts. They also had a major need in LF and probably knew Swihart could adapt quickly, with the bat to be an asset at the position.

[harmony]

Blake Swihart's parents stand by him amid the recent report:

 

https://www.facebook.com/arlan.swihart.batman?pnref=lhc

[moonslav59]

They gave him about 1 week last year and sent him out to Pawtucket, probably an overreaction move because of the starters having rough starts. They also had a major need in LF and probably knew Swihart could adapt quickly, with the bat to be an asset at the position.

 

Makes me wonder if the need in LF was more of the reason than Swihart's troubles on defense behind the plate.

 

Maybe the readiness of Vazquez made LF a greater need than catcher.

[Fisk]

Makes me wonder if the need in LF was more of the reason than Swihart's troubles on defense behind the plate.

 

Maybe the readiness of Vazquez made LF a greater need than catcher.

 

The need in left field was definitely behind the move, and the starters struggling along with Vasquez looking ready helped move it along.

[moonslav59]

The need in left field was definitely behind the move, and the starters struggling along with Vasquez looking ready helped move it along.

 

So, what's changed this year, assuming a need arises?

 

I say nothing. Swihart will plug a hole, if needed. Hopefully, none will open up, and Swihart will be given a long look as a catcher in AAA this year, and maybe we can determine where he best fits in as a result.

[harmony]

From Thursday's FanGraphs chat with columnist Dan Szymborski, who developed the ZiPS projections:

harmony

2:10

ZiPS projects Boston catcher Blake Swihart with a 2017 WAR of a negative 0.1 in 342 plate appearances. ZiPS and other projections appear to be inconsistent with the two years of Swihart hype. What gives?

 

Dan Szymborski

2:11

His post-2014 play hasn't lived up tot the Swihart hype.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-22317/

Edited February 23, 2017 by harmony

[moonslav59]

From Thursday's FanGraphs chat with columnist Dan Szymborski, who does the ZiPS projections:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-22317/

 

Well, 2015 comes after 2014 and he put up a 1.4 WAR in about half a season with Boston.

 

I'm not sure how that hurts his 2017 projections.

 

2016 was a mess, but he was hurt for much of it.

 

There is certainly still plenty of reason to still believe in at least some or much of the "hype".

[FredLynn]

From Thursday's FanGraphs chat with columnist Dan Szymborski, who does the ZiPS projections:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-22317/

 

I stole the following post from a different forum. Its not that Swihart is Babe Ruth, but given David Ortiz and his 127 RBIs and other contributions on offense is gone, we need to play guys who can hit the baseball:

 

"Christian Vasquez in 557 PAs has a career OPS+ of 62 with a BA of .233 with an OPS of .602.

 

Sandy Leon in 548 PAs has a career OPS+ of 81 with a BA of .254 with an OPS of .681-and these numbers are skewed by a brief flash in the pan last year.

 

None of these guys is David Ortiz, but Swihart is, offensively, the best of the lot. And with Sandoval and Moreland in the lineup, we need all the offense we can get."

[Kimmi]

I stole the following post from a different forum. Its not that Swihart is Babe Ruth, but given David Ortiz and his 127 RBIs and other contributions on offense is gone, we need to play guys who can hit the baseball:

 

"Christian Vasquez in 557 PAs has a career OPS+ of 62 with a BA of .233 with an OPS of .602.

 

Sandy Leon in 548 PAs has a career OPS+ of 81 with a BA of .254 with an OPS of .681-and these numbers are skewed by a brief flash in the pan last year.

 

None of these guys is David Ortiz, but Swihart is, offensively, the best of the lot. And with Sandoval and Moreland in the lineup, we need all the offense we can get."

 

Our offense will be fine. Sandoval has a decent chance of providing more offense than we got from our 3B last year.

 

Putting Swihart behind the plate to improve our offense, at the expense of our defense, would be a mistake IMO.

[FredLynn]

Our offense will be fine. Sandoval has a decent chance of providing more offense than we got from our 3B last year.

 

Putting Swihart behind the plate to improve our offense, at the expense of our defense, would be a mistake IMO.

 

I sincerely hope you are right about Sandoval, but note that his OPS+ has gone down every year since 2011. In 2015 he was down to 75 for an OPS+. From my point of view there is little reason to expect that he will improve much. And Moreland at 1B? He is, in effect, replacing Ortiz.

We shall see.......

[Kimmi]

I sincerely hope you are right about Sandoval, but note that his OPS+ has gone down every year since 2011. In 2015 he was down to 75 for an OPS+. From my point of view there is little reason to expect that he will improve much. And Moreland at 1B? He is, in effect, replacing Ortiz.

We shall see.......

 

Our 3rd basemen last year were dead last offensively out of all 30 teams. Their combined OPS was .685 and their combined wOBA was .296. Pablo should be able to top that.

 

Moreland is not supposed to replace Papi. Our offense will not be as good as it was last year, but it will still be very good. I am not concerned about it.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I sincerely hope you are right about Sandoval, but note that his OPS+ has gone down every year since 2011. In 2015 he was down to 75 for an OPS+. From my point of view there is little reason to expect that he will improve much. And Moreland at 1B? He is, in effect, replacing Ortiz.

We shall see.......

 

The Sox scored 100 more runs than anyone else last year and they should see an improvement in left and at 3rd offensively, regardless of how well Sandoval does. If he struggles badly, he'll be replaced. The defense and starting pitching should be significantly better and I have a feeling people are going to like Mitch Moreland. He's a "dirt dog" type, who has a swing that should play well at Fenway, and never understimate the importance of a guy who can play D at first. A guy like that makes the entire infield that much better. Modern stats prove it.

[Fisk]

Our 3rd basemen last year were dead last offensively out of all 30 teams. Their combined OPS was .685 and their combined wOBA was .296. Pablo should be able to top that.

 

Moreland is not supposed to replace Papi. Our offense will not be as good as it was last year, but it will still be very good. I am not concerned about it.

 

Shaw was terrible the second half, think Pablo will improve on those numbers easily.

[Fisk]

From Thursday's FanGraphs chat with columnist Dan Szymborski, who developed the ZiPS projections:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-22317/

 

You have a weird infatuation with Swihart.

[moonslav59]

You have a weird infatuation with Swihart.

 

He's just mad about us being so high on someone ZIPs and Co. aren't high on.

[Fisk]

He's just mad about us being so high on someone ZIPs and Co. aren't high on.

 

Agree

[notin]

Our 3rd basemen last year were dead last offensively out of all 30 teams. Their combined OPS was .685 and their combined wOBA was .296. Pablo should be able to top that.

 

Moreland is not supposed to replace Papi. Our offense will not be as good as it was last year, but it will still be very good. I am not concerned about it.

 

At the very least, we know he can't come in 31st....

[notin]

He's just mad about us being so high on someone ZIPs and Co. aren't high on.

 

ZIPS and Steamer are weak. The WAPM is definitive. (Although sometimes reality is inaccurate.)

[moonslav59]

ZIPS and Steamer are weak. The WAPM is definitive. (Although sometimes reality is inaccurate.)

 

What's WAPM have for Beni's OPS this year?

 

What would Swihart's WAR be, if he started as a catcher 140 games?

[harmony]

ZIPS and Steamer are weak. The WAPM is definitive. (Although sometimes reality is inaccurate.)

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/1/8/14189138/pecota-zips-steamer-marcel-projection-systems-graded

[SoxnCycles]

Our 3rd basemen last year were dead last offensively out of all 30 teams. Their combined OPS was .685 and their combined wOBA was .296. Pablo should be able to top that.

 

Moreland is not supposed to replace Papi. Our offense will not be as good as it was last year, but it will still be very good. I am not concerned about it.

 

Agree.

Nobody is replacing Papi.

 

With the addition of Sale, they don't have to.

They now have the pitching to shut down a lot of opposing offenses.

[moonslav59]

Agree.

Nobody is replacing Papi.

 

With the addition of Sale, they don't have to.

They now have the pitching to shut down a lot of opposing offenses.

 

Sale will likely face over 750 batters this year. That's more than the amount of Papi PAs we need to fill.

 

Our defense should be better, too.

 

If Young and others can stay healthy, and full years from Beni, Pom, Wright, ERod, Kelly and others can help put a dent in the loss of the great one- Sir David Ortiz.

[Kimmi]

The Sox scored 100 more runs than anyone else last year and they should see an improvement in left and at 3rd offensively, regardless of how well Sandoval does. If he struggles badly, he'll be replaced. The defense and starting pitching should be significantly better and I have a feeling people are going to like Mitch Moreland. He's a "dirt dog" type, who has a swing that should play well at Fenway, and never understimate the importance of a guy who can play D at first. A guy like that makes the entire infield that much better. Modern stats prove it.

 

I fully endorse this post.

[Kimmi]

Shaw was terrible the second half, think Pablo will improve on those numbers easily.

 

I agree. I think some people forget how bad Shaw was after July, and also in June.

[Kimmi]

Agree.

Nobody is replacing Papi.

 

With the addition of Sale, they don't have to.

They now have the pitching to shut down a lot of opposing offenses.

 

Exactly. Even without the addition of Sale, I think our team could have withstood the loss of Papi. We may not be the best offense in the league anymore, but we should still be top 3.

[cp176]

Good luck to Vazquez for sure but judging by the latest comments from DD, Swihart still might be the guy they expect to be the catcher of the future for the Sox. I continue to think that they just aren't completely sold on either Leon or Vazquez's ability to get it done on a regular basis. This might be just a bridge year to get to Swihart.

[Fisk]

Good luck to Vazquez for sure but judging by the latest comments from DD, Swihart still might be the guy they expect to be the catcher of the future for the Sox. I continue to think that they just aren't completely sold on either Leon or Vazquez's ability to get it done on a regular basis. This might be just a bridge year to get to Swihart.

 

Peter Abraham reported yesterday that Vazquez's arm strength is back to being above average, but might never be where it was in 14. To me that does not bode well for him.

[S5Dewey]

Peter Abraham reported yesterday that Vazquez's arm strength is back to being above average, but might never be where it was in 14. To me that does not bode well for him.

 

I'm not disputing that... but IIRC it isn't uncommon for a pitcher to come back from TJ surgery with better arm strength than before.

 

But in a related thought...

TJ surgery is often the result of bad mechanics. Has anyone heard or observed a pitcher's mechanics changing after TJ surgery? Or do they just let him keep doing the same mechanics that caused the need for the surgery?